A1 - Benjamin Carton
A1 - Karine Hervé
TI - Désajustements des taux de change effectifs réels dans la zone euro
IS - 319
T3 - La lettre du CEPII
KW - Exchange Rates
KW - Current Account Adjustment
KW - Euro Area
N2 - The resolution of the eurozone crisis requires, amongst other things, successful relative price adjustments between member states. We estimate here the scale of the adjustments needed using fundamental equilibrium exchange rates. We suggest two scenarios of adjustments, depending on the levels of inflation tolerated in surplus countries and at the Euro Area level. If the ECB doesn’t temporarily increase its inflation objective, Portugal and Greece will be unable to significantly reduce their overvaluation by the end of the decade.

ER -