CEPII, Recherche et Expertise sur l'economie mondiale
COVID-Induced Sovereign Risk in the Euro Area: When Did the ECB Stop the Contagion?


Aymeric Ortmans
Fabien Tripier

 Points clés :
  • How ECB's monetary policy interventions have eliminated European sovereign risk induced by the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak?
  • Up to March 9, the occurrence of 10 new confirmed cases per million people were accompanied by an immediate and persistent increase in the 10-years sovereign bond spreads, reaching 0.35 percentage point in 5 days
  • Evidence suggests that the ECB's press conference on March 12 has stopped the COVID-19 contagion in sovereign debt markets despite the "we are not here to close spreads" controversy.
  • A counterfactual shows that without the shift in the sensitivity of sovereign bond markets to COVID-19, spreads would have surged to 4.2% in France, 12.5% in Spain, and 19.5% in Italy by March 18.

 Résumé :
This paper studies how the announcement of the ECB’s monetary policies stopped the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic to the European sovereign debt market. We show that up to March 9, the occurrence of new cases in euro area countries had a sizeable and persistent effect on 10-year sovereign bond spreads relative to Germany: 10 new confirmed cases per million people were accompanied by an immediate spread increase of 0.03 percentage points (ppt) that lasted 5 days, for a total increase of 0.35 ppt. For periods afterwards,the effect falls to near zero and is not significant. We interpret this change as an indicator of the success of the ECB’s March 12 press conference, despite the “we are not here to close spreads” controversy. Our results hold for the stock market, providing further evidence of the effectiveness of the ECB’s March 12 announcements in stopping the financial turmoil. A counterfactual analysis shows that without the shift in the sensitivity of sovereign bond markets to COVID-19, spreads would have surged to 4.2% in France, 12.5% in Spain, and 19.5% in Italy by March 18, when the ECB’s Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme was finally announced


 Mots-clés : COVID-19 | European Central Bank | Sovereign debt | Monetary policy | Local projections

 JEL : E52, E58, E65, H63
CEPII Working Paper
N°2020-11, October 2020

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