CEPII, Recherche et Expertise sur l'economie mondiale
Finance and Growth: From the Business Cycle to the Long Run

Thomas Grjebine
Fabien Tripier

 Highlights :
  • We propose a new methodology to estimate the long-run elasticity between growth and finance.
  • The contemporaneous relationship between financial booms and economic growth is positive for a complete growth cycle, even if high financial growth makes recessions more severe.
  • Financial booms have however a persistent effect detrimental to subsequent cycles, which is referred as a hysteresis phenomenon.
  • We define the threshold of financial development above which the persistent effect dominates the contemporaneous effect.
  • The total effect of finance on growth is negative as this threshold is exceeded in our panel of economies.

 Abstract :
This paper proposes a new methodology to assess the long-run relationship between economic and financial growth. By linking long-run growth to the properties of business cycles, this methodology offers a better understanding of the channels through which finance can impact long-term growth. We first define the direct elasticity between financial and economic growth to measure the contemporaneous effect of financial growth. If financial booms make recessions more severe, losses of growth during recessions are low when compared with growth supplements during expansions. Beyond this contemporaneous effect of financial booms, we identify a persistent effect of financial growth detrimental to subsequent cycles, which is referred as a hysteresis phenomenon. Then, financial and economic growth rates are positively correlated only up to a certain threshold of financial activity. In our panel of economies, the average level of financial activity is well above this threshold, implying that the total elasticity between finance and growth is negative in the long run.

 Keywords : Growth | Business Cycles | Hysteresis | Financial Cycles | Growth Cycles

 JEL : E32, E44
CEPII Working Paper
N°2016-28, December 2016

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