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The CEPII Newsletter       
January 2018        

The French edition is slightly different as it also includes material available in French only  

Europe Monnaie & Finance Trade & Globalization Migrations Economic Policy Emerging Economies Competitivness & Growth Environment & Natural Ressources

Uncertainty Fluctuations: Measures, Effects and Macroeconomic Policy Challenges

Economic policy uncertainty has been at the heart of recent major uncertainty shocks that have affected the global economy, ranging from suspicions of currency manipulation in China to the Brexit situation, through unexpected political elections outcomes.This Policy Brief presents the key challenges raised by this phenomena: How to measure uncertainty? Through which channels does uncertainty impact the economy? What are the implications of uncertainty for policy makers?
Laurent Ferrara, Stéphane Lhuissier & Fabien Tripier

2018 will mark the 40th anniversary of the creation of CEPII. 40 years scrutinizing the world economy to detect changes, understand mechanisms, identify the logic - and sometimes its absence. Such work is more useful than ever in the current context: while the common challenges are ever more acute, such as climate change and growing economic interdependencies, which has sometimes appeared as an international order, or at least a multilateral approach, seems to crack at an accelerated speed. Analyzing these trends and their issues is a challenge. But at age 40, are we not in the prime of life? The entire CEPII team joins me in presenting you our best wishes for 2018.
Sébastien Jean


Are State-Contingent Sovereign Bonds the Solution to Avoid Government Debt Crisis?

A global conversation on sovereign GDP-linked bonds is slowly developping. The latter would limit the issuers’ debt-service obligations in time of slow or negative growth and therefore reduce the likelihood of debt crises and defaults. Investors would be made more responsible when it comes to lending money to a sovereign. These benefits would justify a global policy initiative to promote the idea and kickstart the market. However, many technical issues -which the paper list- are still to be resolved.
Christophe Destais


ISSN: 1255-7072
Editorial Director : Antoine Bouët
Managing Editor : Dominique Pianelli