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The CEPII Newsletter       
February 2022        

The French edition is slightly different as it also includes material available in French only  

Europe Monnaie & Finance Trade & Globalization Migrations Economic Policy Emerging Economies Competitivness & Growth Environment & Natural Ressources

Fewer Planes Means Less Trade

With the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, international air traffic collapsed. For some European countries, air transport is the main mode of transport for their exports. Despite its higher cost, air transport is also a widely used mode of transport for products with a high value relative to their weight, such as precious stones, electronic components and pharmaceuticals. The same is true for intermediate products that are at the heart of global value chains. Yet, the more air links countries have with each other, the more they trade: the share of overall trade between two countries that have more than 103 air links between them is 9% higher than that of countries that share no direct air links; and for trade that is transported by air alone this figure rises to 15%. In the case of goods that are not shipped by air, the effect is also substantial (about 8%) because business travel supports trade. If travel restrictions continue, or if the air transport sector is included in international commitments to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, air transport could remain disrupted and, with it, international trade. Diego Botero Garcia, Ariell ReshefCamilo Umana Dajud


EQCHANGE annual assessment 2021: an overview of exchange rate misalignments for 2020

Despite the large shock that represented the Covid-19 pandemic, the global configuration of currencies misalignments did not undergo any significant changes except for few EMEs that registered important movements. Among advanced economies, the picture was broadly unchanged. The US dollar registered a slight increase of its overvaluation; the British pound, the Canadian dollar and the Japanese yen registered an upward movement that led to the reduction of the undervaluations. The euro area is again featured with various situations with undervaluations prevailing in Germany, Ireland and the Netherlands while Belgium, France, Italy were close to their equilibrium. In EMEs, the Brazilian real registered the largest swings against the US dollar and have consequently seen a dramatic increase of its undervaluation. The Turkish lira continued its plunge against the US dollar and also increased its undervaluation. In contrast, the Chinese renminbi remained relatively stable and appeared broadly in line with its fundamental value. Carl Grekou


  Replay | The Future of Money - How the Digital Revolution Is Transforming Currencies and Finance

The presentation of Eswar S. Prasad's book "The Future of Money - How the Digital Revolution Is Transforming Currencies and Finance" explains that the world of finance is at the threshold of major disruption that will affect corporations, bankers, states, and citizens. Will cryptocurrencies evolve unpredictably as global corporations join the game?


ISSN: 1255-7072
Editorial Director : Antoine Bouët
Managing Editor : Evgenia Korotkova