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Europe

Europe after Covid 19: How €750 billion could reboot the EU

Video, July 6, 2020 - In the press
By Anne-Laure Delatte

00:41:54

French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel might well hold the future of Europe in their hands. Or maybe more accurately in their cheque books. Round table with Anne-Laure Delatte, Lorenzo Marsili, Daniel Stelter, and Olaf Wientzek, on France 24 on 30 june 2020.

Recent drug shortages in Europe overshadow half a century of trade surpluses

Post, June 2, 2020
By Pierre Cotterlaz, Guillaume Gaulier, Aude Sztulman, Deniz Ünal

The Covid-19 pandemic has revealed the vulnerability of the Old continent to drug-supply disruption. Europe nevertheless remains, by far, the leader in the global trade of pharmaceutical products. Article published in The Conversation on May 31, 2020

Assessing the cost of uncertainty created by Brexit

Post, December 3, 2019
By Fabien Tripier

More than three years after the Brexit referendum, Brexit is still not settled, but the uncertainty remains. This long period of uncertainty has cost around half a point of economic growth per year since 2016 for the UK’s economy, which is equivalent to an annual loss of £16 billion.

EU competition policy should not be sacrificed but trade policy should be strengthened

Post, July 2, 2019
By Sébastien Jean, Anne Perrot, Thomas Philippon

Europe’s competition policy has successfully contained the rise in concentration and excess profits, and the EU should not follow the US in weakening its approach. Instead, the EU needs to strengthen its trade policy to be more assertive on reciprocity in market access and control of industrial subsidies.

Addressing macroeconomic imbalances within the euro area: still a long road ahead

Post, April 15, 2019
By Virginie Coudert, Cécile Couharde, Carl Grekou, Valérie Mignon

The shock caused by the 2007-08 financial collapse, followed by the European sovereign debt crisis, has raised new doubts about the ability of the single currency to work well in a region with huge economic and political diversity. It has also given a new dimension to this debate by highlighting the building-up of unsustainable macroeconomic imbalances within the European Monetary Union (EMU).

Sovereign risk and asset market dynamics in the euro area

Post, January 14, 2019
By Erica Perego

Stocks and sovereign bonds are among the most used financial products and the correlation between stock and bond returns corresponds to a typically time-varying pattern reflecting changes in investors' decisions.

Fixing the euro needs to go beyond economics

Post, October 29, 2018
By Anne-Laure Delatte

The agenda to fix the euro is hampered by conflicting national interests. Creditor countries demand fiscal house cleaning and debtor countries ask for risk sharing. There is currently a political deadlock about how the adjustment burden should be distributed, perpetuating a state of vulnerability that is not in the collective interest of euro area members. This column, part of the Vox debate on euro area reform, argues that overcoming this coordination failure requires reforming the political governance of the EU, rather than just its economic governance.
This post has been first published on VoxEU.

France and Europe in Globalization

Video, April 12, 2018
By CEPII

06:00:00

On the occasion of its 40th anniversary, three panel discussions, CEPII brought together experts, foreign and French, decision-makers and academics to discuss the major challenges that France and Europe are facing ten years after the crisis and the deep transformation of the international economic relationships.
See videos et presentations.

Japan-Europe, the unnoticed megadeal

Post, October 26, 2017
By Sébastien Jean

Trade between Japan and the EU is not a big deal in world trade, barely more than 1%. Their Economic Partnership Agreement can nevertheless be very influential because, jointly, they are a party in more than 40% of world trade, and much more in innovative sectors.

Should we fear the Brexit uncertainty?
IMF versus Krugman

Post, August 19, 2016
By Stéphane Lhuissier, Fabien Tripier

IMF cuts global growth forecasts following Brexit vote. Paul Krugman has taken a different point of view by arguing there is no reason to worry in the immediate future. This opposition reflects clearly two different opinions on the short-term consequences of uncertainty.

In search of a liquid asset for European financial markets

Post, July 15, 2016
By Francesco Molteni

European financial markets face a shortage of liquid assets. New regulations increase banks’ demand for liquid securities, mainly sovereign bonds, but the European fiscal rules constrain the supply of public debt. Further, the QE is draining bonds from the market. Some proposed forms of “Eurobonds” or new debt securities issued by European supranational organizations could solve this problem.

Business Cycles in Europe since 1970

Post, December 10, 2015
By Stéphane Lhuissier

This column reports the nature and the amplitude of economic cycles in the Euro area since 1970, with a focus on the role of financial factors in generating these cycles.

Was the IMF right to come to the rescue of Greece in 2010?

Post, June 30, 2015
By Christophe Destais

Back in 2010, the Eurozone countries insisted a lot that the IMF provides exceptional financing to Greece. They will be duly reminded when the reckoning moment has come.

Structural reforms: why did the term become so "toxic"?

Post, May 29, 2015
By Sophie Piton

From May 21 to May 23, the ECB organized its 2nd annual forum on Central banking. Mario Draghi's inaugural speech, as well as discussions on May 23rd, focused mainly on the need for structural reforms to strengthen growth in Europe.

Europe is trapped by its competitiveness obsession

Post, April 22, 2015
By Sébastien Jean

While European external surpluses are accumulating and domestic demand is slacking, insisting on improving the Union’s external competitiveness, as some in the Commission are presently doing, is paradoxical. For Europe, the paramount risk is not losing its competitiveness. It is not recovering cohesion and growth.

Quantitative Easing: were markets surprised?

Post, January 24, 2015
By Stéphane Lhuissier

The ECB has announced that it will launch in March its first round of quantitative easing. The announcement contains some good and bad surprises: the size of the ECB's plan is gigantic, while the Central Bank was unclear about the Greek issue. How was this announcement perceived by markets?

ECB equity purchases: too risky, really?

Post, January 9, 2015
By Urszula Szczerbowicz, Natacha Valla

Instead of buying sovereign debt, the ECB could broaden further its purchases to include equity of all sorts. Fuelling an equity bubble is no worse than fuelling a bond one. It can be mitigated by intervening secretly and including non listed securities. Inhibitions to take risk should be lifted.

Long live the Juncker Plan!

Post, December 21, 2014
By Natacha Valla

The long awaited Juncker Plan for investment in Europe has arrived a few weeks ago. Beyond the creation of a Strategic Fund, the Plan as a whole has disappointed: not adamant enough to eliminate the deep obstacles to cross-border investment, and opaque in generating the “List” of projects to be financed. Yet, even imperfectly, Europe has now done its homework.

Purchases of sovereign bonds: the ECB confronted with the heterogeneity of the Euro area

Post, December 4, 2014
By Urszula Szczerbowicz

The ECB has confirmed its determination to counter the risk of deflation in the eurozone by evoking the possibility of sovereign bond purchases, but is confronted once again with the heterogeneity of the area. The need for compromise could jeopardize the effectiveness of its action.

The delusion of State guarantees

Post, October 3, 2014
By Natacha Valla

European policymakers are currently busy addressing two issues: moribund investment and banks on extended sick leave. Some observers might be tempted to segregate these issues. While investment would be in the remit of States, the financial health of our economies would be under the responsibility of the ECB alone.

Reforming the European Investment Bank: a New Architecture for Public Investment in Europe

Post, July 30, 2014
By Natacha Valla

Some five years after the severe recession of 2009, private sector investment in Europe is still dangerously sluggish. And public investment has been cut further, reinforcing a long term downward trend. At a mere 2% of GDP, it has halved over thirty years.

The euro area urgently needs a Federal Investment Fund (not a budget)

Post, April 9, 2014
By Natacha Valla

The decline in investment rates in the euro area following the global financial crisis has been sharp. And it looks as though it will not reverse significantly. Rebooting investment and channeling investable funds to the right places on the continent is therefore a major challenge for policy makers.

The French should care about Karlsruhe

Post, February 12, 2014
By Natacha Valla

Strikingly, the debate about the Feb 7 ruling of the German Constitutional Court against the ECB’s flagship OMT programme has gone almost unnoticed in France. This is wrong. The French should care about it.

Is the Eurozone really a monetary union? (2/2)

Post, July 3, 2013
By Christophe Destais

In the United States, the regional Federal Reserve Banks (FRBs) are de facto subsidiaries of the central Federal Reserve Board. The claims and the debts between FRBs are settled through a transfer of assets which is actually a simple accounting arrangement.

Is the Eurozone really a monetary union? (1/2)

Post, July 1, 2013
By Christophe Destais

Central banks in the Eurozone have accumulated claims and debts between themselves. These "Target 2 imbalances" substituted for the outstanding between private entities, in particular for the interbank loans and there is no mechanism to settle them. Should the Eurozone burst, they would become due.

Ending the euro area crisis: crossing the river by feeling the stones

Post, December 13, 2012
By Benjamin Carton, Christophe Destais, Sophie Piton, Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Yves-Emmanuel Bara

Europeans face a fourfold crisis: a sovereign debt crisis, a banking crisis, a competitiveness crisis and a crisis of governance. CEPII's first Policy Paper highlight the key issues that need to be addressed for a comprehensive solution to be found.

Six pack: the case for a simplified scoreboard

Post, November 14, 2012
By Laurence Nayman, Sophie Piton, Agnès Bénassy-Quéré

In December 2011, the ‘six pack’ introduced a new surveillance procedure of macroeconomic imbalances at the European level. However, the ten indicators used for the early warning of imbalances do not seem much more relevant than the simple indicator of the current account balance.

Single bells: single market, single currency, single supervisor, single resolution mechanism

Post, September 14, 2012
By Olena Havrylchyk

On 12 of September, the European Commission (EC) has unveiled its proposal that shifts banking supervision to the European level, giving sweeping supervisory powers to the ECB.

Internal devaluation: nothing but sweat and tears?

Post, August 7, 2012
By Sophie Piton, Yves-Emmanuel Bara

The Lettre du CEPII No. 324 shows that internal devaluation strategies in Latvia and in Ireland produced only limited adjustments at the price of considerable social costs.

Eurobonds: a way to act swiftly

Post, June 5, 2012
By Agnès Bénassy-Quéré

The Eurozone is facing three intertwined and mutually reinforcing crises: a sovereign debt glut, banks’ financial fragility and dampened growth prospects. Further fiscal and political integration seems to be the only way to address these issues.

Trade liberalization in the services sectors: a promising competitiveness policy for European countries

Post, April 19, 2012
By Cristina Mitaritonna, Matthieu Crozet

In France, like in most Western European countries, the debate on competitiveness is entirely focused on manufacturing industries. The case of services sectors remains in the shadows, even though they undoubtedly are an important source of employment and constitute a clear comparative advantage.

Don’t let the Eurozone crisis go East

Post, April 4, 2012
By Asia-Europe Economic Forum

The eurozone crisis presents a risk for Asian economies. Mainly, the crisis could spread through trade and various financial channels.Yet, economic impact of spillovers is not the only reason why Asia has a specific interest in the survival of the euro.

The fate of Europe. Collapse or federation.

Audio, January 18, 2012
By Michel Aglietta

In his new book, Michel Aglietta explains how Europe reached a critical point and suggests solutions to the challenges met by the eurozone.

Any progress towards the Single Market could improve substantially EU growth path for the years to come

Post, January 15, 2012
By CEPII

The European Union has always relied first and foremost on a gradual economic integration process. The current euro-zone crisis casts serious doubts on the benefits of such integration. Assessing its economic benefits is therefore central to measuring the overall benefits the European Union (EU) provides to its citizens.

The international monetary system needs the euro

Post, January 12, 2012
By Agnès Bénassy-Quéré

With the survival of the euro area at stake, and the reform of the international monetary system no longer a priority of the G20 presidency, it may seem strange to call for an increased international role of the euro.

The Twin Sovereign and Banking Crisis in the Euro Area

Post, December 19, 2011
By Michel Aglietta

Europe’s banking system has been in a continuous stage of systemic fragility since the beginning of the financial crisis in 2007-08. The present phase is a two-way process of sovereign and banking crises feeding one another.

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