Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Beyond Target: Indirect Impacts of Antidumping Author-Name: Sébastien Jean Author-Name: Kevin Lefebvre Keywords: Antidumping;Spillovers;Multi-product firms;China Classification-JEL:F12;F13;F14;F15 Abstract: This paper investigates the bilateral impacts of antidumping measures, beyond directly targeted products and exporting firms. It focuses on the country whose exports are most exposed to such measures, China. Productlevel analysis shows that export volumes are negatively affected for products similar to a product targeted by an antidumping case, i.e. belonging to the same tariff heading. Using firm-level data, we show that this impact is driven by within-firm contagion: targeted firms not only cut their exports of targeted products, they also reduce significantly their exports of non-targeted products. The decrease is half as large for the latter than for the former, but the total impact on bilateral trade is far larger, because the value of export flows affected by these indirect impacts is ten times larger than the value of directly targeted export flows. In addition, interestingly, this effect is more pronounced for small and private firms. Creation-Date: 2024-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2024/wp2024-10.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2024-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: UIP Deviations in Times of Uncertainty: Not all Countries Behave Alike Author-Name: Purva Gole Author-Name: Erica Perego Author-Name: Camelia Turcu Keywords: Uncertainty;Uncovered Interest Rate Parity;Risk Premia;Emerging Countries Classification-JEL:F21;F30;F31;F41 Abstract: In this paper, we reconsider the role of uncertainty in explaining uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) deviations by focusing on 60 emerging and developing (EMDE) and advanced (AE) economies, over the period 1995M1--2023M3. We show that differentiating between EMDE currencies and AE currencies is crucial for understanding UIP deviations as the behaviour of excess returns differs in the two groups in periods of uncertainty: deviations become wider for EMDEs and narrow for AEs. These new results are consistent with the idea that in periods of uncertainty, global investors might change their risk preferences and move from high currency-risk investments in EMDEs towards less risky ones in AEs. This evidence holds for both the short-run and long-run UIP, and becomes stronger since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Creation-Date: 2024-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2024/wp2024-09.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2024-09 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Percolation of Knowledge across Space Author-Name: Pierre Cotterlaz Author-Name: Arthur Guillouzouic Keywords: Knowledge Diffusion;Innovation Networks;Spatial Frictions;Patent Citation Classification-JEL:L14;O33;R12 Abstract: This paper shows that the negative effect of geographical distance on knowledge flows stems from how firms gain sources of knowledge through their existing network. We start by documenting two stylized facts. First, in aggregate, the distance elasticity of patent citations flows has remained constant since the 1980s, despite the rise of the internet. Second, at the micro level, firms disproportionately cite existing knowledge sources, and patents cited by their sources. We introduce a framework featuring the latter phenomenon, and generating a negative distance elasticity in aggregate. The model predicts Pareto-distributed innovator sizes, and citation distances increasing with innovator size. These predictions hold well empirically. We investigate changes of the underlying parameters and geographical composition effects over the period. While the distance effect should have decreased with constant country composition, the rise of East Asian economies, associated to large distance elasticities, compensated lower frictions in other countries. Creation-Date: 2024-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2024/wp2024-08.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2024-08 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Industrial Cost of Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes Author-Name: Blaise Gnimassoun Author-Name: Carl Grekou Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Keywords: Exchange Rate Regimes;(De)industrialization;Manufacturing;Developing Countries;Emerging Economies Classification-JEL:E42;F43;F45;F6;O14 Abstract: Premature deindustrialization in most emerging and developing economies is one of the most striking stylized facts of the recent decades. In this paper, we provide solid empirical evidence supporting that the choice of a fixed exchange rate regime accelerates this phenomenon. Relying on a panel of 146 developed, emerging, and developing countries over the 1974-2019 period, we show that fixed exchange rate regimes have had a negative, significant, and robust effect on the size of the manufacturing sector —developing countries being the most affected by the industrial cost of such a regime. Additional gravity model regressions show that the impact of fixed regimes passes through the trade channel. In particular, this regime has kept countries with low relative productivity in a state of structural dependence on imports of manufactured products to the detriment of the emergence of a strong local manufacturing sector. Creation-Date: 2024-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2024/wp2024-07.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2024-07 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Reconciling Contrasting Views on the Growth Effect of Currency Undervaluations Author-Name: Cécile Couharde Author-Name: Carl Grekou Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Author-Name: Florian Morvillier Keywords: Cross-quantile Regressions;Economic Growth;Multilateral Currency Misalignments;Undervaluations Classification-JEL:F31;O47;C32 Abstract: This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the link between exchange rate misalignments and economic growth for a large sample of 170 countries over the 1973-2019 period. We rely on new cross-country data on multilateral currency misalignments and cross-quantile regressions to demonstrate that the seemingly divergent views of the Washington Consensus and the export-led growth theory on the role of currency undervaluations in promoting economic growth can be reconciled. Although any significant departures from the equilibrium exchange rate levels are found undesirable, we show that undervaluations are more likely to stimulate economic growth in developing countries. However, this positive impact is observed only up to certain thresholds of development level and currency undervaluation. Consequently, strategies in the poorest countries that systematically undervalue currencies in real terms to foster growth should be carefully tailored, as they raise the risk for these economies of switching from a positive to a less favorable growth regime, depending on both their specific wealth level and the extent of their currency undervaluation. Creation-Date: 2024-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2024/wp2024-06.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2024-06 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Protection of Geographical Indications in Trade Agreements: Is it worth it? Author-Name: Charlotte Emlinger Author-Name: Karine Latouche Keywords: Geographical Indications;Regional Trade Agreements;Trade Margins Classification-JEL:F10;F14 Abstract: This paper estimates the impact of the inclusion of GIs in bilateral agreements on French exports of foodstuffs. We rely on a unique dataset of firms and products concerned by Geographical Indications (GIs) in the French agri-food industry (excluding wine) for 2012-2019, merged with firm-product-destination level data from French Customs and the French National Institute of Statistics. Controlling for market and firm characteristics, we compare the exports of GI firms with those of non-GI firms before and after the signing of the 13 agreements (25 destination countries) that include a list of GIs to be protected. We show that the protection of GIs in EU RTA helps French firms to reach new markets and to sell their products at higher price, but it depends on the level of protection provided by the agreement. Creation-Date: 2024-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2024/wp2024-05.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2024-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Greening the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Stephen Karingi Author-Name: Simon Mevel Author-Name: Cristina Mitaritonna Author-Name: Yu Zheng Keywords: International Trade;Climate Change;AfCFTA Classification-JEL:F13;F17;F18;Q56 Abstract: The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Agreement aims to create a single market for goods and services, increase intra-Africa trade and promote sustainable socioeconomic development in Africa. African countries need to balance efforts to address these goals with the urgency of climate change. As of the 27th session of the Conference of Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 2022, most African countries had submitted their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to mitigate the impact of climate change. Establishing a carbon market is now on the policy agenda. This paper uses a dynamic general equilibrium model with different sources of energy (including renewable energy) and an in-depth presentation of greenhouse gas emissions to assess the economic and environmental impacts of implementing the AfCFTA Agreement and adopting various climate policies in Africa, including those NDCs and the International Monetary Fund’s proposal of carbon price floors. It shows that implementing the agreement and achieving Africa’s climate objectives are compatible. Continental coordination of emissions reduction among African countries proves most efficient for climate action. Creation-Date: 2024-02 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2024/wp2024-04.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2024-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Are Mass Layoffs Individually Costly But Socially Beneficial? Author-Name: Axelle Arquié Author-Name: Thomas Grjebine Keywords: Mass layoffs;Sorting Classification-JEL:J31;J42 Abstract: Relying on rich administrative data, this paper examines the adaptive capabilities of the French labor market in the aftermath of large-scale layoffs in the manufacturing sector. We assess both individual and aggregate effects of these shocks, using a unique quantitative definition of mass layoffs. We first show that displaced workers suffer a long-lasting increase in the probability of being unemployed and, for those who find a job, a decrease in their salary. While mass layoffs entail costs for displaced workers, there is a possible social benefit if they result in productive reallocation of workers to the most innovative companies and in the creation of new firms. Remarkably, our findings indicate that firms that hire displaced workers exhibit lower investment rates, decreased value added, and a reduced workforce, with a higher proportion of employees on fixed-term contracts. Additionally, mass layoffs do not contribute to the enhancement of allocative efficiency, as the most skilled workers are less likely to be matched with the most successful establishments. Furthermore, we assess the extent to which local economies adapt to these shocks, revealing that, six years after the mass layoff event, the local unemployment rate is 12% higher in comparison to unaffected regions. Lastly, the affected areas experience a diminished share of new establishment creation. Creation-Date: 2024-01 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2024/wp2024-03.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2024-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Pioneering a new classification: a comprehensive study of healthcare products in global trade Author-Name: Pierre Cotterlaz Author-Name: Guillaume Gaulier Author-Name: Aude Sztulman Author-Name: Deniz Ünal Keywords: Health Products;International Trade;Advanced Economies;Emerging and Developing Economies Classification-JEL:F13;F14;F15;I11;L65 Abstract: International trade in healthcare products took off in the 2000s at the height of hyper-globalisation. Twenty years on, the Covid-19 shock drove home to governments the importance of health security and trained the spotlight on the industrial sovereignty issues raised by the international organisation of production. However, the tangled web of international value chains has compromised the traceability of the manufacturing of these essential goods. In addition, the classification of healthcare products across a multitude of industries in the trade and production nomenclatures makes them hard to identify and muddies the picture further. In this paper, we have painstakingly identified these products and classified them together in one industry grouping to assess the scale of and trends in trade to meet the needs of national health systems. Covering a vast range of products (medicinal products and their compounds, medical technology equipment and small medical materials), this healthcare industry grouping has posted the strongest relative growth since 2000, rising to take the number two share of world trade in 2021 just behind electronic products. This paper details the nature of world trade in the healthcare industry grouping and its five branches by production stage (intermediate and final), type of trade flows (one-way and two-way) and quality/price range. It goes on to present how the advanced countries are positioned compared with the rest. Creation-Date: 2024-01 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2024/wp2024-02.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2024-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Media Coverage of Immigration and the Polarization of Attitudes Author-Name: Sarah Schneider-Strawczynski Author-Name: Jérôme Valette Keywords: Immigration;Media;Polarization;Salience Classification-JEL:D8;F22;L82 Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of media coverage on immigration attitudes. It combines data on immigration coverage in French television with individual panel data from 2013 to 2017 that records respondents’ preferred television channel and attitudes toward immigration. The analysis focuses on within-individual variations over time, addressing ideological self-selection into channels. We find that increased coverage of immigration polarizes attitudes, with initially moderate individuals becoming more likely to report extremely positive and negative attitudes. This polarization is mainly driven by an increase in the salience of immigration, which reactivates preexisting prejudices, rather than persuasion effects from biased news consumption. Creation-Date: 2024-01 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2024/wp2024-01.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2024-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Why Origin Matters in Trade Data Author-Name: Pierre Cotterlaz Author-Name: Vincent Vicard Keywords: Gravity Equation;International Trade;Statistics;Regional Trade Agreements;European Union;Brexit Classification-JEL:F14;F13;F15;F62 Abstract: Different reporting standards are applied to determine the country of origin of trade flows in existing international trade databases, altering the geography of trade. We illustrate this issue using two extensively used trade databases, UN-Comtrade and IMF-DoTS and show that it has important implications when evaluating the impact of trade policies using a gravity framework. We provide evidence that IMF-DoTs applies different reporting standards for intra- and extra-EU trade from 1999 onwards. Such discrepancies generate a (significant) upward bias in the estimated impact of RTA, the EU and the euro area on trade. Reporting standards also differ across declaring countries in UN-Comtrade. We show that it inflates the estimated impact of Brexit on trade. Creation-Date: 2023-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2023/wp2023-23.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2023-23 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Containing Tariff Evasion Author-Name: Clément Anne Author-Name: Cyril Chalendard Author-Name: Ana Fernandes Author-Name: Bob Rijkers Author-Name: Vincent Vicard Keywords: Tax Evasion;Mirror Statistics;Trade;Corruption;Exporters;Importers;Tariffs Classification-JEL:F14;H26 Abstract: To identify transactions at risk of tariff evasion, this paper matches export transaction data from France with import transaction data from Madagascar using container identifiers. Reporting discrepancies between exporters and importers are prevalent but small, with over two-fifths of importers reporting in a way that increases their tariff liability. Yet, aggregate tariff revenues are 24 percent lower due to discrepancies. These revenue losses are highly concentrated: the top five evaders account for three-quarters of all tariff revenue losses and larger shipments are more at risk of evasion. Tariff enforcement in Madagascar is ineffective and only marginally mitigates revenue losses. Creation-Date: 2023-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2023/wp2023-22.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2023-22 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Interest Rate Dynamics and Commodity Prices Author-Name: Christophe Gouel Author-Name: Qingyin Ma Author-Name: John Stachurski Keywords: Commodity Prices;Time-varying Interest Rate;Competitive Storage Classification-JEL:C62;C63;E43;E52;G12 Abstract: In economic studies and popular media, interest rates are routinely cited as a major factor behind commodity price fluctuations. At the same time, the channels of transmission are far from transparent, leading to long-running debates on the sign and magnitude of interest rate effects. Purely empirical studies struggle to address these issues because of the complex interactions between interest rates, prices, supply changes and aggregate demand. To move this debate to a solid footing, we extend the competitive storage model to include stochastically evolving interest rates. We establish general conditions for existence and uniqueness of solutions, as well as providing a systematic theoretical and quantitative analysis of the interactions between interest rates and prices. Creation-Date: 2023-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2023/wp2023-21.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2023-21 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Impact of Immigration on the Employment Dynamics of European Regions Author-Name: Anthony Edo Author-Name: Cem Özgüzel Keywords: Immigration;Employment;Labour Supply;Employment Dynamics Classification-JEL:F22;J21;J61 Abstract: This paper provides the first evidence on the regional impact of immigration on native employment in a cross-country framework. We show that the rise in the share of immigrants across European regions over the 2010-2019 period had a modest impact on the employment-to-population rate of natives. However, the effects are highly uneven across regions and workers, and over time. First, the short-run estimates show adverse employment effects in response to immigration, while these effects disappear in the longer run. Second, low-educated native workers experience employment losses due to immigration, whereas high-educated ones are more likely to experience employment gains. Third, the presence of institutions that provide employment protection and high coverage of collective wage agreements exert a protective effect on native employment. Finally, economically dynamic regions can better absorb immigrant workers, resulting in little or no effect on the native workforce. Creation-Date: 2023-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2023/wp2023-20.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2023-20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Reasons Behind Words: OPEC Narratives and the Oil Market Author-Name: Celso Brunetti Author-Name: Marc Joëts Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Keywords: OPEC Announcements;Structural Topic Models;Volatility;Traders’ Positions Classification-JEL:G10;Q35;Q40;C45;C50 Abstract: We analyze the content of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) communications and whether it provides valuable information to the crude oil market. To this end, we derive an empirical strategy which allows us to measure OPEC’s public signal and test its credibility. Using Structural Topic Models, we identify in OPEC narratives several topics related to fundamental factors such as demand, supply, and speculative activity in the crude oil market, highlighting that OPEC announcements are highly linked to oil market volatility and traders’ positions. Most importantly, we find that OPEC communication is credible, reduces oil price volatility, and prompts market participants to rebalance their positions. Creation-Date: 2023-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2023/wp2023-19.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2023-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Monopsony, Efficiency, and the Regularization of Undocumented Immigrants Author-Name: George J. Borjas Author-Name: Anthony Edo Keywords: Monopsony;Regularization;Undocumented Immigrants;Labor Market Classification-JEL:D43;J31;J42;J61 Abstract: In May 1981, President François Mitterrand regularized the status of undocumented immigrant workers in France. The newly legalized immigrants represented 12 percent of the non-French workforce and about 1 percent of all workers. Employers have monopsony power over undocumented workers because the undocumented may find it costly to participate in the open labor market and have restricted economic opportunities. By alleviating this labor market imperfection, a regularization program can move the market closer to the efficient competitive equilibrium and potentially increase employment and wages for both the newly legalized and the authorized workforce. Our empirical analysis reveals that the Mitterrand regularization program particularly increased employment and wages for low-skill native and immigrant men, and raised French GDP by over 1 percent. Creation-Date: 2023-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2023/wp2023-18.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2023-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Cheaper and Faster: The Role of Air Services Agreements on Transportation Author-Name: Charlotte Emlinger Author-Name: Amélie Guillin Keywords: Transport Cost;Transport Time;Air Services Agreements;Trade Classification-JEL:F14;F13;L91 Abstract: We assess the impact of bilateral air services agreements (ASAs) on air transportation using an unique dataset providing direct observations of bilateral air transport cost and time for a standardized good, for 1,190 country-pairs, between 2011 and 2015. Our results show that ASAs reduce transportation cost by 8% while they only impact transportation time for landlocked countries and RTA members. Our estimates also reveal that bilateral trade decreases cost of transport, which highlights the role of backhauling in air transportation. File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2023/wp2023-17.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2023-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Energy, Inflation and Market Power: Excess Pass-Through in France Author-Name: Axelle Arquié Author-Name: Malte Thie Keywords: Inflation ;Markups Classification-JEL:E31;F4;L11 Abstract: We explore how, in the French manufacturing sector, producer prices vary with market power during a severe episode of energy price hikes (between January 2020 and February 2023). Our work provides some empirical evidence in favor of a role for firms' market power in explaining inflation, and in favor of the "sellers' inflation" hypothesis (Weber and Wasner 2023): in less competitive sectors, firms could use the energy price hike to increase their prices more than warranted by actual changes in costs. Using a rich dataset on French manufacturing firms' balance sheets, we first estimate markups at the firm-level, and aggregate them at the sectoral level. We then study the response of the producer price index (PPI) to a change in spot energy prices, depending on average market power within sectors. We show that, in sectors with higher markups, prices increase relatively more: in the least competitive sector, firms pass through up to 110% of the energy shock, implying an excess pass-through of 10 percentage points. In addition, we find that the association between markup and pass-through is even higher when markup dispersion is low, consistent with the argument that firms engage in price hikes when they expect their competitors to do the same. Creation-Date: 2023-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2023/wp2023-16.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2023-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Profit-shifting Frictions and the Geography of Multinational Activity Author-Name: Alessandro Ferrari Author-Name: Sébastien Laffitte Author-Name: Mathieu Parenti Author-Name: Farid Toubal Keywords: Profit Shifting;Tax Avoidance;Tax Havens;International Tax Reforms;Minimum taxation;DBCFT;Multinational firms Classification-JEL:F23;H25;H26;H32;H73 Abstract: International tax rules are commonly viewed as obsolete as multinational corporations exploit loopholes to move their profits to tax havens. This paper uncovers how international tax reforms can curb profit shifting and impact real income and welfare across nations. We introduce profit shifting and corporate taxation in a quantitative model of multinational production. The model delivers "triangle identities" through which we recover bilateral profit-shifting flows. Our estimates of both tax-base and profit-shifting elasticities, together with profit-shifting frictions, govern how taxes shape the geography of production and profits. Our model accommodates a rich set of corporate taxation scenarios. A global minimum tax would be beneficial for welfare since it would increase the public good provision and encourage countries to raise their statutory corporate tax rates. Instead, a border-adjustment tax that eliminates profit shifting could result in welfare losses. Creation-Date: 2023-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2023/wp2023-15.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2023-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Trade and Infrastructure Integration in Africa Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Mathilde Lebrand Author-Name: Siobhan Murray Author-Name: Michele Ruta Author-Name: Gianluca Santoni Keywords: Infrastructure;Preferential Trade Agreements;Structural Gravity;General Equilibrium Classification-JEL:F14;F15 Abstract: Economic integration of the African continent rests on two pillars: the ratification of an ambitious trade agreement and massive investment in transportation infrastructure. Leveraging a newly created city-level database on African exporters’ transport times and the latest techniques in general equilibrium modelling of international trade, the paper quantifies the impact of greater trade and transport integration for Africa. A pan-African agreement, such as the Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), would increase African countries’ exports by an average of 3.4 percent and GDP by 0.6 percent. Additional investments in roads, ports and in land borders, as envisioned by the Program for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA), would increase exports by 11.5 percent and GDP by 2.0 percent. Major transport investments are necessary to fully reap the benefits of the AfCFTA. Creation-Date: 2023-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2023/wp2023-14.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2023-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Understanding Differences in Attitudes to Immigration: A Meta-Analysis of Individuallevel Factors Author-Name: Lenka Drazanova Author-Name: Jérôme Gonnot Author-Name: Tobias Heidland Author-Name: Finja Kruger Keywords: Meta-analysis;Attitudes toward Immigration;Public Opinion;Migration;Intergroup Relations Classification-JEL:F22;J15 Abstract: Public attitudes toward immigration have attracted much scholarly interest and extensive empirical research in recent years. Despite a sizeable theoretical and empirical literature, no firm conclusions have been drawn regarding the factors affecting immigration opinion. We address this gap through a formal meta-analysis derived from the literature regarding immigration attitudes from the top journals of several social science disciplines in the years 2009-2019 and based on a population of 1185 estimates derived from 144 unique analyses on individual-level factors affecting attitudes to immigration. The meta-analytical findings show that two individual-level characteristics are most significantly associated with attitudes to immigration - education (positively) and age (negatively). Our results further reveal that the same individual characteristics do not necessarily explain immigration policy attitudes and attitudes towards immigrants' contribution. The findings challenge several conventional micro-level theories of attitudes to immigration. The meta-analysis can inform future research when planning the set of explanatory variables to avoid omitting key determinants. Creation-Date: 2023-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2023/wp2023-13.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2023-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Cultural Transmission and Political Attitudes: Explaining Differences between Natives and Immigrants in Western Europe Author-Name: Jérôme Gonnot Author-Name: Federica lo Polito Keywords: Immigration;Assimilation;Political Attitudes;Cultural Transmission Classification-JEL:D72;J15;P16;R23;Z1 Abstract: This paper uses data on individual political opinions from the European Social Survey to study the role of horizontal cultural transmission on immigrants' political assimilation in Western Europe. We analyze five key political issues: redistribution, gay rights, EU integration, immigration policy and trust in political institutions. Controlling for individual socio-economic characteristics, we document that immigrants show identical support for redistribution as natives, display more conservative attitudes towards gay rights and more liberal views on the other three issues. These differences widen with the cultural and religious distance between immigrants' background and Western European norms, and decrease with the number of years since migration. Among immigrants that have spent at least 10 years in their host country, attitudes towards migration policy catch up with those of natives and the migrant-to-native gap on political trust is reduced by 80\%. In contrast, differences on EU integration and gay rights remain stable while immigrants' views on redistribution becomes relatively more conservative. These attitude-specific patterns are also salient when studying political preferences at the regional and sub-regional level. Our results strongly point towards the transmission of cultural values from natives to immigrants on matters of immigration policy and political trust, whereas attitudes towards redistribution seem immune to cultural influences at destination. Creation-Date: 2023-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2023/wp2023-12.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2023-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Inequality, Current Account Imbalances and Middle Incomes Author-Name: Océane Blomme Author-Name: Jérôme Héricourt Keywords: Current Account;Finance;Inequality;Middle Class Classification-JEL:D31;E25;E44;F32 Abstract: This paper investigates the complex relationship between current account balance and income inequality, putting specific emphasis on the potential sources of non-linearities in the latter. Based on a dataset for 52 developed and developing countries over the period 1990-2019, we first show a one-standard-deviation increase in various income inequality indicators generates a decrease in the ratio of current account over GDP by -0.5 to -0.9 percentage points in developed countries, but no significant impact when the sample is expanded to include emerging and developing countries. We then show those average impacts are distorted along the distribution of economic and financial development variables: for those countries displaying low GDP per capita, low levels of financial deregulation and of capital account openness, additional income inequality actually improves the current account balance. Conversely, the impact of income inequality on current account is all the more negative that financial markets are bigger, more deregulated and more open. In addition, the decrease in the current account balance is 1.2 to 1.4 times more important in countries with higher financial development or more open capital account when the increase in inequality is driven by the income of top earners relative to the middle class rather than by the increase in top earners' incomes at the expense of the lowest percentiles of the distribution. Those results are robust to various robustness checks for endogeneity concerns, possible impact of the Great Financial Crisis, and variable definitions. Creation-Date: 2023-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2023/wp2023-11.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2023-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Populism and the Skill-Content of Globalization: Evidence from the Last 60 Years Author-Name: Frédéric Docquier Author-Name: Lucas Guichard Author-Name: Stefano Iandolo Author-Name: Hillel Rapoport Author-Name: Riccardo Turati Keywords: Populism;Globalization Classification-JEL:Elections;Populism;Immigration;Trade Abstract: We analyze the long-run evolution of populism and explore the role of globalization in shaping such evolution. We use an imbalanced panel of 628 national elections in 55 countries over 60 years. A rst novelty is our reliance on both standard (e.g., the "volume margin", or vote share of populist parties) and new (e.g., the "mean margin", a continuous vote-weighted average of populism scores of all parties) measures of the extent of populism. We show that levels of populism in the world have strongly fluctuated since the 1960s, peaking after each major economic crisis and reaching an all-time high – especially for right-wing populism in Europe – after the great recession of 2007-10. The second novelty is that when we investigate the "global" determinants of populism, we look at trade and immigration jointly and consider their size as well as their skill-structure. Using OLS, PPML and IV regressions, our results consistently suggest that populism responds to globalization shocks in a way which is closely linked to the skill structure of these shocks. Imports of low-skill labor intensive goods increase both total and right-wing populism at the volume and mean margins, and more so in times of de-industrialization and of internet expansion. Low-skill immigration, on the other hand, tends to induce a transfer of votes from left-wing to right-wing populist parties, apparently without aecting the total. Finally, imports of high-skill labor intensive goods, as well as high-skill immigration, tend to reduce the volume of populism. Creation-Date: 2023-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2023/wp2023-10.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2023-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Fire Sales and Bank Runs in the Presence of a Saving Allocation by Depositors Author-Name: Axelle Arquié Keywords: Fire Sales;Liquidity ratios;Bank Run;Saving Allocation Classification-JEL:E44;G01;G18;G21 Abstract: In this paper, we introduce a new mechanism into a banking model featuring distressed sale of assets (fire sales). As in reality, depositors choose between the liquid deposits of banks and the illiquid assets of funds from which early withdrawals are not possible. Our model reflects that dynamics, showing that two inefficiencies arise due to a pecuniary externality. The first inefficiency is well-known: banks do not keep enough liquidity buffers. The second inefficiency is that depositors do not invest the optimal amount into institutions that can be subject to runs (banks) relative to institutions that are preserved from runs (such as pension funds). To investigate whether there is too much deposits in banks or in pension funds, the direction of the inefficiency is studied numerically. Simulations show that the banking sector can be too big relative to pension funds, and that liquidity ratios -aimed at making banks less riskycan decrease welfare by increasing incentives to deposit into banks. Creation-Date: 2023-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2023/wp2023-09.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2023-09 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Retaliation through Temporary Trade Barriers Author-Name: Davide Furceri Author-Name: Jonathan Ostry Author-Name: Chris Papageorgiou Author-Name: Pauline Wibaux Keywords: Trade Retaliation;Protectionism;Antidumping;Temporary Trade Barriers Classification-JEL:F13;F14;F15 Abstract: Are Temporary Trade Barriers (TTBs) introduced for strategic reasons? To answer this question, we construct a novel sectoral measure of retaliation using daily bilateral data on TTB responses in 1220 subsectors across a panel of 25 advanced and emerging market economies during the period 1989-2019. Stylized facts and econometric analysis suggest that within-year responses are more important in terms of intensity and frequency than commonly understood from the existing literature, which has tended to ignore them. We find that retaliation often consists of responses across many sectors and that same-sector retaliation is far from being the norm. In addition, we find that larger countries tend to retaliate more, and that retaliation is larger during periods of higher unemployment and when the trading partner targeted a domestic comparative advantage sector. Creation-Date: 2023-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2023/wp2023-08.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2023-08 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Visa Policy and International Student Migration: Evidence from the Student Partners Program in Canada Author-Name: Jérôme Gonnot Author-Name: Mauro Lanati Keywords: International Migration;Students;Visa Policy;Information Classification-JEL:F22;H52;I23;O15 Abstract: This paper examines how visa policy affects international student migration. Using administrative data on community colleges in Canada, we evaluate a reform that introduced a new visa stream - the Student Partners Program (SPP) - with shorter processing times and higher approval rates for student visa applicants able to demonstrate that they have the financial resources and language skills to succeed academically. Using a triple difference estimator, we find that SPP increased student migration from treated countries by 33% relative to what would have occurred without the reform. In line with our theoretical model, we further show that SPP had a large and positive effect on international enrollment only in countries where migration fraud was a major concern, and that higher enrollment was driven by an increase in both the approval rate and the volume of applications to study at treated institutions. We also leverage the SPP reform to investigate potential crowding-out effects. While we find no evidence that the enrollment of international students took place at the expense of domestic students, our results indicate that the recruitment of students from countries eligible to SPP had a crowding-in effect on noneligible foreign students. Creation-Date: 2023-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2023/wp2023-07.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2023-07 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Unintended Consequences of High Regional Content Requirements Author-Name: Keith Head Author-Name: Thierry Mayer Author-Name: Marc Melitz Keywords: Regional Agreements;Rules of Origin;Cars Classification-JEL:F1 Abstract: Rules of origin (RoOs) are a common feature of regional trade agreements that fall short of full custom unions. Two of the most important trade agreements, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the European Union (EU), recently enacted major changes to those rules. The 2020 USMCA agreement replacing NAFTA made those rules much stricter. Meanwhile, following its exit from the EU customs union, Britain and the remaining EU27 had to draw up new rules of origin for the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA). This paper quantifies the main trade-offs involved in setting the strictness of RoOs in the context of the automobile industry. A more stringent agreement can raise or lower regional parts production, but it inevitably raises prices. Fitting our model to data on the use of NAFTA-origin parts in cars assembled within the region, we calibrate the key parameters that govern the responses to stricter RoOs. We then apply the calibrated model to evaluate the switch from NAFTA to the USMCA as well as other counterfactuals of interest. Creation-Date: 2023-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2023/wp2023-06.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2023-06 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Automation, Global Value Chains and Functional Specialization Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Ariell Reshef Author-Name: Gianluca Santoni Author-Name: Giulio Vannelli Keywords: Labor Share;Functional Specialization;Global Value Chains;Upstreamness;Technological Change;Automation;Robots Classification-JEL:E25;F14;F16;033 Abstract: We study how technology adoption and changes in global value chain (GVC) integration jointly affect labor shares and business function specialization in a sample of 14 manufacturing industries in 14 European countries in 1999– 2011. Our main contribution is to highlight the indirect effect of robotization on relative demand for labor via GVC integration. To do this, we develop a methodology to separately account for robots in the total capital stock. Increases in upstream, forward GVC participation directly reduce labor shares, mostly through reductions in fabrication, but also via management, marketing and R&D business functions. We do not find any direct effects of robot adoption; robotization affects labor only indirectly, by increasing upstream, forward GVC integration. In this sense robotization is “upstream-biased”. We also study novel channels through which rapid robotization in China shaped robotization in Europe and, therefore, GVC participation. This highlights an understudied way by which the global integration of China has affected relative demand for labor in its trading partners. Creation-Date: 2023-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2023/wp2023-05.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2023-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Tax Avoidance and the Complexity of Multinational Enterprises Author-Name: Manon Francois Author-Name: Vincent Vicard Keywords: Complexity;Firm organization;Multinational enterprises;Profit shifting;Tax avoidance Classification-JEL:F23;H2;L22 Abstract: Does the complexity of the ownership structure of multinational enterprises' (MNEs) serve tax avoidance? We use firm-level cross-country data to show that affiliates belonging to more complex MNEs are more likely to bunch around zero profit, which is consistent with complexity enabling tax avoidance by multinationals. Our results show that only the more complex MNEs shift profits away from their high-tax affiliates, while MNEs with flat ownership structures do not display such pattern. Creation-Date: 2023-02 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2023/wp2023-04.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2023-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Securing Foreign Markets: Exports, Relational Specificity and New Investment Locations Author-Name: Giorgia Giovannetti Author-Name: Gianluca Santoni Author-Name: Giulio Vannelli Keywords: Export;FDI;Relational Specificity Classification-JEL:F14;F23;F61 Abstract: In this article we examine how the need to secure profit streams from exports has affected the location choice of new foreign investments by French manufacturing firms. Motivated by the observation that most firms entering a new foreign country do not establish a production unit there or decrease their exports, we develop a simple theoretical framework to guide our analysis and provide empirical evidence to support this “market securing” mechanism. Our results confirm that companies tend to locate new investments in countries that account for a larger share of their past exports; allowing for better monitoring of the foreign market, the investment prevents the disruption of the relationship, whose impact on profits would be more detrimental in the case of more important foreign partners. A 10 percent increase in bilateral exports increases the probability of investing by 3.4 percent. Consistent with our mechanism, given the same volume of exports, firms prefer countries that purchase goods with higher relational specificity as finding new buyers for these goods would imply higher costs if the relationship was broken.Exporting at least one good with relational specificity above the 75th percentile increases the probability of investing by 2.2 times compared to exporting more generic goods (below the 50th percentile). Creation-Date: 2023-02 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2023/wp2023-03.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2023-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Border Apprehensions and Federal Sentencing of Hispanic Citizens in the United States Author-Name: Simone Bertoli Author-Name: Morgane Laouenan Author-Name: Jérôme Valette Keywords: Immigration;Ethnic Identity;Discrimination;Attitudes;Salience;Sentences Classification-JEL:K42;J15;F22 Abstract: We provide evidence that Hispanic citizens receive significantly longer sentences than non-Hispanic citizens in the Federal Criminal Justice System in the United States when a higher number of illegal aliens are apprehended along the southwest border. Apprehensions can increase the salience of Hispanic ethnic identity, which is associated with persistent negative stereotypes, and can also deteriorate attitudes toward Hispanics. We rule out concerns that apprehensions might convey legally relevant information to judges. Thus, we provide direct evidence for time-varying discrimination toward Hispanic defendants. Our estimated effect is only at play for defendants without a heavy previous criminal record. Creation-Date: 2023-01 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2023/wp2023-02.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2023-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The CEPII Trade and Production Database Author-Name: Thierry Mayer Author-Name: Gianluca Santoni Author-Name: Vincent Vicard Keywords: International Trade;Gravity Equation;Tariffs Classification-JEL:F14;F13 Abstract: This paper documents the CEPII Trade and Production Database (TradeProd), which provides data on international and domestic trade flows and trade protection. The database covers 162 countries and 9 industrial sectors over the period 1966-2018. TradeProd is intended for econometric estimation of the gravity equation and also includes a yearly balanced dataset necessary for counterfactual exercises using new quantitative trade models. Creation-Date: 2023-01 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2023/wp2023-01.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2023-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: EQCHANGE Annual Assessment 2022 Author-Name: Carl Grekou Keywords: EQCHANGE;Exchange Rates;Currency Misalignments;Global Imbalances Classification-JEL:E3;E4;E5;E6;F3 Abstract: This publication, accompanying the 2022’s update of EQCHANGE, aims at providing an overview of exchange rate misalignments for 2021. Overall, one year after the major shock that represented the Covid-19 pandemic, the global configuration of currency misalignments between 2020 and 2021 has shown a relative stability. Among advanced economies, the picture was broadly unchanged. The US dollar registered a moderate decrease of its overvaluation; the British pound and the Canadian dollar have not shown any significant movements; the Japanese yen plunged and increased its undervaluation. The euro area is again featured with various situations with undervaluations prevailing in Germany, Ireland and the Netherlands while Belgium, France, Italy, Portugal and Spain were close to their equilibrium. In emerging economies, the Turkish lira registered the largest swings against the US dollar and have consequently increased of its undervaluation. The Chinese renminbi has experienced an upward movement that slightly eroded its undervaluation and aligned it with its fundamental value. Creation-Date: 2022-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2022/wp2022-13.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2022-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Current Account Balances’ Divergence in the Euro Area: an Appraisal of the Underlying Forces Author-Name: Emmanuelle Faure Author-Name: Carl Grekou Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Keywords: Current Account;Global Imbalances;Eurozone Classification-JEL:F32;O52;C33 Abstract: This paper revisits the crucial issue of current account imbalances and focuses on the determinants of their gaps between eurozone Member States. We conduct robust estimations of the current account balances for a panel of ten founding euro area economies and construct a measure that allows us to diagnose why some countries have started to diverge from the eurozone mean in the last two decades. Our findings show evidence of remaining differences in countries’ economic development, meaning that real macroeconomic convergence has failed in the zone. Price and cost competitiveness, as well as fiscal balances, have also participated in this growing macroeconomic divergence. Overall, while the European authorities cannot influence the part of the current account gaps due to demographic factors, the role of fiscal redistribution and investment at the euro area level could help achieve macroeconomic convergence and thus reduce current accounts’ divergence in the zone. Creation-Date: 2022-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2022/wp2022-12.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2022-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Skilled Immigration, Task Allocation and the Innovation of Firms Author-Name: Anna Maria Mayda Author-Name: Gianluca Orefice Author-Name: Gianluca Santoni Keywords: Skilled Immigration;Innovation;Patents Classification-JEL:F22;J61 Abstract: This paper analyses the impact of skilled migrants on the innovation (patenting) activity of French firms between 1995 and 2010, and investigates the underlying mechanism. We present district-level and firm-level estimates and address endogeneity using a modified version of the shift-share instrument. Skilled migrants increase the number of patents at both the district and firm level. Large, high-productivity and capital-intensive firms benefit the most, in terms of innovation activity, from skilled immigrant workers. Importantly, we provide evidence that one channel through which the effect works is task specialization (as in Peri and Sparber, 2009). The arrival of skilled immigrants drives French skilled workers towards language-intensive, managerial tasks while foreign skilled workers specialize in technical, research-oriented tasks. This mechanism manifests itself in the estimated increase in the share of foreign inventors in patenting teams as a consequence of skilled migration. Through this channel, greater innovation is the result of productivity gains from specialization. Creation-Date: 2022-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2022/wp2022-11.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2022-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Usual Suspects: Offender Origin, Media Reporting and Natives’ Attitudes Towards Immigration Author-Name: Sekou Keita Author-Name: Thomas Renault Author-Name: Jérôme Valette Keywords: Immigration;Crime;Media Bias Classification-JEL:F22;K42;L82 Abstract: This paper analyses whether the systematic disclosure of criminals’ origins in the press affects natives’ attitudes towards immigration. It takes advantage of the unilateral change in reporting policy announced by the German newspaper Sächsische Zeitung in July, 2016. Combining individual-level panel data from the German Socio-Economic Panel from 2014 to 2018 with 402,819 crime-related articles in German newspapers and those newspapers’ market shares, we find that systematically mentioning the origins of criminals increases the relative salience of natives’ criminality and reduces natives’ concerns about immigration, breaking the implicit link between immigration and crime. Creation-Date: 2022-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2022/wp2022-10.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2022-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Heterogenous Effects of Employers’ Concentration on Wages: Better Sorting or Uneven Rent Extracting? Author-Name: Axelle Arquié Author-Name: Julia Bertin Keywords: Labor Market Concentration;Inequality;Sorting Classification-JEL:J31;J42 Abstract: Are workers equal in front of employers' concentration? We show, using instrumental variable estimations for France between 2000 and 2019, that employers' concentration has a negative heterogenous effect on wage, with the lowest earners being the most vulnerable. This increased wage inequality could reflect some efficiency gains if concentration allows employers to impose a more demanding selection process, improving sorting i.e. workers selection, thus generating both inequality and higher productivity. We find, exploring within-firm and between-firm inequality, that it is not the case. Employers' concentration instead generates wage inequality by undercutting relatively more the bargaining power of the lowest earners. Creation-Date: 2022-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2022/wp2022-09.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2022-09 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Regional Diffusion of Foreign Demand Shocks Through Trade and Ownership Networks Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Gianluca Santoni Keywords: Globalization;Productivity;Networks;FDI Classification-JEL:F14;F23;F61 Abstract: International demand shocks are transmitted within the trade and ownership firms' networks and impact directly or indirectly domestic firm productivity and labor misallocation. Considering manufacturing firms for Italy, Spain and France over the period 2009-2017, we quantify these transmission channels from the global economy to the domestic firms, and within the domestic economy across locations, sectors and firms. We compute in a shift share fashion international demand shock at the district-sector-year level as plausibly exogenous to individual firms. Our results confirm that global shocks are transmitted through trade networks and that this transmission is largely mediated by firms' ownership networks both across and within the borders of the three countries. Creation-Date: 2022-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2022/wp2022-08.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2022-08 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Not all political relation shocks are alike: Assessing the impacts of US-China tensions on the oil market Author-Name: Yifei Cai Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Author-Name: Jamel Saadaoui Keywords: China;Oil market;Political relations Classification-JEL:Q4;F51;C32 Abstract: This paper assesses the effects of US-China political tensions on the oil market. Relying on a quantitative measure of these relationships, we investigate how their dynamics impact oil demand, supply, and prices over various periods, starting from 1971 to 2019. To this end, we estimate a structural vector autoregressive model as well as local projections and show that political tensions between the two countries pull down oil demand and raise supply at medium- and long-run horizons. Overall, our findings show that conflicting relationships between these two major players in the oil market may have crucial impacts, such as the development of new strategic partnerships. Creation-Date: 2022-08 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2022/wp2022-07.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2022-07 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Culture-Promotion Effect of Multinationals on Trade: the IKEA case Author-Name: Dylan Bourny Author-Name: Daniel Mirza Author-Name: Camelia Turcu Keywords: Export Promotion;Multinationals;Trade Classification-JEL:E22;F12;F22 Abstract: In this paper, we investigate how some MNEs which spread their home culture over time and space to the rest of the world are affecting, in turn, trade flows from home. By selling products embodying cultural information related to their country of origin, those MNEs embrace the role of ambassadors of their home country. We argue that IKEA offers an ideal case to identify a multinational's culture-promotion effect on trade. We build a dataset on IKEA's presence in foreign markets between 1995 and 2015 and merge it with disaggregated product level trade between pairs of countries. We find solid evidence of an externality linked to IKEA: a setting of an IKEA new store in a destination increases trade flows by around 2% from Sweden for products that resemble to what the multinational offers (despite being completely unrelated to that multinational). This result is driven primarily by the products identified to encompass a high-cultural content. Other robustness checks and tests seem to be very much consistent with the hypothesis of IKEA promoting the Swedish culture to the world. Creation-Date: 2022-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2022/wp2022-06.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2022-06 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The CEPII Gravity Database Author-Name: Maddalena Conte Author-Name: Pierre Cotterlaz Author-Name: Thierry Mayer Keywords: Gravity Models;Bilateral Trade;Distance Classification-JEL:F1 Abstract: The Gravity database gathers a set of variables useful to researchers or practitioners estimating gravity equations. Each observation corresponds to a combination of an exporting country, an importing country and a year (i.e. "origindestination-year"). The data covers all existing countries, from 1948 to 2020, and includes a wide range of potential determinants of trade flows: geographic distances, indicators of cultural proximity, trade facilitation measures, etc. Creation-Date: 2022-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2022/wp2022-05.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2022-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Role of Storage in Commodity Markets: Indirect Inference Based on Grains Data Author-Name: Christophe Gouel Author-Name: Nicolas Legrand Keywords: Commodity Price Dynamics;Indirect Inference;Monte Carlo Analysis;Storage Classification-JEL:C51;C52;Q11 Abstract: Understanding commodity prices dynamics is of crucial importance for assessing the persistence of cost-push costs or for countries dependent on commodity exports. Unfortunately, despite decades of research, the workhorse theoretical model in the field, the rational expectations storage model, is yet to be empirically validated. This paper provides the first full empirical test of the storage model. We first build a new storage model featuring a supply response, long-run demand and cost trends, and four structural shocks. We then develop a flexible empirical approach which relies on the indirect inference method and exploits the joint dynamics of prices and quantities unlike previous estimations which only use price information. The information contained in quantities is essential to relax restrictive identifying assumptions and empirically assess the overall consistency of the model's new features. Finally, we carry out a structural estimation on the aggregate index of the world most important staple food products: maize, rice, soybeans, and wheat. The results show that our extended storage model is consistent with most of the moments in the data, including the high price autocorrelation of which up to 42% can be explained by the transfer of inventories over time. They also show that, although for these commodities supply shocks are the main drivers of market dynamics, over the past 60 years all price spikes have been associated with large positive demand shocks. Creation-Date: 2022-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2022/wp2022-04.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2022-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Second-generation immigrants and native attitudes toward immigrants in Europe Author-Name: Oscar Barrera Author-Name: Isabelle Bensidoun Author-Name: Anthony Edo Keywords: Immigration;Second-generation Immigrants;Attitudes toward Immigrants;Public Opinion Classification-JEL:J15;F22;P16 Abstract: This paper investigates the role played by immigrants and their children in shaping native attitudes toward immigrants in the European Union. By exploiting the 2017 Special Eurobarometer on immigrant integration, we show that countries with a relatively high share of immigrants are more likely to believe that immigrants are a burden on the welfare system and worsen crime. In contrast, native opinions on the impact of immigration on culture and the labor market are unrelated to the presence of immigrants. We also find that the effects of second-generation immigrants on pro-immigrant attitudes toward security and fiscal concerns are positive (as opposed to first-generation immigrants). Finally, we find no impact of the immigrant share on the attitudes of natives supporting far-left or left political parties, while it is the most negative among respondents affiliated with far-right parties. Creation-Date: 2022-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2022/wp2022-03.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2022-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Trade Liberalization, Collective Bargaining and Workers: Wages and Working Conditions Author-Name: Bastien Alvarez Author-Name: Gianluca Orefice Author-Name: Farid Toubal Keywords: Trade Liberalization;Working Conditions;Wages;Labor Market Institutions;Eastern Europe;E.U. Enlargement Classification-JEL: F15;F16;J30;J51;J81 Abstract: Using large scale data on Eastern European workers, we show significant and sizable deteriorations of their wages and working conditions in regions that faced large tariff liberalization and strong erosion of collective bargaining over the process of accession to the European Union. Import tariffs liberalization reduces workers' wages. The deterioration of working conditions is mostly driven by increased labor demand due to the improvement of Eastern countries' international market access. The erosion of collective bargaining worsens wages and working conditions. Creation-Date: 2022-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2022/wp2022-02.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2022-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: EU in Search of a WTO-Compatible Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism Author-Name: Cecilia Bellora Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Keywords: Carbon Border Adjustment;International Trade;Climate Change Classification-JEL:F14;F13;F17;Q56 Abstract: To meet the targets of the EU’s ”Fit for 55” package, the European Commission proposes to implement a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The CBAM is firstly intended to avoid carbon leakages, but it also deals with the thorny issue of the compliance by European producers in carbon-intensive industries. In addition, its design, as voted by the European Council on March 15, 2022, questions the compatibility of the CBAM with World Trade Organization (WTO) rules. The CBAM puts a price on carbon contained in imported products whose production-related emissions have not been taxed (or not at the same level as in the European Union) by the exporter country, in order to offset the difference in carbon prices at the border. This paper aims to quantify the economic and environmental impacts of different CBAM design choices with the aim of complying with WTO rules. Different from the previous literature, we evaluate the various options with a dynamic general equilibrium model featuring imperfect competition, global value chains, green-house gas emissions and endogenous price of emission quotas. We show that CBAM is effective in reducing carbon leakages. But its design leads to an increase in the price of carbon quotas in the European Emission Trading System (ETS) market. Losses in competitiveness on export markets are expected, also for downstream sectors not covered by the EU ETS nor the CBAM. Eventually, offsetting the difference in carbon prices at the border comes at a cost to the enforcing jurisdiction, suggesting that the CBAM was not designed as a beggar-thy-neighbour policy. Creation-Date: 2022-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2022/wp2022-01.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2022-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: EQCHANGE annual assessment 2021 Author-Name: Carl Grekou Keywords: EQCHANGE;Exchange Rates;Currency Misalignments;Global Imbalances Classification-JEL:E3;E4;E5;E6;F3 Abstract: This publication, accompanying the 2021’s update of EQCHANGE, aims at providing an overview of exchange rate misalignments for 2020. Overall, changes in currency misalignments during 2020 have been rather modest except few EMEs that registered important movements. Among advanced economies, the picture was broadly unchanged. The US dollar registered a slight increase of its overvaluation; the British pound, the Canadian dollar and the Japanese yen registered an upward movement that led to the reduction of the undervaluations. The euro area is again featured with various situations with undervaluations prevailing in Germany, Ireland and the Netherlands while Belgium, France, Italy were close to their equilibrium. In EMEs, the Brazilian real registered the largest swings against the US dollar and have consequently seen a dramatic increase of its undervaluation. The Turkish lira continued its plunge against the US dollar and also increased its undervaluation. In contrast, the Chinese renminbi remained relatively stable and appeared broadly in line with its fundamental value. Creation-Date: 2021-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2021/wp2021-13.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2021-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: MaGE 3.1: Long-Term Macroeconomic Projections of the World Economy Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Erica Perego Author-Name: Gianluca Santoni Keywords: Growth Models;Long-term Growth;Energy Use;Total Factor Productivity;Energy Efficiency Classification-JEL:O.04;E01;F01;F64 Abstract: What will the global economy look like in a generation? The answer depends on the multiple forces driving long-term growth (demography, education, diffusion of technical progress, energy costs, investment and saving behaviour, international capital mobility) and requires a comprehensive framework to conceptualise them. We re-estimate the three-factor (capital, energy, labour) MAcro-econometric model of the Global Economy (MaGE), initially developed by Fouré et al. (2013), with a database covering 170 countries using state-of-the-art methods. We thus establish the long-term structural relationships that drive the dynamics of the World economy. The model projections to 2050 illustrate the expected changes in the World economy and their driving forces. In light of the projected volume of energy consumption, making these projections compatible with climate imperatives calls for increased technology sharing at the international level in order to decouple economic growth from energy use. Creation-Date: 2021-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2021/wp2021-12.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2021-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Poor Substitutes? Counterfactual methods in IO and Trade compared Author-Name: Keith Head Author-Name: Thierry Mayer Keywords: Constant Elasticity of Substitution;Industrial Organization;Oligopoly;Trade;Tariffs;Counterfactual analysis Classification-JEL:F1 Abstract: Constant elasticity of substitution (CES) demand for monopolistically competitive firm-varieties is a standard tool for models in international trade and macroeconomics. Inter-variety substitution in this model follows a simple share proportionality rule. In contrast, the standard toolkit in industrial organization (IO) estimates a demand system in which cross-elasticities depend on similarity in observable attributes. The gain in realism from the IO approach comes at the expense of requiring richer data and greater computational challenges. This paper uses the dataset of Berry et al. 1995, who established the modern IO method, to simulate counterfactual trade policy experiments. We use the CES model as an approximation of the more complex underlying demand system and market structure. Although the CES model omits key elements of the data generating process, the errors are offsetting, leading to reasonably accurate counterfactual predictions. For aggregate outcomes, it turns out that incorporating non-unitary pass-through matters more than fixing over-simplified substitution patterns. We do so by extending the commonly used methods of Exact Hat Algebra and tariff elasticity estimation to take into account oligopoly. Creation-Date: 2021-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2021/wp2021-11.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2021-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Free Trade Agreements and the Movement of Business People Author-Name: Thierry Mayer Author-Name: Hillel Rapoport Author-Name: Camilo Umana Dajud Keywords: Covid-19;Business travel;Free Trade Agreements;Machine Learning;Text Analysis Classification-JEL:F10;F13;F14;F15;F20 Abstract: Many of the measures to contain Covid-19 severely reduced business travel. Using provisions to ease the movement of business visitors in trade agreements, we show that removing barriers to the movement of business people promotes trade. To do this, we first document the increasing complexity of Free Trade Agreements. We then develop an algorithm that combines machine learning and text analysis techniques to examine the content of FTAs. We use the algorithm to determine which FTAs include provisions to facilitate the movement of business people and whether those provisions are included in dispute settlement mechanisms. Using these data and accounting for the overall depth of FTAs, we show that provisions facilitating business travel indeed facilitate business travel (but not permanent migration) and, eventually, increase bilateral trade flows. Creation-Date: 2021-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2021/wp2021-10.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2021-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Love of Variety and Gains from Trade Author-Name: Christophe Gouel Author-Name: Sébastien Jean Keywords: International Trade;Firm Heterogeneity;Gains from Trade;Gravity;Love of Variety Classification-JEL:F11;F12;F13 Abstract: This paper shows how gains from trade are conditioned by love of variety, defined as the extent to which an additional product variety generates benefits in either final or intermediate consumption. We develop a multi-country, multisector gravity trade model where love of variety is parameterized separately from product substitutability using a generalized CES demand function, and show analytically how gains from trade depend on love of variety through different channels that we identify and interpret. In this context, except for very specific parameterizations, gains from trade differ between a heterogeneous- and a homogeneous-firm model. Counterfactual simulations based on a calibrated version of this model show that, all other things being equal, the assessed gains from trade commonly vary by a proportion of one to three depending on the value of the love-of-variety elasticity, in a way that differs significantly across countries. Trade war simulations also point to the strong sensitivity of the assessed impacts. We conclude that love of variety is a key determinant of the gains from trade, an aspect that has so far been overlooked for the sake of convenience in the modeling framework and due to lack of empirical estimates. Creation-Date: 2021-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2021/wp2021-09.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2021-09 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Impact of Common Law on the Volume of Legal Services: An International Study Author-Name: Enzo Dia Author-Name: Jacques Melitz Keywords: Common Law;Civil Law;Rent-Seeking;Openness Classification-JEL:K15;K00 Abstract: We show that the heavy use of legal services relative to output in the US is not a peculiarity of the country but applies to common law countries in general. It stems largely from better ability to contract and easier access to justice. Yet in close association, common law also opens significantly more room for rentseeking by lawyers than civil law. Thereby the costs could outweigh the benefits. Both real GDP per capita and openness emerge as further factors making room for lawyers. Creation-Date: 2021-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2021/wp2021-08.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2021-08 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Better Two Eyes than One: A Synthesis Classification of Exchange Rate Regimes Author-Name: Cécile Couharde Author-Name: Carl Grekou Keywords: Currency crisis;De facto classifications;Exchange rate regimes;Probit model;ROC analysis Classification-JEL: E52;F33;F4;O24 Abstract: This paper proposes a new de facto classification of exchange rate regimes, the synthesis classification. The proposed framework has several advantages over existing de facto classifications. First, it offers a unified framework based on the most divergent classifications, the RR and LYS classifications, leading not only to a broader coverage but also to encompass a broad spectrum of exchange systems. Second, it fits better with the known history of exchange rate regimes developments in the post-Bretton Woods era. Among others, it brings an interesting nuance to the so-called hollowing-out hypothesis by showing that the evolution of de facto regimes —especially in emerging economies since the late 1990s— has essentially involved movement toward more tightly “managed” intermediate regimes and not a shift away from such regimes. As an illustration of the insightfulness of our classification, we empirically revisit the nexus between currency crises and exchange rate regimes. In addition to associate a higher probability of currency crisis to both intermediate and floating regimes, our classification, also displays better statistical performances than other classifications in predicting currency crises. Creation-Date: 2021-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2021/wp2021-07.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2021-07 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: How Do Immigrants Promote Exports? Author-Name: Gianluca Orefice Author-Name: Hillel Rapoport Author-Name: Gianluca Santoni Keywords: International Trade;Birthplace Diversity;Migration;Productivity Classification-JEL:F14;F16;F22;O47 Abstract: How does immigration affect export performance? To answer this question, we propose a unified empirical framework allowing to disentangle various mechanisms put forth in previous literature. These include the role of networks in reducing bilateral transaction costs as well as productivity shifts arising from migration-induced knowledge diffusion and increased workforce diversity. While we find evidence supporting all three channels (at both the intensive and the extensive margins of trade), our framework allows to gauge their relative importance. We then focus on diversity and find stronger results in sectors characterized by more complex production processes and more intense teamwork cooperation. This is consistent with theories linking the distribution of skills to the comparative advantage of nations. The results are robust to using a theoretically grounded IV approach combining three variations on the shift share methodology. Creation-Date: 2021-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2021/wp2021-06.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2021-06 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Gender, Selection into Employment, and the Wage Impact of Immigration Author-Name: George J. Borjas Author-Name: Anthony Edo Keywords: Immigration;Wages;Selection;Labor Supply;Female Employment Classification-JEL:E24;F22;J21;J23 Abstract: Immigrant supply shocks are typically expected to reduce the wage of comparable workers. Natives may respond to the lower wage by moving to markets that were not directly targeted by immigrants and where presumably the wage did not drop. This paper argues that the wage change observed in the targeted market depends not only on the size of the native response, but also on which natives choose to respond. A non-random response alters the composition of the sample of native workers, mechanically changing the average native wage in affected markets and biasing the estimated wage impact of immigration. We document the importance of this selection bias in the French labor market, where women accounted for a rapidly increasing share of the foreign-born workforce since 1976. The raw correlations suggest that the immigrant supply shock did not change the wage of French women, but led to a sizable decline in their employment rate. In contrast, immigration had little impact on the employment rate of men, but led to a sizable drop in the male wage. We show that the near-zero correlation between immigration and female wages arises partly because the native women who left the labor force had relatively low wages. Adjusting for the selection bias results in a similar wage elasticity for both French men and women (between -0.8 and -1.0). Creation-Date: 2021-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2021/wp2021-05.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2021-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Risk Shocks and Divergence between the Euro Area and the US in the aftermath of the Great Recession Author-Name: Thomas Brand Author-Name: Fabien Tripier Keywords: Great recession;Business cycles;Uncertainty;Risk Shocks;Divergence Classification-JEL:E3;E4;G3 Abstract: Highly synchronized during the Great Recession of 2008-2009, the Euro area and the US have diverged in the period that followed. To explain this divergence, we provide a structural interpretation of these episodes through the estimation for both economies of a business cycle model with ?nancial frictions and risk shocks, measured as the volatility of idiosyncratic uncertainty in the ?nancial sector. Our results show that risk shocks have stimulated US growth in the aftermath of the Great Recession and have been the main driver of the double-dip recession in the Euro area. They play a positive role in the Euro area only after 2015. Risk shocks therefore seem well suited to account for the consequences of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and the subsequent positive e?ects of unconventional monetary policies, notably the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme (APP). Creation-Date: 2021-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2021/wp2021-04.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2021-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: On the economic desirability of the West African monetary union: would one currency fit all? Author-Name: Cécile Couharde Author-Name: Carl Grekou Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Keywords: Monetary integration;West Africa;CFA franc zone;ECOWAS Classification-JEL:F33;F45;C38;O55 Abstract: In this paper, we investigate from a policy coordination viewpoint the desirability of the West African monetary union project, ECO. Our approach is built around the inclusion of national objectives in the regional integration perspective. Thanks to cluster analysis, we identify two groups of countries with relatively homogenous sustainable exchange rate paths in West Africa. We also find that no single currency peg nor a freely floating exchange rate regime would be preferable for any of the countries or groups of economies. Overall, our findings argue in favor of two ECOs —at least in a first step, i.e., one for each of the two identified zones. Each ECO would serve as a virtual anchor —with some flexibility— for the considered group, and would be determined by a basket of currencies mainly composed of euro and US dollar. Creation-Date: 2021-02 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2021/wp2021-03.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2021-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Information in the First Globalization: News Agencies and Trade Author-Name: Pierre Cotterlaz Author-Name: Etienne Fize Keywords: Information;International Trade;Economic History;News Agency;First Globalization Classification-JEL:N70;F14;F15;F10 Abstract: This paper documents the effect of information frictions on trade using a historical large-scale improvement in the transmission of news: the emergence of global news agencies. The information available to potential traders became more abundant, was delivered faster and at a cheaper price between countries covered by a news agency. Exploiting differences in the timing of telegraph openings and news agency coverage across pairs of countries, we are able to disentangle the pure effect of information from the effect of a reduction in communication costs. Panel gravity estimates reveal that bilateral trade increased by 30\% more for pairs of countries covered by a news agency and connected by a telegraph than for pairs of countries simply connected by a telegraph. Creation-Date: 2021-02 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2021/wp2021-02.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2021-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: World Interest Rates and Macroeconomic Adjustments in Developing Commodity Producing Countries Author-Name: Vincent Bodart Author-Name: François Courtoy Author-Name: Erica Perego Keywords: Storable Commodity;International Financial Shock;Developing Economies Classification-JEL:E32;F41;G15;O11;Q02 Abstract:With commodities becoming international financial securities, commodity prices are affected by the international financial cycle. With this evidence in mind, this paper reconsiders the macroeconomic adjustment of developing commodity-exporting countries to changes in world interest rates. We proceed by building a model of a small open economy that produces a non-tradable good and a storable tradable commodity. The difference with standard models of small open economies lies in the endogenous response of commodity prices which -due to commodity storage- adjust to variations in international interest rates. We find that the endogenous response of commodity prices amplifies the reaction of commodity exporting countries to international monetary shocks. This suggests that commodity exporting countries are more vulnerable to unfavourable international monetary disturbances than other small open economies. In particular, because of the existence of the commodity price channel, even those small open commodity-exporting economies that are disconnected from international financial markets can be affected by the international financial cycle. Creation-Date: 2021-01 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2021/wp2021-01.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2021-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: EQCHANGE annual assessment 2020 Author-Name: Carl Grekou Keywords: EQCHANGE;Exchange Rates;Currency Misalignments;Global Imbalances Classification-JEL:E3;E4;E5;E6;F3; F4 Abstract: This publication, accompanying the 2020’s update of EQCHANGE, aims at providing an overview of exchange rate misalignments for 2019. In a nutshell, changes in the exchange rate misalignments on the eve of the Covid-19 pandemic have been relatively modest except few EMEs and DCs that registered large swings. This is especially the case of Egypt, India and Nigeria, and to a lesser extent of Brazil, Indonesia and Thailand. The Turkish lira, despite a continued plunge, maintained its large undervaluation due to the inflation spur. The US dollar, owing to its appreciation, registered a small increase in its overvaluation. The currency movements vis-à-vis the US dollar shaped most of the dynamics in the advanced economies that generally registered downward movements in the currency misalignments. This holds also for the Chinese renminbi that still appear broadly in line —with its fundamentals— despite a depreciation. In Europe, Germany, Ireland, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom displayed undervaluations; Finland, France, Italy and Luxembourg were close to their equilibrium; and Belgium, Austria, Greece, Portugal and Spain displayed overvaluations. Creation-Date: 2020-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2020/wp2020-16.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2020-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: One Nation, One Language? Domestic Language Diversity, Trade and Welfare Author-Name: Tamara Gurevitch Author-Name: Peter R. Herman Author-Name: Farid Toubal Author-Name: Yoto Yotov Keywords: Common Language;Ethno-linguistic Diversity;Identity;International Trade;Domestic Trade;Domestic Trade Costs;Welfare Classification-JEL:D60;F14;F19;C54;Z13 Abstract: Using new data on linguistic diversity across and within countries, we examine novel channels though which language affects trade patterns and economic welfare. We find that linguistic similarity within a country accounts for about 10 percent of estimated `home bias', demonstrating the importance of shared languages for domestic integration. To highlight the general equilibrium implications of domestic language proximity, we simulate the repeal of Quebec's Bill 101, which made French an official language in Canada and established fundamental language rights for Frenchspeakers. The analysis demonstrates that domestic language diversity has significant implications for Canada's welfare but also sizable economic consequences that stretch far beyond its borders. Creation-Date: 2020-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2020/wp2020-15.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2020-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Wealth and Shifting Demand Pressures on the Price Level in England After the Black Death Author-Name: Anthony Edo Author-Name: Jacques Melitz Keywords: Black Death;Fourteenth-century England;Price Level;Great Famine Classification-JEL:N13;J11;F33;J46 Abstract: The scale of the rise in personal wealth following the Black Death calls the life-cycle hypothesis of consumption into consideration. This paper shows for the first time that the wealth effect of the Black Death on the price level continued in England for generations, up to 1450. Indeed, in absence of consideration of the wealth effect, other influences on the price level do not even appear in the econometric analysis. The separate roles of coinage, population, trade, wages and annual number of days worked for wages all also receive attention and new results follow for adjustment in the labor market. Creation-Date: 2020-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2020/wp2020-14.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2020-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Global giants and local stars: How changes in brand ownership affect competition Author-Name: Vanessa Alviarez Author-Name: Keith Head Author-Name: Thierry Mayer Keywords: mergers;markups;globalisation;competition Classification-JEL:F12;F23;L13 Abstract: We assess the consequences for consumers in 76 countries of multinational acquisitions in beer and spirits. Outcomes depend on how changes in ownership affect markups versus efficiency. We find that owner fixed effects contribute very little to the performance of brands. On average, foreign ownership tends to raise costs and lower appeal. Using the estimated model, we simulate the consequences of counterfactual national merger regulation. The US beer price index would have been 4-7% higher without divestitures. Up to 30% savings could have been obtained in Latin America by emulating the pro-competition policies of the US and EU. Creation-Date: 2020-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2020/wp2020-13.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2020-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: MULTIPRIL, a new database on multilateral price levels and currency misalignments Author-Name: Cécile Couharde Author-Name: Carl Grekou Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Keywords: Multilateral price levels;Equilibrium exchange rates;Currency misalignments;Bayesian Model Averaging Classification-JEL:F31;C32;C82 Abstract: This paper describes the new CEPII-MULTIPRIL database on Multilateral Price Levels (MPL) introduced in 2020. The MULTIPRIL database covers a wide sample of 178 countries over the 1990-2018 period, and includes relative price level series computed vis-à-vis two sets of trading partners (177 and the top 30) according to three different trade-weighting schemes. It also contains MPL-based currency misalignments series for 156 countries over the 1991-2018 period. MULTIPRIL offers the potential to improve the coverage and quality of worldwide price-competitiveness comparisons. By focusing on price level data, it usefully complements the EQCHANGE database on equilibrium exchange rates and currency misalignments derived from series in indices. Its multilateral setting provides a more comprehensive picture of relative price levels and currency misalignments compared to existing bilateral measures. Creation-Date: 2020-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2020/wp2020-12.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2020-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: COVID-Induced Sovereign Risk in the Euro Area: When Did the ECB Stop the Contagion? Author-Name: Aymeric Ortmans Author-Name: Fabien Tripier Keywords: COVID-19;European Central Bank;Sovereign debt;Monetary policy;Local projections Classification-JEL:E52;E58;E65;H63 Abstract: This paper studies how the announcement of the ECB’s monetary policies stopped the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic to the European sovereign debt market. We show that up to March 9, the occurrence of new cases in euro area countries had a sizeable and persistent effect on 10-year sovereign bond spreads relative to Germany: 10 new confirmed cases per million people were accompanied by an immediate spread increase of 0.03 percentage points (ppt) that lasted 5 days, for a total increase of 0.35 ppt. For periods afterwards,the effect falls to near zero and is not significant. We interpret this change as an indicator of the success of the ECB’s March 12 press conference, despite the “we are not here to close spreads” controversy. Our results hold for the stock market, providing further evidence of the effectiveness of the ECB’s March 12 announcements in stopping the financial turmoil. A counterfactual analysis shows that without the shift in the sensitivity of sovereign bond markets to COVID-19, spreads would have surged to 4.2% in France, 12.5% in Spain, and 19.5% in Italy by March 18, when the ECB’s Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme was finally announced. Creation-Date: 2020-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2020/wp2020-11.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2020-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Migration and Cultural Change Author-Name: Hillel Rapoport Author-Name: Sulin Sardoschau Author-Name: Arthur Silve Keywords: Migration;Cultural Change;Globalization Classification-JEL:F22;O15;Z10 Abstract: We examine both theoretically and empirically how migration affects cultural change in home and host countries. Our theoretical model integrates various compositional and cultural transmission mechanisms of migration-based cultural change for which it delivers distinctive testable predictions on the sign and direction of convergence. We then use the World Value Survey for the period 1981-2014 to build time-varying measures of cultural similarity for a large number of country pairs and exploit within country-pair variation over time. Our evidence is inconsistent with the view that immigrants are a threat to the host country’s culture. While migrants do act as vectors of cultural diffusion and bring about cultural convergence, this is mostly to disseminate cultural values and norms from host to home countries (i.e., cultural remittances). Creation-Date: 2020-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2020/wp2020-10.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2020-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Corporate tax avoidance and industry concentration Author-Name: Julien Martin Author-Name: Mathieu Parenti Author-Name: Farid Toubal Keywords: Tax Avoidance;Industry Concentration;IRS Audit Probability Classification-JEL:D22;H26;L11;D4;F23 Abstract: This paper argues that tax avoidance by large corporations has contributed to the 25% increase in concentration among U.S. firms since the mid-1990s. Corporate tax avoidance gives large firms a competitive edge, which translates into larger market shares and an increase in the granularity of the economy. We develop IV and difference-in-differences strategies that show the causal impact of tax avoidance on firm-level sales. Had firms not resorted to tax avoidance in 2017, our results imply that the average industry concentration would have been 8.3% lower, which is around its early 2000 level. Creation-Date: 2020-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2020/wp2020-09.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2020-09 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Covid 19: a new challenge for the EMU Author-Name: Anne-Laure Delatte Author-Name: Alexis Guillaume Keywords: Sovereign Risk;European Monetary Union;Covid;Public Policy Classification-JEL:F30;F45;H63 Abstract: Although the pandemic was an exogenous shock, it triggered portfolio rebalancing in the Euro Area (EA) implying a divergence of sovereign risk premia in the first phase of the crisis eventually followed by a narrowing of the spreads. We estimate the determinants of sovereign bond spreads in the EA during the pandemic from January 2 2020 to May 25 2020. We find that: 1) the countries’ resilience to the COVID shock depended on healthcare capacity, the strength of the banking sector and the fiscal outlook; 2) during the crisis, ECB speeches were a game changer and made a much greater contribution than securities purchase programs; 3) coordination by the European Council also helped to reduce the spreads but the effect was partly offset by loan-based financial assistance programs Creation-Date: 2020-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2020/wp2020-08.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2020-08 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Grey Zones in Global Finance: the Distorted Geography of Cross-Border Investments Author-Name: Anne-Laure Delatte Author-Name: Amélie Guillin Author-Name: Vincent Vicard Keywords: Cross-Border Investments;Capital Openness;Tax Havens;Gravity Equation Classification-JEL:F23;G21;H22;H32 Abstract: Tax avoidance schemes generate artificially complex cross-border financial structures inflating measured international investment stocks in tax havens. Using a standard gravity framework, we estimate that about 40% of global assets (FDI, portfolio equity and debt) are `abnormal' – unexplained – stocks. Abnormal stocks are increasing over time and concentrated in a limited number of jurisdictions. Six jurisdictions including three European countries are the largest contributors: Cayman, Bermuda, Luxembourg, Hong Kong, Ireland and the Netherlands. Interestingly, the Luxleaks in 2014 do not appear to have diverted cross-border investments away. Creation-Date: 2020-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2020/wp2020-07.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2020-07 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Private Credit under Political Influence: Evidence from France Author-Name: Anne-Laure Delatte Author-Name: Adrien Matray Author-Name: Noémie Pinardon-Touati Keywords: politics and banking;moral suasion;local government financing Classification-JEL:G21;G30;H74;H81 Abstract: Formally independent private banks change their supply of credit to the corporate sector for the constituencies of contested political incumbents in order to improve their reelection prospects. In return, politicians grant such banks access to the profitable market for loans to local public entities among their constituencies. We examine French credit registry data for 2007--2017 and find that credit granted to the private sector increases by 9%--14% in the year during which a powerful incumbent faces a contested election. In line with politicians returning the favor, banks that grant more credit to private firms in election years gain market share in the local public entity debt market after the election is held. Thus we establish that, if politicians can control the allocation of rents, then formal independence does not ensure the private sector's effective independence from politically motivated distortions. Creation-Date: 2020-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2020/wp2020-06.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2020-06 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Currency Misalignments and Exchange Rate Regimes in Latin American countries: A Trade-Off issue Author-Name: Jorge Carrera Author-Name: Blaise Gnimassoun Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Author-Name: Romain Restout Keywords: Latin American Countries;Exchange Rate Regimes;Currency Misalignments Classification-JEL:F31;C23;E42 Abstract: This paper conducts an in-depth empirical investigation on the impact of the exchange rate regime (ERR) on real currency misalignments in a panel of 17 Latin American countries over the 1970-2016 period. We consider explicitly the two dimensions of misalignments, size and persistence, and evaluate four different ERR classifications. We also pay attention to cross-sectional dependencies across countries that appear to be important in Latin America, and provide several robustness checks. Our main findings show that, although fixed ERR perform well in limiting the size of misalignments – and in reducing inflation and fiscal deficit – the disequilibria are more persistent. On the contrary, allowing for more flexibility reduces persistence but increases the size of misalignments. Overall, we show that Latin American countries face a crucial trade-off when they have to choose their ERR. Creation-Date: 2020-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2020/wp2020-05.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2020-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Immigration and Worker-Firm Matching Author-Name: Gianluca Orefice Author-Name: Giovanni Peri Keywords: Matching;Workers;Firms;Immigration;Productivity Classification-JEL: F16;J20;J61 Abstract: The process of matching between firms and workers is an important mechanism in determining the distribution of wages. In a labor market characterised by large dispersion of workers' productivity and worker-firm complementarity, high quality firms have strong incentives to screen for the quality of workers. This process will increase the positive quality association of firm-worker matches known as positive assortative matching (PAM). Immigration in a local labor market, by increasing the variance of workers abilities, may drive stronger PAM between firms and workers. Using French matched employer-employee (DADS) data over the period 1995-2005 we document that positive supply-driven changes of immigrant workers in a district increased the strength of PAM. We then show that this association is consistent with causality, is quantitatively significant, and is associated with higher average productivity and firm profits, but also with higher wage dispersion. We also show that the increased degree of positive assortative matching is mainly reached by high-productive firms "losing" lower quality workers and "attracting" higher quality workers. Creation-Date: 2020-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2020/wp2020-04.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2020-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Cross-border Investments and Uncertainty Firm-level Evidence Author-Name: Rafael Cezar Author-Name: Timothée Gigout Author-Name: Fabien Tripier Keywords: Uncertainty;Asymmetric Uncertainty;FDI flows;FDI Returns;Volatility;Multinational Firms Classification-JEL:D81;F23;G10;G15 Abstract: This paper studies the impact of uncertainty on cross-border investments. We build a data-set of firm-level outward Foreign Direct Investments between 2000 and 2015. We create a time and country varying measure of uncertainty based on the dispersion of idiosyncratic investment returns. An increase in uncertainty delays cross-border flows to the affected country. Yet, this average effect hides strong heterogeneity. Firms with low ex-ante performance durably reduce their foreign investments. Meanwhile high-performing firms increase their investments after the initial shock. We interpret these results as the evidence of a cleansing effect of uncertainty shocks among multinational firms in the presence of financial frictions. Creation-Date: 2020-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2020/wp2020-03.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2020-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Weather Shocks and Migration Intentions in Western Africa: Insights from a Multilevel Analysis Author-Name: Simone Bertolia Author-Name: Frédéric Docquier Author-Name: Hillel Rapoport Author-Name: Ilse Ruyssen Keywords: International Migration;Migration intentions;Individual-level Data;Weather Shocks;Western Africa Classification-JEL:F22;J61;O13;O15 Abstract: We use a multilevel approach to characterize the relationship between weather shocks and (internal and international) migration intentions. We combine individual survey data on migration intentions with measures of localized weather shocks for Western African countries over 2008-2016. A meta-analysis on results from about 310,000 regressions is conducted to identify the specification of weather anoma-lies that maximizes the goodness of fit of our empirical model. We then use this best specification to document heterogeneous mobility responses to weather shocks, which can be due to differences in long-term climatic conditions, migration percep- tions, or adaptation capabilities. We find that droughts are associated with a higher probability of migration intentions in Senegal, Niger and Ivory Coast. The effect on international migration intentions are only significant in Niger. These effects are amplified, but qualitatively similar, when restricting the sample to rural low-skilled respondents. Creation-Date: 2020-02 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2020/wp2020-02.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2020-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Does Birthplace Diversity affect Economic Complexity? Cross-country Evidence Author-Name: Dany Bahar Author-Name: Hillel Rapoport Author-Name: Riccardo Turati Keywords: Economic Complexity;Birthplace Diversity;Immigration;Growth Classification-JEL:F22;O31;O33 Abstract: We empirically investigate the relationship between a country’s economic complexity and the diversity in the birthplaces of its immigrants. Our cross-country analysis suggests that birthplace diversity is strongly and positively associated with economic complexity. This holds particularly for diversity among highly educated migrants and for countries at intermediate levels of economic complexity. The results are robust to accounting for previous trends in birthplace diversity as well as to using alternatives diversity measures. We address endogeneity concerns by instrumenting diversity through predicted stocks from a pseudo-gravity model as well as from a standard shift-share approach. Finally, we provide evidence suggesting that birthplace diversity boosts economic complexity by increasing the diversification of the host country’s export basket. Creation-Date: 2020-01 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2020/wp2020-01.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2020-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: EQCHANGE Annual Assessment 2019 Author-Name: Carl Grekou Keywords: EQCHANGE;Exchange Rates;Currency Misalignments;Imbalances Classification-JEL:E3;E4;E5;E6;F3 Abstract: This publication, accompanying the 2019’s update of EQCHANGE, aims at providing an overview of exchange rate misalignments for 2018. In a nutshell, 2018 has been characterized by relatively minor movements in exchange rate misalignments except few EMEs that registered important downward movements owing from the exchange rate depreciations. This is especially the case of Turkey, and to a lesser extent, Brazil, India, Indonesia and Russia. In contrast, most of the major currencies registered a slight appreciation vis-à-vis the US dollar that generally translated in upward movements in currency misalignments. The euro area is again featured two opposite situations with Finland Germany, Ireland and the Netherlands displaying noticeable undervaluations. Creation-Date: 2019-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2019/wp2019-19.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2019-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Shooting Oneself in the Foot? Trade War and Global Value Chains Author-Name: Cecilia Bellora Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Keywords: Trade War;Global Value Chains Classification-JEL:F13;F17 Abstract: Since the beginning of 2018, the US administration has announced and implemented several measures limiting US trade, in particular with China. This has fueled retaliation and has escalated in high trade tensions at the global level. We address in this paper the effects of the current trade tensions on trade, sectoral value added and welfare, in General Equilibrium under imperfect competition. We rely on a set-up differentiating demand of goods according to their use, for final or intermediate consumption. This authorizes tracing the impact of protection, along the value chains, on prices, value added and factor income. Additional tariffs from official lists are averaged at the 6 digit level of the Harmonized System (HS6), before being aggregated at the sector level with a reference group weighted method. Negotiated quantities in Voluntary Export Restraints are also taken into account at the product level. Beyond the direct toll of sanctions, US exports to the world post a 7.5% decrease as a result of reduced competitiveness led by vertical linkages along the value chains. Because of the measures in place as of August 2019, three quarters of the sectors decrease their value added in the US, suggesting that with this tariff war the US are shooting themselves in the foot. The quantification of job destructions and creations in the different sectors is consistent with effects channeling through prices and demand along the value chains detrimental to downstream industries. Creation-Date: 2019-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2019/wp2019-18.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2019-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Product-Level Trade Elasticities Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Houssein Guimbard Author-Name: Gianluca Orefice Keywords: Trade Elasticity;International Trade;Tariffs;Welfare Gain Classification-JEL:F14;F17 Abstract: Trade elasticity is a crucial parameter in evaluating the welfare impacts of trade liberalization. We estimate trade elasticities at the product level (6-digit of the Harmonized System comprising more than 5,000 product categories) by exploiting the variation in bilateral applied tariffs for each product category for the universe of available country pairs. This is done by constructing a panel of bilateral applied tariffs and bilateral trade covering the period 2001 to 2016. We address potential endogeneity issues as well as heteroskedasticity and selection bias due to zero flows. The obtained trade elasticities are centered around -5. We finally highlight the differences in the gains from trade arising from considering heterogeneous rather than average trade elasticities. All product level elasticities are made publicly available for sake of scrutiny and use by other researchers. Creation-Date: 2019-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2019/wp2019-17.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2019-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Are Your Labor Shares Set in Beijing? The View through the Lens of Global Value Chains Author-Name: Ariell Reshef Author-Name: Gianluca Santoni Keywords: Labor Share;Skilled Labor Share;Global Value Chains;Offshoring;Vertical Integration Classification-JEL:E25;F14;F15;F16;F66; J00 Abstract: We study the evolution of labor shares in 1995-2014 while taking into account international trade based on value added concepts. On average, the decline in labor shares (starting around 1980) accelerates in 2001-2007, after which labor shares recover somewhat. In contrast, skilled labor shares consistently increase. The acceleration in the decline in labor shares is associated with increased intensity of intermediate input exporting; this manifests in a sharp increase in the foreign component in upstreamness of industries and countries in global value chains (GVCs). China's global integration accounts for much of this. Declines in the price of investment together with capital-skill complementarity can explain both the consistent increase in skilled labor shares and the reversal of trend in overall labor shares. Compared to shares in GDP, labor shares in gross national product (GNP) are higher in countries with positive net FDI positions; the uneven spread of multinational activity contributes to greater inequality through this channel. Creation-Date: 2019-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2019/wp2019-16.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2019-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Immigration and Preferences for Redistribution in Europe Author-Name: Alberto Alesina Author-Name: Elie Murard Author-Name: Hillel Rapoport Keywords: Income Redistribution;Population Heterogeneity;Welfare Systems;Immigration Classification-JEL:D31;D64;I3;Z13 Abstract: We examine the relationship between immigration and preferences for redistribution in Europe using a newly assembled data set of immigrant stocks for 140 regions in 16 Western European countries. Exploiting within-country variations in the share of immigrants at the regional level, we find that native respondents display lower support for redistribution when the share of immigrants in their residence region is higher. This negative association is driven by regions of countries with relatively large Welfare States and by respondents at the center or at the right of the political spectrum. The effects are also stronger when immigrants originate from Middle-Eastern or Eastern European countries, are less skilled than natives, and experience more residential segregation. These results are unlikely to be driven by immigrants' endogenous location choices, that is, by welfare magnet effects or by immigrants' sorting into regions with better economic opportunities. They are also robust to instrumenting immigration with a standard shiftshare approach or to controlling for regional growth prospects. Creation-Date: 2019-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2019/wp2019-15.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2019-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: TBTs, Firm Organization and Labour Structure Author-Name: Giorgio Barba Navaretti Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Gianluca Orefice Author-Name: Giovanni Pica Author-Name: Anna Cecilia Rosso Keywords: Skill Composition;Labor Demand;Job Polarization;Trade Barriers Classification-JEL:F13;F14;J53 Abstract: This paper investigates the effects on firms' occupational structure of shocks induced by the introduction of Technical Barriers to Trade (TBTs) in importing countries. We rely on the Specific Trade Concern (STC) data released by the WTO to identify trade-restrictive TBT measures, combined with matched employer-employee data for the population of French exporters over the period 1995-2010, and with information on the list of product-destinations served by each French exporter. Controlling for time-invariant firm/occupation effects and for time-varying sector/occupation shocks, IV estimates show that exporters respond to increased complexity associated with restrictive TBTs at destination by raising the share of managers at the expense of blue collars, white collars and professionals. This evidence is consistent with the growing literature exploring how firms organize their workforce composition in presence of exogenous (foreign) shocks; and it is also related to the well-beaten literature on the labour market effects of trade. Creation-Date: 2019-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2019/wp2019-14.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2019-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Migrant Inventors and the Technological Advantage of Nations Author-Name: Dany Bahar Author-Name: Prithwiraj Choudhury Author-Name: Hillel Rapoport Keywords: Innovation;Migration;Patent;Technology;Knowledge Classification-JEL:O31;O33;F22 Abstract: We investigate the relationship between the presence of migrant inventors and the dynamics of innovation in the migrants’ receiving countries. We find that countries are 25 to 50 percent more likely to gain advantage in patenting in certain technologies given a twofold increase in the number of foreign inventors from other nations that specialize in those same technologies. For the average country in our sample this number corresponds to only 25 inventors and a standard deviation of 135. We deal with endogeneity concerns by using historical migration networks to instrument for stocks of migrant inventors. Our results generalize the evidence of previous studies that show how migrant inventors "import" knowledge from their home countries which translate into higher patenting. We complement our results with micro-evidence showing that migrant inventors are more prevalent in the first bulk of patents of a country in a given technology, as compared to patents filed at later stages. We interpret these results as tangible evidence of migrants facilitating the technology-specific diffusion of knowledge across nations. Creation-Date: 2019-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2019/wp2019-13.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2019-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Migration and Post-Conflict Reconstruction: The Effect of Returning Refugees on Export Performance in the Former Yugoslavia Author-Name: Dany Bahar Author-Name: Andreas Hauptmann Author-Name: Cem Özgüzel Author-Name: Hillel Rapoport Keywords: Migration;Refugees;Knowledge Diffusion;Management;Exports;Productivity Classification-JEL:O33;F14;F22 Abstract: During the early 1990s Germany offered temporary protection to over 600,000 Yugoslavian refugees fleeing war. By 2000, many had been repatriated. We exploit this natural experiment to investigate the role of migrants in post-conflict reconstruction in the former Yugoslavia, using exports as outcome. Using confidential social security data to capture intensity of refugee workers to German industries –and exogenous allocation rules for asylum seekers within Germany as instrument– we find an elasticity of exports to return migration between 0.08 to 0.24. Our results are stronger in knowledge-intensive industries and for workers in occupations intensive in analytical and managerial skills. Creation-Date: 2019-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2019/wp2019-12.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2019-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Measuring the Balassa-Samuelson Effect: A guidance Note on the RPROD Database Author-Name: Cécile Couharde Author-Name: Anne-Laure Delatte Author-Name: Carl Grekou Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Author-Name: Florian Morvillier Keywords: Balassa-Samuelson;Relative Productivity;Tradables;Non-tradables Classification-JEL:F31;F41 Abstract: This guidance note outlines the construction and contents of RPROD. This new database developed by CEPII complements the EQCHANGE database, by providing additional measures of the Balassa-Samuelson effect. RPROD delivers the following indicators computed for each country included in the database, and relative to its main trading partners: (i) GDP per capita, (ii) labor productivity, (iii) consumer-price-to-producer-price ratio, (iv) three-sectors' value-added deflator, and (v) six-sectors' value-added deflator. These different measures are publicly available (http://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/fr/bdd_modele/presentation.asp?id=34), with the aim to contribute to the investigation of the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis, and to the comparison of estimated equilibrium real exchange rates and currency misalignments across alternative proxies of this effect. Creation-Date: 2019-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2019/wp2019-11.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2019-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Primary Cause of European Inflation in 1500-1700: Precious Metals or Population? The English Evidence Author-Name: Anthony Edo Author-Name: Jacques Melitz Keywords: The “Great Inflation”;Demography;Precious Metals;European Economic History 1500-1700 Classification-JEL:E31;F00;J10;N13;N33 Abstract: We perform the first econometric test to date of the influences of inflows of precious metals and population growth on the “Great Inflation” in Europe following the discovery of the New World. The English evidence strongly supports the near-equivalent importance of both influences. For 1500-1700, silver is the only relevant precious metal in the estimates. The study controls for urbanization, government spending, mortality crises and climatic changes. The series for inflows of the precious metals into Europe from America and European mining are newly constructed based on the secondary sources. Creation-Date: 2019-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2019/wp2019-10.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2019-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Sectoral reallocations, Real estate shocks, and productivity divergence in Europe Author-Name: Thomas Grjebine Author-Name: Jérôme Héricourt Author-Name: Fabien Tripier Keywords: Productivity;Sectoral Reallocations Classification-JEL:D22;F45;R30;O45 Abstract: This paper investigates the role of sectoral reallocations in the divergence of productivity in Europe, based on a database for 33 sectors and 14 countries between 1995 and 2015. Using the contribution of sectoral productivity growth to Total Factor Productivity (TFP) at the country level, we highlight that variations in the relative size of sectors - less productive sectors growing relatively to more productive ones - have been at the origin of variable productivity losses in main European countries. Parallel to this divergence, European countries experienced heterogeneous real estate price dynamics, which took the form, in some economies, of massive boom-bust cycles. We investigate real estate shocks as a potential source of sectoral reallocations through a collateral mechanism. These shocks turn out to be a strong driver of productivity divergence between European countries. Creation-Date: 2019-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2019/wp2019-09.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2019-09 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Exchange rate pass-through to import prices: Accounting for changes in the Eurozone trade structure Author-Name: Antonia Lopez-Villavicencio Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Keywords: Exchange Rate Pass-through;Import Prices;China;Eastern Europe;Eurozone Classification-JEL:E31;F31;F4;C22 Abstract: This paper assesses whether the emergence of new trading partners (i.e., China and Eastern Europe) as suppliers reduces the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) in Eurozone countries which differ regarding their external exposure. Using bilateral data on import prices at the two-digit sector level, we find that (i) pass-through is complete in many cases, (ii) ERPT from China is higher than from the United States, and (iii) there is no compelling evidence of a generalized link between ERPT and the increasing integration of some emerging markets in European imports. We also show that the launch of the single currency has not provoked a sufficient change in the part of trade exposed to exchange rate fluctuations and, therefore, has not affected the pass-through. Overall, the trend of liberalization in new players' markets has not altered the competitive environment such as to induce exporters of other countries to absorb exchange rate depreciations. Creation-Date: 2019-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2019/wp2019-08.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2019-08 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The transmission channels of unconventional monetary policy: Evidence from a change in collateral requirements in France Author-Name: Anne-Laure Delatte Author-Name: Pranav Garg Author-Name: Jean Imbs Keywords: Unconventional Monetary Policy;Transmission Channels;Corporate Finance;Real Effects of Monetary Policy;Individual Data Classification-JEL:C55;C58;E44;G21;G32 Abstract: Using a bank-firm level credit registry combined with firm-level balance sheet data we establish the presence of heterogeneity in the effects of unconventional monetary policy transmission. We examine the consequences of a loosening in the collateral eligibility requirement for credit refinancing in France. The policy was designed to affect bank lending positively. We expect a linear increase in lending and an additional increase in loans to firms with newly acceptable rating. We find a large heterogeneity of the monetary policy transmission including the unexpected reduction of lending by the banks benefiting the most from the policy. These are small, risk-averse banks whose foremost concern after the recession was to strengthen their balance sheets. Banks least affected by the policy respond with a reduction in credit to low risk borrowers in reaction to the change in the market structure. Last we document heterogenous effects of the policy on firms depending on their size. Creation-Date: 2019-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2019/wp2019-07.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2019-07 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Exorbitant Privilege of High Tax Countries Author-Name: Vincent Vicard Keywords: Proft Shifting;Multinational Firms;FDI;Investment Income;Tax Avoidance Classification-JEL:H26;H25; H32;F14;F23 Abstract: The well documented US excess returns on its net foreign assets is no exception at the world level. Excess returns on foreign assets owe largely to yield differential within the FDI asset class and are correlated to the corporate tax rate for a large sample of countries, consistently with tax motivated profit shifting by multinational corporations. Using French firm level data on dividends and reinvested earnings from foreign affiliates, I provide evidence and quantify the impact of corporate tax avoidance on international asset returns. Profit shifting inflates the investment income balance and accounts for the average 2 percentage points return differential between French FDI assets and liabilities. Missing profts in France, estimated at €36 billions or 1.6% of GDP in 2015, are mostly shifted to EU countries. Creation-Date: 2019-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2019/wp2019-06.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2019-06 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Heterogeneity within the Euro Area: New Insights into an Old Story Author-Name: Virginie Coudert Author-Name: Cécile Couharde Author-Name: Carl Grekou Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Keywords: Euro Area;Equilibrium Exchange Rates;Cluster Analysis;Factor Analysis;Macroeconomic Imbalances Classification-JEL:F33;C38;F45;E5 Abstract: We assess cross-country heterogeneity within the eurozone and its evolution over time by measuring the distances between the equilibrium exchange rates’ paths of member countries. These equilibrium paths are derived from the minimization of currency misalignments, by matching real exchange rates with their economic fundamentals. Using cluster and factor analyses, we identify two distinct groups of countries in the run-up to the European Monetary Union (EMU), Greece being clearly an outlier at that time. Comparing the results with more recent periods, we find evidence of rising dissimilarities between these two sets of countries, as well as within the groups themselves. Overall, our findings illustrate the building-up of macroeconomic imbalances within the eurozone before the 2008 crisis and the fragmentation between its member countries that followed. Creation-Date: 2019-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2019/wp2019-05.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2019-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Activism and Trade Author-Name: Pamina Koenig Author-Name: Sandra Poncet Keywords: Activism;Multinational Firms;Trade;Imports;Clothing Industry Classification-JEL:F14;L67;L31 Abstract: This paper studies the effect of activism on the imports of consumer products, by focusing on an event which generated massive consumer mobilization against neglecting firms, namely the collapse of the Rana Plaza building affecting the textile industry in Bangladesh. We hypothesize that this episode was a main shock in the perceived quality of clothing producers sourcing in Bangladesh. Using detailed import flows on textile goods from OECD countries, we analyze whether the imports of consumer products were affected by the disclosure of information, in countries differently exposed to the collapse. To proxy the amount of information received by individuals in different countries, we use the nationality of the firms involved in the Rana Plaza building: soon after the disaster, NGOs and the media insisted on the origin countries of the neglecting companies, publishing the list of misbehaving firms by nationality. We use a difference-in-difference approach to compare the imports from Bangladesh of countries having been differently associated in the news to the Rana Plaza collapse. Results show a post-disaster decrease in imports for countries whose firms were directly involved in the Rana Plaza building. The effect has to be interpreted relatively to the evolution of imports of similar countries, however not linked to the collapsed Rana Plaza knitting factories. While aggregate imports from Bangladesh continue to increase during the whole period (2010-2016), there is a marked disruption that affects countries whose brands were named and shamed by activists and the media after the disaster. No such differential pattern is observed for non-textile goods. Our results are robust to a variety of checks. Creation-Date: 2019-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2019/wp2019-04.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2019-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: International Business Cycles: Information Matters Author-Name: Eleni Iliopulos Author-Name: Erica Perego Author-Name: Thepthida Sopraseuth Keywords: Financial Frictions;International Business Cycles;Learning;Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Classification-JEL:D84;E44;E51;F41;F42 Abstract: We study the international transmission of shocks when agents form expectations under adaptive learning and imperfect information. To this aim we consider a two-country model featuring financial frictions, nominal rigidities, learning and Home information bias (as a source of information imperfection). We show that the more pronounced the Home information bias, the less agents track the international transmission of shocks, as it would otherwise be the case under rational expectations. The model succeeds in matching the low business cycle synchronization of consumption, while generating a positive output co-movement. In doing so, the model takes the theory closer to the data with respect to the output-consumption co-movement anomaly. The model also exhibits departure from the Uncovered Interest rate Parity. Creation-Date: 2019-02 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2019/wp2019-03.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2019-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: A Fistful of Dollars? Foreign Sales Platforms and Profit Shifting in Tax Havens Author-Name: Sébastien Laffitte Author-Name: Farid Toubal Keywords: International Taxation;Tax avoidance;Foreign platforms;Tax havens;Profit shifting; Firms' organization Classification-JEL:F23;H26;H73 Abstract: Using public macro-level data on activities of multinationals, we document that U.S. firms geographically disconnect sales and production to avoid paying corporate taxes. We revisit both theoretically and empirically the location determinants of foreign platforms and show that market access motives are far less relevant when considering tax havens. We characterize these countries and shed light on the attractiveness of different tax havens for specific sectors of activity. Our quantification shows that profit shifting by foreign sales platforms in tax havens amounts to about $80bn in 2013. Our findings contribute to the recent policy debate on the reform of international taxation. Creation-Date: 2019-01 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2019/wp2019-02.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2019-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Are global value chains receding? The jury is still out. Key findings from the analysis of deflated world trade in parts and components Author-Name: Guillaume Gaulier Author-Name: Aude Sztulman Author-Name: Deniz Ünal Keywords: Global Value Chains;Parts and Components – P&C;Trade in Volume; Electronics Classification-JEL:F14;F15;L60 Abstract: In this article, we examine the dynamics of Global Value Chains (GVCs) since the 2000s. Did it show a marked expansion up to the Great Recession and did GVCs begin a downturn in the 2010s? To better understand the evolution of GVCs at the world level, we use very detailed trade data for 2000 to 2016, which distinguishes different production stages along the GVC. In particular, among intermediate goods, we focus on Parts and Components (P&C) rather than semi-finished products since the manufacture of P&C corresponds to activities more embedded in GVCs. We control, also, for the global business cycle and price effects using an original production stages deflator based on detailed bilateral trade unit-values. This new GVC indicator shows moderate growth over the study period with no trend reversal. In the electronics sector, where GVCs are particularly well-developed, we observe contrasting effects: the share in P&C trade for office machinery and computers has decreased, while it has increased in the case of telecommunications equipment, the flagship IT revolution industry. Also, counts of clients or suppliers by stages of production indicate higher and growing geographical diversity for P&C. Creation-Date: 2019-01 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2019/wp2019-01.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2019-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Institutions and Customs Duty Evasion Author-Name: Sébastien Jean Author-Name: Cristina Mitaritonna Author-Name: Antoine Vatan Keywords: Tax Evasion;Customs Duty;Institutions;International Trade Classification-JEL:J13;H26;K42 Abstract: Tariff receipts are important for many countries but their collection is often problematic. To analyze why and to what extent this occurs we first model customs duty evasion as an interaction between customs officers considered to be corruptible law enforcers, and importing firms. In this context, higher tariffs generally lead to greater customs duty evasion but their marginal impact is decreasing, and may turn negative above a given threshold if customs officers adapt their inspection effort endogenously. While transparency (the probability of effective control) always limits evasion, we show that ease of enforcement (e.g. ease of establishing the shipment`s true value) matters only if customs officers do not collude with importers. Our empirical analysis spans 55 importing countries over the period 2001-2010 and confirms our predictions. This lends support to the assumptions of endogenous inspection effort and widespread collusion. World Trade Organization membership is found also to limit the extent of duty evasion. Creation-Date: 2018-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2018/wp2018-24.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2018-24 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: EQCHANGE annual assessment 2018 Author-Name: Carl Grekou Keywords: EQCHANGE;Exchange Rates;Currency Misalignments;Imbalances Classification-JEL:E3;E4;E5;E6;F3 Abstract: The present publication, which accompanies the 2018’s update of EQCHANGE, aims at providing an overview as extensive as possible of the exchange rate misalignments for the year 2017. It also aims at discussing the evolution of exchange rates and currency misalignments between 2016 and 2017 as well as their underlying factors, hence identifying global patterns and monitoring —global— imbalances. Despite some intra-year volatility across major currencies, the changes in the currency misalignments have been of relatively small amplitudes in 2017, thus leaving the global configuration of currency misalignments that prevailed in 2016 broadly unchanged. Relatively few countries, however, registered noticeable changes in their currency misalignments. Creation-Date: 2018-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2018/wp2018-23.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2018-23 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Misfits in the car industry: Offshore assembly decisions at the variety level Author-Name: Keith Head Author-Name: Thierry Mayer Keywords: FDI;Gravity;Offshoring Classification-JEL:F1 Abstract: This paper estimates the role of country-variety comparative advantage in the decision to offshore assembly of more than 2000 models of 197 car brands headquartered in 23 countries. While offshoring in the car industry has risen from 2000 to 2016, the top five offshoring brands account for half the car assembly relocated to low-wage countries. We show that the decision to offshore a particular car model depends on two types of cost (dis)advantage of the home country relative to foreign locations. The first type, the assembly costs common to all models, is estimated via a structural triadic gravity equation. The second effect, model-level comparative advantage, is an interaction between proxies for the model's skill and capital intensity and headquarter country's abundance in these factors. Creation-Date: 2018-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2018/wp2018-22.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2018-22 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Techies, Trade, and Skill-Biased Productivity Author-Name: James Harrigan Author-Name: Ariell Reshef Author-Name: Farid Toubal Keywords: Productivity;Skill Bias;Skill Augmenting;Labor Demand;Outsourcing;Globalization;R&D;ICT Classification-JEL:d24;f16;f66;j24;052 Abstract: We study the impact of firm level choices of ICT, R&D, exporting and importing on the evolution of productivity and its bias towards skilled occupations. We use a novel measure of the propensity of a firm to engage in technology investment and adoption: its employment of workers with STEM (science, technology, engineering and math) skills and experience who we call “techies”. We develop a methodology for estimating firm level productivity that allows us to measure both Hicks-neutral and skill-augmenting technology differences, and apply this to administrative data on French firms in the entire private sector from 2009 to 2013. We find that techies and importing of intermediate inputs raise skill-biased productivity, while imports also raise Hicks-neutral productivity. We also find that higher firm-level skill biased productivity raises low-skill employment even as it raises the ratio of skilled to unskilled workers. This is because of the cost-reducing effect of higher productivity. The techie and trade effects are large, and can account for much of the aggregate increase in skilled employment from 2009 to 2013. Creation-Date: 2018-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2018/wp2018-21.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2018-21 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Firms' Exports, Volatility and Skills: Evidence from France Author-Name: Maria Bas Author-Name: Pamela Bombarda Author-Name: Sébastien Jean Author-Name: Gianluca Orefice Keywords: Exports;Employment Volatility;Skiller Labor;Firm-level Data Classification-JEL:f1;f16;l25;l60 Abstract: Inequalities between workers of different skills have been growing in the era of globalization. Firms' internationalization mode has an impact on job stability. Exporting firms are not only exposed to different foreign shocks, they also pay skill-intensive fixed costs to serve foreign markets. This implies that, for larger exporters, the labor demand for skilled workers is expected to be less volatile than for unskilled workers. In this paper we study the relationship between firms' export activity and job stability across employment skills. Relying on detailed firm-level data from France for the period 1996-2007, we show that firms with higher export intensity exhibit a lower volatility of skilled labor demand relative to the volatility of unskilled labor demand. Our identification strategy is based on an instrumental variable approach to provide evidence on the causal effect of the export performance of the firm on the volatility of employment of different skills. Our findings suggest that exporting increases the stability of skilled jobs, but feeds the precariousness of unskilled ones. Creation-Date: 2018-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2018/wp2018-20.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2018-20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Uncertainty Shocks and Firm Creation: Search and Monitoring in the Credit Market Author-Name: Thomas Brand Author-Name: Marlène Isoré Author-Name: Fabien Tripier Keywords: Uncertainty;Financial frictions;Search and matching;Business cycle;Firm creation;Firm dynamics Classification-JEL:D8;E3;E4;E5 Abstract: We develop a business cycle model where endogenous firm creation stems from two credit market frictions. First, entrepreneurs search for a lending relationship with a bank. Second, an optimal debt contract with monitoring is implemented. We analyze the interplay between both frictions, and embed it into an otherwise standard business cycle model, which we estimate with Bayesian techniques. We find that uncertainty shocks are a prime contributor to business cycle fluctuations in the US, not only for macro-financial aggregates but also for firm creation. Moreover, we point out that the credit search friction dampens the financial accelerator mechanism because default may imply the end of the lending relationship. Creation-Date: 2018-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2018/wp2018-19.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2018-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Sovereign Risk and Asset Market Dynamics in the Euro Area Author-Name: Erica Perego Keywords: Currency Union;International Financial Markets;Sovereign Risk;General Equilibrium Classification-JEL:F41;F44;G15 Abstract: This paper studies the behavior of euro area asset market co-movements during the period 2010-2014, through the lens of a DSGE model. The economy is a two-country world consisting of a core and a periphery and featuring an international banking sector, international equity markets, home bias in sovereign bond holdings, and sovereign default. The periphery is buffeted by a sovereign risk shock, whose process is estimated from the data. The model accounts successfully for the divergence in core-periphery correlations between stock and sovereign bond returns. The simulation results indicate that the sovereign risk shock explains 50% of the increase in sovereign and loandeposit spreads, and 8% of the decrease in global output during the sovereign debt crisis. Creation-Date: 2018-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2018/wp2018-18.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2018-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: On the competitiveness effects of quality labels: Evidence from the French cheese industry Author-Name: Sabine Duvaleix-Treguer Author-Name: Charlotte Emlinger Author-Name: Carl Gaigné Author-Name: Karine Latouche Keywords: Geographical Indication;PDO;Trade Margins;Product Quality;Price Classification-JEL:F10;F14 Abstract: The paper questions the impact of geographical indication labels on firm export competitiveness in the French cheese and cream industry. We use firm level data from the French custom and an original dataset of firms and products concerned by Protected Designations of Origin (PDO). Our estimations show that PDO labeling allows firms to increase their price by 11.5% on average. Moreover these products are perceived by consumers as products of better quality than non-PDO products. Regarding trade margins, while the effect on trade volume (the intensive margin of trade) is not significant, PDO labeling increases the probability of serving a foreign country (the extensive margin of trade). Our estimations show that exports of PDO products would increase by 11.4% if non-EU consumers value PDO label as much as EU consumers. Creation-Date: 2018-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2018/wp2018-17.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2018-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Deviations in real exchange rate levels in the OECD countries and their structural determinants Author-Name: Martin Berka Author-Name: Daan Steenkamp Keywords: Balassa-Samuelson;Real Exchange Rates;OECD;Total Factor Productivity;Labour Wedge;Unit Labour Cost Classification-JEL:E12;E23;E24;F31;F33;F41;F43 Abstract: We study the validity of an augmented Balassa-Samuelson theory in a panel of real exchange rate levels across 17 OECD countries between 1970 and 2012 using a unique panel of levels of total factor productivity (TFP) across sectors. We find that real exchange rates can be explained by relative sectoral TFP levels both across countries and over time in the direction predicted by Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis. We also show that drivers of labour wedges such as structural labour market differences are important in explaining real exchange rate levels. Nevertheless, large average conditional deviations in real exchange rate levels remain across countries in our sample. Creation-Date: 2018-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2018/wp2018-16.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2018-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The third demographic dividend: measuring the “demographic tax” in the Arab Countries in Transition Author-Name: Gilles Dufrénot Keywords: Demographic Tax;Efficiency Score;Arab Countries;Stochastic Frontier;Quantile Classification-JEL:C31;J11;P51 Abstract: This paper proposes a new approach to quantify the demographic dividend and shows evidence of a demographic tax in the Arab countries in Transition (ACT). Our question is whether a shift in the age structure (a larger share of working-age population) is translated into less (more) efficient labor supply and demand and whether these in turn reduce (increase) per-capita GDP. We propose estimates based on stochastic frontier analysis and quantile regressions. We find several interesting results. First, we document the existence of a dividend gap for the ACT with unchanging inefficiency scores over time between 56% and 79% in Yemen, 35% on average in Egypt, between 4% and 23% in Tunisia, between 7% and 30% in Libya, between 6% and 21% in Jordan. Morocco in the only country showing a demographic dividend with an average 30% inefficiency score that decreases over time. Secondly, the variables that are sources of these inefficiencies are the gender gap (with a significant influence of female labor market participation), insufficient secured jobs (this variable carry a positive sign with GDP per-capita and has the largest size among of the coefficients in the regression), own-account employment (which can be considered as a proxy of the importance of the informal sector) and a low public spending in health. Creation-Date: 2018-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2018/wp2018-15.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2018-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Looking for the Bright Side of the China Syndrome: Rising Export Opportunities and Life Satisfaction in China Author-Name: Matthieu Crozet Author-Name: Laura Hering Author-Name: Sandra Poncet Keywords: Happiness;Well-being;Globalization;China Classification-JEL:F61;F66;I31;J28 Abstract: China's increased export capacity in recent decades has disrupted developed-country labor markets and the well-being of workers exposed to foreign competition. We here attempt to complete the assessment of the social and human consequences of globalization by exploring the other side of this "China syndrome". We evaluate the extent to which increased export opportunities have influenced well-being in China using panel data on approximately 25,000 adults across 122 Chinese localities in 2010, 2012 and 2014. The results show that perceived life satisfaction rises significantly as local export markets grow. This effect goes beyond higher local GDP per capita and individual incomes. Creation-Date: 2018-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2018/wp2018-14.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2018-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Do Global Value Chains Amplify Global Imbalances? Author-Name: Antonia López-Villavicencio Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Keywords: Global Value Chains;Current Account Imbalances Classification-JEL:F32;F40;F62 Abstract: This paper addresses the impact of countries' participation in global value chains (GVCs) on their current account balances. Relying on a panel of 57 advanced and emerging countries, we do not fi nd evidence that GVC participation directly raises economies' current account positions. On the contrary, we show that backward participation makes a negative contribution to current account balances: our results contradict the speculation that current account imbalances of downstream countries are likely to benefi t more from GVC participation than economies which are located further upstream. Moreover, we show that there is no signifi cant indirect effect of GVC on the current account operating through the exchange rate. Finally, our fi ndings indicate that whereas GVC participation boosts exports, this increase is not accompanied by improvements in price competitiveness, nor by higher levels of saving rates. Creation-Date: 2018-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2018/wp2018-13.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2018-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Currency Misalignments and Economic Growth: The Foreign Currency-Denominated Debt Channel Author-Name: Carl Grekou Keywords: Equilibrium Exchange Rate;Currency Misalignments;Debt;Valuation Effects;Economic Growth Classification-JEL:F30;F43;C33;O11 Abstract: The literature on the growth effects of currency misalignments, although prolifi c, revolves around two main axes: the export-oriented growth literature which attributes positive effects to undervaluations (competitiveness gains) and the Washington Consensus view according to which any deviations from equilibrium hamper economic growth. In this paper, relying on a panel of 70 developing and emerging countries, we evidence the existence of a foreign currencydenominated debt channel through which misalignments impact growth. Compared to the traditional competitiveness channel, this channel works in the opposite direction. In particular, we show that, unlike overvaluations, undervaluations are more likely to cause valuation effects that tend to dampen the competitiveness effect. The paper therefore reconciles the two strands of the literature: undervaluations may have indeed a positive growth effect, but it is crucial to take into account the possible costs related to these undervaluations to have a clearer picture of the net total effect. Creation-Date: 2018-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2018/wp2018-12.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2018-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Somatic Distance, Trust and Trade Author-Name: Jacques Melitz Author-Name: Farid Toubal Keywords: Somatic Distance;Cultural Interactions;Co-ancestry;Trust;Language;Bilateral Trade Classification-JEL:F10;F40;Z10 Abstract: Somatic distance, or differences in physical appearance, proves to be extremely important in the gravity model of bilateral trade in conformity with results in other areas of economics and outside in the social sciences. This is also true independently of survey evidence about bilateral trust. These findings are obtained in a sample of the 15 members of the European Economic Association in 1996. Robustness tests also show that somatic distance, as well as co-ancestry, has a more reliable influence on bilateral trade than the other cultural variables. The article finally discusses the interpretation and breadth of application of these results. Creation-Date: 2018-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2018/wp2018-11.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2018-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Changing Structure of Immigration to the OECD: What Welfare Effects on Member Countries? Author-Name: Michal Burzynski Author-Name: Frédéric Docquier Author-Name: Hillel Rapoport Keywords: Immigration;Welfare;Crisis;Inequality;General Equilibrium Classification-JEL:c68;f22;j24 Abstract: We investigate the welfare implications of two pre-crisis immigration waves (1991–2000 and 2001–2010) and of the post-crisis wave (2011–2015) for OECD native citizens. To do so, we develop a general equilibrium model that accounts for the main channels of transmission of immigration shocks – the employment and wage effects, the fiscal effect, and the market size effect – and for the interactions between them. We parameterize our model for 20 selected OECD member states. We find that the three waves induce positive effects on the real income of natives, however the size of these gains varies considerably across countries and across skill groups. In relative terms, the post-crisis wave induces smaller welfare gains compared to the previous ones. This is due to the changing origin mix of immigrants, which translates into lower levels of human capital and smaller fiscal gains. However, differences across cohorts explain a tiny fraction of the highly persistent, cross-country heterogeneity in the economic benefits from immigration. Creation-Date: 2018-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2018/wp2018-09.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2018-09 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Trade and currency weapons Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Matthieu Bussière Author-Name: Pauline Wibaux Keywords: tariffs;exchange rates;trade elasticities;protectionism Classification-JEL:F13;F14;F31;F60 Abstract: The debate on trade wars and currency wars has re-emerged since the Great recession of 2009. We study the two forms of non-cooperative policies within a single framework. First, we compare the elasticity of trade flows to import tariffs and to the real exchange rate, based on product level data for 110 countries over the 1989-2013 period. We find that a 1 percent depreciation of the importer's currency reduces imports by around 0.5 percent in current dollar, whereas an increase in import tariffs by 1 percentage point reduces imports by around 1.4 percent. Hence the two instruments are not equivalent. Second, we build a stylized short-term macroeconomic model where the government aims at internal and external balance. We find that, in this setting, monetary policy is more stabilizing for the economy than trade policy, except when the internal transmission channel of monetary policy is muted (at the zero-lower bound). One implication is that, in normal times, a country will more likely react to a trade "aggression" through monetary easing rather than through a tariff increase. The result is reversed at the ZLB. Creation-Date: 2018-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2018/wp2018-08.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2018-08 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Do Unit Labor Costs Matter? A Decomposition Exercise on European Data Author-Name: Sophie Piton Keywords: Economic Integration;Productivity;Structural Change;Non-tradable Sector;Macroeconomic Imbalances;Capital Flows;Growth Accounting;Euro Area Classification-JEL:E32;E65;F41;F45;O33 Abstract: From the introduction of the Euro up to the 2008 global financial crisis, macroeconomic imbalances widened among Member States. This divergence took the form of strong differences in the dynamics of unit labour costs. This paper asks why this happened. Is it the result of distortionary public spending, or the consequence of economic integration? To answer this question, this paper builds a theoretical framework that is able to provide a decomposition of unit labour costs growth into various effects of economic integration and policy intervention. Using a novel dataset, it then measures the contribution of each effect to the dynamics of unit labour costs in 12 countries of the Euro area from 1995 to 2014. Results show that trade and financial integration are significant drivers of unit labour costs divergence. Before the global financial crisis, in Greece and Portugal for example, trade and financial integration explain up to 30% of the increase in unit labour costs relative to core countries. On the contrary, distortionary public spending plays a minor role. These results suggest that, in peripheral economies, increasing unit labour costs reflect more the process of real convergence than fiscal profligacy. Creation-Date: 2018-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2018/wp2018-07.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2018-07 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Cost of Non-Europe, Revisited Author-Name: Thierry Mayer Author-Name: Vincent Vicard Author-Name: Soledad Zignago Keywords: Trade Integration;Gravity;European Union Classification-JEL:F1 Abstract: In this paper we quantify the "Cost of Non-Europe", i.e. the trade-related welfare gains each country member has reaped from the European Union. Thirty years after the terminology of Non-Europe was used to give estimates of the gains from further integration, we use modern versions of the gravity model to estimate the trade creation implied by the EU, and apply those to counterfactual exercises where for instance the EU returns to a "normal'', shallow-type regional agreement, or reverts to WTO rules. Those scenarios are envisioned with or without the exit of the United Kingdom from the EU (Brexit) happening, which points to interesting cross-country differences and potential cascade effects in doing and undoing of trade agreements. Creation-Date: 2018-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2018/wp2018-06.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2018-06 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: GVCs and the Endogenous Geography of RTAs Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Gianluca Santoni Keywords: Preferential Trade Agreements;Global Value Chains;Structural Gravity Classification-JEL:F13;F14;F16 Abstract: There has been considerable attention paid to the endogenous nature of regional trade agreements Geography, economic size, or common history help predicting signed agreements. However, not all signed RTAs are “natural" according to economic determinants, as trade negotiations can be used as a tool of external policy. Recent developments in terms of structural gravity help clarifying this debate by taking account of all theoretically relevant determinants of bilateral trade, as well as general equilibrium effects of signing an agreement. Indeed, the endogeneity of trade arrangements has a time dimension and is related to firm strategies. These are the two mechanisms addressed in this paper. We estimate the time-varying probability for a country pair to sign a trade agreement and build upon structural gravity in general equilibrium to determine how the patterns of Global Value Chains shape the evolving geography of optimal trade agreements. Our results confirm that the endogenous geography of RTAs is shaped by the development of GVCs. Creation-Date: 2018-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2018/wp2018-05.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2018-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: L'impact budgétaire de 30 ans d'immigration en France : (I) une approche comptable Author-Name: Xavier Chojnicki Author-Name: Lionel Ragot Author-Name: Ndeye-Penda Sokhna Keywords: Migration internationale;Finances publiques;Protection sociale Classification-JEL:e62;f22;h62 Abstract: Cet article e´value la contribution nette de l’immigration aux finances publiques en France depuis la fin des anne´es 70. Nous de´veloppons une me´thode comptable qui de´sagre`ge le de´ficit public primaire entre la contribution propre a` la population des immigre´s et celle des natifs. Cette contribution nette est calcule´e comme la diffe´rence entre les taxes, cotisations et impo^ts divers qu’ils versent aux finances publiques et l’ensemble des be´ne´fices qu’ils en retirent. Un des apports de cet article est de calculer cette contribution nette sur une pe´riode de temps relativement longue (1979-2011). Nous montrons que la contribution nette des immigre´s a ge´ne´ralement e´te´ ne´gative sur l’ensemble de la pe´riode, mais qu’elle n’a jamais e´te´ a` l’origine du de´ficit primaire de la France. Leur contribution est toujours reste´e contenue en dec¸a` de ±0, 5% du PIB (re´duit a` ±0, 2%, si on fait exception de l’anne´e 2011). Cette relative neutralite´ de la population immigre´e sur les comptes publics s’explique par une structure de´mographique favorable, qui compense leur moindre contribution nette individuelle. La crise de 2008, compare´e a` la re´cession des anne´es 90, a eu des effets plus marque´s. Alors que les immigre´s expliquent 8,3% du de´ficit primaire par habitant en France en 1995 (comparable a` leur poids dans la population totale), cette part est de plus de 17% en 2011. Cette diffe´rence s’explique en grande partie par le fait que les actifs immigre´s ont e´te´ beaucoup plus touche´s que les actifs natifs durant la crise de 2008, en particulier les moyennement et hautement qualifie´s. Les anne´es 2000 ont e´galement vue la contribution nette par te^te des immigre´s originaires de l’Union Europe´enne se de´grader sensiblement et rejoindre celle des immigre´s originaires de pays tiers. Creation-Date: 2018-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2018/wp2018-04.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2018-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Property Tax Shocks and Macroeconomics Author-Name: François Geerolf Author-Name: Thomas Grjebine Keywords: Multipliers;Consumption;User cost of housing Classification-JEL:E32;E62;H20;N12 Abstract: We study the macroeconomic effects of aggregate tax changes using more than 100 property tax changes in advanced economies identified through the narrative record, and a structural VAR approach. Both methodologies lead to very similar estimates of tax multipliers that are higher than 2. The motivation behind using property taxes is threefold. First, property taxes are in theory the least distortive of all taxes, which allows to interpret our tax multipliers in terms of disposable income effects, and not in terms of supply or incentive effects. Second, the base for property taxes is not contemporaneously affected by GDP, unlike other major tax revenues, which considerably eases inference both in the narrative and in the structural VAR approaches. Third, the effects of property tax changes inform more broadly on the consequences of policies shifting the user cost of owner-occupied housing (including monetary policy). It casts a new light on a growing literature investigating the links between housing and macroeconomics: our results suggest that house prices have a much more muted impact on macroeconomic aggregates than was previously believed. Creation-Date: 2018-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2018/wp2018-03.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2018-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The tale of two international phenomena: International migration and global imbalances Author-Name: Dramane Coulibaly Author-Name: Blaise Gnimassoun Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Keywords: International Migration;Current Account;Global Imbalances;Remittances Classification-JEL:F22;F32;O55;C33 Abstract: Following the dynamics of globalization, international migration has increased dramatically since the 1990s. Given that these migrations may obscure the natural demographic structure of nations, they are likely to explain a signifcant part of global imbalances. This paper tackles this issue by investigating the role played by international migration in the dynamics of global imbalances. To this end, we rely on an overlapping generations model to derive the theoretical relationship between international migration and current account position. Through a series of robust estimates, we empirically investigate this relationship by relying on a panel of 157 developed and developing countries over the period 1990-2014. Our results point to substantial effects of international migration. Specifcally, we show that an increase in migration improves national savings and the current account balance in the destination country, while it has opposite impacts in the origin country. These effects are particularly pronounced in developing economies, and attenuated by migrants' remittances. Creation-Date: 2018-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2018/wp2018-02.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2018-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Immigrant entrepreneurs, diasporas and exports Author-Name: Massimiliano Bratti Author-Name: Luca De Benedictis Author-Name: Gianluca Santoni Keywords: Exports;immigrants;gravity;immigrant entrepreneurs;Italy Classification-JEL:F10;F14;F22;R10 Abstract: In this paper we highlight a new complementary channel to the business and social network effect à la Rauch (2001) through which immigrants generate increased export flows from the regions in which they settle to their countries of origin: they can become entrepreneurs. Using very small-scale (NUTS-3) administrative data on immigrants’ location in Italy, the local presence of immigrant entrepreneurs (i.e. firms owned by foreign-born entrepreneurs) in the manufacturing sector, and on trade flows in manufacturing between Italian provinces and more than 200 foreign countries, we assess the causal relationship going from diasporas and immigrant entrepreneurs towards export flows. Both the size of the diaspora and the number of immigrant entrepreneurs have a positive, significant and economically meaningful effect on exports. In particular, we find that increasing the stock of (non-entrepreneur) immigrants by 10% would lead to a 1.7% increase in exports in manufacturing, while increasing the number of immigrant entrepreneurs in manufacturing by 10% would raise exports by about 0.6%. Creation-Date: 2018-01 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2018/wp2018-01.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2018-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Uncertainty and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from an Uncertainty Composite Indicator Author-Name: Amélie Charles Author-Name: Olivier Darné Author-Name: Fabien Tripier Keywords: Uncertainty;Dynamic Factor Model;Business Cycle Classification-JEL:C38;C32;E32 Abstract: This paper proposes an uncertainty composite indicator (UCI) based on three distinct sources of uncertainty (namely financial, political, and macroeconomic) for the US economy on the period 1985-2015. For that, we use the dynamic factor model proposed by Doz et al. (2012), summarizing efficiently six individual uncertainty proxies, namely two macroeconomic and financial uncertainty factors based on the unpredictability, a measure of (micro)economic uncertainty, the implied volatility index, the corporate bond spreads, and an index of economic policy uncertainty. We then compare the effects of uncertainty on economic activity when the UCI is used instead of individual uncertainty proxies in structural VAR models. The interest of our UCI is to synthesize theses effects within one measure of uncertainty. Overall, the UCI was able to account for the most important dynamics of uncertainty which play an important role in business cycles. We found that the individual uncertainty proxies based macro unpredictability and corporate bond spread are also important source in explaining the volatility of the macroeconomic variables. However, these two individual proxies are not the dominant source of fluctuations (compared to the other uncertainty variables) in some cases. Creation-Date: 2017-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2017/wp2017-25.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2017-25 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Breaking Away from Icebreakers: The Effect of Melting Distances on Trade and Welfare Author-Name: Jules Hugot Author-Name: Camilo Umana Dajud Keywords: Arctic Shipping;International Trade;Trade Costs;Distance Effect Classification-JEL:F14;F15 Abstract: This article assesses the effect of the opening of Arctic shipping routes on world trade patterns and welfare. We begin by computing shortest bilateral maritime distances with and without Arctic routes. Then, we predict trade flows by combining counterfactual distances with distance elasticities of trade estimated using historical episodes that also affected maritime distances. Our general equilibrium exercise extends beyond by using a structural gravity model that allows trade reallocation across country pairs. As a result, all country pairs are now affected by the opening of Arctic routes, including those for which bilateral distance remains unchanged. In our preferred estimation, world trade is predicted to increase by 0.32% and welfare by 0.02%. The positive effects concentrate in Europe and Northeast Asia, while minor losses affect countries in the Caribbean, West Africa, the Mediterranean and the Indian Ocean. Creation-Date: 2017-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2017/wp2017-24.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2017-24 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Corruption for Sales Author-Name: Matthieu Couttenier Author-Name: Farid Toubal Keywords: Multinational Firms;Corruption;FDI Classification-JEL:F44;F23 Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of corruption on foreign affiliates’ sales of German multinationals that differ in their level of experience in the foreign market. We exploit the panel dimension of a detailed firm-level dataset to show that more experienced firms are less likely to suffer from the costs related to corruption. Controlling for persistent and unobserved factors at the country and firm levels, we show that corruption reduces unambiguously the sales of new entering firms, while having no impact on the sales of incumbents. Creation-Date: 2017-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2017/wp2017-23.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2017-23 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Hierarchy of Trade and Sequential Exporting Author-Name: Vincent Boitier Author-Name: Antoine Vatan Keywords: Export Choice;Dispersion in Strategies;Experience as Exporter;Sequential Exporting Classification-JEL:f1 Abstract: Export destination baskets of exporting firms do not seem to follow the hierarchy predicted by heterogeneous firms models. Existing literature reconciles theory and data by incorporating additional components of heterogeneity. We first show that we do not need these components to bridge the gap between data and theory. We highlight a strong correlation between the respect of hierarchy and the age of the firm. Without taking into account the age of firms, what we observe in the data is not a drawback but a snapshot of the convergence toward theory's prediction. Second, we develop a simple dynamic model that features this convergence. Our theoretical argument is based upon sequential exporting (choosing one destination at a time) and upon a baseline trade-off between attractiveness and competition. Creation-Date: 2017-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2017/wp2017-22.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2017-22 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Regional Integration and Informal Trade in Africa: Evidence from Benin's Borders Author-Name: Cristina Mitaritonna Author-Name: Sami Bensassi Author-Name: Joachim Jarreau Keywords: Informal Trade;Regional Integration;Trade Facilitation;Evasion;Africa Classification-JEL:O17;F15;H26 Abstract: Regional trade is low in sub-saharan Africa. But a large share of regional trade is informal, i.e. not recorded in offcial data. This paper studies the relationship between trade barriers and informality of trade. We use an original survey of informal transactions across Benin's land borders, which provides the first direct and comprehensive account of trade volumes and product coverage for this type of trade. We combine this data with official trade records and exploit variation across products and countries to measure the impact of tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade on informality. Increasing tariffs on a given product by 10% makes it about 12% more likely that this product is imported informally rather than formally. Non-tariff measures also increase informality. Our results also suggest that compliance costs, aside from tariffs and regulations, contribute to explain informality. Creation-Date: 2017-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2017/wp2017-21.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2017-21 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Immigration and Electoral Support for the Far Left and the Far Right Author-Name: Anthony Edo Author-Name: Yvonne Giesing Author-Name: Jonathan Öztunc Author-Name: Panu Poutvaara Keywords: Voting;Immigration Classification-JEL:d72;f22;j15;p16 Abstract: Immigration has become one of the most divisive political issues in the United States, the United Kingdom, France and several other Western countries. We estimate the impact of immigration on voting for far-left and far-right parties in France, using panel data on presidential elections from 1988 to 2017. To derive causal estimates, we instrument more recent immigration flows by past settlement patterns in 1968. We find that immigration increases support for far-right candidates and has no robust effect on far-left voting. The increased support for far-right candidates is driven by low educated immigrants from non-Western countries. Creation-Date: 2017-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2017/wp2017-20.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2017-20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Some Doubts about the Economic Analysis of the Flow of Silver to China in 1550-1820 Author-Name: Jacques Melitz Keywords: Silver Flows into China 1550-1820;Silver/Gold Exchange Rates;Transaction Costs in International Trade Classification-JEL:N1;N15;N25;F36;F60 Abstract: The paper takes issue with the mainstream economic analysis of the enormous flow of silver into China in 1550-1820. First, I challenge the view that arbitrage between gold and silver in European trade with China was important except for one twenty-year spell. Next, I argue that had China imported gold, its history would have been much the same. I also dispute the idea that the persistence of the silver inflows from 1550 to 1820 implies any persistent disequilibrium, and I maintain that economic theory can easily accommodate the view that the inflow of silver into China sponsored growth in China. Creation-Date: 2017-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2017/wp2017-19.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2017-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: International Trade, Quality Sorting and Trade Costs: The Case of Cognac Author-Name: Charlotte Emlinger Author-Name: Viola Lamani Keywords: Quality Mix;Luxury Product;Distance;Tariffs Classification-JEL:F10;F13;F14 Abstract: This paper tests empirically the validity of the Alchian and Allen effect, using an original dataset of French Cognac exports by quality designations. More specifically we estimate the impact of trade costs on the share and relative price of high quality Cognac. The definition of quality, based on the minimum time in oak of the youngest eau-de-vie used in creating the blend, is subject to regulations and is constant and objective, which makes the case of Cognac particularly relevant to analyze the impact of different trade costs on the quality mix. Our estimation proceeds in two parts. First, we investigate to what extent distance and customs duties impact the Cognac quality mix from 1996 to 2013. Second, we assess the impact of a variation in trade costs, through the adoption of containerization, on the quality mix of Cognac exports between 1969 and 2013. Our results confirm the Alchian and Allen effect. We show that: (i) per-unit trade costs increase the share of high-quality Cognac and have the opposite impact on its relative price; (ii) ad-valorem charges impact negatively the share of high-quality Cognac and have a positive impact on its relative price. Creation-Date: 2017-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2017/wp2017-18.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2017-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Exporting Creative and Cultural Products: Birthplace Diversity Matters! Author-Name: Gianluca Orefice Author-Name: Gianluca Santoni Keywords: Creative Products;International Trade;Birthplace Diversity;Migration Classification-JEL:F14;F16;F22 Abstract: This paper analyses the effect of birthplace diversity on exports of creative and cultural goods, for 19 OECD countries, over the period 1990-2010. By matching UNESCO's creative and cultural exports classification to trade and migration data, we find a strong positive effect of birthplace diversity on the export of creative products. In particular, a 10% increase in the birthplace diversity index implies a 4% increase in creative goods export. These results are robust across several specifications and shed light on a potential new channel through which migrants can contribute to the host country's export performance. It is interesting to note that only diversity of secondary and tertiary educated immigrants contributes to an increase in exports of creative and cultural goods. An instrumental variables approach addresses the potential endogeneity problems and confirms our results. Creation-Date: 2017-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2017/wp2017-17.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2017-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Banks Defy Gravity in Tax Havens Author-Name: Vincent Bouvatier Author-Name: Gunther Capelle-Blancard Author-Name: Anne-Laure Delatte Keywords: Tax evasion;International banking;Tax havens;Country-by-country reporting Classification-JEL:F23;G21;H22;H32 Abstract: This paper provides the first quantitative assessment of the contribution of global banks in intermediating tax evasion. Applying gravity equations on a unique regulatory dataset based on comprehensive individual country-by-country reporting from all the Systemically Important Banks the European Union, we find that: 1) Tax havens generate a threefold extra presence of foreign banks; 2) The favorite destinations of tax evasion intermediated by European banks are Luxembourg and Monaco 3) British and German banks display the most aggressive strategies in tax havens; 4) New transparency requirements imposed in 2015 have not changed European banks commercial presence in tax havens; 5) Banks intermediate EUROS 550 billion of offshore deposits, that is 5% of their origin countries' GDP. Creation-Date: 2017-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2017/wp2017-16.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2017-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Trilemma, Dilemma and Global Players Author-Name: Samuel Ligonnière Keywords: Trilemma;Dilemma;Exchange-Rate Regime;Global Financial Cycle;Global Players Classification-JEL:E52;F32;F33;F38 Abstract: This paper investigates the debate between the Mundellian trilemma and the dilemma. It focuses on the active role of the exchange rate regime. Overall, the global financial cycle magnifies the binding effect of financial openness on monetary policy autonomy, thus at the same time sharply reducing the effectiveness of the floating exchange rate regime to isolate the domestic economy against financial pressures. We provide empirical evidence that the trilemma does not morph into a dilemma. Furthermore, the sensitivity to the global financial cycle depends less on the fluctuations of these financial forces than on the presence of global investors and global banks. Creation-Date: 2017-08 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2017/wp2017-15.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2017-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: EQCHANGE: A World Database on Actual and Equilibrium Effective Exchange Rates Author-Name: Cécile Couharde Author-Name: Anne-Laure Delatte Author-Name: Carl Grekou Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Author-Name: Florian Morvillier Keywords: Exchange Rates;Equilibrium Exchange Rates;Currency Misalignments Classification-JEL:F31;C23;C82 Abstract: The aim of this paper is to present EQCHANGE, the new database developed by the CEPII on effective exchange rates. EQCHANGE includes two sub-databases containing data on (i) nominal and real effective exchange rates, and (ii) equilibrium real effective exchange rates and corresponding currency misalignments for advanced, emerging and developing countries. More specifically, the first sub-database delivers effective exchange rates for 187 countries that are computed under three different weighting schemes and two panels of trading partners (186 and top 30) over the 1973-2016 period. The second sub-database provides behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) estimates and corresponding currency misalignments for 182 economies over the 1973-2016 period. We describe the construction of the two datasets and illustrate some possible uses by presenting results concerning the evolution and main characteristics of currency misalignments in the world from 2015 to 2016. By providing publicly available indicators of equilibrium exchange rates, EQCHANGE aims to contribute to key debates in international macroeconomics. Creation-Date: 2017-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2017/wp2017-14.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2017-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Impact of Immigration on Wage Dynamics: Evidence from the Algerian Independence War Author-Name: Anthony Edo Keywords: Labor Supply Shock,;Wages;Immigration;Natural Experiment. Classification-JEL:F22;J21;J61 Abstract: This paper investigates the dynamics of wage adjustment to an exogenous increase in labor supply by exploiting the sudden and unexpected inflow of repatriates to France created by the independence of Algeria in 1962. I track the impact of this particular supply shift on the average wage of pre-existing native workers across French regions in 1962, 1968 and 1976. I find that regional wages decline between 1962 and 1968, before returning to their pre-shock level 15 years after. While regional wages recovered, this particular supply shock had persistent distributional effects. By increasing the relative supply of high educated workers, the inflow of repatriates contributed to the reduction of wage inequality between high and low educated native workers over the whole period considered (1962-1976). Creation-Date: 2017-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2017/wp2017-13.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2017-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Minimum Wages and the Labor Market Effects of Immigration Author-Name: Anthony Edo Author-Name: Hillel Rapoport Keywords: immigration;minimum wages;labor markets Classification-JEL:F22;J61 Abstract: This paper exploits the non-linearity in the level of minimum wages across U.S. States created by the coexistence of federal and state regulations to investigate how the prevalence of minimum wages affects the labor market impact of immigration. We find that the effects of immigration on the wages and employment of native workers within a given state-skill cell are more negative in U.S. States with low minimum wages (i.e., where the federal minimum wage is binding). The results are robust to instrumenting immigration and state effective minimum wages, and to implementing a difference-in-differences approach comparing U.S. States where effective minimum wages are fully determined by the federal minimum wage over the whole period considered (2000-2013) to U.S. States where this is never the case. This paper thus underlines the important role played by minimum wages in mitigating any adverse labor market effects of low-skill immigration. Creation-Date: 2017-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2017/wp2017-12.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2017-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Agricultural Trade Liberalization in the 21st Century: Has it Done the Business? Author-Name: Jean-Christophe Bureau Author-Name: Houssein Guimbard Author-Name: Sébastien Jean Keywords: Tariffs;Regional Trade Agreements;Agricultural Trade Liberalization;WTO Classification-JEL:F10;F13;F14 Abstract: Based on a novel, detailed, time-consistent tariff database to take stock of developments regarding import protection in the agricultural sector since 2001, we propose a statistical decomposition of the changes in the various types of tariffs. The results show that the multilateral system has played a limited role in trade liberalization over the period. Many countries have continued to apply much lower tariffs on agricultural products than their WTO ceilings. Moreover, there has been substantial unilateral dismantling of tariffs over the period, so that much of the liberalization took place outside WTO and regional agreements. The number of regional trade agreements has surged, but their impact on applied agricultural tariffs has been limited. Finally, we investigate the tariffs, trade and production implications for food and agricultural products of two extreme scenarios in the future development of trade negotiations: an ambitious surge of regional agreements and a trade war within the WTO context. Creation-Date: 2017-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2017/wp2017-11.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2017-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Spatial Differencing: Estimation and Inference Author-Name: Federico Belotti Author-Name: Edoardo Di Porto Author-Name: Gianluca Santoni Keywords: Spatial Differencing;Boundary Discontinuity;Robust Inference;Dyadic Data Classification-JEL:C12;C21 Abstract: Spatial differencing is a spatial data transformation pioneered by Holmes (1998) increasingly used to estimate causal effects with non-experimental data. Recently, this transformation has been widely used to deal with omitted variable bias generated by local or site-specific unobservables in a "boundary-discontinuity" design setting. However, as well known in this literature, spatial differencing makes inference problematic. Indeed, given a specific distance threshold, a sample unit may be the neighbor of a number of units on the opposite side of a specific boundary inducing correlation between all differenced observations that share a common sample unit. By recognizing that the spatial differencing transformation produces a special form of dyadic data, we show that the dyadic-robust variance matrix estimator proposed by Cameron and Miller (2014) is, in general, a better solution compared to the most commonly used estimators. Creation-Date: 2017-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2017/wp2017-10.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2017-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Banks' leverage Procyclicality: Does Currency Diversification Matter? Author-Name: Justine Pedrono Author-Name: Aurélien Violon Keywords: banks;procyclicality;exchange rate;diversification;balance sheet;financial cycle;financial intermediaries Classification-JEL:F3;F4;G15 Abstract: Currency diversification, which measures how much of assets are denominated in foreign currency, introduces a credit risk diversification and a valuation effect due to fluctuations of exchange rate. It affects banks' leverage responsiveness to the value of assets, namely the leverage procyclicality. Using novel micro data on banks' exposures, we confront theoretical conclusions by focusing on the US dollar diversification of banks located in France between 1999 and 2015. Distinguishing between commercial and investment banks, our analysis first supports previous empirical results where investment banks are more pro-cyclical than commercial banks. Second, our results show that the largest pro-cyclicality of investment banks comes from the effect of currency diversification, especially from the valuation effect of currency diversification which increases procyclicality. Finally, our results confirm the theoretical prediction where a currency mismatch does not strongly affect leverage procyclicality. Our conclusions support the idea that currency diversification is relevant to micro and especially macro-prudential policy. Creation-Date: 2017-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2017/wp2017-09.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2017-09 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: On the seemingly incompleteness of exchange rate pass-through to import prices: Do globalization and/or regional trade matter? Author-Name: Antonia Lopez-Villavicencio Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Keywords: Exchange rate pass-through;Import prices;Globalization;Eurozone Classification-JEL:E31;F31;F4;C22 Abstract: This paper assesses the impact of globalization on exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into import prices in three core eurozone countries. To this end, we consider various indicators of globalization and rely on both aggregated (i.e., country level) and disaggregated (i.e., good level) data. Using quarterly data since 1992, we do not find compelling evidence that global factors cause a structural change in the degree of exchange rate pass-through. Indeed, increased trade openness or lower trade tariffs push up ERPT in some sectors, though results are quite sparse. However, regionalization, defined as a higher proportion of intra-EU imports' share in total imports, reduces the pass-through in a more generalized way. Most importantly, we show that ERPT incompleteness generally observed in the literature is in appearance only and not at play when intra-EU trade is controlled for. Overall, our findings show that ERPT is complete and significant in numerous sectors, meaning that exchange rate changes still exert important pressure on domestic prices. Creation-Date: 2017-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2017/wp2017-08.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2017-08 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: On the Current Account - Biofuels Link in Emerging and Developing Countries: Do Oil Price Fluctuations Matter? Author-Name: Gabriel Gomes Author-Name: Emmanuel Hache Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Author-Name: Anthony Paris Keywords: Biofuels;Oil;Current Account;Panel Smooth Transition Regression Classification-JEL:Q16;Q43;F32;C23 Abstract: Many developed countries promote the use of biofuels for environmental concerns, leading to a rise in the price of agricultural commodities utilized in their production. Such environmental policies have major effects on the economy of emerging and developing countries whose activity is highly dependent on agricultural commodities involved in biofuel production. This paper tackles this issue by examining the price impact of biofuels on the current account for a panel of 16 developing and emerging countries, and the potential nonlinear effect exerted by the price of oil on this relationship. Relying on the estimation of panel smooth-transition regression models, we show that positive shocks in the price of biofuels lead to a current-account appreciation for agricultural commodity exporters and producers only when the price of oil is below a certain threshold. When the price of oil exceeds this threshold, fluctuations in the price of biofuels no longer affect the current account. These findings illustrate that a rise in the price of oil exerts a negative effect on the trade balance of commodity exporters which are also oil importers, dampening the biofuel price impact on the current-account position. Creation-Date: 2017-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2017/wp2017-07.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2017-07 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Banking Leverage Procyclicality: a Theoretical Model Introducing Currency Diversification Author-Name: Justine Pedrono Keywords: Financial intermediary;leverage;procyclicality;currency;diversification;Value-at-Risk;exchange rate Classification-JEL:f36;g15;g21;g32 Abstract: The brutal adjustments to global banks' balance sheets in the wake of the recent economic crisis have rekindled interest in the procyclicality of banking leverage. This paper extends Adrian and Shin (2014) by allowing banks to hold assets and liabilities denominated in foreign currency. It investigates the procyclicality of banking leverage relative to the currency diversification of banks' balance sheet. Therefore, it provides a complete theoretical framework that explains heterogeneity in financial cycles when focusing on currency exposures. Our results show that the Value-at-Risk rule followed by banks is still validated when currency diversification is introduced. However, currency diversification changes leverage procyclicality where the decrease or increase in leverage procyclicality relative to the home economy will depend on the type of shock. To the extent that changes in state of nature are asymmetric, currency diversification of assets associated with floating exchange rate regime then increases the risk-taking capacity of banks. Creation-Date: 2017-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2017/wp2017-06.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2017-06 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Nutrition transition and the structure of global food demand Author-Name: Christophe Gouel Author-Name: Houssein Guimbard Keywords: Bennett’s law;food demand;food security;nutrition transition Classification-JEL:D12;Q11 Abstract: Estimating future demand for food is a critical aspect of global food security analyses. The process linking dietary changes to wealth is known as the nutrition transition and presents well-identified features that help to predict consumption changes in poor countries. This study proposes to represent the nutrition transition with a nonhomothetic, flexible-in-income, demand system, known as the Modified Implicitly Directly Additive Demand System (MAIDADS). The resulting model is transparent and estimated statistically based on cross-sectional information from FAOSTAT. It captures the main features of the nutrition transition: rise in demand for calories associated with income growth; diversification of diets away from starchy staples; and a large increase in caloric demand for animal-based products, fats, and sweeteners. The estimated model is used to project food demand between 2010 and 2050 based on a set of plausible futures (trend projections and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios). The main results of these projections are as follows: (1) global food demand will increase by 46%, less than half the growth in the previous four decades; (2) this growth will be attributable mainly to lower-middle-income and low-income countries; (3) the structure of global food demand will change over the period, with a 95% increase in demand for animal-based calories and a much smaller 18% increase in demand for starchy staples; and (4) the analysis of a range of population and income projections reveals important uncertainties: depending on the scenario, the projected increases in demand for animal-based and vegetal-based calories range from 78 to 109% and from 20 to 42%, respectively. Creation-Date: 2017-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2017/wp2017-05.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2017-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Role of Fees in Foreign Education: Evidence From Italy and the United Kingdom Author-Name: Michel Beine Author-Name: Marco Delogu Author-Name: Lionel Ragot Keywords: Foreign Students;Tuition Fees;Location Choice;University Quality Classification-JEL:F22;H52;I23;O15 Abstract: This working paper studies the determinants of international students’ mobility at the university level, focusing specifically on the role of tuition fees. We derive a gravity model based on a Random Utility Maximization model of location choice for international students in the presence of capacity constraints of the hosting institutions. The last layer of the model is estimated using new data on student migration flows at the university level for Italy and the United Kingdom. The particular institutional setting of the two destination countries allows us to control for the potential endogeneity of tuition fees. We obtain evidence for a clear and negative effect of fees on international student mobility and confirm the positive impact of the quality of the education. The estimations also support the important role of additional destination-specific variables such as host capacity, the expected return of education and the cost of living in the vicinity of the university. Creation-Date: 2017-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2017/wp2017-04.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2017-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The International Elasticity Puzzle Is Worse Than You Think Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Philippe Martin Author-Name: Gianluca Orefice Keywords: Elasticity;International Trade and Macroeconomics;Export Price;Firm exports Classification-JEL:F14;F18;Q56 Abstract: We estimate three international price elasticities using exporters data: the elasticity of firm exports to export price, tariff and real exchange rate shocks. In standard trade and international macroeconomics models these three elasticities should be equal. We find that this is far from being the case. We use French firm level electricity costs to instrument for export prices and provide a first estimate of the elasticity of firm-level exports to export prices. The elasticity of exports is highest, around 5, for export prices followed by tariffs, around 2, and is lowest for the real exchange rate, around 0.6. The large discrepancy between these elasticities makes us conclude that the international elasticity puzzle is actually worse than previously thought. Moreover, we show that because exporters absorb part of tariffs and exchange rate movements, estimates of export elasticities that do not take into account export prices are biased. Creation-Date: 2017-02 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2017/wp2017-03.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2017-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Domestic transport costs, Canada, and the Panama Canal Author-Name: Camilo Umana Dajud Keywords: Trade Costs;Infrastructure;Panama Canal;Canada;Welfare effects Classification-JEL:O18;R12;R42 Abstract: By reducing transport costs infrastructure can impact wages, the distribution of population and welfare among other important variables. In this paper I exploit a natural experiment provided by the opening of the Panama Canal and intercoastal cargo routes connecting the west and east coasts of Canada through the canal to examine the causal impact of a reduction of domestic trade costs. The particular characteristics of this setting allow me to estimate the causal impact without recurring to instrumental variable strategies. The estimates are also not confounded with the Keynesian effect of building new infrastructure since no infrastructure was actually setup in Canada. Using least cost path routes along the Canadian transport grid I determine treated municipalities. The paper documents the positive impact of the reduction of transport costs on population and the value of real property but a negative impact on nominal wages. I then use a simplified version of an economic geography model with perfect mobility of workers to compute domestic trade shares between Canadian municipalities and productivities at the municipal level. I use these empirical results and the model, to quantify general equilibrium changes in wages, population and trade shares triggered by the reduction in domestic transport costs. Finally, I show that the opening of intercoastal shipping routes had a large positive welfare effect across Canadian municipalities. Creation-Date: 2017-02 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2017/wp2017-02.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2017-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Structure of Income Inequality and Household Leverage: Theory and Cross-Country Evidence Author-Name: Rémi Bazillier Author-Name: Jérôme Héricourt Author-Name: Samuel Ligonnière Keywords: Credit;Finance;Income Inequality;Inequality structure Classification-JEL:D31;E25;E44;G01 Abstract: How do income inequality and its structure affect the volume of credit? We extend the theoretical framework by Kumhof et al. (2015) to distinguish between upper, middle and low-income classes, and show that most of the positive impact of inequality on credit predicted by Kumhof et al. (2015) should be driven by the share of total output owned by middle classes. These theoretical predictions are empirically confirmed by a study based on a 44 countries dataset over the period 1970-2012. Exogenous variations of inequality are identified with a new instrument variable, the total number of International Labor Organization conventions signed at the country-level. Using various indicators of inequality, we support a positive impact of inequality concentrated on household leverage, and investigate how this average impact is distorted along income distribution. Consistently with the theoretical setting, our results tend to show that most of the impact is driven by middle classes, rather than low-income households. Consistently, our results hold mostly for developed countries. Creation-Date: 2017-02 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2017/wp2017-01.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2017-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Do Visas Hinder International Trade in Goods? Author-Name: Camilo Umana Dajud Keywords: International Trade;Trade Costs;Visas Classification-JEL:F14;F23;F63 Abstract: Travel visas impose additional costs to firms when engaging in international trade. This paper exploits a natural experiment provided by Schengen agreements to document a causal impact and examine how much trade in goods is affected. I show that visas have a large negative impact on bilateral trade flows. The introduction of a visa to enter the Schengen Space considerably reduced bilateral trade flows between Ecuador and Bolivia and members of the Schengen space. I also find that the negative impact of visas is much larger for differentiated than for homogeneous products and that visas reduce the number of new products exported to a given market. By applying a general equilibrium framework, the paper shows that removing visas would increase welfare by nearly 10% for some sub-Saharan African countries and by 1,5 % on average for developing countries. For policy makers this paper highlights the importance of including visa facilitation schemes into the provisions of trade agreements and other economic partnerships. Creation-Date: 2016-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2016/wp2016-30.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2016-30 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Trade costs and the Suez and Panama Canals Author-Name: Jules Hugot Author-Name: Camilo Umana Dajud Keywords: Distance elasticity;Distance Puzzle;Gravity;Suez Canal;Panama Canal;Welfare effects of trade Classification-JEL:F14;F15;N70 Abstract: Current estimates offer a puzzling picture of the magnitude and historical evolution of the distance elasticity of trade. We take advantage of historical episodes that changed bilateral distance to estimate the distance elasticity in the time dimension and characterize its evolution over time. The openings of the Suez and Panama Canals -- as well as the closure of the Suez Canal from 1967 to 1975 -- allow us to control for unobserved time-invariant country pair characteristics in a gravity setting. Our estimates show that the impact of distance on trade remains particularly low, even if it has increased during the last half century. These results reconcile the distance elasticity of trade with its two components: the elasticity of trade to trade costs and the elasticity of trade costs to distance. In a second stage, we use these estimates to quantify the trade and welfare effects associated with the openings of the Suez and Panama Canals. We also perform the counterfactual exercise of closing the Panama Canal in 2012 to evaluate its current welfare effect. Creation-Date: 2016-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2016/wp2016-29.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2016-29 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Finance and Growth: From the Business Cycle to the Long Run Author-Name: Thomas Grjebine Author-Name: Fabien Tripier Keywords: Growth;Business Cycles;Hysteresis;Financial Cycles;Growth Cycles Classification-JEL:E32;E44 Abstract: This paper proposes a new methodology to assess the long-run relationship between economic and financial growth. By linking long-run growth to the properties of business cycles, this methodology offers a better understanding of the channels through which finance can impact long-term growth. We first define the direct elasticity between financial and economic growth to measure the contemporaneous effect of financial growth. If financial booms make recessions more severe, losses of growth during recessions are low when compared with growth supplements during expansions. Beyond this contemporaneous effect of financial booms, we identify a persistent effect of financial growth detrimental to subsequent cycles, which is referred as a hysteresis phenomenon. Then, financial and economic growth rates are positively correlated only up to a certain threshold of financial activity. In our panel of economies, the average level of financial activity is well above this threshold, implying that the total elasticity between finance and growth is negative in the long run. Creation-Date: 2016-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2016/wp2016-28.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2016-28 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Local Financial Development and constraints on private firms' exports: EvACidence from City Commercial Banks in China Author-Name: Zhao Chen Author-Name: Sandra Poncet Author-Name: Ruixiang Xiong Keywords: City Commercial Banks;Local Fnancial Development;China;Financial Constraints;Export Performance Classification-JEL:F10;F14;F36;G32 Abstract: We provide evidence that the development of city commercial banks (CCBs) across China has alleviated the restraining effect of China's domestic financial market inefficiency on the export activity of domestic private firms. Looking at the export behavior of 260 cities between 1997 and 2012 we confirm the well-established under-performance of domestic private firms in financially more vulnerable sectors compared to foreign affiliates in China. We show that a larger number of city commercial banks' branches raises domestic private firms' export disproportionately more in financially dependent sectors, so as to reduce the systematic disadvantage of domestic private firms over foreign-owned firms in export markets related to their greater financial exclusion. We however find that the private firms export performance has deteriorated relative to that of state-owned firms casting doubt on the capacity of development of CCBs to put an end to the systematic bias of lending in favor of the state sector. Creation-Date: 2016-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2016/wp2016-27.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2016-27 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Effect of Labor Migration on the Diffusion of Democracy: Evidence from a Former Soviet Republic Author-Name: Toman Barsbai Author-Name: Hillel Rapoport Author-Name: Andreas Steinmayr Author-Name: Christoph Trebesch Keywords: Emigration;Political institutions;Elections;Social networks;Information transmission;Cultural diffusion Classification-JEL:F22;D72;O1 Abstract: Migration contributes to the circulation of goods, knowledge, and ideas. Using community and individual-level data from Moldova, we show that the emigration wave that started in the aftermath of the Russian crisis of 1998 strongly affected electoral outcomes and political preferences in Moldova during the following decade, eventually contributing to the fall of the last Communist government in Europe. Our results are suggestive of information transmission and cultural diffusion channels. Identification relies on the quasi-experimental context and on the differential effects arising from the fact that emigration was directed both to more democratic Western Europe and to less democratic Russia. Creation-Date: 2016-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2016/wp2016-26.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2016-26 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Growth-enhancing Effect of Openness to Trade and Migrations: What is the Effective Transmission Channel for Africa Author-Name: Dramane Coulibaly Author-Name: Blaise Gnimassoun Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Keywords: Trade;International migration;Income per person;Africa Classification-JEL:F22;F4;O4;O55 Abstract: This paper investigates the growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and to migration by focusing on African countries. Relying on robust estimation techniques dealing with both endogeneity and omitted variables issues, our results show a varying impact of openness for Africa depending on the type of the partner country. Specifically, while trade between Africa and industrialized countries has a clear and robust positive impact on Africa's standards of living, trade with developing countries fails to be growth-enhancing. Moreover, our findings show that migration has no significant effect on per capita income in Africa regardless of the partner. Finally, exploring the trade openness transmission channel, we establish that the growth-enhancing effect of Africa's trade with industrialized countries mainly occurs through an improvement in total factor productivity. Creation-Date: 2016-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2016/wp2016-25.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2016-25 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Agglomeration Economies and Firm Level Labor Misallocation Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Gianluca Santoni Keywords: Misallocation;Agglomeration;Productivity;Firm Level Data Classification-JEL:D24;R12;L25;O47 Abstract: A large portion of productivity differentials among locations is related to density. Firms located in denser areas are more productive due to agglomeration economies (Combes et al., 2012a). We provide in this paper an explanation of such economies: lower input misallocation. The distribution of resources among heterogeneous fi rms has relevant consequences on allocative effi ciency and denser areas provide a more favorable environment for dynamic matching between employers and employees. Using a methodology proposed by Petrin and Sivadasan (2013) we are able to assess the degree of resource misallocation among fi rms within sectors for each of the 96 French “Départements” and 347 Employment Areas (commuting zones). Based on fi rm-level productivity estimates, we identify in the gap between the value of the marginal product and marginal input price the degree of inputs allocation at the fi rm level. Over the period 1993-2007 the average gap at fi rm level is around 9 thousands euro, showing a relevant increase starting from the early 2000s. Importantly, fi rms’ misallocations are lower in denser areas, suggesting that the matching mechanism is playing a role in explaining the productivity premium of agglomerated locations. Creation-Date: 2016-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2016/wp2016-24.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2016-24 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Markets are Smart! Structural Reforms and Country Risk Author-Name: Christopher Findlay Author-Name: Silvia Sorescu Author-Name: Camilo Umana Dajud Keywords: Structural Reform;Risk Premiums;Sovereign Debt Classification-JEL:F34;G12;G15;H63 Abstract: The level of public debt and other macroeconomic fundamentals are the main variables used in economic literature to explain the evolution of sovereign debt risk premiums. We show that the evolution of sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) is explained not only by the evolution of these fundamentals, but also by the structural capacity of countries to grow. Introducing a set of structural capacity variables along debt-to-GDP ratio in estimations explains a much higher share of the variation in the CDS data. Moreover, we show that all optimal models to predict the behavior of risk premiums (defined by the residual sum of squares and common information criteria) include several variables describing the growth potential of countries. Many of the optimal models include only structural capacity variables. The results suggest that markets take into account the future benefits of structural reforms when evaluating the risk of investing in sovereign debt. Creation-Date: 2016-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2016/wp2016-23.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2016-23 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Third Country Effect of Migration: the Trade-Migration Nexus Revisited Author-Name: Erik Figueiredo Author-Name: Luiz Renato Lima Author-Name: Gianluca Orefice Keywords: Trade-Migration;Third-Country Effect;Quantile Regression;Imputation Classification-JEL:F14;C21;C36 Abstract: This paper proposes a new channel through which migrants can affect the import demand of the host country. In migrating from origin to destination country, migrants observe a change in the prices of the bundle of consumable goods. In particular, the migration decision can reflect a reduction in the price of imported goods (due to lower applied tariff) for the consumption bundle of migrants: emigration towards less (tariff) protected countries allows the consumption of products that were prohibitively protected in the origin countries of migrants. To test this channel we estimate the import demand effect of migrant groups coming from third high (tariff) protected countries. We use a theory-grounded gravity estimations and a fresh econometric techniques able to address both the zero migration flows problem and the endogeneity of migrants. Our results suggest that such a third-country immigrant effect is significant and positive. Creation-Date: 2016-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2016/wp2016-22.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2016-22 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Impact of Offshoring and Migration Policies on Migration Flows Author-Name: Cosimo Beverelli Author-Name: Gianluca Orefice Author-Name: Nadia Rocha Keywords: Migrant Employment;Migration-Offshoring Substitutability;Migration Diversion Classification-JEL:F22;F23 Abstract: In a theoretical framework that extends Ottaviano et al. (2013) to three countries, we investigate two research questions. First, whether offshore workers directly compete with migrants from the same origin country to perform tasks of low/medium complexity (migration-offshoring substitutability). Second, whether migrants from different origin countries compete among each other (migration diversion). These questions are addressed empirically using a dataset covering 28 OECD high-income countries (as destinations of migrants flows) and 144 non high-income countries (as origins of migrant flows) for the period 1996-2010. The empirical results suggest strong direct substitutability between migrant and offshore workers from the same origin country and the absence of policy driven migration diversion across different origin countries. Creation-Date: 2016-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2016/wp2016-21.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2016-21 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Estimated Tariff Equivalents of Services NTMs Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Cristina Mitaritonna Author-Name: José E. Signoret Keywords: Non-Tariff Measures;Trade in Services;Ad-valorem Equivalents Classification-JEL:f13;f14 Abstract: Quantifying the restrictiveness of NTMs for services has proven to be difficult. The main limitation has been the lack of comprehensive data, whether trade, policy, or microeconomic data. A first solution is to use a STRI approach whereby qualitative information is arbitrarily transformed into a quantitative measure of the restrictiveness of each measure. We use here a reduced form of the gravity approach to estimate services trade without relying on STRI information. Our results compare with those of Fontagné, Guillin, and Mitaritonna (2011) for the year 2004. We use the same method, for a larger set of countries. The tariff equivalents are inferred by comparing the inward multilateral resistance term for each country with that of a benchmark country. We provide ad valorem equivalents of restrictions on trade in services for 117 countries in 2011 using GTAP data of trade in services. Creation-Date: 2016-08 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2016/wp2016-20.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2016-20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Do Uncertainty Shocks Always Matter for Business Cycles? Author-Name: Stéphane Lhuissier Author-Name: Fabien Tripier Keywords: Uncertainty Shocks;Regime Switch;Financial Frictions;Expectation Effects Classification-JEL:c32;e32;e44 Abstract: The answer to the title question is no. Fitting a Markov-switching structural vector autoregression to U.S. data, we show that uncertainty affects real economy differentially depending on the state of financial markets; e.g., an adverse shock that causes a 10 percentage points increase in the VIX index implies a one percent output decline in a regime of financial stress, but effects that are close to zero in tranquil regime. We use this evidence to estimate key parameters of a business cycle model, in which agents are aware of the possibility of regime switches in the transmission mechanism. We show that the differences in dynamics across regimes do not only result from changes in the degree of financial frictions, but also on agents’ expectations around these changes. Pessimistic expectations about future financial conditions amplify contractionary effects of uncertainty shocks on aggregate activity. Creation-Date: 2016-08 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2016/wp2016-19.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2016-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Let's Try Next Door: Technical Barriers to Trade and Multi-destination Firms Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Gianluca Orefice Keywords: Non-tariff measures;TBT;Multi-destination Firms;Trade Margins Classification-JEL:F13;F14 Abstract: Stringent Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) are expected to drive exporters out of the markets imposing these hurdles. However their impact will vary, with some exporters being able to refocus on TBT-free markets. By matching a database of TBT measures raised as concerns at the WTO (Specific Trade Concerns -- STCs), with a firm-level panel of French exporters, we show the complex effects of restrictive TBT measures on the different margins of trade. We show that the negative effect of TBT on export participation is magnified for multi-destination firms, which can divert their exports towards TBT-free destinations. Moreover, we conduct aggregate level estimations to show that the effect of stringent TBTs in reducing export flows is magnified in more homogeneous sectors. Observing the shape of the firm distribution at sectoral level and the aggregate elasticity of export to trade cost, we shed light on the fixed component of the additional cost imposed by TBTs on exporters. Creation-Date: 2016-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2016/wp2016-18.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2016-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Product Mix and Firm Productivity Responses to Trade Competition Author-Name: Thierry Mayer Author-Name: Marc Melitz Author-Name: Gianmarco Ottaviano Keywords: Multiproduct Firms;Productivity;Trade Classification-JEL:F1 Abstract: We document how demand shocks in export markets lead French multi-product exporters to re-allocate the mix of products sold in those destinations. In response to positive demand shocks, those French firms skew their export sales towards their best performing products; and also extend the range of products sold to that market. We develop a theoretical model of multi-product firms and derive the specific demand and cost conditions needed to generate these product-mix reallocations. Our theoretical model highlights how the increased competition from demand shocks in export markets-and the induced product mix reallocations-induce productivity changes within the firm. We then empirically test for this connection between the demand shocks and the productivity of multi-product firms exporting to those destinations. We find that the effect of those demand shocks on productivity are substantial-and explain an important share of aggregate productivity fluctuations for French manufacturing. Creation-Date: 2016-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2016/wp2016-17.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2016-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Collateral Damage: The impact of the Russia sanctions on sanctioning countries’ exports Author-Name: Matthieu Crozet Author-Name: Julian Hinz Keywords: International Trade;Diplomatic sanctions;Trade finance;Boycott Classification-JEL:F14 Abstract: Economic sanctions are a frequent instrument of foreign policy. In a diplomatic conflict, they aim to elicit a change in the policies of foreign governments by damaging their economy. However, sanctions are not costless for the sending economy, where domestic firms involved in business with the target countries might incur collateral damages. This paper evaluates these costs in terms of export losses of the diplomatic crisis that started in 2014 between the Russian Federation and 37 countries, (including the United States, the EU, and Japan) over the Ukrainian conflict. We first gauge the global impact of the sanctions' regime using a structural gravity framework and quantify the trade losses in a general equilibrium counterfactual analysis. We estimate this loss at US\$60.2 billion from 2014 until mid-2015. Interestingly, we find that the bulk of the impact stems from products that are not directly targeted by Russian retaliations (taking the form of an embargo on imports of agricultural products). This result suggests that most of the losses are not attributable to the Russian retaliation but to Western sanctions. We then investigate the underlying mechanism at the firm level using French customs data. Results indicate that neither consumer boycotts nor perceived country risk can account for the decline in exports of products that are not targeted by the Russian embargo. Instead, the disruption of the provision of trade finance services is found to have played an important role. Creation-Date: 2016-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2016/wp2016-16.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2016-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The March of the Techies: Technology, Trade, and Job Polarization in France, 1994-2007 Author-Name: James Harrigan Author-Name: Ariell Reshef Author-Name: Farid Toubal Keywords: job polarization;technological change;offshoring;skill bias;firm level data Classification-JEL:J2;O3;D3;F1;F16;F66 Abstract: Using administrative employee-firm-level data on the entire private sector from 1994 to 2007, we show that the labor market in France has polarized: employment shares of high and low wage occupations have grown, while middle wage occupations have shrunk. During the same period, the share of hours worked in technology-related occupations ("techies") grew substantially, as did imports and exports, and we explore the causal links between these trends. Our paper is among the first to analyze polarization in any country using firm-level data, and we show how polarization occurred within firms, but mostly due to changes in the composition of firms (between firms). Motivated by the fact that technology adoption is mediated by technically qualified managers and technicians, we use a new measure of the propensity of a firm to adopt new technology: its employment share of techies. Using the subsample of firms that are active over the whole period, we show that firms with more techies in 2002 saw greater polarization, and grew faster, from 2002 to 2007. Offshoring reduced employment growth. Among blue- collar workers in manufacturing, importing caused skill upgrading while exporting caused skill downgrading. To control for the endogeneity of firm-level techies and trade in 2002, we use values of techies and trade from 1994 to 1998 as instruments. We conclude that technological change, mediated through techies, is an important cause of polarization in France. Firm-level trade had important effects in manufacturing. Creation-Date: 2016-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2016/wp2016-15.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2016-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Two Centuries of Bilateral Trade and Gravity Data: 1827-2014 Author-Name: Michel Fouquin Author-Name: Jules Hugot Keywords: Gravity;Bilateral Trade;Aggregate Trade;GDP;Exchange Rates Classification-JEL:C8;F1;N70 Abstract: This document provides a detailed description of the Historical Bilateral Trade and Gravity Data set (TRADHIST) that was put together for Fouquin and Hugot (2016) and designed for historical investigations of international trade. The data set is available on the website of CEPII. Specifically, the data set has been built to explore the two modern waves of globalization: the First Globalization of the nineteenth century and the post-World War II Second Globalization. The data set gathers five types of variables: i) bilateral nominal trade flows, ii) country-level aggregate nominal exports and imports, iii) nominal GDPs, iv) exchange rates, and v) bilateral factors that are known to favor or hamper trade, including geographical distance, common borders, colonial and linguistic links, as well as bilateral tariffs. This data is unique both in terms of temporal and geographical coverage. Overall, we gather more than 1.9 million bilateral trade observations for the 188 years from 1827 to 2014. We also provide about 42,000 observations on aggregate trade, and about 14,000 observations on GDPs and exchange rates respectively. Creation-Date: 2016-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2016/wp2016-14.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2016-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Back to the Future: International Trade Costs and the Two Globalizations Author-Name: Michel Fouquin Author-Name: Jules Hugot Keywords: Globalization;Trade Costs;Border Effect;Distance Effect Classification-JEL:F14;F15;N70 Abstract: This article provides an assessment of the nineteenth century trade globalization based on a systematic collection of bilateral trade statistics. Drawing on a new data set of more than 1.9 million bilateral trade observations for the 1827-2014 period, we show that international trade costs fell more rapidly than intra-national trade costs from the 1840s until the eve of World War I. This finding questions the role played by late nineteenth century improvements in transportation and liberal trade policies in sparking this First Globalization. We use a theory-grounded measure to assess bilateral relative trade costs. Those trade costs are then aggregated to obtain world indices as well as indices along various trade routes, which show that the fall of trade costs began in Europe before extending to the rest of the world. We further explore the geographical heterogeneity of trade cost dynamics by estimating a border effect and a distance effect. We find a dramatic rise in the distance effect for both the nineteenth century and the post-World War II era. This result shows that both modern waves of globalization have been primarily fueled by a regionalization of world trade. Creation-Date: 2016-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2016/wp2016-13.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2016-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Competing Liberalizations: Tariffs and Trade in the 21st Century Author-Name: Jean-Christophe Bureau Author-Name: Houssein Guimbard Author-Name: Sébastien Jean Keywords: Regional Trade Agreements;Unilateral Liberalization;Doha Development Agenda;WTO Classification-JEL:F10;F13;F14 Abstract: This paper proposes a unique overview of trade policies trends since the launch of the Doha Round, based on detailed data on tariffs and trade covering 130 countries. We show that regionalism has delivered limited effective liberalization so far, leading to only a 0.3 percentage point (p.p.) cut in the worldwide average applied tariff duty between 2001 and 2013. WTO commitments (1.0 p.p. average cut) and unilateral liberalizations on a most-favored-nation (MFN) basis (1.3 p.p.) mattered far more on average, with more uneven consequences. As a result, we reckon that trade policy changes between 2001 and 2013 more than halved the worldwide welfare gains to be expected from the tariff-cutting provisions of the hypothetical Doha Agreement. If all ongoing RTA negotiations were concluded, expected gains would fall to one-third of their 2001 level. Creation-Date: 2016-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2016/wp2016-12.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2016-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: On the impact of dollar movements on oil currencies Author-Name: Gabriel Gomes Keywords: Oil Price;Oil Currencies;Non-linearities Classification-JEL:C33;F31;Q43 Abstract: This paper investigates to which extent dollar real exchange rate fluctuations explain the unexpected divergent movement between the real exchange rate of oil exporting countries and the price of oil in certain periods. Estimating a panel cointegrating model for 11 OPEC and 5 major oil exporting countries over the 1980-2014 period, we find evidence to support they have oil currencies in the long term. In fact, a 10% increase in the price of oil leads to a 2.1% appreciation of their real exchange rate. To analyse how swings on the dollar exchange rate affect the co-movement between the two variables in the short run, we rely on a non-linear approach and estimate a panel smooth transition regression model. Results show that, in the short term, oil currencies move in concert with the price of oil only if the dollar appreciation is lower than 2.6%. After the dollar appreciates beyond this threshold, the real exchange rate of oil exporting economies is rather negatively affected by the price of oil. Creation-Date: 2016-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2016/wp2016-11.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2016-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Climate and finance systemic risks, more than an analogy? The climate fragility hypothesis Author-Name: Michel Aglietta Author-Name: Etienne Espagne Keywords: Systemic Risk;Climate Fragilit;Monetary Policy;Macroprudential Policy;COP21 Classification-JEL:Q51;Q54;Q58;E42;E44 Abstract: In this paper, we develop the notion of climate systemic risk. Climate change is usually considered as a negative externality, against which society can insure itself through a carbon tax or an emission trading market. But except under the unrealistic efficient market hypothesis, there is little chance that such a simple approach to climate policy succeeds in mitigating climate damages. Financial and climate fragility reinforce each other. We argue that in concrete economies, a collective insurance approach to climate change has to target the financial sector, as well as its articulation with monetary policy. As in the financial world, climate change thus constitutes a systemic risk against which specific ex ante and ex post monetary policies and financial regulations should be deployed. The Paris Agreement of COP21 ignores the policy consequences of such an approach to the climate threat, but the exegesis of the text still offers some indispensable pillars to promote a new financial order mitigating climate systemic risk. Creation-Date: 2016-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2016/wp2016-10.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2016-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: A European Disease? Non-tradable inflation and real interest rate divergence Author-Name: Sophie Piton Keywords: Non-tradable prices;Balassa-Samuelson effect;Real interest rate Classification-JEL:F41;F45;E43 Abstract: This paper studies the contribution of real interest rate divergence to the dynamics of the relative price of non-tradables within Europe. Based on a model by De Gregorio et al. (1994), it shows that the real interest rate fall in the Euro Area (EA) periphery following the single currency's inception induced an increase in the relative price of non-tradable goods. Using a new dataset, it documents the dynamics of the tradable and the non-tradable sectors over 1995-2013 and the expansion of the non-tradable sector in the periphery before the euro crisis. It then carries out an econometric estimation for 11 EA countries over 1995-2013 and quantifies the contribution of the pure Balassa-Samuelson effect and the impact of the interest rate on non-tradable relative prices. Diverging evolution in the interest rate impacted greatly the evolution of non-tradable relative prices within the euro area over the period. In Greece, the fall in the real interest rate over 1995-2008 could explain almost half of the non-tradable price increase relative to the EA average, while in Germany the increase in the real interest rate might have contributed up to 7% of the decrease of the non-tradable price relative to the average of the EA. Creation-Date: 2016-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2016/wp2016-09.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2016-09 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Making (Small) Firms Happy. The Heterogeneous Effect of Trade Facilitation Measures Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Gianluca Orefice Author-Name: Roberta Piermartini Keywords: Trade Facilitation;Heterogeneous Firms;Extensive Margin;Intensive Margin Classification-JEL:F13;F14 Abstract: This paper considers the asymmetric effect of Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) policies on heterogeneous exporters, based on matching a detailed panel of French firm exports to a new database of Trade Facilitation Indicators (TFIs) released recently by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). We analyze the effect of these TFIs on three trade-related outcomes: (i) exported value (firm intensive margin), (ii) number of products exported (product extensive margin) and (iii) average export value per product exported (product intensive margin). We find strong evidence of a heterogeneous effect of trade facilitation across firm size. While better information availability, advance ruling and appeal procedures mainly benefit small firms, the simplification of documents and automation tend to favor large firms' trade. This is coherent with the idea that while some elements of the TFA simply reduce the fixed cost of exporting (favoring small firms in particular), other chapters in the TFA reduce the scope for corruption at borders, making large firms less reluctant to serve corrupt countries. Creation-Date: 2016-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2016/wp2016-08.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2016-08 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Exchange Rate Pass-through in Emerging Countries: Do the Inflation Environment, Monetary Policy Regime and Institutional Quality Matter? Author-Name: Antonia Lopez-Villavicencio Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Keywords: exchange rate pass-through;inflation;emerging countries;monetary policy Classification-JEL:E31;E52;F31 Abstract: In this paper, we estimate the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to consumer prices and assess its dynamics for a sample of 15 emerging countries over the 1994-2015 period. To this end, we augment the traditional bivariate relationship between the nominal effective exchange rate and inflation by accounting for the inflation environment, monetary policy regime, as well as domestic institutional factors. We show that both the level and volatility of inflation matter in the sense that declining ERPT is evidenced with more stable and anti-inflationary environment. Monetary policy also plays a key role since adopting an inflation target—especially de jure—leads to a significant reduction in ERPT for most countries. Adopting exchange rate targeting regime matters as well, contributing to a diminishing ERPT. Finally, we find evidence that transparency of monetary policy decisions clearly reduces ERPT, while this is not the case for central bank independence. Creation-Date: 2016-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2016/wp2016-07.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2016-07 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Food trade, Biodiversity Effects and Price Volatility Author-Name: Cecilia Bellora Author-Name: Jean-Marc Bourgeon Keywords: Agricultural Trade;Food Prices;Agrobiodiversity;Pesticides Classification-JEL:F18;Q17;Q18;Q56 Abstract: Biotic factors such as pests create biodiversity effects that increase food production risks and decrease productivity when agriculture specializes. Under free trade, they reduce the specialization in food production that otherwise prevails in a Ricardian two-country setup. Pesticides allow farmers to reduce biodiversity effects, but they are damaging for the environment and for human health. When regulating farming practices under free trade, governments face a tradeoff: they are tempted to restrict the use of pesticides compared to under autarky because domestic consumption partly relies on imports and thus depends less on them, but they also want to preserve the competitiveness of their agricultural sector on international markets. Contrary to the environmental race-to-the-bottom tenet, we show that at the symmetric equilibrium under free trade restrictions on pesticides are generally more stringent than under autarky. As a result, trade increases the price volatility of crops produced by both countries, and, depending on the intensity of the biodiversity effects, of some or all of the crops that are country-specific. Creation-Date: 2016-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2016/wp2016-06.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2016-06 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: How Multi-Destination Firms Shape the Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade: Micro Evidence and Aggregate Implications Author-Name: Jérôme Héricourt Author-Name: Clément Nedoncelle Keywords: Real Exchange Rate Volatility;Multi-destination Exporters;Reallocation;Aggregation Classification-JEL:F14;F31;G32;L25 Abstract: How can the lack of reaction of aggregate exports to Real Exchange Rate (RER) volatility be explained? Using a French firm-level database that combines balance-sheet and product-destination-specific export information over the period 1995-2009, we propose a micro-founded explanation to this macro puzzle, by investigating how firms reallocate exports across destinations following RER volatility shocks. We show that firm-level bilateral exports to a considered destination also react to external volatility, represented by several indicators we build. Firms tend to reallocate exports away from destinations with unfavorable dynamics in terms of RER volatility, and this effect grows with the scope of possible reallocations. Efficient diversification of destinations served appear therefore as another way to handle exchange rate risks, and provides an explanation to the small aggregate trade response to RER volatility: if big multi-destination firms, who account for the bulk of aggregate exports, can react to an adverse shock of RER volatility somewhere by transferring trade to other and less volatile destinations, this leaves exports mainly unchanged at the macro level. Creation-Date: 2016-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2016/wp2016-05.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2016-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Impact of European Food Safety Border Inspections on Agri-Food Exports: Evidence from Chinese Firms Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Anne-Célia Disdier Author-Name: Matthias Beestermöller Keywords: Food Safety;Border Inspections;Import Refusals;Uncertainty;Firm Heterogeneity Classification-JEL:F14;L25;Q17;Q18 Abstract: The cost of complying with a sanitary standard is certain. However, such regulatory measure introduces an element of uncertainty for exporting firms in relation to border rejections. Shipments may fail to pass inspections and may be refused entry into the importing country. This risk is shaped by variance in the quality of the exported product, and the stringency of the border controls. Large developing countries are over-represented in import refusals and may be targeted by inspectors. We examine how the risk of rejection at European borders on safety grounds is affecting Chinese agri-food exporters. We combine information from the European Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed with Chinese firm-level export data by product, destination and year for the period 2000-2011. We show that information externalities and reputation effects are important. Border rejections amplify the turnover among firms at the extensive margin of trade. This risk is curbing small Chinese exporters and resulting in a concentration of Chinese exports from big and more productive exporters. Creation-Date: 2016-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2016/wp2016-04.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2016-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The effect of local taxes on firm performance: evidence from geo referenced data Author-Name: Federico Belotti Author-Name: Edoardo di Porto Author-Name: Gianluca Santoni Keywords: local taxation;endogeneity;spatial differencing;two-way clustering Classification-JEL:H22;H71;R38 Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of business property taxation on firms' performance using a panel of italian manufacturing firms. To account for endogeneity in local taxation, we exploit a pairwise spatial differenced generalized method of moments estimator. As well as providing robust inference, we also improve on existing work by exploiting the exogenous variation in local taxes generated by the political alignment of each local government with the central one. We find that property taxation exerts a negative impact on firms' employment, capital and sales to such an extent as to significantly affect total factor productivity. Creation-Date: 2016-02 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2016/wp2016-03.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2016-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Inter-industry relatedness and industrial-policy efficiency: Evidence from China's Export Processing Zones Author-Name: Zhao Chen Author-Name: Sandra Poncet Author-Name: Ruixiang Xiong Keywords: Export Processing Zones;Industrial Policy;Export Promotion Effectiveness;China Classification-JEL:F13;F14;O25;R11 Abstract: In this paper, we evaluate whether the efficiency of industrial policies depends on the consistency of their focus with the local productive structure. We use sector-level data from Chinese manufacturing surveys over the 1998-2007 period to show that the efficiency of the export-promoting policies implemented in Export Processing Zones depends on whether they target activities for which the necessary capabilities and resources are available. We find export benefits from the EPZ policy which are greater for sectors with denser links with the local productive structure. Our results suggest that industrial-policy effectiveness is magnified by pre-existing productive knowledge. Creation-Date: 2016-02 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2016/wp2016-02.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2016-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: With a Little Help from My Friends: Multinational Retailers and China's consumer Market Penetration Author-Name: Charlotte Emlinger Author-Name: Sandra Poncet Keywords: Multinational retailers;China;Imports Classification-JEL:L81;F14;F23 Abstract: We study the growing presence of multinational retailers and its role for imports in China. To identify the causal effect of foreign retailers entry on the local import intensity, we use sector and origin country level import data for a panel of Chinese cities between 1997 and 2012 and differentiate between retailer and non retailer goods, and, in a second step, we exploit information on the multinational retailers' headquarters countries. We find that a relative rise in retail imports in cities where multinational retailers settle, which is sharper for imports from the country of origin of the retailer. Our results suggest that a 20% higher multinational retailer presence, amounting to one additional hypermarket in 2012, induces a relative rise in imports in retail goods of 2.8% compared to non retail goods. The import relative gains rise to 5.6% for the multinational retailers' headquarters countries. We find that the observed effect is mainly driven by the food products, which is consistent with the appeal of Western gastronomy and with the structuring role of retail branded products. Our results suggest that global retailers bridgehead for the penetration of the Chinese market by producers from their home base. Creation-Date: 2016-01 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2016/wp2016-01.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2016-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: From the Investment Plan to the Capital Markets Union: European Financial Structure and Cross Border Risk-sharing Author-Name: Jesper Berg Author-Name: Laurent Clerc Author-Name: Olivier Garnier Author-Name: Erik Nielsen Author-Name: Natacha Valla Keywords: ECB;Capital Markets Union;Policy Srategy;Securitization;Covered Bonds;Financial Structure;Quantitative Easing;Cross-border Capital Flows Classification-JEL:e42;e44;e52;e58;e63 Abstract: Following the financial crisis, Europe is suffering from a significant investment deficit. It has long been appreciated that growth will suffer in Europe over the medium term unless the shortfall in investment is addressed, but considerable disagreement on how to achieve this, and in particular on the role public investment should play. In addition, mobilising finance to increase investment in Europe requires both a good understanding of Europe’s financial structure, and a fine knowledge of the composition of cross-border financial imbalances. In this paper, we take stock of the state of play regarding investment, financial structures and cross-border imbalances. We contend that any initiative meant to provide a sound basis for long-term, stable investment flows has to acknowledge the fact that Europe is engaged in a debt-deflation deleveraging phase, with accompanying disintermediation, the full extent of which is as yet unknown. We then draw policy conclusions that would allow for a sustainable investment revival, insisting on the need to have an overall strategic vision for the main EU policy initiatives - the Investment Plan, the Capital Markets Union, and the €1,100bn new money issued by the ECB within its Large Asset Purchase Programme. Creation-Date: 2015-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2015/wp2015-34.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2015-34 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Which import restrictions matter for trade in services ? Author-Name: Julien Gooris Author-Name: Cristina Mitaritonna Keywords: services trade;regulatory protection;gravity model;ad-valorem tariff equivalents Classification-JEL:F13;L80 Abstract: This study exploits rich databases of services trade and import restrictions to estimate the effects of discrete restrictiveness levels on bilateral services flows using a gravity model, and to derive tariff equivalents in three service sectors (Other Business Services, Banking and Insurance). We preserve the discrete nature of the restrictions to import, which are provided by the World Bank - WB (see Borchert et al., 2014). For each sector-country combination, we evaluate restrictiveness using four discrete levels of restrictiveness, from totally open to closed. This approach allows us track the effect of the specific import restrictions in place. We highlight their non-linear impact on services flows showing threshold effects and the trade stimulating effect of minor import restrictions on a restriction-free environment. Finally we derive tariff equivalents directly from the impact of applied restrictions. Creation-Date: 2015-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2015/wp2015-33.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2015-33 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Liquidity, Government Bonds and Sovereign Debt Crises Author-Name: Francesco Molteni Keywords: repo;haircuts;government bonds;liquidity shock;quantitative easing Classification-JEL:E44;E58;G12 Abstract: This paper analyses the European financial crisis through the lens of sovereign bond liquidity. Using novel data we show that government securities are the prime collateral in the European repo market, which is becoming an essential source of funding for the banking system in the Euro area. We document that repo haircuts on peripheral government bonds sharply increased during the crisis, reducing their liquidity and amplifying the raise in the yields of these securities. We study the systemic impact of a liquidity shock on the business cycle and asset prices through a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with liquidity frictions. The model predicts a drop in economic activity, inflation and value of illiquid government bonds. We show that an unconventional policy which consists of purchasing illiquid bonds by issuing liquid bonds can alleviate the contractionary effect of liquidity shock. A Bayesian structural vector autoregressive model for the Irish economy confirms empirically the negative impact of a rise in haircuts on the value of government bonds. Creation-Date: 2015-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2015/wp2015-32.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2015-32 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Excess Finance and Growth: Don't Lose Sight of Expansions ! Author-Name: Thomas Grjebine Author-Name: Fabien Tripier Keywords: Growth;Business Cycles;Finance;Financial Cycles;Bubbles Classification-JEL:E32;E44 Abstract: Accompanying the great recession, a recent empirical literature casts doubt on the existence of a positive relationship between economic and financial growth pointing out the economic costs of excessive financial growth. We show however that if one considers the complete growth cycle, that is by including expansions into a growth cycle accounting procedure, the elasticity between financial and economic growth rates is positive for most financial series, even if high financial growth makes recessions more severe. This elasticity should be however adjusted downward, and may even turn negative, if one considers the persistent effects of financial growth on the expansion of the subsequent cycle. This effect can explain the pattern of economic growth observed during and after financial bubbles. Creation-Date: 2015-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2015/wp2015-31.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2015-31 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Non-Tariff Measures, Specific Trade Concerns and Tariff Reduction Author-Name: Gianluca Orefice Keywords: International Trade;Tariffs;Non-tariff Measures;Specific Trade Concerns Classification-JEL:F13;F14;F53 Abstract: This paper studies the determinants of the recent proliferation of Specific Trade Concerns raised at the WTO on Non-tariff Trade Measures (NTMs), with a focus on Sanitary and Phyto Sanitary (SPS) and Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT). Even thought NTMs are de jure imposed to protect consumers from unhealthy products, they de facto increase trade costs. So, when tariff protection lowers, NTMs become effective barriers to trade and the exporting countries can complain at the dedicated committee at the WTO (STCs). Therefore we study whether STCs are raised by exporting countries as a consequence of tariff reductions in importing countries, i.e. when non-tariff measures become barriers to trade. Using a recent database on STCs over the period 1996-2010, we find empirical evidence that SPS and TBT concerns are raised by exporting country as a consequence of importer’s tariff cut. Creation-Date: 2015-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2015/wp2015-30.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2015-30 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Trade and The Spatial Distribution of Transport Infrastructure Author-Name: Gabriel J. Felbermayr Author-Name: Alexander Tarasov Keywords: Economic Geography;International Trade;Infrastructure Investment;Border Effect Puzzle Classification-JEL:F11;R42;R13 Abstract: The distribution of transport infrastructure across space is the outcome of deliberate government planning that reflects a desire to unlock the welfare gains from regional economic integration. Yet, despite being one of the oldest government activities, the economic forces shaping the endogenous emergence of infrastructure have not been rigorously studied. This paper provides a stylized analytical framework of open economies in which planners decide non-cooperatively on transport infrastructure investments across continuous space. Allowing for intra- and international trade, the resulting equilibrium investment schedule features underinvestment that turns out particularly severe in border regions and that is amplified by the presence of discrete border costs. In European data, the mechanism explains about a fifth of the border effect identified in a conventionally specified gravity regression. The framework sheds light on the welfare costs of second best investment schedules, on the effects of intercontinental trade or of privatized infrastructure provision. Creation-Date: 2015-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2015/wp2015-29.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2015-29 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Wage and Employment Gains from Exports: Evidence from Developing Countries Author-Name: Irene Brambilla Author-Name: Nicolas Depetris Chauvin Author-Name: Guido Porto Keywords: export wage premium;exports to high-income destination;skill utilization Classification-JEL:F13;F14;J23 Abstract: We study the relationship between exports, employment, and wages in developing countries using both firm and industry level data. The firm level data shows that on average exporters pay 31 percent higher wages than non-exporters. The data also reveals that exporting firms are on average much larger. We build a model that allows us to study the main mechanisms that explain the export premium. These are skilled labor utilization, technology sophistication, imported input use, and productivity. We find that, conditional on all the mechanisms, the wage export premium disappears completely. To establish causality we use firm-level panel data from Chile and instrument variables capturing exogenous export opportunities for firms. The estimations show that conditional on size, firms that export a higher share of their total sales utilize more skilled (and also highly-skilled) workers, and less unskilled workers. This implies that exporters need to perform skill intensive activities and tasks. We finally assess the argument that exporting per se may not necessarily lead to higher skill utilization and what matters is the destination of a firms' exports. We use a panel of industries and countries to establish whether the destination of a country's exports is relevant for skill utilization and to take this as evidence of a demand for high quality products in export markets. We find robust evidence that, worldwide, industries that ship products to high-income destinations do pay higher average wages. We also find that industries that ship products to high-income destination export higher quality goods and that the provision of quality is costly and require more intensive use of higher-wage skilled labor. Creation-Date: 2015-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2015/wp2015-28.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2015-28 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Multinational Wage Premium and Wage Dynamics Author-Name: Gianluca Orefice Author-Name: Nicholas Sly Author-Name: Farid Toubal Keywords: multinational enterprises;wage premium;in-kind payments;fair wages Classification-JEL:F66;F14;F23 Abstract: Using detailed administrative data linking French firms and workers over the years 2002-2007, we document a distinct U-shaped pattern in worker-level wages surrounding the time their employer is acquired by a foreign firm, with a dip in earnings observed in years just before domestic firms switch to MNE status. The dip in earnings is evident in both wages and in-kind payments given to workers. To guide our empirical approach, we present a simple model with fair wage considerations among workers and endogenous cross-border acquisition activity that predicts this U-shaped pattern, and characterizes the selection of domestic targets for acquisition by an MNE. Creation-Date: 2015-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2015/wp2015-27.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2015-27 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Brands in Motion: How frictions shape multinational production Author-Name: Keith Head Author-Name: Thierry Mayer Keywords: Multinational Production;Gravity;Structural Estimation Classification-JEL:F1 Abstract: We use disaggregated data on car assembly and trade to estimate a model of multinational production. Our framework delineates four theory-based specifications under which all frictions relevant to multinational production can be structurally estimated. In addition to the trade costs and multinational production frictions emphasized in past work, we incorporate a third friction: regardless of production origin, it is more difficult to make sales in markets that are geographically separated from the brand's headquarters. The estimation transparently recovers internally consistent estimates of each type of friction cost. With structural parameters in hand, we investigate the consequences of three trade integration experiments: TPP, TTIP, and Brexit. We show that each type of friction makes a qualitative and quantitative difference in the reallocation of production caused by economic integration. Creation-Date: 2015-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2015/wp2015-26.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2015-26 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Reassessing the empirical relationship between the oil price and the dollar Author-Name: Virginie Coudert Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Keywords: Oil price;Dollar real effective exchange rate;Causality;Nonlinearity Classification-JEL:c22;f31;q43 Abstract: This paper aims at reassessing the empirical relationship between the real price of oil and the U.S. dollar real effective exchange rate over the 1974-2015 period. We find that changes in both variables are now linked by a negative relationship, going from the dollar exchange rate to the real oil price. However, the same relationship is found positive when ending the sample in the mid-2000s, in line with the previous literature. To understand and investigate this evolution, we rely on a nonlinear, smooth transition regression model in which the oil price-dollar nexus depends on the dynamics followed by the U.S. currency. Our results show that the relationship is negative most of the times but turns positive when the dollar hits very high values, as in the early eighties. Creation-Date: 2015-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2015/wp2015-25.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2015-25 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Can the magic of Abenomics succeed? Author-Name: Evelyne Dourille-Feer Keywords: Growth;Macroeconomic policy;Deflation;innovation Classification-JEL:o40;e61;e31;o38 Abstract: Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s pro-growth economic policy, dubbed Abenomics, combines monetary policy and fiscal policy as well as growth reforms. It has attracted much attention worldwide because it combines short and mid to long term policies, and supply and demand programmes. The quest for growth is explained by its ballooning public debt and the increasing social cost of its fast population aging. Exiting deflation has been prioritized by Shinzo Abe to energize growth. Abenomics raises the central question of why the quest for growth in a context of shrinking population and a quite high standard of living? However, this eagerness for growth, which translates into higher fiscal revenues, is explained by its ballooning public debt, and the increasing social cost of its fast population aging. The Abe government has set the ambitious goal of an annual 2% real GDP growth rate. The first two arrows (expansionary monetary and fiscal policies) were successful in 2013. But, in the 2014 fiscal year, the coincidence of a VAT increase, a steep fall in energy prices and a smaller supplementary budget generally drove down the CPI index (excluding consumption tax) and led to zero growth of real GDP and, in the 2015 fiscal year, the developments of CPI and growth were disappointing. In order not to fall back into deflation, demand must be boosted. Shinzo Abe is betting on institutional and technological innovations to foster economic growth in the long run. Abenomics will work its magic if Shinzo Abe has sufficient time and sufficient political strength to fully implement his third policy arrow. Creation-Date: 2015-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2015/wp2015-24.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2015-24 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Langues, commerce, bien-être et francophonie Author-Name: Jacques Melitz Keywords: Langues;commerce;francophonie;politique linguistique;apprentissage des langues Classification-JEL:z10;f10;z18 Abstract: Cet article, consacré à l’ensemble des effets linguistiques sur le commerce et le bien-être, essaye de tirer les leçons pour la francophonie en particulier. L’argument principal est que la francophonie bénéficie à certaines industries françaises comme le tourisme, l’édition, le cinéma et la chanson, mais que cela conduit à une réallocation de ressources entre les différentes industries plutôt qu’à une augmentation du PNB français. Ainsi, la promotion de la francophonie prend tout son sens dans un effort d’élargir l’influence de la langue et la culture françaises mais pas dans un but macroéconomique. Sur le plan macroéconomique, ce serait plutôt le multilinguisme en France qu’il faudrait promouvoir. Ces conclusions s’appuient sur une analyse économétrique des liens réciproques entre langues et commerce international. Creation-Date: 2015-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2015/wp2015-23.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2015-23 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Regime-switching volatility of Euro Area Business Cycles Author-Name: Stéphane Lhuissier Keywords: Business Cycles;DSGE;Euro Area;Heteroskedasticity;Markov-switching Classification-JEL:c11;c51;e32;e42;e52 Abstract: We document the strong evidence of time variation in the volatility of euro area business cycles since 1970. Then, we provide the quantitative sources of these changes by using a medium-scale DSGE model allowing time variation in structural disturbance variances. We show that: 1) The size of different types of shock oscillates, in a synchronized manner, between two regimes over time, with the high-volatility regime prevailing predominantly in the 1970s, sporadically in the 1980s and 1990s, and during the Great Recession. 2) Their relative importance remains, however, unchanged across regimes, where neutral technology shocks and marginal efficiency of investment shocks are the dominant sources of business cycle fluctuations; and 3) These investment shocks, which affect the transformation of savings into productive capital, can be interpreted as an indicator of credit condtions. Creation-Date: 2015-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2015/wp2015-22.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2015-22 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Do exporting firms benefit from retail internationalization? Evidence from France Author-Name: Angela Cheptea Author-Name: Charlotte Emlinger Author-Name: Karine Latouche Keywords: Multinational retailers;Firm-level exports;Private standards Classification-JEL:f12;f14;f23 Abstract: This paper questions the impact of the globalization of the retail sector on the export activity of origin country agrifood firms. In a previous paper (Cheptea et al. 2015), we showed that the overseas expansion of a country's retailers fostered its exports to foreign markets. This effect can be explained by a reduction in trade costs for retailers' supplying firms in the origin country, or to a change in consumer preferences in the host country that benefits all origin country firms. In this paper, we evaluate which of the two mechanisms dominates. For that, we use an original firm-level database of French agri-food exports, identifying the domestic suppliers of French retailers through certification with the private IFS standard. We find that IFS certified French firms are more likely to export and export larger volumes than non-certified firms to markets where French retailers established outlets. We also show that when French retailers close down their activities in a market, IFS firms face a drop in exports to this market in the subsequent years. The results are robust to the use of different sets of firm- and country-specific fixed effects, are unaffected by possible selection and endogeneity biases, and by the presence in export markets of other retailers. The difference in behavior for certified and non-certified exporting firms on markets where French retailers operate confirms the trade cost advantage of retailers' suppliers, which is lost when French retailers exit from the destination country. Creation-Date: 2015-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2015/wp2015-21.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2015-21 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Quality Screening and Trade Intermediaries: Evidence from China Author-Name: Sandra Poncet Author-Name: Meina Xu Keywords: Intermediaries;International Trade;Quality screening;Product differentiation;China Classification-JEL:F13;F14;O25;R11 Abstract: We examine the quality-screening role played by intermediaries in international trade, exploiting export data at the product level for Chinese exporters. We uncover substantial heterogeneity among intermediaries, and distinguish two kinds: generalized and specialized intermediaries. We find strong evidence of a quality-verification role for specialized intermediaries: they are more prevalent in products with greater quality dispersion among local exporters and export goods of higher quality than do generalized intermediaries. Our results suggest that specialized intermediaries have the capacity to reduce the incidence of quality problems. Creation-Date: 2015-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2015/wp2015-20.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2015-20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Should everybody be in services? The effect of servitization on manufacturing firm performance Author-Name: Matthieu Crozet Author-Name: Emmanuel Milet Keywords: Servitization;Deindustrialisation;Firm performance Classification-JEL:L23;L25;L6 Abstract: The servitization of the manufacturing sector refers to the evolution of manufacturers' capabilities to offer services as a complement to or a substitute for the goods that they produce. A vast literature has described these strategies and has shown that this phenomenon is widespread and growing in most developed economies. However, very little systematic evidence of the extent or consequences of servitization based on a comprehensive dataset of firms exists. In this paper, we provide such evidence using exhaustive data for French manufacturing firms between 1997 and 2007. We find that the vast majority of French manufacturers sell services in addition to producing goods. The shift toward services is growing steadily but at a slow pace. We also provide evidence of a causal impact of servitization on firm performance. Controlling for various sources of endogeneity bias, we find that firms that start selling services experience an increase in their profitability between 3.7% and 5.3%, increase their employment by 30%, increase their total sales by 3.7%, and increase their sales of goods by 3.6%. The results hold for most industries, although some heterogeneity exists. Creation-Date: 2015-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2015/wp2015-19.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2015-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Oil currencies in the face of oil shocks: What can be learned from time-varying specifications? Author-Name: Jean-Pierre Allegret Author-Name: Cécile Couharde Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Author-Name: Tovonony Razafindrabe Keywords: oil currencies;oil shocks;Time-Varying Parameter VAR model Classification-JEL:C32;F31;Q43 Abstract: While the oil currency property is clearly established from a theoretical viewpoint, its existence is less clear-cut in the empirical literature. We investigate the reasons for this apparent puzzle by studying the time-varying nature of the relationship between real effective exchange rates of five oil exporters and the real oil price in the aftermath of the oil price shocks of the last two decades. Accordingly, we rely on a time-varying parameter VAR specification which allows the responses of real exchange rates to different oil price shocks to evolve over time. We find that the reason of the mixed results obtained in the empirical literature is that oil currencies follow different hybrid models in the sense that oil countries’ real exchange rates may be driven by one or several sources of oil price shocks that furthermore can vary over time. In addition to structural changes affecting oil countries, structural changes arising from the oil market itself through the various, time-varying sources of oil price shocks are found to be crucial. Creation-Date: 2015-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2015/wp2015-18.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2015-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Immigration and the Gender Wage Gap Author-Name: Anthony Edo Author-Name: Farid Toubal Keywords: Migration;labor supply;gender wage gap Classification-JEL:f22;j16;j21;j31;j61 Abstract: This paper analyzes the effects of immigration on the gender wage gap. Using a detailed individual French dataset, we shed lights on the strong feminization of the immigration workforce from 1990 to 2010. Our theoretical model predicts that a shift in the supply of female workers increases gender wage inequality when men and women are imperfect substitute in production. Our structural estimate shows an imperfect substituability between men and women workers of similar education and experience. Our econometric analysis shows that a 10% increase in immigrant female labor supply relative to immigrant male labor supply in a given education-experience group lowers the relative earnings of female native workers of that group by 4%. We finally use a structural model to account for the cross-group effects induced by immigration and show that the rise in the relative number of female immigrants has decreased the relative wage of female native workers, thereby contributing to a widening native gender wage gap. Creation-Date: 2015-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2015/wp2015-17.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2015-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Disaster Risk and Preference Shifts in a New Keynesian Model Author-Name: Marlène Isoré Author-Name: Urszula Szczerbowicz Keywords: disaster risk;rare events;uncertainty;asset pricing;DSGE models;new Keynesian models;business cycles Classification-JEL:D81;D90;E20;E31;E32;E44;G12;Q54 Abstract: This paper analyzes the effects of a change in a small but time-varying “disaster risk” à la Gourio (2012) in a New Keynesian model. Real business cycle models featuring disaster risk have been successful in replicating observed moments of equity premia, yet their macroeconomic responses are highly sensitive to the chosen value of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS). In particular, we show here that an increase in the probability of disaster causes a recession only when imposing an EIS larger than unity, which may be arbitrarily large. Nevertheless, we also find that incorporating sticky prices allows to conciliate recessionary effects of the disaster risk with a plausible value of the EIS. The disaster risk shock causes endogenous shifts in preferences which provide a rationale for discount factor first- (Christiano et al., 2011) and second- (Basu and Bundick, 2014) moment shocks. Creation-Date: 2015-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2015/wp2015-16.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2015-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Changes in Migration Patterns and Remittances: Do Females and Skilled Migrants Remit More? Author-Name: Maëlan Le Goff Author-Name: Sara Salomone Keywords: International migration;Remittances;Brain Drain Classification-JEL:J16;f22 Abstract: Migrants’ remittances to developing countries have significantly increased and turn out to be the second largest source of finance for developing countries after foreign direct investment. Besides, the composition of international migration flows has also changed being characterized by a growing feminization and brain drain. In reviewing the literature on remittances, this survey shows that to fully estimate the role of remittances as a lifeline for developing countries the two above recent phenomena cannot be ignored. Indeed, using an original dataset on bilateral remittances and estimating a gravity model in which the gender and the skill dimensions of the migrants are taken into account, we find that both are positively associated with annual remittances received by origin countries. In particular, the main effect seems to be driven by skilled female migrants which presumably represent an important loss in terms of human capital in the perspective of a developing country. Creation-Date: 2015-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2015/wp2015-15.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2015-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Market Size, Trade and Quality: Evidence from French Exporters Author-Name: Silja Baller Keywords: Heterogenous firms;Flexible mark-ups;Market size;Quality;Complementarities Classification-JEL:F12;F14;F15;F61;L11 Abstract: This paper presents the most direct test to date of the key welfare mechanism put forward by Melitz and Ottaviano (2008): the best firms increase sales disproportionately when competing in larger markets. I test this prediction in a quality context where the best firms produce the highest quality. The empirical analysis is guided by a quality-augmentation of Melitz and Ottaviano (2008). I capture product quality empirically using a unique dataset containing firm-level quality ratings. The results are in line with the key prediction of the model. I also find a strong positive relationship between a proxy for consumer quality preference and demand for quality which is consistent with the theory. Creation-Date: 2015-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2015/wp2015-14.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2015-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Foreign Language Learning: An Econometric Analysis Author-Name: Victor Ginsburgh Author-Name: Jacques Melitz Author-Name: Farid Toubal Keywords: language learning;language and trade;English as a global language;linguistic distance Classification-JEL:F10;F20;Z00;J00 Abstract: The paper is devoted to an econometric analysis of learning foreign languages in all parts of the world. Our sample covers 193 countries and 13 important languages. Five factors significantly explain learning: the world population of native speakers of the home language, literacy, the world population of speakers of the target language, trade with foreign speakers of the target language, and the linguistic distance between the home language and the target language. All five factors affect the broad decision to learn but the last three also point to the choice of the particular language to learn. The world population of speakers of the native language discourages learning in general while literacy promotes it in general. Instead, the world population of speakers of a specific target language and trade with speakers of the specific language prompts learning of that language while the linguistic distance between the home and the foreign language discourages learning of that language. Trade may well deserve special emphasis, not only for its quantitative effect, but also because its direction can change faster and by a larger order of magnitude than the other factors. Controlling for individual acquired languages, including English, is of no particular importance. Creation-Date: 2015-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2015/wp2015-13.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2015-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Firm Level Allocative Inefficiency: Evidence from France Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Gianluca Santoni Keywords: Misallocation;Productivity;Firm Level Data Classification-JEL:D24;L25;O47 Abstract: A large portion of productivity differentials among locations is related to density. Firms located in denser areas are more productive due to agglomeration economies (Combes et al., 2012). We provide in this paper an explanation of such economies: lower input misallocation. The distribution of resources among heterogeneous firms has relevant consequences on allocative efficiency and denser areas provide a more favorable environment for dynamic matching between employers and employees. Using a methodology proposed by Petrin and Sivadasan (2013) we are able to assess the degree of resource misallocation among firms within sectors for each of the 96 French "Départements". Based on firm-level productivity estimates, we identify in the gap between the value of the marginal product and marginal input price the output loss due to inefficiencies in inputs allocation. Over the period 1993- 2007 the average gap at firm level is around 10 thousands euro, showing a relevant increase starting from the early 2000s. Importantly, firms misallocations are lower in denser areas, suggesting that the matching mechanism is playing a role in explaining the productivity premium of agglomerated locations. Creation-Date: 2015-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2015/wp2015-12.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2015-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Has trade openness reduced pollution in China? Author-Name: José de Sousa Author-Name: Laura Hering Author-Name: Sandra Poncet Keywords: Trade openness;Pollution;SO2 emissions;China Classification-JEL:f10;f14;o14 Abstract: We use recent detailed Chinese data on trade and pollution emissions to assess the environmental consequences of China’s integration into the world economy. We rely on a panel dataset covering 235 Chinese cities over the 2003-2012 period and examine whether environmental repercussions from trade openness depends on whether it emanates from processing or ordinary activities. In line with our theoretical predictions, we find a negative and significant effect of trade on emissions that is magnified for processing trade and activities undertaken by foreign firms: much lower environmental gains result from either ordinary trade activities or domestic firms, even though these are today the main drivers of China’s export and import growth. This result invites caution about the prospects for pollution in a context of decline role of processing trade. Creation-Date: 2015-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2015/wp2015-11.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2015-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Atlantic versus Pacific Agreement in Agri-food Sectors: Does the Winner Take it All? Author-Name: Anne Célia Disdier Author-Name: Charlotte Emlinger Author-Name: Jean Fouré Keywords: Mega-trade deals;Agri-food;CGE model;Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership;Trans-Pacific Partnership Classification-JEL:f13;f15;q17 Abstract: Trade liberalization of the agri-food sector is a sensitive topic in both TTIP (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership) and TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) discussions. This paper first provides an overview of the current flows and trade barriers. Using a general equilibrium model of international trade (the MIRAGE model), it then assesses the potential impact of these two agreements on agri-food trade and value added. Results suggest that the US would gain from both agreements for their agri-food sectors, while almost all their partners and third countries would benefit less and even register losses in some sectors. The two agreements however do not compete much one with the other, since all defensive and offensive interests of contracting parties are complementary. Finally, the Atlantic trade may be impacted by the inclusion of standards harmonization within the Pacific Agreement but not by its extension to additional members (e.g. China or India). Creation-Date: 2015-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2015/wp2015-10.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2015-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Do Regional Trade Agreements Really Boost Trade? Estimates for Agricultural Products Author-Name: Sébastien Jean Author-Name: Jean-Christophe Bureau Keywords: regional trade agreement;international trade;agricultural products;tariff protection Classification-JEL:F13;Q17 Abstract: The trade effects of tariff preferences are assessed using difference-in-differences panel estimations, whereby exports to third destinations and imports from third origins are used as benchmarks. The method is applied at a detailed product level for 74 agreements, over the period 1998-2009, for the agricultural and food sector. We estimate the mean elasticity of substitution across imports at the product level to be slightly below 4, with significant but limited differences across types of agreements and level of preferential margin. Counterfactual simulations suggest that RTAs have increased bilateral agricultural and food exports between partners by 30% to 40% on average, with a marked heterogeneity across agreements. RTAs are also found to increase the probability to export a given a product to a partner country, but this impact is estimated to be lesser than one percentage point on average. Creation-Date: 2015-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2015/wp2015-09.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2015-09 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Variable Trade Costs, Composition Effects, and the Intensive Margin of Trade Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Antoine Berthou Keywords: international trade;firm heterogeneity;multi-product exporters;trade elasticity Classification-JEL:F12;F15 Abstract: We estimate the elasticity of extra-EU French firm-level exports with respect to applied tariffs -- a variable trade cost. We propose a methodology controlling for unobserved firm characteristics driving selection in exports market and for the resistance terms. Results confirm a significant negative impact of tariffs on firm-level exports, with one fifth of this impact falling on the induced adjustment in the exporters' product mix. When controlling for this adjustment and focusing on the core exported products, the elasticity of the product-destination firm-level exports with respect to applied tariffs is estimated at about -2.5. Creation-Date: 2015-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2015/wp2015-08.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2015-08 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: From Micro to Macro: Demand, Supply, and Heterogeneity in the Trade Elasticity Author-Name: Maria Bas Author-Name: Thierry Mayer Author-Name: Mathias Thoenig Keywords: trade elasticity;firm-level data;heterogeneity;gravity;Pareto;log-normal Classification-JEL:F21 Abstract: Models of heterogeneous firms with selection into export market participation generically exhibit aggregate trade elasticities that vary across country-pairs. Only when heterogeneity is assumed Pareto-distributed do all elasticities collapse into an unique elasticity, estimable with a gravity equation. This paper provides a theory-based method for quantifying country-pair specific elasticities when moving away from Pareto, i.e. when gravity does not hold. Combining two firm-level customs datasets for which we observe French and Chinese individual sales on the same destination market over the 2000-2006 period, we are able to estimate all the components of the dyadic elasticity: i) the demand-side parameter that governs the intensive margin and ii) the supply side parameters that drive the extensive margin. These components are then assembled under theoretical guidance to calculate bilateral aggregate elasticities over the whole set of destinations, and their decomposition into different margins. Our predictions fit well with econometric estimates, supporting our view that micro-data is a key element in the quantification of non-constant macro trade elasticities. Creation-Date: 2015-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2015/wp2015-07.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2015-07 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Does Exporting Improve Matching? Evidence from French Employer-Employee Data Author-Name: Matilde Bombardini Author-Name: Gianluca Orefice Author-Name: Maria D. Tito Keywords: Matching;Sorting;Exporting firms Classification-JEL:F14;F16;F60 Abstract: Does opening a market to international trade affect the pattern of matching between firms and workers? And does the modified sorting pattern affect welfare? This paper answers these questions both theoretically and empirically in three parts. We set up a model of matching between heterogeneous workers and firms where variation in the worker type at the firm level exists in equilibrium only because of the presence of search costs. When firms gain access to the foreign market their revenue potential increases. When stakes are high, matching with the right worker becomes particularly important because deviations from the ideal match quickly reduce the value of the relationship. Hence exporting firms select sets of workers that are less dispersed relative to the average. We then document a novel fact about the hiring decisions of exporting firms versus non-exporting firms in a French matched employer-employee dataset. We construct the type of each worker using both a traditional wage regression and a model-based approach and construct measures of the average Creation-Date: 2015-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2015/wp2015-06.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2015-06 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Trade policy and industrial policy in China: What motivates public authorities to apply restrictions on exports? Author-Name: Stéphanie Monjon Author-Name: Julien Gourdon Author-Name: Sandra Poncet Keywords: Trade policy;industrial policy;China;VAT system;export tax Classification-JEL:F10;F14;Q56 Abstract: This work investigates the motivations behind the Chinese fiscal policy on exports. It relies on very detailed product level (HS 6 digit) data over the period 2002-12 covering both export tax and export VAT rebate. It aims to uncover the respective importance of the various policy motivations and how they evolved over time. Our empirical analysis relates the tax rates to proxies of official objectives pursued by the Chinese public authorities such as those related to the promotion of technology or protection of the environment but also other unstated motives pertaining to subsidization of downstream sectors and terms of trade. Our results suggest that the Chinese fiscal policy targeting exports follows a variety of objectives whose relative importance changed over the period 2002-2012. Creation-Date: 2015-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2015/wp2015-05.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2015-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: L’usine du monde au ralenti ou le changement de régime du commerce extérieur chinois Author-Name: Françoise Lemoine Author-Name: Sandra Poncet Author-Name: Deniz Ünal Author-Name: Clément Cassé Keywords: China;Growth model;FDI;Foreign trade;Domestic market Classification-JEL:F2;F1;F15;F23;053 Abstract: Since the global crisis, China's foreign trade is no longer driven by its involvement in the global supply chains (i.e. by processing trade) but its dynamics stems from China’s own domestic demand and supply. For foreign funded enterprises, China is less and less a production base for export and more and more a domestic market to be captured, as shown by their growing involvement in ordinary trade. The demand for high-end consumer goods has benefited European exporters, especially to Germany. Creation-Date: 2015-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2015/wp2015-04.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2015-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Relative Real Exchange-Rate Volatility, Multi-Destination Firms and Trade: Micro Evidence and Aggregate Implications Author-Name: Jérôme Héricourt Author-Name: Clément Nedoncelle Keywords: Exchange rate volatility;multi-destination exporters;hedging;reallocation Classification-JEL:F14;F31;L25 Abstract: In this paper, we study how firm-level export performance is affected by Real Exchange Rate (RER) volatility and investigate the way this effect is shaped by firm size and more specifically, the number of destinations. Our empirical analysis relies on a French firm-level database that combines balance-sheet and product-destination-specific export information over the period 1995-2009. More specifically, we show that export performance is affected by both bilateral and multilateral real exchange rate volatility (that is, the weighted volatility of all other destinations served by firms), the latter embodying the existence of third-market effects. Besides, we find that firm size and the number of destinations seem to exacerbate the impacts of both bilateral and multilateral RER volatilities on export performance: firms tend to reallocate exports away from destinations characterized by higher, relative RER volatility, and are even more prone to do so when the scope of possible reallocations is extended. Our results suggest that more destination-diversified firms are better able to handle exchange rate risks, with significant implications for exports at the macro level: a very simple empirical exercise shows that aggregate exports would have been 6.6% larger if all firms had been able to reallocate exports across sufficiently numerous destinations. Creation-Date: 2015-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2015/wp2015-03.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2015-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Does the volatility of commodity prices reflect macroeconomic uncertainty? Author-Name: Marc Joëts Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Author-Name: Tovonony Razafindrabe Keywords: Macroeconomic Uncertainty;Commodity Prices;Threshold Vector Autoregressive Model Classification-JEL:Q02;E32;C32 Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on a large sample of 19 commodity markets. We rely on a robust measure of macroeconomic uncertainty based on a wide range of monthly macroeconomic and financial indicators, and we estimate a structural threshold VAR (TVAR) model to assess whether the effect of macroeconomic uncertainty on commodity price returns depends on the degree of uncertainty. Our findings show that whereas the safe-haven role of precious metals is confirmed, agricultural and industrial markets are highly sensitive to the variability and the level of macroeconomic uncertainty, respectively. In addition, we show that the recent 2007-09 recession has generated an unprecedented episode of high uncertainty in numerous commodity markets that is not necessarily accompanied by a subsequent volatility in the corresponding prices, highlighting the relevance of our uncertainty measure in linking uncertainty to predictability rather than to volatility. Creation-Date: 2015-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2015/wp2015-02.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2015-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: NTMs, Preferential Trade Agreements, and Prices: New evidence Author-Name: Olivier Cadot Author-Name: Julien Gourdon Keywords: NTMs;price gaps;RTAs;deep integration;harmonization;unit values Classification-JEL:F13;F15 Abstract: Combining for the first time a new dataset of non-tariff measures (NTMs) in 65 countries with the CEPII’s unit values database, we estimate average ad-valorem equivalents (AVEs) for SPS, TBT and other measures by section of the Harmonized System of product classification. While most existing AVEs are obtained from indirect quantity-based estimation, ours are obtained from direct price-gap estimation. They lie in a single-digit range, i.e. substantially lower than previous estimates based on older data. Our results may reflect the progressive phasing out of commandand- control instruments such as quantitative restrictions in many countries; they also suggest that sanitary and technical regulations have not substituted for them as trade-restrictive interventions. Most interestingly, we show that deep-integration clauses in regional trade agreements, in particular the mutual recognition of conformity-assessment procedures, substantially reduce the price-raising effect of NTMs, possibly reflecting lower compliance costs. Creation-Date: 2015-02 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2015/wp2015-01.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2015-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Mega-deals: What Consequences for sub-Saharan Africa? Author-Name: Houssein Guimbard Author-Name: Maëlan Le Goff Keywords: International Trade;Mega Deals;Africa Classification-JEL:F13;F15;O55 Abstract: The sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries are excluded from the mega-deals (EU-USA, EU-Japan, China-Japan-Korea…) under negotiations: they might however undergo important economic impacts, as their exports remain dependant from those large markets. Using a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGEM), this paper find that mega-deals would have a negative impact on the welfare of SSA countries. Regional integration (the “Tripartite” FTA, a potential trade agreement gathering 26 African countries) in Africa might limit these losses but cannot overcome them. A continental RTA involving all SSA countries would slightly counterbalance the negative impact of the Mega deals. We also show that openness of African countries towards Asia could be a potential solution to avoid trade diversion. Creation-Date: 2014-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2014/wp2014-28.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2014-28 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: European High-End Varieties in International Competition Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Sophie Hatte Keywords: Product Differentiation;Market Shares;Unit Values Classification-JEL:F12;F15 Abstract: We study international competition in high-end varieties for 416 detailed HS6 product categories marketed by the leading French luxury brands. We construct a world database of trade flows for these products, computing unit values of related bilateral trade flows and analyzing competition among the main exporters. We use the observed distribution of unit values to define a high-end market segment. Exports of high-end varieties are shown to be less sensitive to distance, and found more sensitive to destination country wealth than other varieties, but only in relation to countries already producing a large range of luxury brands, pointing to a first-mover advantage. Creation-Date: 2014-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2014/wp2014-27.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2014-27 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: World Trade Flows Characterization: Unit Values, Trade Types and Price Ranges Author-Name: Charlotte Emlinger Author-Name: Sophie Piton Keywords: Unit Values;Trade Prices;Trade Types;Price Ranges Classification-JEL:F1;F6 Abstract: We provide a systematic decomposition of world trade using a new database built on an harmonized version of Trade Unit Values, CEPII's database providing a world trade matrix of unit values for more than 230 countries and 5 100 products over the period 2000-2012. The decomposition allows to associate each flow with a trade type (one-way trade, intra-industry trade in similar products or in differentiated products) and a price range (low, middle or high range). We show that world trade is still mainly inter-industry and concerns more and more middle-market products. Creation-Date: 2014-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2014/wp2014-26.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2014-26 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Assessing House Price Effects on Unemployment Dynamics Author-Name: François Geerolf Author-Name: Thomas Grjebine Keywords: Unemployment;House Prices Classification-JEL:J60;E29;R32 Abstract: We investigate the causal effect of house price movements on unemployment dynamics. Using a dataset of 34 countries over the last 40 years, we show the large and significant impact of house prices on unemployment fluctuations using property taxes as an instrument for house prices. A 10% (instrumented) appreciation in house prices yields to a 3.4% decrease in the unemployment rate. These results are very robust to the inclusion of the variables commonly used to explain unemployment rate developments. If house prices directly impact employment in construction, job volatility in this sector resulting in large employment fluctuations, they impact also total employment through their effects on non-residential investment and consumption, two determinants of labour demand. Housing booms have a specific effect on employment in the tradable sector as they lead to real exchange rate appreciations that affect manufacturing activity. Creation-Date: 2014-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2014/wp2014-25.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2014-25 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: CEPII NTM-MAP: A Tool for Assessing the Economic Impact of Non-Tariff Measures Author-Name: Julien Gourdon Keywords: trade;non-tariff measures Classification-JEL:F13;F15;O19 Abstract: This paper documents NTM-MAP, CEPII’s database measuring the incidence of Non-Tariff Measures through different methodologies, based on UNCTAD multilateral database. Three indexes are proposed as proxies for NTMs occurrence: frequency index, coverage ratio and prevalence score. Those indices are systematically computed for several countries and products classifications and for five different categories of NTMs (SPS, TBT, PSI, Price Control and Quantitative Restrictions). 63 countries are covered, with reference year 2010, 2011 or 2012, using two different product disaggregation levels (HS-2 and HS-Section). This comprehensive dataset on non-tariff measures is intended for descriptive, trade policy or econometric analysis. Creation-Date: 2014-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2014/wp2014-24.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2014-24 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Trade Policy Coordination and Food Price Volatility Author-Name: Christophe Gouel Keywords: commodity price stabilization;export restrictions;repeated game;WTO Classification-JEL:F13;Q17;Q18 Abstract: Many countries adjust their trade policies countercyclically with food prices, to the extent that the use by numerous food exporters of export restrictions has occasionally threatened the food security of food importing countries. These trade policies are inconsistent with the terms-of-trade motivation often retained to characterize the payoff frontier of self-enforcing trade agreements, as they can worsen the terms of trade of the countries that apply them. This paper analyzes trade policy coordination when trade policies are driven by terms-of-trade effects and a desire to reduce domestic food price volatility. This framework implies that importing and exporting countries have incentives to deviate from cooperation at different periods: the latter when prices are high and the former when prices are low. Since staple food prices tend to have asymmetric distributions, with more prices below than above the mean but with occasional spikes, a self-enforcing agreement generates asymmetric outcomes. Without cooperation, an importing country uses more frequently its trade policy because of the concentration of prices below the mean, but an exporting country has a greater incentive to deviate from a cooperative trade policy because positive deviations from the mean price are larger than negative ones. Thus, the asymmetry of the distribution of commodity prices can make it more difficult to discipline export taxes than tariffs in trade agreements. Creation-Date: 2014-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2014/wp2014-23.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2014-23 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Circular Relationship between Inequality, Leverage, and Financial Crises: Intertwined Mechanisms and Competing Evidence Author-Name: Rémi Bazillier Author-Name: Jérôme Héricourt Keywords: Finance;Inequality;financial crises;household debt Classification-JEL:D31;D33;E25;E50;G18 Abstract: The academic interest around the well-known inequality-finance nexus has recently been the subject of a renewed attention. A recent, yet flourishing literature started pointing inequality as a possible cause credit bubbles, leading to financial crises. Based on the existing literature, this paper aims at disentangling the various influences underlying the two-way relationship between inequality and finance, by focusing on a causality chain made of three main links: inequality, credit, and financial crises. The literature finds evidence of a positive causal relationship from inequality to credit, both direct (a rise of credit demand as a result of high inequalities) and indirect (inequality incites governments to support credit supply in order to maintain aggregate consumption); coincident factors are not to be excluded either (financial deregulation increasing simultaneously both inequalities and leverage). As credit booms appear to be the main determinant of financial crises, the possible direct and indirect impact of inequalities on such booms is a fundamental dimension to be taken into account by policymakers. Finally, the literature does not provide decisive conclusions concerning the sign of the distributional impact of financial development, financial deregulation and financial crises. It is fair to say however, that a majority of studies conclude to an increase of inequality following a financial crisis. The gaps identified in the literature allow pointing at several avenues for future research. Creation-Date: 2014-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2014/wp2014-22.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2014-22 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Knocking on Tax Haven's Door: Multinational Firms and Transfer Pricing Author-Name: Ronald B. Davies Author-Name: Julien Martin Author-Name: Mathieu Parent Author-Name: Farid Toubal Keywords: Transfer pricing;Tax haven;Pricing to market Classification-JEL:F23;H25;H32 Abstract: This paper analyzes the transfer pricing of multinational firms. We propose a simple framework in which intra-firm prices may systematically deviate from arm's length prices for two motives: i) pricing to market, and ii) tax avoidance. Multinational firms may decide not to avoid taxes if the risk to be sanctioned is high compared to the tax gap. Using detailed French firm-level data on arm's length and intra-firm export prices, we find that both mechanisms are at work. The sensitivity of intra-firm prices to foreign taxes is reinforced once we control for pricing-to-market determinants. Most importantly, we find almost no evidence of tax avoidance if we disregard exports to tax havens. Back-of-theenvelope calculations suggest that tax avoidance through transfer pricing amounts to about 1% of the total corporate taxes collected by tax authorities in France. The lion's share of this loss is driven by the exports of 450 firms to ten tax havens. As such, it may be possible to achieve significant revenue increases with minimal cost by targeting enforcement. Creation-Date: 2014-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2014/wp2014-21.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2014-21 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Agricultural Supply Chains and Farmers Constraints: Welfare Impacts in ECOWAS Countries Author-Name: Nicolas Depetris-Chauvin Author-Name: Guido Porto Keywords: Supply chains;Food crops;Cash crops;Market Structure Classification-JEL:Q12;Q13 Abstract: We study the interplay between market structure and other domestic factors that affect the production and consumption decisions of agricultural families in Africa. We are interested in modeling the production allocation of factors of production to various cash and food crops and in how this allocation depends on competition along the supply chain and on the constraints faced by different types of farmers. The model describes the behavior of farms, exporters and importers in a simple partial equilibrium setting. In particular, we build three different versions of the model to deal with the three basic scenarios that we face in our empirical work. That is, we build a model to explore the case of cash crop production (mostly for exports). We then adapt this model to deal with the case of a country that is a net exporter of a food crop. Finally, we develop a different version of the model for the case of a country that is a net importer of a food crop. We study changes in market structure and in key parameters of the model that capture various household constraints and institutional access. We analyze the changes in real income of household caused by the hypothetical price changes of cash and food crops predicted by the models’ simulations in Burkina Faso, Ghana, Nigeria and Senegal. Creation-Date: 2014-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2014/wp2014-20.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2014-20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Corporate Debt Structure and Economic Recoveries Author-Name: Thomas Grjebine Author-Name: Urszula Szczerbowicz Author-Name: Fabien Tripier Keywords: Corporate Debt;Bonds Markets;Banking;Business Cycles;Recovery;Financial Frictions Classification-JEL:E3;E4;G1;G2 Abstract: This paper analyzes the business cycle behavior of the corporate debt structure and its interaction with economic recovery. The debt structure is measured as the share of bonds in the total credit to non-financial corporations for a quarterly panel of twenty five economies over the period 1989-2013. We first show that the substitution of loans for bonds in recoveries is a regular property of business cycles. Secondly, we provide evidence that economies with high bond share and important bond-loan substitution recover from the recessions faster. The relation between the corporate debt structure and the economic recovery is maintained when controls for the developments of financial markets are introduced. A theoretical model is developed to explain this relation as the outcome of financial constraints on bank credit supply. Creation-Date: 2014-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2014/wp2014-19.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2014-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: A Search-Theoretic Approach to Efficient Financial Intermediation Author-Name: Fabien Tripier Keywords: Banking;Search;Search;Matching;Switching Costs;Efficiency Classification-JEL:C78;D83;G21 Abstract: This article develops a search-theoretic model of financial intermediation to study the efficiency condition of the banking sector. Competitive financial intermediation is determined by the search decisions of both households (to find adequate financial products) and banks (to attract depositors through marketing and to select borrowers through auditing) and by the interest rate setting mechanism. The efficiency of the competitive economy requires that interest rates are posted by banks or are bargained under a specific Hosios (1990) condition, which addresses the hold-up problem induced by search frictions on the credit and deposit markets. Interbank market frictions are introduced to show how an interbank market crisis leads to inefficient financial intermediation characterized by credit rationing and high net interest margin. Creation-Date: 2014-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2014/wp2014-18.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2014-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Capital Inflows, Exchange Rate Regimes and Credit Dynamics in Emerging Market Economies Author-Name: Robin Boudias Keywords: Emerging market economies;capital flows;domestic credit;dollarization;PSTR Classification-JEL:C33;E42;F31;O16 Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of the exchange rate regime (ERR) on the cycle of capital fl ows, the private credit growth rate and the level of dollarization in emerging market economies. We consider two different panels including 12 and 22 countries over the periods 1980-2010 and 1994-2008, respectively. We estimate a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model in order to assess whether the impact of ERR on credit dynamics is affected by the cyclical component of capital fl ows. Our fi ndings are threefold. First, the ERR has no impact on the cyclical component of capital fl ows. Second, credit expansion is procyclical in economies with pegged curencies. Third, during capital infl ows or low outfl ows periods, economies with fi xed exchange rate regimes show a higher level of dollarization. When outfl ows are sizeable, ERR no longer impacts the level of dollarization. These results suggest that ERR should be an important variable in conceiving the policy mix to cope with domestic credit expansions and liability dollarization. Creation-Date: 2014-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2014/wp2014-17.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2014-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The cleansing effect of minimum wage : Minimum wage rules, firm dynamics and aggregate productivity in China Author-Name: Sandra Poncet Author-Name: Florian Mayneris Author-Name: Tao Zhang Keywords: minimum wages;firm-level performance;aggregate TFP;China Classification-JEL:F10;F14;O14 Abstract: We study how the 2004 reform of minimum wage rules in China has affected the survival, average wage, employment and productivity of local firms. To identify the causal effect of minimum wage growth, we use firm-level data for more than 160,000 manufacturing firms active in 2003 and complement the triple difference estimates with an IV strategy that builds on the institutional features of the 2004 reform. We find that the increase in city-level minimum wages resulted in lower survival probability for firms that were the most exposed to the reform. For surviving firms, wage costs increased without negative repercussions on employment. The main explanation for this finding is that productivity significantly improved, allowing firms to absorb the cost shock without hurting their employment nor their profitability. At the city-level, our results show that higher minimum wages fostered aggregate productivity growth thanks to productivity improvements of incumbent firms and net entry of more productive ones. Hence, in a fast-growing economy like China, there is a cleansing effect of labor market standards. Minimum wage growth allows more productive firms to replace the least productive ones and forces incumbent firms to strengthen their competitiveness, these two mechanisms boosting the aggregate efficiency of the economy. Creation-Date: 2014-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2014/wp2014-16.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2014-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: International Trade and Firm-Level Markups when Location and Quality Matter Author-Name: Flora Bellone Author-Name: Patrick Musso Author-Name: Lionel Nesta Author-Name: Frederic Warzynski Keywords: Mark-ups;International Trade;Productivity Classification-JEL:f14;D24 Abstract: In this paper, we estimate firm-level markups and test some micro-level predictions of a model of international trade with heterogeneous firms and endogenous markups. Our theoretical framework is an extended version of the Melitz and Ottaviano (2008) (MO) model that features both quality and spatial differentiation across firms. In line with our model, we find that firm markups are positively related to firm productivity and negatively related to the toughness of local competition. Considering the relationship between firm markups and exports, we find evidence that markups are higher for exporters, what appears to indicate that the quality-enhancing channel overbalances the price-depressing channel of global competition. Creation-Date: 2014-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2014/wp2014-15.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2014-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Offshoring and the Shortening of the Quality Ladder: Evidence from Danish Apparel Author-Name: Valérie Smeets Author-Name: Sharon Traiberman Author-Name: Frederic Warzynski Keywords: Quality;Offshoring;Firm Heterogeneity Classification-JEL:f14;d24 Abstract: Recently a small and growing empirical literature has attempted to analyze the role that quality plays in our understanding of trade. In particular, the recent work of Khandelwal (2010) has brought the insights of structural IO models of demand to bear into trade data. Our work builds on this new structural literature; we use similar demand estimation techniques on a panel of Danish apparel firms from 1997 to 2010 in order to analyze how firms responded to China's entry to the WTO and the dismantling of the Multi-Fibre Agreement. We explore the implications of offshoring and import competition on the distribution of apparel quality within Denmark, and demonstrate the firm-level mechanisms that induced the observed aggregate changes. In particular, we show that the quality ladder tightens in response to trade shocks as initially low quality firms upgrade their quality relative to other firms while initially middle and high quality downgrade their output quality. An important qualification is that the quality of exports from the source country is a key determinant in both the uptake of offshoring and resultant decisions regarding quality. Finally, import competition appears to spur entry of higher quality firms and exit of lower quality producers. Nevertheless, the reallocation pattern is imperfect, suggesting that two sources of heterogeneity – the productivity and the quality margin - are key to understanding these patterns. Creation-Date: 2014-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2014/wp2014-14.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2014-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Migration and Regional Trade Agreement: a (new) Gravity Estimation Author-Name: Gianluca Orefice Author-Name: Luiz Lima Author-Name: Erik Figueiredo Keywords: Migration;Gravity Equation;Censored Quantile Regression Classification-JEL:C13;C23;F22;F13 Abstract: This paper investigates the role of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) on bilateral international migration. By increasing the information on the potential destination country, RTAs may favour bilateral migration flows among member countries. Building on the gravity model for migration by Anderson (2011), our econometric strategy controls for the multilateral resistance to migration (Bertoli and Fernandez-Huertas Moraga, 2013) and solves the zero migration flows problem by using a censored quantile regression approach. Further, the endogeneity problem of RTAs in migration settlement is addressed by using IV censored quantile regression (Chernozhukov and Hansen 2008). Our results suggest that the presence of a RTA stimulates the migration flows among member countries. The pro-migration effect of RTAs is magnified if the agreement includes also provisions easing bureaucratic procedures for visa and asylum among member countries. Finally, we find a non-linear effect of RTAs across the quantiles of the distribution of migration settlements. Creation-Date: 2014-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2014/wp2014-13.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2014-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Fragmenting global business processes: A protection for proprietary information Author-Name: Julien Gooris Author-Name: Carine Peeters Keywords: Fragmentation;Misappropriation;Services;Information;Institutional environment;Outsourcing Classification-JEL:F23;O34;L8 Abstract: With the progress of information and communication technologies, the cost and efforts to remotely exchange information have drastically fallen. It has created new opportunities to leverage comparative advantages by reorganizing value chains along the geographic dimension and by reconsidering the organizational boundaries of the firm (i.e. the governance model of operations). However the global disaggregation of the firm’s processes tends to increase the dispersion of firm’s proprietary information and knowledge across locations and intermediate producers. Firms are potentially exposed to higher levels of misappropriation hazard and forced to elaborate protection strategies to mitigate that risk. This study shows that firms adjust the fragmentation of activities entrusted to foreign services production units to adapt their information and knowledge protection strategy to the availability of strong legal protection (from the local institutions) or internal control mechanisms. We hypothesize and empirically support that, when the above mechanisms are not available, firms use the substitute protection mechanism of fragmenting global business processes across multiple services production units. Through their capabilities to integrate the multiple fragments that compose production processes, firms can exploit the complementarities between these fragments while reducing the misappropriation hazard of individual fragments. We find also that the propensity to turn to this alternative protection mechanism increases with firm’s host country specific experience and with the alternative value of the proprietary information. Creation-Date: 2014-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2014/wp2014-12.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2014-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Risk shocks and divergence between the Euro area and the US Author-Name: Thomas Brand Author-Name: Fabien Tripier Keywords: Great recession;Business cycles;Uncertainty;Divergence;Risk Shocks Classification-JEL:E3;E4;G3 Abstract: Why have the Euro area and the US diverged since 2011 while they were highly synchronized during the recession of 2008-2009? To explain this divergence, we provide a structural interpretation of these episodes through the estimation of a business cycle model with financial frictions for both economies. Our results show that risk shocks, measured as the volatility of idiosyncratic uncertainty in the financial sector, have played a crucial role in the divergence with the absence of risk reversal in the Euro area. Risk shocks have stimulated US credit and investment growth since the trough of 2009 whereas they have been at the origin of the double-dip recession in the Euro area. A companion website is available at http://visualdata.cepii.fr/risk-shocks-and-divergence. Creation-Date: 2014-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2014/wp2014-11.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2014-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Servitization of French Manufacturing Firms Author-Name: Matthieu Crozet Author-Name: Emmanuel Milet Keywords: Désindustrialisation;Servitisation Classification-JEL:D2;L8 Abstract: The story of deindustrialization of developed economies is now old and well-observed. In most developed countries, value added by manufacturing as a percentage of GDP has decreased continuously since the 1950's, and is now less than 15% in most OECD countries. The shift of value added and employment away from manufacturing toward services may be even deeper than suggested by data based on sectoral classification. As the complexity and diversity of firms' activities grow, the boundary between services and industries becomes increasingly elusive. This paper uses detailed balance sheet data from a very large panel of French firms to examine the production and the sales of services by manufacturing firms. Our data reveals that 83% of firms registered in manufacturing sectors provide services for third parties, and nearly one-third of these firms provide more services than goods. Additionally, we find that from 1997-2007 manufacturing firms have increased their production of services. This growing trend in ``servitization" suggests that deindustrialization, already observed on a country-scale, is also taking place within firms. Creation-Date: 2014-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2014/wp2014-10.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2014-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Immigrants and Firms' Productivity: Evidence from France Author-Name: Cristina Mitaritonna Author-Name: Gianluca Orefice Author-Name: Giovanni Peri Keywords: immigrants;firms;productivity;heterogeneity;fixed cost of hiring Classification-JEL:F22;E25;J61 Abstract: Immigrants may complement native workers, allow reallocation by skill in the firm and lower costs. These effects could be beneficial for the firm and increase its productivity and profits. However not all firmes use immigrants. Allowing firms to have differential fixed cost in hiring immigrants, because of different information and access to their network, we analyze the impact of an increase in local supply of immigrants on firms' immigrant employment and productivity. Using micro-level data on French firms during the period 1995-2005, we show that a supply-driven increase in foreign born workers in a department (location) increases the productivity of firms in that department. We also find that this effect is significantly stronger for firms with initially low (or zero) level of foreign employment. Those are also the firms whose share of immigrants increases the most. We also find that the positive productivity effect of immigrants is associated with faster growth of capital and improved export performances (for extensive and intensive margin) of the firms. While these outcomes depend on the firm share of immigrants in employment we find a positive effect of immigration on wages of natives and on specialization of natives in complex occupations that is common to all firms in the district. Supply-driven increase in foreign born workers in a department (location) implies a re-allocation of native workers towards communication and cognitive intensive tasks. Creation-Date: 2014-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2014/wp2014-09.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2014-09 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Trade Liberalization, Democratization and Technology Adoption Author-Name: Matteo Cervellati Author-Name: Alireza Naghavi Author-Name: Farid Toubal Keywords: Trade Openness; Democratization;Political Economy theory;Technology Adoption;Sector Level Data;Cross-Country Analysis Classification-JEL:F16;J24;O14;P51;F59 Abstract: We study the role of trade liberalization, democratization and their interaction for technology adoption. A general equilibrium theory with heterogeneous skills predicts a complementarity between trade and political regimes. Openness should accelerate technology adoption if coupled with democratization but may lead to a slowdown if these regime changes are imbalanced. We use panel data on technology adoption at the sectoral level for the period 1980-2000. We exploit within country variation and the heterogenous timing of openness and democratization. The results document the existence of a positive interaction between these institutional changes for technology adoption. Creation-Date: 2014-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2014/wp2014-08.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2014-08 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Intellectual Property Rights, Product Complexity, and the Organization Author-Name: Alireza Naghavi Author-Name: Julia Spies Author-Name: Farid Toubal Keywords: Outsourcing;Product complexity;Intellectual Property Rights;Technology Sharing Classification-JEL:F12;F23;O34 Abstract: This paper studies how the Intellectual Property Right (IPR) regime in destination countries influences the way multinationals structure the international organization of their production. In particular, we explore how multinationals divide tasks of different complexities across countries with different levels of IPR protection. The analysis studies the decision of firms between procurement from related parties and from independents suppliers at the product level. It also breaks down outsourcing into two types by distinguishing whether or not they involve technology sharing between the two parties. We combine data from a French firm-level survey on the mode choice for each transaction with a newly developed complexity measure at the product level. Our results confirm that firms are generally reluctant to source highly complex goods from outside firm boundaries. By studying the interaction between product complexity and the IPR protection, we obtain that (i) for technology-sharing-outsourcing IPRs promote outsourcing of more complex goods to a destination country by guaranteeing the protection of their technology, (ii) for non-technology-related-outsourcing IPRs attract the outsourcing of less complex products that are more prone to reverse engineering and simpler to decodify and imitate. Creation-Date: 2014-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2014/wp2014-07.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2014-07 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Development of EU and EU Member States' External Competitiveness Author-Name: Angela Cheptea Author-Name: Charlotte Emlinger Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Gianluca Orefice Author-Name: Olga Pindyuk Keywords: Competitiveness;trade in value added Classification-JEL:F14;F15 Abstract: We revisit competitiveness issues using recent data and show that the global financial crisis has taken a toll on European producers that before 2007 were maintaining their market positions. The EU competitiveness in goods has recently deteriorated, even in the upper and high-tech segments of the world market. The decline recorded by European exporters is attributable purely to performance and not to adverse orientation of their exports. However, European exports are predominantly "Made in Europe" and include an increasing share of services. The within Europe advantages in manufacturing seem to have been exhausted and further gains imply moves outside the EU with an enhanced focus on the competitiveness in services as an important determinant of future European industry. Creation-Date: 2014-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2014/wp2014-06.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2014-06 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Incomplete VAT rebates to exporters : how do they affect China's export performance? Author-Name: Julien Gourdon Author-Name: Stéphanie Monjon Author-Name: Sandra Poncet Keywords: VAT system;Export tax;Export performance;China Classification-JEL:F10;F14;O14 Abstract: During the last decade, the Chinese government has frequently changed the value added tax (VAT) refund levels offered to exporters. Indeed, China's VAT system is not neutral, in particular because the exporters may not receive complete refund of the domestic VAT paid on their inputs. This paper investigates how changes in the VAT rebates affect export performance in China. Our empirical analysis relies on export volume data at the HS6 product level over the 2003-12 period. To address potential endogeneity, we exploit an eligibility rule that disqualifies processing trade with supplied materials from the rebates. We find that the adjustments to the VAT rebates have significant repercussions on the exported volume: a one percentage point increase in the VAT rebate can lead to a 7% increase in export volumes. This magnitude allows to better understand the strong resistance of China's exports amid the global recession. Creation-Date: 2014-02 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2014/wp2014-05.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2014-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Geographic Pattern of China's Growth and Convergence within Industry Author-Name: Françoise Lemoine Author-Name: Grégoire Mayo Author-Name: Sandra Poncet Author-Name: Deniz Ünal Keywords: China;Regional inequality;Manufacturing industry;Convergence;Growth Classification-JEL:F63;O14;O25;O53;R12 Abstract: Since the mid-2000s, the center of gravity of China's economic growth has shifted from the coastline to the inland and the gap in GDP per capita between the two areas has narrowed. This macroeconomic catch-up reflects, with a time lag, the convergence process which has been at work in manufacturing industry since the end of the 1990s and suggests that China is becoming increasingly integrated in terms of technological level. This pattern is in line with a process whereby the inland catches up the labor productivity level of the coast thanks to the transfer of technology and capital from these most advanced regions. Creation-Date: 2014-02 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2014/wp2014-04.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2014-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Looking at the Other Side of Carry Trades: Are there any Safe Haven Currencies? Author-Name: Virginie Coudert Author-Name: Cyriac Guillaumin Author-Name: Hélene Raymond Keywords: Carry trades;Safe haven;Safe haven currencies; Fama equation;Financial cycle;Smooth transition regression models Classification-JEL:C32;G11; G15 Abstract: We define “safe haven currencies” as those able to yield positive excess returns during crises and show that they are likely to have negative risk premia on the long-run. We try to identify them empirically by considering a sample of 26 currencies from advanced and emerging countries over a period spanning from 1999 to 2013. We first spot the currencies yielding negative mean excess returns over the long run and positive ones during crises; only the Japanese yen (JPY) and the US dollar (USD) meet these conditions. Second, we run a smooth transition regression (STR) of the Fama equation, in which we add the VIX as an explanatory and a transition variable, in order to capture the response of exchange rates over the global fi nancial cycle. The results also point out to the USD and the JPY as the only candidates for a safe haven role; despite its long-run appreciation trend, the Swiss franc does not qualify for this role, as it tends to follow the downward movement of the euro during the recent financial turmoil. Creation-Date: 2014-02 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2014/wp2014-03.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2014-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Tariff reductions, trade patterns and the wage gap in a monopolistic competition model with vertical linkages Author-Name: Francesco Di Comite Author-Name: Antonella Nocco Author-Name: Gianluca Orefice Keywords: PTAs;Vertical linkages;Wage gap Classification-JEL:F12;F16;J31 Abstract: In this paper we develop a three-country monopolistic competition model with variable elasticity of substitution and vertical linkages to study the impact of trade liberalization on trade creation, trade diversion and labor market outcomes. This framework allows us to identify a source of gain from trade often neglected in the literature: cost savings on capital investments. Our model is empirically motivated by the observation that trade liberalization stimulates trade between the integrating countries and diverts it away from third countries, but it is not associated with increases in exports towards the excluded countries. As for the labor market, trade liberalization is expected to: (i) lower unskilled employment in country-sectors with low export intensity and (ii) to increase the wage gap between skilled and unskilled workers. Trade liberalization is also expected to raise welfare. We test the model's predictions using a dataset on bilateral export flows from 17 OECD exporting countries towards 122 importing countries over the period 1996 to 2007. Our empirical analysis provides results in line with the theory and vindicates the inclusion of vertical linkages in future assessments of the impact of trade liberalization on trade flows, labor markets and welfare. Creation-Date: 2014-01 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2014/wp2014-02.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2014-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Oil price shocks and global imbalances: Lessons from a model with trade and financial interdependencies Author-Name: Jean-Pierre Allegret Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Author-Name: Audrey Sallenave Keywords: oil prices;global imbalances;global VAR Classification-JEL:C32;F32;Q43 Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate oil price shocks’ effects and their associated transmission channels on global imbalances. To this end, we rely on a Global VAR approach that allows us to account for trade and financial interdependencies between countries. Considering a sample of 30 oil-exporting and importing economies over the 1980-2011 period, we show that the nature of the shock—demand-driven or supply-driven—matters in understanding the effects of oil price shocks on global imbalances. In addition, we evidence that the main adjustment mechanism to oil shocks is based on the trade channel, the valuation channel being at play only on the short run. Creation-Date: 2014-01 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2014/wp2014-01.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2014-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: How Macroeconomic Imbalances Interact? Evidence from a Panel VAR Analysis Author-Name: Blaise Gnimassoun Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Keywords: Global imbalances;current account;output gap;exchange-rate misalignments;panel VAR Classification-JEL:F32;F31;C33 Abstract: This paper aims at investigating the interactions between three key macroeconomic imbalances, namely Global imbalances,current-account discrepancies (external imbalances), output gaps (internal imbalances), and exchange-rate misalignments. To this end, we rely on the estimation of a panel VAR model for a sample of 22 industrialized countries over the 1980-2011 period. Our findings show that macroeconomic imbalances strongly interact through a causal relationship. We evidence that if current-account disequilibria threaten the stability of the global economy, their origin can be found in internal imbalances and exchange-rate misalignments: positive output-gap shocks as well as currency overvaluation deepen current-account deficits. In addition, while variations in external imbalances mainly result from exchange-rate misalignments in the euro area, they are mostly explained by output gaps for non-eurozone members. Creation-Date: 2013-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-42.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-42 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Search Frictions, Credit Market Liquidity, and Net Interest Margin Cyclicality Author-Name: Kevin E. Beaubrun-Diant Author-Name: Fabien Tripier Keywords: Search Friction;Matching Model;Nash Bargaining;Bank Interest Margin Classification-JEL:C78;E32;E44;G21 Abstract: The present paper contributes to the body of knowledge on search frictions in credit markets by demonstrating their ability to explain why the net interest margins of banks behave countercyclically. During periods of expansion, a fall in the net interest margin proceeds from two mechanisms: (i) lenders accept that they must finance entrepreneurs that have lower productivity and (ii) the liquidity of the credit market rises, which simplifies access to loans for entrepreneurs and thereby reinforces their threat point when bargaining the interest rate of the loan. Creation-Date: 2013-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-41.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-41 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: On the Impact of Oil Price Volatility on the Real Exchange Rate - Terms of Trade Nexus : Revisiting Commodity Currencies Author-Name: Virginie Coudert Author-Name: Cécile Couharde Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Keywords: Commodity currencies;Oil price;Non-linearity Classification-JEL:C23;F31;Q43 Abstract: The aim of this paper is to study the relationship between terms of trade and real exchange rates of commodityproducing Commodity currencies,countries on both the short and the long run. We pay particular attention to the dominant role played by oil among commodities by investigating the potential non-linear effect exerted by the situation on the oil market on the real exchange rate - terms of trade nexus. To this end, we rely on the panel smooth transition regression methodology to estimate the adjustment process of the real effective exchange rate to its equilibrium value depending on the volatility on the oil market. Considering a panel of 52 commodity exporters and 17 oil exporters over the 1980-2012 period, our findings show that while exchange rates are mainly driven by fundamentals in the low-volatility regime, they are mostly sensitive to changes in terms of trade when oil price variations exceed a certain threshold. The commodity-currency property is thus at play in the short run only for important variations in the oil price. Creation-Date: 2013-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-40.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-40 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: MIRAGE-e: A General Equilibrium Long-term Path of the World Economy Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Jean Fouré Author-Name: Maria Priscila Ramos Keywords: CGE model;Dynamic Baseline;Growth model;Energy Classification-JEL:c53;c68;o44;o47;q56 Abstract: Thinking of how the relative sizes of countries and how the geography of world production and trade will be affected in the long run must be based on sound economic reasoning about the determinants of long term growth. It must also be embedded in a general equilibrium framework that takes account of the interactions among markets and sectors, as well as between countries. This paper takes stock of a three phase research project. The first step consists of deriving and estimating a three-factor (labour, capital, energy) macroeconomic growth model for a large set of individual countries, which fits two forms of technological progress (standard TFP and energy efficiency). The second step consists of recovering the sectoral detail with an energy-oriented Computable General Equilibrium model of the world economy calibrated to fit these projections. In a third step we confront the assumptions for our baseline to alternative scenarios. Creation-Date: 2013-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-39.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-39 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: What Did Happen in the DDA? Quantifying the Role of Negotiation Modalities Author-Name: Yvan Decreux Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Keywords: Doha Development Round;Computable General Equilibrium Model;Trade facilitation Classification-JEL:F13;F17 Abstract: Negotiators may reach a trade deal on a limited series of issues WTO Ministerial Conference in Bali (3–6 December 2013), one of these being trade facilitation. Based on a quantitative assessment taking into account the detail of the last proposals circulated, we argue however that the design of the negotiation led the DDA to a dead end. This quantification is performed with a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the world economy, while liberalisation of tariffs is taken into account at the product level in order to address exceptions, flexibilities as well as the non-linear design of the formulas. A reduction in domestic support and the phasing out of export subsidies in agriculture are taken into account, as well as trade facilitation. Importantly, we evaluate the impact of the Spring 2011 sectoral initiatives. Creation-Date: 2013-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-38.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-38 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Public-Debt Financing in the case of External Debt Author-Name: Gianluca Cafiso Keywords: External Debt;Auction Redemption Yield;Debt Stabilization;Vector Auto Regression;Regime Switch Classification-JEL:E63;F34;G11;H63 Abstract: The objective of this paper is to assess whether non-residents’ holdings of a country’s debt make a difference for debt stabilization, where non-residents’ holdings are considered external debt according to a Balance of Payments perspective. The analysis is empirical and considers the case of Italy, one of the world’s largest debt issuer. We detect two possible channels through which external debt might alter the conditions for debt stabilization. Among these, we focus on the Interest Rate Determination in the primary market of Government Bonds. Our results point out the irrelevance of the investors base for debt stabilization. Creation-Date: 2013-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-37.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-37 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Tariff Liberalization and Trade Integration of Emerging Countries Author-Name: Anne-Célia Disdier Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Mondher Mimouni Keywords: tariffs;trade liberalization;emerging countries;margins of trade Classification-JEL:F13;F15 Abstract: This paper investigates how tariff liberalization has affected exporting in emerging countries. We use a highly disaggregated (6 digit level of the harmonized system – HS – classification) bilateral measure of market access to compare tariffs applied in 1996 and 2006, which includes the timing of the Uruguay Round and episodes of bilateral liberalization. Our econometric estimations consider impacts on both the extensive and intensive margins of trade. The reduced tariffs imposed on emerging countries have contributed to growth in their exports of differentiated goods at the intensive margin; they have not affected the probability of recording new flows. Growth in emerging countries’ exports at the extensive margin of trade has been due mainly to an upward shift in their comparative advantage and improvements to their infrastructure. Creation-Date: 2013-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-36.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-36 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Fiscal Consolidations and Public Debt in Europe Author-Name: Gianluca Cafiso Author-Name: Roberto Cellini Keywords: Fiscal consolidations;debt/GDP ratio;Europe Classification-JEL:H63;E63 Abstract: The objective of this paper is to gain insights into the relationship between deficit-reducing policies and the evolution of the debt/GDP ratio. We consider past events of fiscal consolidation in a selected group of EU countries and check what is the associated change of the debt/GDP ratio both from a short and medium-term perspective. As for the medium-term perspective, we do also differentiate between tax-based and savings-based fiscal consolidations. Our results point towards a positive short-term effect, while the medium-term effect turns out to be negative. Savingsbased fiscal consolidations result to be less negative on the debt/GDP ratio’s evolution than tax-based ones. Creation-Date: 2013-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-35.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-35 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Border Carbon Ajustment in Europe and Trade Retaliation: What would be the Cost for European Union? Author-Name: Jean Fouré Author-Name: Houssein Guimbard Author-Name: Stéphanie Monjon Keywords: emission trading scheme;border carbon adjustment;trade retaliation Classification-JEL:D58;F18;Q56 Abstract: Unilateral climate policy, such as carbon pricing, represents an additional cost to the economy, especially to energyintensive industrial sectors, as well as those exposed to international competition. A border carbon adjustment (BCA) is often presented as an attractive policy option for countries that want to go ahead without waiting for a global climate agreement. We used the computable general equilibrium model MIRAGE-e to simulate the impact of the introduction of a BCA on imports of energy intensive products in EU and EFTA countries and to evaluate the export losses their main trade partners would suffer. Given that a BCA is a trade measure, it would certainly lead to disputes at the World Trade Organization (WTO). If the BCA is considered illegal, the losses suffered by some partners may justify retaliation, as authorized by a WTO dispute settlement. The overall aggregated impacts of these measures would be negative but marginal, meaning that neither the BCA nor trade retaliation would have a marked impact on consumers’ real income or GDP, while prohibitive retaliatory tariffs are more likely to target sensitive products in the EU. A BCA would ultimately be a signal of the EU’s willingness to maintain an ambitious climate policy. Creation-Date: 2013-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-34.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-34 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Evaluating Aid for Trade: A Survey of Recent Studies Author-Name: Olivier Cadot Author-Name: Ana Fernandes Author-Name: Julien Gourdon Author-Name: Aaditya Mattoo Author-Name: Jaime de Melo Keywords: Aid for trade (AFT);trade performance;gravity;impact evaluation Classification-JEL:F15;F35 Abstract: The paper reviews recent evidence from a wide range of studies, recognizing that a multiplicity of approaches is needed to learn what works and what does not. The review concludes that there is some support for the emphasis on reducing trade costs through investments in hard infrastructure (like ports and roads) and soft infrastructure (like customs). But failure to implement complementary reform – especially the introduction of competition in transport services – may erode the benefits of these investments. Direct support to exporters does seem to lead to diversification across products and destinations, but it is not yet clear that these benefits are durable. In general, it is difficult to rely on cross-country studies to direct AFT. More rigorous impact evaluation (IE) is an under-utilized alternative, but situations of “clinical interventions” in trade are rare and adverse incentives (due to agency problems) and costs (due to the small size of project) are a hurdle in implementation. Creation-Date: 2013-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-33.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-33 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Is There any Rebalancing in the Euro Area? Author-Name: Benjamin Carton Author-Name: Karine Hervé Keywords: Exchange Rates;Current Account Adjustment;Euro Area Classification-JEL:F31;F32;F36 Abstract: We assess the evolution of real exchange rate misalignments within the euro area from a Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate (FEER) approach. We test the robustness of the results by comparing three different estimations of the output gap. Whatever the output gap assumption, Southern countries were massively overvalued before the euro area crisis. However, the magnitude of the adjustment since is sensitive to the output gap. In particular, Greece has not registered any improvement considering an output gap that captures the financial cycle (10-15 years) instead of the business cycle (5 years). Spain and Portugal have significantly reduced their misalignment but against France and Italy instead of Germany. As a consequence, imbalances in the euro area have not reduced. Creation-Date: 2013-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-32.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-32 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: IPR, Product Complexity and the Organization of Multinational Firms Author-Name: Alireza Naghavi Author-Name: Julia Spies Author-Name: Farid Toubal Keywords: outsourcing;product complexity;intellectual property rights;technology sharing Classification-JEL:F12;F23;O34 Abstract: This paper studies how the Intellectual Property Right (IPR) regime in destination countries influences the way multinationals structure the international organization of their production. In particular, we explore how multinationals divide tasks of different complexities across countries with different levels of IPR protection. The analysis studies the decision of firms between procurement from related parties and from independents suppliers at the product level. It also breaks down outsourcing into two types by distinguishing whether or not they involve technology sharing between the two parties. We combine data from a French firm-level survey on the mode choice for each transaction with a newly developed complexity measure at the product level. Our results confirm that firms are generally reluctant to source highly complex goods from outside firm boundaries. By studying the interaction between product complexity and the IPR protection, we obtain that (i) for technology-sharing outsourcing IPRs promote outsourcing of more complex goods to a destination country by guaranteeing the protection of their technology, (ii) for non-technologyrelated-outsourcing IPRs attract the outsourcing of less complex products that are more prone to reverse engineering and simpler to decodify and imitate. Creation-Date: 2013-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-31.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-31 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Determinants of International Mobility of Students Author-Name: Michel Beine Author-Name: Romain Noël Author-Name: Lionel Ragot Keywords: student mobility;network effect;migration costs;attractiveness policy Classification-JEL:f22;o15 Abstract: This paper analyzes the determinants of the choice of location of international students. Building on the documented trends in international migration of students, we develop a small theoretical model allowing to identify the various factors associated to the attraction of migrants as well as the costs of moving abroad. Using new data capturing the number of students from a large set of origin countries studying in a set of 13 OECD countries, we assess the importance of the various factors identified in the theory. We find support for a significant network effect in the migration of students, a result so far undocumented in the literature. We also find a significant role for cost factors such as housing prices and for attractiveness variables such as the reported quality of universities. In contrast, we do not find an important role for registration fees (reverse causality, signal of quality, covered by grants). Creation-Date: 2013-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-30.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-30 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Current-Account Adjustments and Exchange-Rate Misalignments Author-Name: Blaise Gnimassoun Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Keywords: Current-account imbalances;current-account persistence;exchange-rate misalignments;panel smooth transition regression models Classification-JEL:F32;F31;c33 Abstract: This paper aims at studying current-account imbalances by paying a particular attention to exchange-rate misalignments. We rely on a nonlinear model linking the persistence of current account imbalances to the deviation of the exchange rate to its equilibrium value. Estimating a panel smooth transition regression model on a sample of 22 industrialized countries, we show that persistence of current-account imbalances strongly depends on currency misalignments. More specifically, while there is no persistence in cases of currency undervaluation or weak overvaluation, persistence tends to augment for overvaluations higher than 11%. In addition, whereas disequilibria are persistent even for very low overvaluations in the euro area, persistence is observed only for overvaluations higher than 14% for non-eurozone members. Creation-Date: 2013-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-29.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-29 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Energy Prices and the Real Exchange Rate of Commodity-Exporting Countries Author-Name: Magali Dauvin Keywords: energy prices;terms-of-trade;exchange rate;commodity-exporting countries;panel cointegration;nonlinear model;PSTR Classification-JEL:C33;F31;O13;Q43 Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between energy prices and the real effective exchange rate of commodity-exporting countries. We consider two sets of countries: 10 energy-exporting and 23 commodity-exporting countries over the period 1980-2011. Estimating a panel cointegrating relationship between the real exchange rate and its fundamentals, we provide evidence for the existence of "energy currencies". Relying on the estimation of panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) models, we show that there exists a certain threshold beyond which the real effective exchange rate of both energy and commodity exporters reacts to oil prices, through the terms-of-trade. More specifically, when oil price variations are low, the real effective exchange rates are not determined by terms-of-trade but by other usual fundamentals. Nevertheless, when the oil market is highly volatile, currencies follow an "oil currency" regime, terms-of-trade becoming an important driver of the real exchange rate. Creation-Date: 2013-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-28.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-28 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook Author-Name: Keith Head Author-Name: Thierry Mayer Keywords: Gravity equations;International trade Classification-JEL:F10 Abstract: This chapter focuses on the estimation and interpretation of gravity equations for bilateral trade. This necessarily involves a careful consideration of the theoretical underpinnings since it has become clear that naive approaches to estimation lead to biased and frequently misinterpreted results. There are now several theory-consistent estimation methods and we argue against sole reliance on any one method and instead advocate a toolkit approach. One estimator may be preferred for certain types of data or research questions but more often the methods should be used in concert to establish robustness. In recent years, estimation has become just a first step before a deeper analysis of the implications of the results, notably in terms of welfare. We try to facilitate diffusion of best-practice methods by illustrating their application in a step-by-step cookbook mode of exposition. Creation-Date: 2013-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-27.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-27 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: What Separates Us? Sources of Resistance to Globalization Author-Name: Keith Head Author-Name: Thierry Mayer Keywords: Globalization;Gravity;Cultural differences Classification-JEL:F10 Abstract: With increasing sophistication, economists have been estimating gravity equations for five decades. Robust evidence shows that borders and distance impede trade by much more than tariffs or transport costs can explain. We therefore advocate investigation of other sources of resistance, despite the greater difficult involved in measuring and modeling them. From our selective review of recent findings, a unifying explanation emerges. A legacy of historical isolation and conflict forged a world economy in which neither tastes nor information are homogeneously distributed. Cultural difference and inadequate information manifest themselves most strongly at national borders and over distance. Creation-Date: 2013-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-26.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-26 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Economic Incentives of Cultural Transmission: Spatial : Spatial Evidence from Naming Patterns across France Author-Name: Yann Algan Author-Name: Thierry Mayer Author-Name: Mathias Thoenig Keywords: Cultural transmission;Choice of first names Classification-JEL:D10 Abstract: This paper aims at studying how economic incentives influence cultural transmission. We do so in the context of naming decisions, a crucial expression of cultural identity. Our focus is on Arabic versus Non- Arabic names given by parents to their newborn babies in France over the 2003-2007 period. Our model of cultural transmission disentangles between three determinants: (i) vertical transmission of parental culture; (ii) horizontal influence from the neighborhood; (iii) economic penalty associated with names that sound culturally distinctive. Our identification is based on the sample of households being exogenously allocated across public housings dwellings. We find that economic incentives largely influence naming choices: In the absence of economic penalty, the annual number of babies born with an Arabic name would have been more than 50 percent larger. Our theory-based estimates allow us to perform a welfare analysis where we gauge the strength of cultural attachment in monetary units. We find that the vertical transmission of an Arabic name provides the same shift in parents’ utility as a 3% rise in lifetime income of the child. Creation-Date: 2013-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-25.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-25 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Network Analysis of World Trade using the BACI-CEPII dataset Author-Name: Luca De Benedictis Author-Name: Silvia Nenci Author-Name: Gianluca Santoni Author-Name: Lucia Tajoli Author-Name: Claudio Vicarelli Keywords: International Trade;Network Analysis;Density;Centrality;Stata;R;Pajek Classification-JEL:F10;F11;F14 Abstract: In this paper we explore the BACI-CEPII database using Network Analysis. Starting from the visualization of the World Trade Network, we then define and describe the topology of the network, both in its binary version and in its weighted version, calculating and discussing some of the commonly used network's statistics. We fin ally discuss some speci c topics that can be studied using Network Analysis and International Trade data, both at the aggregated and sectoral level. The analysis is done using multiple software (Stata, R, and Pajek). The scripts to replicate part of the analysis are included in the appendix, and can be used as an handson tutorial. Moreover,the World Trade Network local and global centrality measures, for the unweighted and the weighted version of the Network, calculated using the bilateral aggregate trade data for each country (178 in total) and each year (from 1995 to 2010,) can be downloaded from the CEPII webpage. Creation-Date: 2013-08 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-24.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-24 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Per-Unit Duties: Friends or Foes of Developing Country Exporters? Author-Name: Charlotte Emlinger Author-Name: Houssein Guimbard Keywords: specific duties;agricultural trade;developing countries;trade unit values Classification-JEL:F13;F14;F15 Abstract: Protectionist instruments such as tariffs can distort the prices of traded goods. This paper explores the impact of specific (per-unit) duties on patterns of agricultural trade. Specific duties may encourage countries to export higher priced products, leading to an “Alchian-Allen effect” on unit values. Their restrictive effect on trade values is smaller for developed compared to developing countries. It can be explained by the specialization of these countries on low-priced products and by the low level of quality differentiation among their exports. Our results highlight the discriminating nature of specific duties for low-income countries. Creation-Date: 2013-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-23.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-23 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Opening a Pandora's Box: Modelling World Trade Patterns at the 2035 Horizon Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Jean Fouré Keywords: Growth;Macroeconomic Projections;Dynamic Baselines Classification-JEL:E23;E27;F02;F17;F47 Abstract: Economic projections for the world economy, particularly in relation to the construction of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) baselines, are generally rather conservative and take scant account of the wide range of possible evolutions authorized by the underlying economic mechanisms considered. Against this background, we adopt an ‘open mind’ to the projection of world trade trajectories. Taking a 2035 horizon, we examine how world trade patterns will be shaped by the changing comparative advantages, demand, and capabilities of different regions. We combine a convergence model fitting three production factors (capital, labour and energy) and two factor-specific productivities, alongside a dynamic CGE model of the world economy calibrated to reproduce observed elasticity of trade to income. Each scenario involves three steps. First, we project growth at country level based on factor accumulation, educational attainment and efficiency gains, and discuss uncertainties related to our main drivers. Second, we impose this framework (demographics, gross domestic product, saving rates, factors and current account trajectories) on the CGE baseline. Third, we implement trade policy scenarios (tariffs as well as non-tariff measures in goods and services), in order to get factor allocation across sectors from the model as well as demand and trade patterns. We show that the impact of changing baselines is greater than the impact of a policy shock on the order of magnitude of changes in world trade patterns, which points to the need for care when designing CGE baselines. Creation-Date: 2013-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-22.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-22 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Incidence of Bank Levy and Bank Market Power Author-Name: Gunther Capelle-Blancard Author-Name: Olena Havrylchyk Keywords: banks;bank levy;tax incidence; market power Classification-JEL:G21;H22;L13 Abstract: This is the first analysis of the incidence of a bank tax that is imposed on banks’ balance sheets. Within the framework of an oligopolistic version of the Monti-Klein model, the pass-through of a bank tax levied on loans is stronger when elasticity of credit demand is low. To test this hypothesis, we investigate the incidence of the Hungarian bank tax that was introduced in 2010 on banks’ assets. This case is well suited for our analysis because the tax rate is much higher for large banks than for small banks, which allows relying on difference-in-difference methodology to disentangle the impact of the tax from any other shock that might have occurred simultaneously. In line with model predictions, our estimations show that the tax is shifted to customers with the smallest demand elasticity, such as households. In terms of economic policy implications, our results suggest that enhanced borrower mobility could reduce the ability of banks to shift taxes to customers. Creation-Date: 2013-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-21.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-21 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: New Revealed Comparative Advantage Index: Dataset and Empirical Distribution Author-Name: Elsa Leromain Author-Name: Gianluca Orefice Keywords: Revealed Comparative Advantag;Ricardian model;Exports Classification-JEL:F11;F14 Abstract: Balassa Index (Balassa 1965) is widely used in the literature to measure country-sector Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA). However, being computed on observed trade flows, it mixes up all the factors influencing trade flows. In particular, Balassa Index cannot isolate exporter-sector (ex ante) specific factors which are the source of comparative advantage in the spirit of the traditional trade model. Furthermore, Balassa Index suffers some empirical distribution weaknesses, mainly time instability and poor ordinal ranking property (Yeats 1985; Hinloopen and Van Marrewijk 2001). A recent paper by Costinot et al. (2012) provides a micro-founded version of the Ricardian model and suggests a new measure for comparative advantage. We build up on this paper, and present a dataset providing a new econometric based measure for Ricardian RCA. Creation-Date: 2013-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-20.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Current Accounts and Oil Price Fluctuations in Oil-Exporting Countries: the Role of Financial Development Author-Name: Jean-Pierre Allegret Author-Name: Cécile Couharde Author-Name: Dramane Coulibaly Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Keywords: Current account;oil price;financial development;panel smooth transition;regression models Classification-JEL:F32;C33 Abstract: Oil-exporting countries usually experience large current account improvements following a sharp increase in oil prices. In this paper, we investigate this oil price-current account relationship on a sample of 27 oil-exporting economies. Relying upon the estimation of panel smooth transition regression models over the 1980-2010 period, we provide evidence that refines the traditional interpretation of oil price effects on current accounts. While current accounts are positively affected by oil price variations, this effect is nonlinear and depends critically on the degree of financial development of oil-exporting economies. More specifically, oil price variations exert a positive impact on the current account position for less financial developed countries, while this influence tends to diminish when the degree of financial deepness augments. Creation-Date: 2013-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-19.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: House Prices Drive Current Accounts: Evidence From Property Tax Variations Author-Name: François Geerolf Author-Name: Thomas Grjebine Keywords: Current accounts Classification-JEL:F32;F36;F40 Abstract: We study the causal link between house prices and current accounts. Across time and countries, we find a very large and significant impact of house prices on current accounts. In order to rule out endogeneity concerns, we instrument house prices for a panel of countries, using property tax variations. A 10% instrumented appreciation in house prices leads to a deterioration in the current account of 1.7% of GDP. These results are very robust to the inclusion of the determinants of current accounts. Following a house price increase, private savings decrease, through wealth effects rather than consumer-finance based mechanisms, while non-residential investment rises through a relaxation of financing constraints for firms. Creation-Date: 2013-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-18.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Does Services Liberalization Affect Manufacturing Firms' Export Performance? Evidence from India Author-Name: Maria Bas Keywords: Services liberalization;manufacturing firms’ export performance;firm heterogeneity;firm level data Classification-JEL:O10;O12;F1;L8 Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between the reform of energy, telecommunications and transport services in India in the mid-1990s and manufacturing firms’ export performance. The empirical analysis relies on exogenous indicators of regulation of Indian services sectors and detailed firm-level data from India in the 1994-2004 period. I find that the reform of upstream services sector has increased the probability of exporting and export sales shares of firms producing in downstream manufacturing industries. The results suggest that the effect of services liberalization on manufacturing firms’ export performance is stronger for initially more productive firms. These empirical findings are robust to alternative econometric specifications that control for other reforms, industry, firm characteristics and that deal with potential reverse causality concerns. Creation-Date: 2013-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-17.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Prices and Productivity: A France-Germany Comparison Author-Name: Laurence Nayman Keywords: France;Germany;relative price level;hourly labour productivity;unit labour costs;gross margins;investment Classification-JEL:E31;J24;J30;L60;O47 Abstract: This study compares French and German manufacturing price levels in 2007 and investigates in both countries over the 1991-2010 period value added price growth rates in manufacturing and services. Using the ICOP methodology and the data from the Eurostat production surveys, we calculate production price levels in the French and German manufacturing sector. Results show they are quite close to each other. As to growth rates, using national accounts data, while German manufacturing value added prices have been relatively stable between 1995 and 2010, French manufacturing prices have been falling. This relative decrease could be attributed to the relative fall in the French gross margins over the last years. This gap is not replicated in the aggregate value added prices. The latter have been rising more steeply in France than in Germany, and this is due to price fluctuations in services. The increase in the French compensation rate in services has been significantly larger than the hourly labour productivity. In Germany, with falling unit labour costs over the 2005-2007 years in the manufacturing sector, German firms could hoard substantial gross margins that, however, have only been partly allocated to investment. Creation-Date: 2013-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-16.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Trade Liberalization in the Bio-Economy: Coping with a New Landscape Author-Name: Jean-Christophe Bureau Author-Name: Sébastien Jean Keywords: Doha Round;WTO;Agricultural trade Classification-JEL:Q17;F10;F51 Abstract: Multilateral trade liberalization has made little progress over the last period, but preferential agreements have multiplied. Recent economic literature helps to understand the current negotiation game. New economic and political conditions, in particular the gaining influence of emerging countries, make a multilateral agreement more difficult. Developed countries have given up many of their bargaining chips in previous rounds of negotiation and their remaining agricultural tariffs are not sufficient for extracting the concessions from emerging countries on services, procurement, and intellectual property that would make an agreement possible. The risk of a more fragmented world calls for a revised negotiation agenda and a change in the status of developing countries. Research issues are outlined in order to help revitalize the Doha negotiation agenda. Creation-Date: 2013-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-15.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Impact of Yuan Internationalization on the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Yeganeh Forouheshfar Keywords: China;yuan;exchange-rate regime;euro;dollar Classification-JEL:F31;F33 Abstract: We study the implication of a multipolarization of the international monetary system on cross-currency volatility. More specifically, we analyze whether the internationalization of the yuan could modify the impact of asset supply and trade shocks on the euro-dollar exchange rate, within a three-country, three-currency portfolio model. Our static model shows that the internationalization of the yuan (defined as a rise in the yuan in international portfolios) would be either neutral or stabilizing for the euro-dollar rate, whatever the exchange-rate regime of China. Moving to a dynamic, stock-flow framework, we show that the internationalization of the yuan would make exchange-rate variations more efficient to stabilize net foreign asset positions after a trade shock. Creation-Date: 2013-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-14.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Post-Recession US Employment through the Lens of a Non-Linear Okun's Law Author-Name: Menzie Chinn Author-Name: Laurent Ferrara Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Keywords: Okun’s Law;Trend Employment;Non-Linear Modeling Classification-JEL:E24;E32;C22 Abstract: Cet article étudie la relation entre l’emploi et le PIB aux Etats Unis. Nous distinguons entre composantes cyclique et permanente de l’emploi via l’estimation d’une loi d’Okun non linéaire basée sur un modèle à correction d’erreur à transition lisse tenant compte simultanément des relations de long terme entre l’emploi et le PIB et de l’instabilité de court terme liée au cycle économique. Nos résultats, basés sur des prévisions conditionnelles hors échantillon, montrent que, depuis la sortie de la récession de 2008-2009, l’emploi aux Etats Unis est, en moyenne, environ 1% au-dessous du niveau donné par la relation d’équilibre de long terme entre l’emploi et le PIB. Creation-Date: 2013-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-13.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Disaster Risk in a New Keynesian Model Author-Name: Marlène Isoré Author-Name: Urszula Szczerbowicz Keywords: Disaster risk;rare events;DSGE models;business cycles Classification-JEL:E17;E20;E32;G12 Abstract: This paper incorporates a small and time-varying “disaster risk” à la Gourio (2012) in a New Keynesian model. A change in the probability of disaster may affect macroeconomic quantities and asset prices. In particular, a higher risk is sufficient to generate a recession without effective occurrence of the disaster. By accounting for monopolistic competition, price stickiness, and a Taylor-type rule, this paper provides a baseline framework of the dynamic interactions between the macroeconomic effects of rare events and nominal rigidity, particularly suitable for further analysis of monetary policy. We also set up our next research agenda aimed at assessing the desirability of several policy measures in case of a variation in the probability of rare events. Creation-Date: 2013-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-12.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Does Input-Trade Liberalization Affect Firms' Foreign Technology Choice? Author-Name: Maria Bas Author-Name: Antoine Berthou Keywords: Input-trade liberalization;firms’ decision to import capital goods;firm heterogeneity and firm level data Classification-JEL:F10;F14;D24 Abstract: Foreign technology transfers play a key role in economic growth. This paper investigates the effects of input-trade liberalization on firms’ decision to upgrade foreign technology embodied in imported capital goods. We develop a theoretical model of endogenous technology adoption, heterogeneous firms and imported inputs. Assuming that imported intermediate goods and high-technology are complementary and the existence of technology adoption fixed costs, the model predicts a positive effect of input tariff reductions on firms’ technology choice to source capital goods from abroad. This effect is heterogeneous across firms depending on their initial productivity level. Using firm-level data from India and imports of capital goods to measure high-technology, we demonstrate that the probability of importing capital goods is higher for firms producing in industries that have experienced greater cuts on tariffs on intermediate goods. Our findings also suggest that only those firms in the middle range of the productivity distribution have benefited from input-trade liberalization to upgrade their technology as predicted by the model. These empirical results are robust to alternative specifications that control for industry and firm characteristics, tariffs on capital goods, other reforms and alternative measures of technology. Creation-Date: 2013-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-11.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: A Model of Firm Experimentation under Demand Uncertainty: an Application to Multi-Destination Exporters Author-Name: Cristina Mitaritonna Author-Name: Zhanar Akhmetova Keywords: Demand Uncertainty;Optimal Experimentation;Heterogeneous Producers;New Exporter Dynamics;Structural Estimations;Bayesian Methods Classification-JEL:D21;D83;F14;C11;C33 Abstract: Firm level data exhibits that new exporters tend to start small, a large fraction of these drops out by the second year of exporting, and the survivors expand rapidly. To take into account this stylized fact, we propose a theory of firm behavior that assumes demand uncertainty about the profitability of exporting in a new market. The firm can postpone paying the sunk cost of full-scale entry and test the market by observing individual sales to a few consumers. The firm optimally chooses the experimentation intensity, as well as the exit/entry policy. Applying Bayesian econometric techniques, we structurally estimate the model using French firm-level export data. A given geographical regions is viewed as a target market,and countries within the region as consumers. The estimate of the sunk cost is higher than in a model where the sunk cost cannot be postponed, like Melitz (2003). We also perform counterfactual simulations (exchange rate, sunk cost and experimentation cost). Creation-Date: 2013-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-10.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Ability of Banks to Shift Corporate Income Taxes to Customers Author-Name: Gunther Capelle-Blancard Author-Name: Olena Havrylchyk Keywords: Bank taxation;Bank levy;Net interest margin;European banks;Banking;market structure;Corporate tax incidence Classification-JEL:G21;H25 Abstract: In the context of the financial crisis, many projects of bank levies have emerged. Yet, there is very little evidence on the incidence of bank taxes and, hence, it is not clear who will bear the burden of the new taxes. In this paper, we investigate the ability of banks to shift corporate income taxes to their clients and we consider whether tax incidence is influenced by market competition and banks’ market power. Our sample consists of 1,411 European commercial banks over the period 1992-2008. To measure competition we rely on a large number of indicators, such as banks’ market share, the Herfindhal index, the Lerner index and the Panzar and Rosse h-statistic. We find that even in uncompetitive markets banks are not able to shift corporate income taxes to their customers. Our results contradict earlier papers that find a significant pass-through, and we argue that previous studies suffer either from endogeneity problems or from the wrong specification of the tax burden. Creation-Date: 2013-02 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-09.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-09 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Internationalization versus Regionalisation in the Emerging Stock Markets Author-Name: Virgine Coudert Author-Name: Karine Hervé Author-Name: Pierre Mabille Keywords: Time-varying integration;emerging markets;stock markets;multivariate;BEKKGARCH Classification-JEL:C32;F36;G15 Abstract: Globalization has led financial markets to be more and more correlated across countries, especially between advanced and emerging countries. We propose to shed light on the issue of financial integration in emerging countries by resorting to complementary econometric approaches. For that, we draw a parallel between the results from a rolling window OLS regression - evaluating to what extent shocks on regional and developed stock markets are passed through to emerging markets - and the results from a trivariate BEKK-GARCH model assessing the dynamic of integration in emerging markets While regional integration is by and large a central characteristic of most emerging stock markets, the pattern of financial shocks transmission turns out to vary substantially across countries and over time. Creation-Date: 2013-02 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-08.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-08 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Economic Policy, Tourism Trade and Productive Diversification Author-Name: Iza Lejárraga Author-Name: Peter Walkenhorst Keywords: Tourism linkages;economic development;business enviroment Classification-JEL:F14;L83;O24 Abstract: Over the past two decades, tourism exports have been a major driver of economic growth in many emerging and developing countries. Yet, increased tourism revenues do not automatically translate into structural transformation and broad-based economic development. Drawing on cross-sectional data, this paper gauges the extent to which tourism has contributed to economic diversification in a large sample of developing countries. An econometric model is used to assess the relative importance of a country’s natural endowments, level of development, institutional maturity, business environment, and trade regulations in explaining cross-country differences in linkages between tourism and the general economy. The central findings contain encouraging lessons for developing countries: domains that are more amenable to policy interventions in the short term, such as the business environment or trade regulations, matter most in fostering productive linkages between tourism and the general economy. In contrast, fixed factors, such as land availability, or longer-terms goals, such as advances in the level of development, have less influence. Creation-Date: 2013-02 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-07.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-07 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Product Standards and Margins of Trade: Firm Level Evidence Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Gianluca Orefice Author-Name: Roberta Piermartini Author-Name: Nadia Rocha Keywords: International trade;firm heterogeneity;multi-product exporters;non-tariff barriers Classification-JEL:F12;F15 Abstract: This paper analyses the trade effects of restrictive product standards on the margins of trade for a large panel of French firms. To focus on restrictive product standards only, we use a new database compiling the list of measures that have been raised as concerns in dedicated committees of the WTO. We restrict our analysis to the subset of Sanitary and Phyto-Sanitary (SPS) regulatory measures and analyse the effects of product standards on three variables: (i) probability to export and to exit the export market (firm-product extensive margins), (ii) value exported (firm-product intensive margin) and (iii) export prices. In particular we study whether firms size, market shares and export orientation modify the effect of SPS measures. We find that SPS measures discourage exports. We also find a negative effect of SPS imposition on the intensive margins of trade. Finally, the negative effects of SPS measures on the extensive and intensive margins of trade are attenuated for big firms. Creation-Date: 2013-02 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-06.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-06 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: If Foreign Investment Is not Foreign: Round-Trip Versus Genuine Foreign Investment in Russia Author-Name: Svetlana Ledyaeva Author-Name: Päivi Karhunen Author-Name: John Whalley Keywords: Russia;round-trip investment;capital flight;foreign investment Classification-JEL:F21;F23 Abstract: In this paper we study the phenomenon of round-trip investment between Russia and key offshore financial centers (OFCs), namely, Cyprus and British Virgin Islands, which is now a significant part of foreign investment into Russia. Using firm-level data we study differences in location strategies between round-trip and genuine foreign investors into Russia and the factors which determine the fraction of round-trip investment in total foreign investment into Russian regions. In empirical analysis we also distinguish between different firm size and industries. We conclude that round-trip investors tend to invest more in corrupt and resource abundant Russian regions compared to genuine foreign investors. Furthermore, the share of round-trip investment in total foreign investment is significantly higher in corrupt Russian regions. In general, these results point to the corruption component of round-trip investment. Second, we find that genuine foreign investors tend to invest more in regions with higher level of skilled labour and use sea ports more compared to round-trip investors, indicating that genuine foreign investment is more technologically advanced and more oriented towards international markets than round trip. Creation-Date: 2013-02 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-05.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Preferential Trade Agreements Proliferation: Sorting out the Effects Author-Name: Sami Bensassi Author-Name: José de Sousa Author-Name: Joachim Jarreau Keywords: International trade;Armington hypothesis;Counterfactual Estimation;Trade creation and diversion Classification-JEL:F13;F12;F47 Abstract: This paper studies the implications of Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) proliferation. Using counterfactual estimation, we disentangle the treatment effect of one PTA on members’ trade and real income, from the externalities created by concurrent trade policy changes. Results, focusing on the MENA region between 2001 and 2007, reveal that the concurrent trade policy changes greatly weakened the trade creation effects of a PTA taken in isolation. However, countries do gain in real income from signing PTAs, even in the cases where trade creation is small; while non-members are negatively impacted. Thus, we confirm that most countries have benefited overall from tariff reductions in our period of study, but we show that this is true only because PTAs proliferate: countries offset adverse effects of non- membership, by signing new agreements with existing PTA members. Creation-Date: 2013-02 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-04.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Trend Shocks and Economic Development Author-Name: Claude Francis Naoussi Author-Name: Fabien Tripier Keywords: Business Cycle;Permanent shocks;Growth;Africa;Small open economy Classification-JEL:E32;F41;O55 Abstract: This article explores the role of trend shocks in explaining the specificities of business cycles in developing countries using the methodology introduced by Aguiar and Gopinath (2007) [“Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend” Journal of Political Economy 115(1)]. We specify a small open economy model with transitory and trend shocks on productivity to replicate the differences in the business cycle behavior observed between developed, emerging, and Sub-Saharan Africa countries. Our results suggest a strong relationship between the weight of trend shocks in the source of fluctuations and the level of economic development. The weight of trend shocks is (i) higher in Sub-Saharan Africa countries than in emerging and developed countries, (ii) negatively correlated with the level of income, the quality of institutions, and the size of the credit market, and (iii) uncorrelated with the volatility of aid received by countries, the inflation rate, and the trend in trade-openness. Creation-Date: 2013-01 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-03.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Nonlinearity of the inflation-output trade-off and time-varying price rigidity Author-Name: Antonia López-Villavicencio Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Keywords: Phillips curve;inflation;price rigidity;nonlinearity;menu costs Classification-JEL:E31;C22 Abstract: Relying on the backward-looking Phillips curve; we estimate the level of inflation that erodes price rigidity and investigate its time constancy. To this end; we employ smooth transition regression models with rolling regressions to account for varying threshold inflation levels. Studying six advanced countries over the 1970-2012 period; our results show that both the slope of the Phillips curve and the threshold; trend inflation that erodes price rigidity are time varying. These characteristics could not be captured by a static linear or nonlinear model; illustrating the rich flexibility embedded in our proposed model. Creation-Date: 2013-01 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-02.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Solow Growth Model with Keynesian Involuntary Unemployment Author-Name: Riccardo Magnani Keywords: Growth models;Neoclassical models;Keynesian models;Involuntary unemployment Classification-JEL:O40;E13;E12;J60 Abstract: The aim of this paper is to extend the Solow model in a way that permits to endogenize unemployment. Starting from a Neoclassical growth model, as the Solow model, we introduce a mechanism that allows us to determine the Keynesian unemployment, i.e. unemployment that is caused by the weakness of the aggregate demand. Using our base model, that works as a Keynesian demand-driven model, we find that an increase in the aggregate demand (due to a reduction in the saving rate or to an increase in public expenditures) reduces unemployment and stimulates the GDP. Then, we modify the investment function in order to take into account for the crowding-in/crowding-out effect on investments. This allows us to build a model which is between Neoclassical supply-driven models and Keynesian demand-driven models. Creation-Date: 2013-01 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2013/wp2013-01.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2013-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Does Migration Foster Exports? An African Perspective Author-Name: Hélène Ehrhart Author-Name: Maëlan Le Goff Author-Name: Emmanuel Rocher Author-Name: Raju Jan Singh Keywords: International Migration;Trade;Africa;Ethnicity Classification-JEL:F10;O15;O15 Abstract: This paper assesses the impact of migration on export performances. In particular, it highlights and helps understand how African migrants foster African trade. Relying on a new dataset on international bilateral migration recently released by the World Bank spanning from 1980 to 2010, we estimate a gravity model that deals satisfactorily with heteroscedasticity, zero bilateral flows and endogeneity. Our results indicate that the African Diaspora has a positive effect on African exports, suggesting a substitution effect between migrants and institutions, with the existence of migrant networks compensating for weaker contract enforcement, for instance. This positive association seems to be particularly important for the exports of differentiated products. Focusing on intra-African trade, we find that the pro-trade effect of African migrants is more important when migrants are established in a non-neighboring country, and in African countries whose ethnic groups are different from their own. Creation-Date: 2012-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2012/wp2012-38.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-38 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Impact of Market Regulations on Intra European Real Exchange Rates Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Dramane Coulibaly Keywords: Real exchange rate;Balassa-Samuelson effect;Product market regulations;Employment protection Classification-JEL:F41;J50;L40 Abstract: We study the contribution of market regulations in the dynamics of the real exchange rate within the European Union. Based on a model proposed by De Gregorio et al. (1994a), we show that both product market regulations in nontradable sectors and employment protection tend to inflate the real exchange rate. We then carry out an econometric estimation for European countries over 1985-2006 to quantify the contributions of the pure Balassa-Samuelson effect and those of market regulations in real exchange-rate variations. Based on this evidence and on a counter-factual experiment, we conclude that the relative evolution of product market regulations and employment protection across countries play a very significant role in real exchange-rate variations within the European Union and especially within the Euro area, through theirs impacts on the relative price of nontradable goods. Creation-Date: 2012-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2012/wp2012-37.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-37 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The ECB Unconventional Monetary Policies: Have They Lowered Market Borrowing Costs for Banks and Governments? Author-Name: Urszula Szczerbowicz Keywords: unconventional monetary policy;quantitative easing;credit easing;sovereign bond spreads;covered bond spreads;Euribor-OIS spread Classification-JEL:E43;E44;E52;E58 Abstract: This paper evaluates the impact of all ECB unconventional monetary policies implemented between 2007 and 2012 on bank and government borrowing costs. We employ event-based regressions to measure the effect of each policy. The borrowing conditions for banks are represented by money market spreads and covered bond spreads while the sovereign bond spreads reflect government borrowing costs. The results show that sovereign bond purchasing programs (SMP, OMT) proved to be the most effective in lowering longer-term borrowing costs for both banks and governments with the largest impact in periphery euroarea countries. The strong impact in the euro-area periphery suggests that the central bank intervention in sovereign market is particularly effective when the sovereign risk is important. Furthermore, both covered bond purchase programs and 3-year loans to banks reduced bank refinancing costs. Creation-Date: 2012-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2012/wp2012-36.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-36 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Exchange Rate Volatility, Financial Constraints and Trade: Empirical Evidence from Chinese Firms Author-Name: Jérôme Héricourt Author-Name: Sandra Poncet Keywords: Exchange rate volatility;financial development;exports Classification-JEL:F10;R12;L25 Abstract: This paper studies how firm-level export performance is affected by RER volatility and investigates whether this effect depends on existing financial constraints. Our empirical analysis relies on export data for more than 100,000 Chinese exporters over the period 2000-2006. We confirm a trade-deterring effect of RER volatility. We find that firms tend to export less and fewer products to destinations with higher exchange rate volatility and that this effect is magnified for financially vulnerable firms. As expected, financial development does seem to dampen this negative impact, especially on the intensive margin of export. Creation-Date: 2012-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2012/wp2012-35.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-35 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Multinational Retailers and Home Country Exports Author-Name: Angela Cheptea Author-Name: Charlotte Emlinger Author-Name: Karine Latouche Keywords: International Trade;Multinational Retailers Classification-JEL:F10;F12;F14;F23 Abstract: This paper questions whether the overseas expansion of a country’s retailers fosters overall bilateral exports towards these host markets. To address this question, we consider an empirical trade model, where the foreign sales of multinational retailers reduce the fixed and variable trade costs of their conational firms towards the same destination markets. We test our model with data on bilateral exports on a large panel of countries and the foreign sales of world’s largest one hundred retail companies over the 2001-2010 decade. We find a strong positive effect of the overseas presence of retailers of a given country on its exports to those markets. This outcome is far from being trivial, as most products sold in retailers foreign outlets are locally-produced. It testifies that the overseas presence of a country’s retail companies contributes to the reduction of trade costs towards these markets for other firms of the origin country. Our result is robust to different specifications, the use of different sets of instrumental variables and econometric approaches. Creation-Date: 2012-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2012/wp2012-34.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-34 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Food Prices and Inflation Targeting in Emerging Economies Author-Name: Marc Pourroy Author-Name: Benjamin Carton Author-Name: Dramane Coulibaly Keywords: Monetary Policy;Commodities;Food prices;DSGE models Classification-JEL:E32;E52;E37;O23 Abstract: The two episodes of food price surges in 2007 and 2011 have raised the question of how monetary authorities should react to such external relative price shocks. These inflation shocks have been particularly challenging for developing and emerging economies’ central banks who have adopted inflation targeting strategies during the last decade. We develop a new-Keynesian small open-economy model that distinguishes three price indexes: an overall consumer prices index, the exact index of core inflation based on sticky prices, and a proxy for the core inflation index based on non-food prices. We show that nonfood inflation is a good proxy for core inflation in high-income countries, but not for middle-income and low-income countries. Although, in these countries we find that associating non-food inflation and core inflation may be promoting badly-designed policies, and consequently central banks should target headline inflation rather than non-food inflation. This result holds because non-tradable food goods represent a significant share in total consumption. Indeed, the poorer the country, the higher the share of purely domestic food goods in consumption and the more detrimental lack of attention to the evolution in food prices. Creation-Date: 2012-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2012/wp2012-33.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-33 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Fiscal Consolidations and Banking Stability Author-Name: Jacopo Cimadomo Author-Name: Sebastian Hauptmeier Author-Name: Tom Zimmermann Keywords: Fiscal consolidations;bank balance sheets;portfolio re-balancing;banking stability Classification-JEL:E62;G11;G21;H30 Abstract: We empirically investigate the effects of fiscal policy on bank balance sheets, focusing on episodes of fiscal consolidation. To this aim, we employ a very rich data set of individual banks’ balance sheets, combined with a newly compiled data set on fiscal consolidations. We find that standard capital adequacy ratios such as the Tier-1 ratio tend to improve following episodes of fiscal consolidation. Our results suggest that this improvement results from a portfolio re-balancing from private to public debt securities which reduces the risk-weighted value of assets. In fact, if fiscal adjustment efforts are perceived as structural policy changes that improve the sustainability of public finances and, therefore, reduces credit risk, the banks’ demand for government securities increases relative to other assets. Creation-Date: 2012-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2012/wp2012-32.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-32 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Contribution of the Yen Appreciation since 2007 to the Japanese Economic Debacle Author-Name: Willem Thorbecke Keywords: Exchange rate elasticities;Exchange rate pass-through;Japan Classification-JEL:F10;F40 Abstract: The Japanese yen in 2012 remains 25 percent above its value in 2007. Exports, industrial production, and stock prices crashed after 2007 and have yet to regain their pre-crash values. This paper investigates the contribution of the yen appreciation to this economic disaster. Evidence from Johansen maximum likelihood and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimation indicates that a 25 percent appreciation reduces long run exports by 8 – 18 percent. Panel DOLS evidence reveals that the appreciation especially depressed exports in the automobile sector. Regression evidence implies that the yen appreciation caused yen export prices to fall 29 percent in the automobile sector and 22 percent in the electrical and electronics sector. Finally, evidence from estimating exchange rate exposures indicates that the yen appreciation has reduced profitability significantly in the automobile and electronics sectors. Japanese firms could mitigate some of these harmful effects by focusing on innovating rather than competing based on price in commoditized industries. Creation-Date: 2012-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2012/wp2012-31.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-31 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Are the Benefits of Export Support Durable? Evidence from Tunisia Author-Name: Olivier Cadot Author-Name: Ana M. Fernandes Author-Name: Julien Gourdon Author-Name: Aaditya Mattoo Keywords: Export promotion;firms;export margins;Tunisia;impact evaluation;propensity-score matching;matching grant Classification-JEL:F13;F14;L15;L25;O17 Abstract: This paper evaluates the effects of the FAMEX export promotion program in Tunisia on the performance of beneficiary firms. While much of the literature assesses only the short term impact of such programs, we consider also the longer term impact. Propensity-score matching difference-in-difference and weighted least squares estimates suggest that beneficiaries initially see faster export growth and greater diversification across destination markets and products. However, three years after the intervention, neither the growth rates nor the export levels of beneficiaries are significantly different from those of non-beneficiary firms. Exports of beneficiaries remain more diversified, but the diversification does not translate into lower volatility of exports. There is also no evidence that the program produced spillover benefits for non-beneficiary firms. Taken together, these results suggest that export promotion programs may in some cases induce firms to diversify without creating other durable benefits. Creation-Date: 2012-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2012/wp2012-30.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-30 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Les dessous de la dette publique japonaise Author-Name: Evelyne Dourille-Feer Keywords: Classification-JEL:H50;H60;H71;E50;E62 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2012-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2012/wp2012-29.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-29 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Invoicing Currency, Firm Size, and Hedging Author-Name: Julien Martin Author-Name: Isabelle Méjean Keywords: Invoicing currency;Financial hedging;Firm-level data Classification-JEL:F31;F41;G32 Abstract: We use the results of a survey conducted on a sample of 3,013 exporting firms located in 5 EMU countries to explore the link between the invoicing currency of exports, firm size, and hedging. About 90% of firms in the sample invoice exports in their (producer) currency. Large firms are more likely to use another currency. The aggregate use of the euro is thus 15 percentage points lower when firms are weighted by their size than for the average firm. This heterogeneity is robust to controlling for determinants of the invoicing choice stressed by the literature. We however show that large firms and firms pricing in another currency as the euro are also more likely to hedge against exchange rate risk. An IV estimation shows the causal impact of access to hedging on the choice of the invoicing currency. We find (large) firms having access to hedging being more likely to invoice in the importer’s currency. Creation-Date: 2012-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2012/wp2012-28.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-28 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Product relatedness and firm exports in China Author-Name: Sandra Poncet Author-Name: Felipe Starosta de Waldemar Keywords: Product space;density;spillovers;export performance;China Classification-JEL:F10;O11;O14;O40;O53 Abstract: We propose the first evaluation using micro-level data of the expected growth gains from the consistency of activities with local comparative advantage. Using firm level data from Chinese customs over 2000-2006, we investigate the relationship between the export performance of firms and how their products relate to local comparative advantage. Our key indicator measures the density of the links between a product and the local product space. It hence combines information on the intrinsic relatedness of a good to that on the local pattern of specialization. Our results indicate that exports grow faster for goods that have denser links with those currently produced in the firm’s locality. The density of links between products thus seems to yield export-enhancing spillovers. We however also show that this positive effect of product relatedness on export performance is mainly limited to ordinary trade activities and domestic firms. It is also stronger for more productive firms, suggesting that spillover diffusion may be hindered by insufficient absorptive capacity. Creation-Date: 2012-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2012/wp2012-27.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-27 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Export upgrading and growth: the prerequisite of domestic embeddedness Author-Name: Sandra Poncet Author-Name: Felipe Starosta de Waldemar Keywords: Economic complexity;export upgrading;FDI;processing trade;growth;China Classification-JEL:F10;O11;O14;O40;O53 Abstract: Our work contributes to the literature relating output structure and economic development by showing that growth gains from upgrading are not unconditional. Relying on data from a panel of Chinese cities, we show that the level of capabilities available for domestic firms operating in ordinary trade is an important driver of economic growth. However, no direct gains emanate from the complexity of goods produced by either processing-trade activities or foreign firms. This suggests that the sources of product upgrading matter, and that domestic embeddedness is the key for capacity building and technology adoption to be growth enhancing. Creation-Date: 2012-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2012/wp2012-26.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-26 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Time to ship during financial crises Author-Name: Nicolas Berman Author-Name: José de Sousa Author-Name: Philippe Martin Author-Name: Thierry Mayer Keywords: Time-to-ship;Financial crises;international trade Classification-JEL:F10;G01;G32 Abstract: We show that the negative impact of financial crises on trade is magnified for destinations with longer time-to-ship. A simple model where exporters react to an increase in the probability of default of importers by increasing their export price and decreasing their export volumes to destinations in crisis is consistent with this empirical finding. For longer shipping time, those effects are indeed magnified as the probability of default increases as time passes. Some exporters also decide to stop exporting to the crisis destination, the more so the longer time-to-ship. Using aggregate data from 1950 to 2009, we find that this magnification effect is robust to alternative specifications, samples and inclusion of additional controls, including distance. The firm level predictions are also broadly consistent with French exporter data from 1995 to 2005. Creation-Date: 2012-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2012/wp2012-25.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-25 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Foreign ownership wage premium: Does financial health matter? Author-Name: Maria Bas Keywords: foreign-wage premium;financial reform;developing countries;firm level data Classification-JEL:O10;O12 Abstract: Microeconometric studies have shown that foreign-owned firms pay a wage premium in developing countries. This paper investigates one of the possible channels that explain why foreign firms pay higher wages than their domestic counterparts in developing economies. Under imperfect financial markets, foreign affiliates have a greater access to funds to finance high-technology investments and to compensate their workers. The empirical analysis relies on firm-level data from Romania during the 1998-2006 period. The identification strategy exploits the financial sector reform in Romania during this period as a proxy of an exogenous shock of improvement of financial resources. Changes in the IMF financial reform index across manufacturing industries are related to the ownership status of the firm to investigate how the differential access to finance of foreign firms shapes wages. The findings suggest that a one-standarddeviation increase in the financial reform index increases firms’ wages by 7 percent for domestic firms and 11.2 percent for foreign affiliates. These results are mainly driven by foreign firms from developed countries that might benefit from connections with foreign-owned banks. These findings are stable and robust to different sensitivity tests related to the financial reform indicator, other reforms and industry trends. Creation-Date: 2012-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2012/wp2012-24.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-24 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Tax Reform and Coordination in a Currency Union Author-Name: Benjamin Carton Keywords: Fiscal Policy;Monetary Policy;DSGE;Value added tax;Monetary Union Classification-JEL:F55;C12 Abstract: We propose a two-country DSGE model to analyze short-term and long-term impact of a modification of consumption and labor tax rate in one country in a currency union. The model embodies the fact that firms differ in their pricing behavior after a VAT tax increase. Due to the common monetary policy, national tax policies have large spill-overs on the rest of the currency union. Furthermore, a fiscal devaluation is different from a nominal devaluation due to the common monetary policy. Creation-Date: 2012-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2012/wp2012-23.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-23 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Unequal Effects of Financial Development on Firms' Growth in India Author-Name: Maria Bas Author-Name: Antoine Berthou Keywords: financial development;banking reforms;firm panel data;firm growth and capital investments Classification-JEL:O160;G210 Abstract: This paper investigates the microeconomic effects of financial development on economic growth. The increased availability of credit is usually expected to improve firms’ growth due to the elimination of credit constraints. We investigate this question using a survey of Indian firms in the manufacturing industry during the period 1997-2006, in a context of rapid economic growth and underlying structural changes. We examine how changes in the level credit over GDP in Indian States affected firms’ value added and capital used for production. The baseline estimations show that financial development has boosted within-firm growth in India. Our findings also suggest that the impact of financial development on firms’ growth is heterogeneous across firms and industries. Credit expansion has a greater effect on firms that are initially larger, more productive or profitable. The effect of financial development is less heterogenous in sectors relying on external finance, where both medium-size and large firms have expanded more rapidly than small firms. These results are robust to various specifications that allow to control for other reforms taking place simultaneously, or for potential reverse causality. Creation-Date: 2012-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2012/wp2012-22.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-22 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Pegging emerging currencies in the face of dollar swings Author-Name: Virginie Coudert Author-Name: Cécile Couharde Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Keywords: real exchange rates;anchor currency;rupture of pegs;smooth transition regression models Classification-JEL:F31;F33;C22 Abstract: The aim of this paper is to study ruptures of exchange-rate pegs by focusing on the fluctuations of the anchor currency. We test for the hypothesis that currencies linked to the USD are more likely to loosen their peg when the USD is appreciating, while sticking to it otherwise. To this end, we estimate smooth-transition regression models for a sample of 28 emerging currencies over the 1994-2011 period. Our findings show that while the real effective exchange rates of most of these countries tend to co-move with that of the USD in times of depreciation, this relationship is frequently reversed when the US currency appreciates over a certain threshold. Such nonlinear effects are especially at stake in Asia where growth is export-oriented. Creation-Date: 2012-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2012/wp2012-21.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-21 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: On the links between stock and commodity markets' volatility Author-Name: Anna Creti Author-Name: Marc Joëts Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Keywords: commodities;stock market;financial crisis;volatility;correlations;DCC-GARCH Classification-JEL:C22;G01;G10;Q4 Abstract: This paper investigates the links between price returns for 25 commodities and stocks over the period from January 2001 to November 2011, by paying a particular attention to energy raw materials. Relying on the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) GARCH methodology, we show that the correlations between commodity and stock markets evolve through time and are highly volatile, particularly since the 2007-2008 financial crisis. The latter has played a key role, emphasizing the links between commodity and stock markets, and underlining the financialization of commodity markets. At the idiosyncratic level, a speculation phenomenon is highlighted for oil, coffee and cocoa, while the safe-haven role of gold is evidenced. Creation-Date: 2012-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2012/wp2012-20.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: European Export Performance Author-Name: Angela Cheptea Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Soledad Zignago Keywords: International Trade;Export Performance;Competitiveness;Market Shares;Shift-Share;European Union Classification-JEL:F12;F15 Abstract: Competitiveness has come to the forefront of the policy debate within the European Union, focusing on price competitiveness and intra-EU imbalances. But how to measure competitiveness properly, beyond price or cost competitiveness, remains an open methodological issue; and how can we explain the resilience of producers located in the EU to the competition of emerging economies? We analyze the redistribution of world market shares at the level of the product variety, as countries no longer specialize in sectors or even products, but in varieties of the same product, sold at di fferent prices. We decompose changes in market shares into structural e ffects (geographical and sectoral) and a pure performance e ffect. Our method is based on an econometric shift-share decomposition and we regard the EU-27 as an integrated economy, excluding intra-EU trade. Revisiting the competitiveness issue in such a perspective sheds new light on the ongoing debate. From 1995 to 2009 the EU-27 withstood the competition from emerging countries better than the US and Japan. The EU market shares in the upper price range of the market proved quite resilient, by combining good performance and favorable structure e ffects, unlike the US and Japan. Finally, while most developed countries lose market shares in high-technology products to developing countries, the EU is slightly gaining, bene fiting of a favorable structure e ffect. Creation-Date: 2012-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2012/wp2012-19.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Few Leading the Many: Foreign Affiliates and Business Cycle Comovement Author-Name: Jörn Kleinert Author-Name: Julien Martin Author-Name: Farid Toubal Keywords: Granularity;Business Cycles;Multinational Firms;Intra-firm Trade Classification-JEL:F23;F12;F4;F41 Abstract: This paper uses micro-data on balance sheets, trade, and the nationality of ownership of firms in France to investigate the effect of foreign multinationals on business cycle comovement. We first show that foreign affiliates, which represent a tiny fraction of all firms, are responsible for a high share of employment, value added, and trade both at the national and at the regional levels. We also show that the distribution of foreign affiliates across regions differs with the nationality of the parent. We then show that foreign affiliates increase the comovement of activities between their region of location and their country of ownership. We find that intra-firm trade in intermediate inputs is a significant channel of influence of business cycle comovement. These findings suggest that a non-negligible part of business cycle comovement is driven by a few multinational companies, and that the international transmission of shocks is partly due to linkages between affiliates and their foreign parents. Creation-Date: 2012-08 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2012/wp2012-18.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Native language, spoken language, translation and trade Author-Name: Jacques Melitz Author-Name: Farid Toubal Keywords: Language;Bilateral Trade;Gravity Models Classification-JEL:F10;F40 Abstract: We construct new series for common native language and common spoken language for 195 countries, which we use together with series for common official language and linguistic proximity in order to draw inferences about (1) the aggregate impact of all linguistic factors on bilateral trade, (2) whether the linguistic influences come from ethnicity and trust or ease of communication, and (3) in so far they come from ease of communication, to what extent translation and interpreters play a role. The results show that the impact of linguistic factors, all together, is at least twice as great as the usual dummy variable for common language, resting on official language, would say. In addition, ease of communication is far more important than ethnicity and trust. Further, so far as ease of communication is at work, translation and interpreters are extremely important. Finally, ethnicity and trust come into play largely because of immigrants and their influence is otherwise difficult to detect. Creation-Date: 2012-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2012/wp2012-17.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Assessing the price-raising effect of non-tariff measures in Africa Author-Name: Olivier Cadot Author-Name: Julien Gourdon Keywords: Ad-valorem equivalent;Price-raising impact of non tariff measures;Africa Classification-JEL:F10;F11;F13;O55 Abstract: In spite of widespread tariff reductions, intra-African borders remain thick. Regional trade is inhibited by inadequate transportation infrastructure, but also by various government-imposed measures. This paper combines price data from the World Bank’s International Comparison Project (ICP) with the new TRAINS database on non-tariff measures (NTMs) to estimate their effect on consumer prices for selected consumption products. Results based on panel regressions on 1260 country-product pairs suggest that, after controlling for tariffs, systematic cross-country cost-of-living differences, and product-specific unobservables, SPS measures contribute to raise the price of African foodstuffs by 14%. At the product level, rice and other cereals, some types of meat (e.g. poultry), and edible oils tend to fetch high AVEs. Combining our estimates with data on household expenditure patterns from Kenya’s household survey, we show that the effect is regressive, raising the cost of living by 9% for poor households. Creation-Date: 2012-08 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2012/wp2012-16.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: International Migration and Trade Agreements: the new role of PTAs Author-Name: Gianluca Orefice Keywords: International Migration;Trade Policy;Preferential Trade Agreements Classification-JEL:F22;F13;F53;F16 Abstract: This paper investigates empirically the role of Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) as determinants of migration inflows for 29 OECD countries in the period 1998-2008. By increasing information about signatory countries, PTAs are expected to drive migration flows towards member countries. Building on the empirical literature on the determinants of migration, I estimate a modified gravity model on migration flows providing evidence of a strong positive effect of PTAs on bilateral migration flows. I also consider the content of PTAs as a further determinant of migration, finding that visa-and-asylum and labour market related provisions, when included in PTAs, stimulate bilateral migration flows. Finally, by comparing the average effects of PTAs on migration flows and on trade, I show that PTAs stimulate bilateral migration flows more than trade in final goods. PTAs might be used by government to increase inflows of immigrant workers in the case of labour shortages or population ageing. Creation-Date: 2012-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2012/wp2012-15.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Scanning the Ups and Downs of China’s Trade Imbalances Author-Name: Françoise Lemoine Author-Name: Deniz Ünal Keywords: China;Growth model;FDI;Foreign trade;Domestic market Classification-JEL:F2;F1;F15;F23;O53 Abstract: Since 2007 China has considerably reduced its external global imbalances. Its bilateral trade surpluses with the EU and the US have persisted because the rise of China’s import demand has mainly benefited its Asian neighbors and the resource rich countries. The rapid growth of China’s imports of consumption goods from advanced economies, especially from Europe, suggests that they would benefit from a reorientation of China’s domestic demand towards household consumption. Creation-Date: 2012-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2012/wp2012-14.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Revisiting the theory of optimum currency areas: Is the CFA franc zone sustainable? Author-Name: Cécile Couharde Author-Name: Issiaka Coulibaly Author-Name: David Guerreiro Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Keywords: Equilibrium exchange rates;CFA zone;Optimum Currency Areas;currency union sustainability Classification-JEL:F31;F33;C23 Abstract: This paper aims at explaining why the CFA countries have successfully maintained a currency union for several decades, despite failing to meet many of optimum currency area criteria. We suggest that the CFA zone, while not optimal, has been at least sustainable. We test this sustainability hypothesis by relying on the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) approach. In particular, we assess and compare the convergence process of real exchange rates towards equilibrium for the CFA zone countries and a sample of other sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Our findings evidence that internal and external balances have been fostered and adjustments facilitated in the CFA zone as a whole?compared to other SSA countries?as well as in each of its ember countries. Creation-Date: 2012-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2012/wp2012-13.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Macroeconomic transmission of eurozone shocks to emerging economies Author-Name: Bilge Erten Keywords: Eurozone recession;transmission of shocks;Bayesian vector autoregression;emerging economies; growth spillovers Classification-JEL:F43;F44;F47 Abstract: This paper analyzes the robustness of emerging economies growth performance to a number of external demand shocks using a Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model with informative priors on the steady state. Using quarterly data from 1993 to 2011 for global financial conditions and external demand variables, it examines the magnitude of the shocks from a deepening Eurozone recession on China, emerging Asia, and emerging Latin America, and the factors that influence the transmission of these shocks. It finds that more than fifty percent of the variation in real GDP growth of Latin American emerging economies is explained by external factors, while it is slightly less than fifty percent for emerging Asia and China. Conditional forecasts of different scenarios indicate that a deepening of the Eurozone recession would create a severe and persistent contraction for emerging economies, depending on the response of the U.S. growth to this shock. Finally, forecasts suggest that a sharp slowdown in China’s growth would have a significant negative impact on emerging economies’ growth, and that the Latin American countries would be more severely hit than the Asian ones. Creation-Date: 2012-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2012/wp2012-12.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The fiscal impact of immigration in France: a generational accounting approach Author-Name: Xavier Chojnicki Keywords: Fiscal policy;International migration;National budget Classification-JEL:E62;F22;H6 Abstract: The objective of this study is to use both static and dynamic frameworks to compare the benefits that immigrants draw from the public system with their contributions through the taxes that they pay. The main conclusion of this article is that the impact of immigration on welfare systems is weak. Thus, if we compare, on a given date, immigrants’ global contribution to the public administration budget with the volume of transfers they receive, immigrants appear to be relatively favored by the redistribution system. At the same time, even if immigrants seem to pay less taxes and receive more transfers than natives, the difference in distribution between the two populations, with a higher concentration of immigrants in the active age groups and a sparser concentration among the net beneficiaries of the social transfer system, leads to a slightly positive long-term impact of immigration on public finances. However, the impact of immigration remains very slight compared to the global effort that would have to be undertaken to reduce budgetary imbalances. Creation-Date: 2012-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2012/wp2012-11.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: MAcMap-HS6 2007, an exhaustive and consistent measure of applied protection in 2007 Author-Name: Houssein Guimbard Author-Name: Sébastien Jean Author-Name: Mondher Mimouni Author-Name: Xavier Pichot Keywords: PROTECTION;TARIFFS;TRADE POLICY;DATABASE Classification-JEL:F02;F13;F15;F18 Abstract: The third version of the MAcMap-HS6 database, built as a result of a joint effort of CEPII (Centre d'Études Prospectives et d’Informations Internationales, Paris) and ITC (International Trade Centre, Geneva), based on ITC’s MAcMap raw data, proposes an exhaustive and consistent measure of applied, preferential tariff protection in 2007. The methodology, similar to the one used for previous versions, relies on reference groups of countries to limit the endogeneity bias faced when computing ad valorem equivalents of tariff protection, and when computing averages at aggregate levels. The world average applied protection level in 2007 is estimated to be 4.4%. Compared to 2004, this is a decline by nearly 0.7 percentage point, mainly due to unilateral liberalizations and to new preferential trade agreements. The decline in the ad valorem equivalent of specific tariffs of some agricultural products, linked to the surge in world prices, lowers the average protection. In the opposite way, the increasing share of developing countries, where protection is higher, tend to raise the world average. Creation-Date: 2012-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2012/wp2012-10.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Regional Integration and Natural Resources: who benefits? Evidence from MENA Author-Name: Céline Carrère Author-Name: Julien Gourdon Author-Name: Marcelo Olarreaga Keywords: Regionalism;MENA;PAFTA;OIL Classification-JEL:F10;F11 Abstract: This paper is built on Venables (2011) theoretical predictions which show that gains from regional integration are unevenly distributed between resource rich and poor countries. We explore the effects of different integration schemes in Middle East and North Africa. Results suggest that within Pan Arab Free Trade Agreement (PAFTA), there is significant trade creation for resource poor countries associated with regional integration, and no evidence of trade diversion. In resource rich countries, however, there is evidence of pure trade diversion in both resource-rich/labor-abundant countries and resource-rich/labor-importing countries. This underscores the idea that regional integration can help to spread benefits of unevenly distributed resource wealth among the region’s economies. Creation-Date: 2012-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2012/wp2012-09.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-09 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: A Foreign Direct Investment database for global CGE models Author-Name: Christophe Gouel Author-Name: Houssein Guimbard Author-Name: David Laborde Keywords: CGEM;FDI;Databases Classification-JEL:C68;C82;F21 Abstract: We describe the methodology used to construct a global database of foreign direct investments in three dimensions (investor country, host country and sector) for 2004. Based on Eurostat data, we estimate theoretical investments for all countries. Then we constrain our estimates subject to existing data with lower dimensions (1 or 2) during the balancing of the matrix, using a quadratic optimization. This database is intended for use for CGE modeling studies. Creation-Date: 2012-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2012/wp2012-08.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-08 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: On currency misalignments within the euro area Author-Name: Virginie Coudert Author-Name: Cécile Couharde Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Keywords: EURO AREA;REAL EQUILIBRIUM EXCHANGE RATES;MISALIGNMENTS;PANEL COINTEGRATION Classification-JEL:F31;C23 Abstract: Although nominal parities have been completely pegged within the euro area since the launch of the single currency, real effective exchange rates have continued to vary under the effect of inflation disparities, exhibiting a strong appreciation in the peripheral countries. In this paper, we assess real exchange rate misalignments for euro area countries by using a Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) approach on the period 1980-2010. The results show that the peripheral member countries have been suffering from increasingly overvalued exchange rates since the mid-2000s, as their real appreciation has not stemmed from improving fundamentals in terms of productivity or external position. In addition, currency misalignments have been increased on average for all euro area countries since the monetary union, while becoming more persistent. More worryingly, our findings highlight different patterns across members, as misalignments have been larger and more persistent in peripheral countries than in core countries. Creation-Date: 2012-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2012/wp2012-07.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-07 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: How frequently firms export? Evidence from France Author-Name: Gábor Békés Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Balázs Muraközy Author-Name: Vincent Vicard Keywords: GRAVITY MODEL;transport costs;frequency of trade;Baumol-Tobin model;France;customs data Classification-JEL:F12;F15;D40;F12;R40 Abstract: This paper proposes studying export frequency as an additional margin of international trade. While extensive margins of products and destination define the scope of firm’s export, export shipment frequency is determined by sale method choice and cost structure of the trade technology. We define export shipment frequency as the per annum number of shipments of a given product, by a firm to a given destination. In order to more deeply understand the trade cost structure and sale methods, we estimate gravity models on export frequency and other margins of trade using monthly firm-product-destination level export data from France. We show that in key predictions of the model are validated. During the recent trade collapse, we also find a great deal of stability in shipment frequency with a modest adjustment to declining GDP. Creation-Date: 2012-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2012/wp2012-06.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-06 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Fiscal sustainability in the presence of systemic banks: the case of EU countries Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Guillaume Roussellet Keywords: Fiscal sustainability;systemic banking risk;off-balance sheet liabilities Classification-JEL:H21;H23;J41 Abstract: We provide a first attempt to include off-balance sheet, implicit insurance to SIFIs into a consistent assessment of fiscal sustainability, for 27 countries of the European Union. We first calculate tax gaps à la Blanchard (1990) and Blanchard et al. (1990). We then introduce two alternative measures of implicit off-balance sheet liabilities related to the risk of a systemic bank crisis. The first one relies of microeconomic data at the bank level. The second one relies on econometric estimations of the probability and the cost of a systemic banking crisis, based on historical data. The former approach tends to maximize the fiscal cost of systemic banking crises, whereas the latter one tends to minimize it. Hence we believe that the combined use of these two methodologies helps to gauge the range of fiscal risk. Creation-Date: 2012-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2012/wp2012-05.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Low-Wage Countries’ Competition, Reallocation Across Firms and the Quality Content of Exports Author-Name: Julien Martin Author-Name: Isabelle Méjean Keywords: Firm-Level Data;Quality Heterogeneity;Low-Wage Countries’ Competition;Within-product specialization Classification-JEL:F12;F14 Abstract: We consider the impact of low-wage countries’ competition on the quality content of high-wage countries’ exports. We develop a new method that uses firm-level data to measure quality changes in sectoral exports. Over 1995-2005, we measure a 11% increase in the mean quality of France’s aggregate exports. Quality upgrading is driven by a reallocation of demand in favor of higher quality producers. The phenomenon is significantly more pronounced in markets where the penetration of developing countries has increased while it goes the opposite direction where firms face increased competitive pressures from high-wage countries. These results are consistent with within-product specialization along the vertical dimension. They suggest that, over the period, France has specialized in the production of higher quality goods. In our data, around one fifth of the measured quality improvement in France’s aggregate exports is attributable to low-wage countries’ competition. Creation-Date: 2012-02 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2012/wp2012-04.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Great Shift: Macroeconomic projections for the world economy at the 2050 horizon Author-Name: Jean Fouré Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Keywords: GDP projections;long run;global economy Classification-JEL:E23;E27;F02;F47 Abstract: We present growth scenarios for 147 countries to 2050, based on MaGE (Macroeconometrics of the Global Economy), a three-factor production function that includes capital, labour and energy. We improve on the literature by accounting for the energy constraint through dynamic modelling of energy productivity, and departing from the assumptions of either a closed economy or full capital mobility by applying a Feldstein-Horioka-type relationship between savings and investment rates. Our results suggest that, accounting for relative price variations, China could account for 33% of the world economy in 2050, which would be much more than the United States (9%), India (8%), the European Union (12%) and Japan (5%). They suggest also that China would overtake the United States around 2020 (2040 at constant relative prices). However, in terms of standards of living, measured through GDP per capita in purchasing power parity, China would still lag 10 percent behind the United States at the 2050 horizon. Creation-Date: 2012-02 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2012/wp2012-03.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Discriminatory Effect of Domestic Regulations on International Services Trade Author-Name: Matthieu Crozet Author-Name: Emmanuel Milet Author-Name: Daniel Mirza Keywords: Trade in services;Domestic Regulations;Firm Heterogeneity Classification-JEL:F1;L8 Abstract: In order to develop trade in services, the GATS aims to eliminate progressively discriminatory regulations, which apply to foreign suppliers. This paper looks instead at the trade effect of domestic regulations, which apply to all firms indifferently and do not intend to exclude imports. We propose a theory-based empirical test to determine whether or not these domestic regulations affect more foreign suppliers than local ones, through the sign of their effect on the trade margins. We then apply it on French firm-level exports to OECD countries in professional services. Our econometric results show that domestic regulations in the importing markets do matter significantly for trade in services. They reduce both the decision to export and individual exports. A 10% percent increase in regulations reduces services export values by more than 7% and the probability of exporting with respect to that of not exporting by 2.8%. This result tends to prove that domestic regulations are discriminatory de facto even if they are not de jure. Creation-Date: 2012-01 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2012/wp2012-02.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Optimal Food Price Stabilization in a Small Open Developing Country Author-Name: Christophe Gouel Author-Name: Sébastien Jean Keywords: Food security;incomplete markets;storage;trade policy;export restrictions Classification-JEL:D52;F13;Q11;Q17;Q18 Abstract: This paper analyzes food price stabilization policies in a small, open, developing country. Without public intervention, price dynamics are driven by domestic productive shocks and international prices. Trade and/or storage policies are optimally designed to increase welfare, in a context where consumers are risk-averse and markets are incomplete. An optimal storage policy on its own is detrimental to consumers, since its stabilizing benefits leak into the world market. In contrast, optimal combination of storage and trade policies results in a powerful stabilization of domestic food prices. Such a policy mix includes export restrictions, which are harmful to export partners, but to refrain from using them is costly and entails substantial transfers from consumers to producers. Creation-Date: 2012-01 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2012/wp2012-01.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Export Dynamics and Sales at Home Author-Name: Nicolas Berman Author-Name: Antoine Berthou Author-Name: Jérôme Héricourt Keywords: Export dynamics;domestic sales;markets;liquidity Classification-JEL:F10;F44;L20 Abstract: How do firms’ sales interact across markets? Are foreign and domestic sales complements or substitutes? Using a large French firm-level database that combines balance-sheet and product-destination specific export information over the period 1995-2001, we study the interconnections between exports and domestic sales. We identify exogenous shocks that affect the firms’ demand on foreign markets to instrument yearly variations in exports. We use alternatively as instruments product-destination specific imports or tariffs changes, and large foreign shocks such as financial crises or civil wars. Our results show that exogenous variations in foreign sales are positively associated with domestic sales, even after controlling for changes in domestic demand. A 10% exogenous increase in exports generates a 1.5 to 3% increase in domestic sales in the short-term. This result is robust to various estimation techniques, instruments, controls, and sub-samples. It is also supported by the natural experiment of the Asian crisis in the late 1990’s. We discuss various channels that may explain this complementarity. Creation-Date: 2011-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2011/wp2011-33.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-33 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Entry on difficult export markets by Chinese domestic firms: the role of foreign export spillovers Author-Name: Florian Mayneris Author-Name: Sandra Poncet Keywords: EXPORT SPILLOVERS;CHINA;AGGLOMERATION Classification-JEL:F1;R12 Abstract: In this study, we explore how the intensity of foreign export spillovers in China varies depending on the difficulty of entry on export markets. We rely on different proxies to define what a “difficult” country is and we find that the presence of surrounding foreign exporting firms helps domestic ones to start exporting, especially when destination countries are difficult. While on average exposure to foreign exporters is associated with a 10% increase of the probability that domestic firms from the same province start exporting the year after, the figure is around 50% higher when the targeted destination country is identified as difficult. Our results are consistent with the idea that exposure to foreign exporters helps to reduce the fixed cost of creating new trade linkages. Our finding hence suggests that the increasing presence of foreign exporting firms in China might contribute to the diversification of Chinese domestic firms? exports towards more difficult and previously inaccessible destinations. Creation-Date: 2011-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2011/wp2011-32.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-32 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: French Firms at the Conquest of Asian Markets: The Role of Export Spillovers Author-Name: Florian Mayneris Author-Name: Sandra Poncet Keywords: Export spillovers;agglomeration;market entry barriers Classification-JEL:F10;r12 Abstract: In this study, we explore the role of export spillovers on the capacity of French firms to conquer Asian markets. We confirm, in the context of France, previous results emphasizing the positive impact of surrounding exporters on the probability that a firm starts exporting a given product to a given country. We find that export spillovers are more important for export starts to Asia than for export starts to other countries. Moreover, for the specific Asian destinations, we find evidence of a heterogeneous effect of export spillovers. The presence of surrounding exporting firms appears especially beneficial to small and less productive firms, and more intense for export starts to Asian countries characterized by low GDP per capita and tough administrative procedures on imports. Hence, export spillovers may help small firms to enter on the most difficult Asian markets. Creation-Date: 2011-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2011/wp2011-31.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-31 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Environmental policy and trade performance: Evidence from China Author-Name: Laura Hering Author-Name: Sandra Poncet Keywords: Export performance;Spillovers Classification-JEL:F1 Abstract: This paper aims at assessing the impact of environmental regulations on the export activity of firms in China. The environmental policy we study is the so- called Two Control Zones (TCZ) policy, which has been implemented in 1998 in China. The aim of this policy was to reduce the sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions in targeted cities with particularly high air pollution. We use a data set of 265 Chinese cities for the years 1997 to 2003, and exploit variations across time, sectors and firm types to extract the causal effect of the policy on firms’ performance. We indeed expect the TCZ policy to have a larger impact the heavier the pollution content of the activity and the lower the political status of the firm. In line with the political pecking order of firms that exists in China, we expect the impact of the environmental policy to be mitigated by state ownership. Our results are in line with our expectations and suggest that the TCZ policy has been effective. We find that State-owned firms are less intensively affected and thus able to export relatively more, especially in energy intensive sectors. By contrast, we see a relative decline in foreign and private firms’ exports; the more the energy-use of the sector the larger the decline. Creation-Date: 2011-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2011/wp2011-30.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-30 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Immigration, unemployment and GDP in the host country: Bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis on OECD countries Author-Name: Ekrame Boubtane Author-Name: Dramane Coulibaly Author-Name: Christophe Rault Keywords: Immigration;GROWTH;unemployment;Granger causality Classification-JEL:E20;F22;J61 Abstract: This paper examines the causality relationship between immigration, Unemployment and economic growth of the host country. We employ the panel Granger causality testing approach of Kónya (2006) that is based on SUR systems and Wald tests with country specific bootstrap critical values. This approach does not assume that the panel is homogeneous and it allows to detect for how many and for which countries of the panel there exists one-way Granger-causality, two-way Granger-causality or no Granger-causality, and takes into account for possible contemporaneous dependence across countries. Using annual data over the period 1980-2005 for 22 OECD countries, we find that, only in Portugal, unemployment negatively causes immigration, while in any country, immigration does not cause unemployment. On the other hand, our results show that, in four countries (France, Iceland, Norway and United Kingdom), growth positively causes immigration, while in any country, immigration does not cause growth. Creation-Date: 2011-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2011/wp2011-29.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-29 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Index Trading and Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Panel Granger Causality Analysis Author-Name: Gunther Capelle-Blancard Author-Name: Dramane Coulibaly Keywords: Speculation;financialization;food crisis;soft commodities;index funds;panel Granger causality Classification-JEL:G10;Q10 Abstract: This paper investigates the causality between prices and index-based trading activity for twelve grain, livestock, and other soft commodity futures markets. We use panel Granger causality estimations based on SUR systems and Wald tests with market-specific bootstrap critical values. This approach allows to test for causality on each market by accounting for the possible contemporaneous dependence across markets. Our results confirm that there is no causality between index-based positions and commodity futures prices. Creation-Date: 2011-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2011/wp2011-28.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-28 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Impossible Trinity Revised: An Application to China Author-Name: Benjamin Carton Keywords: Impossible Trinity;Monetary Policy;CHINA Classification-JEL:F32;F33 Abstract: In a fixed exchange-rate regime, monetary policy is not devoted to internal equilibrium, such that the Taylor principle is no more the condition to insure the determinacy of the dynamic. Monetary policy is in charge of stabilizing the fixed-exchange rate regime in the long run, i.e. to avoid an excessive accumulation of foreign reserves, or their depletion. For this purpose, the monetary policy rule has to include the evolution of the net foreign asset position. Stabilizing the fixed exchange-rate regime entrenches the ability of monetary policy to influence the internal equilibrium, despite sizable restrictions on capital mobility. This translates into a restriction on implementable monetary-policy rules. Ill-designed monetary-policy rules generates long-lasting fluctuations of the trade balance and the real exchange rate. Creation-Date: 2011-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2011/wp2011-27.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-27 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Isolating the Network Effect of Immigrants on Trade Author-Name: Mariya Aleksynska Author-Name: Giovanni Peri Keywords: MIGRATION;INTERNATIONAL TRADE;BUSINESS NETWORKS;DIFFERENTIATED GOODS Classification-JEL:f14;f16;f22 Abstract: Within the migration-trade nexus literature, this paper proposes a more carefully defined measure of migration business networks, and quantifies its impact on bilateral trade. Controlling for the overall bilateral stock of migrants, the share of migrants employed in managerial/business-related occupations has a strong additional effect on trade, and especially on exports. Those immigrants should be the ones directly involved in the diffusion of relevant information for trading companies. Their presence, more than the presence of immigrants overall, or of highly educated immigrants, is found to enhance trade. When we control for the presence of highly educated immigrants, the share of immigrants in business network occupations shows a particularly large effect on trade in differentiated goods. Specifically, we find that highly educated individuals in business-related occupations are those enhancing export by the largest margin. Business network effect is particularly important for culturally different countries, such as the ones with different legal origin. Creation-Date: 2011-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2011/wp2011-26.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-26 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Notes on CEPII’s distances measures: The GeoDist database Author-Name: Thierry Mayer Author-Name: Soledad Zignago Keywords: DISTANCES;INTERNATIONAL TRADE;DATABASES;GRAVITY MODEL;TRADE COSTS;BORDER EFFECTS Classification-JEL:F10;F12;F13;F14;F15 Abstract: GeoDist makes available the exhaustive set of gravity variables used in Mayer and Zignago (2005). GeoDist provides several geographical variables, in particular bilateral distances measured using citylevel data to assess the geographic distribution of population inside each nation. We have calculated different measures of bilateral distances available for most countries across the world (225 countries in the current version of the database). For most of them, different calculations of “intra-national distances” are also available. The GeoDist webpage provides two distinct files: a country-specific one (geo_cepii)and a dyadic one (dist_cepii) including a set of different distance and common dummy variables used in gravity equations to identify particular links between countries such as colonial past, common languages, contiguity. We try to improve upon the existing similar datasets in terms of geographical coverage, quality of measurement and number of variables provided. Creation-Date: 2011-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2011/wp2011-25.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-25 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Estimations of Tariff Equivalents for the Services Sectors Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Amélie Guillin Author-Name: Cristina Mitaritonna Keywords: MARKET ACCESS;TARIFFS;SERVICES;INTERNATIONAL TRADE Classification-JEL:F13 Abstract: Methodological issues arising from the estimation of tariff equivalents of barriers to services trade are very relevant for policy. These equivalents are used extensively to compute welfare gains and resource reallocations associated with partial liberalization of the sector; any measurement errors will strongly affect the estimated gains. Using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database, we rely on socalled quantity based methods to derive tariff equivalents from a gravity equation estimated at sectoral level for 9 services sectors and 65 countries. We also estimate trade equations for services using cross section data, and improve on the methodology of Park (2002). We investigate whether relying on cross section rather than panel data leads to differences in the estimated equivalents. Finally, we compare the estimations based on reconstructed and actual data. We conclude that although use of partially reconstructed data (such as GTAP) affects the results, the equivalents obtained are good representations of the magnitude of protection for services in the various countries analyzed, although with larger deviations for developing economies. Creation-Date: 2011-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2011/wp2011-24.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-24 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Economic Impact of Potential Outcome of the DDA Author-Name: Yvan Decreux Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Keywords: DOHA;Doha Development Round;CGEM;Trade facilitation;INTERNATIONAL TRADE Classification-JEL:F13;F17 Abstract: Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the world economy (MIRAGE), we simulate the impacts of the most recent drafts circulated in the multilateral trade negotiations arena, augmented by a modest outcome of the negotiation in services. The liberalisation of tariffs is implemented at the product level in order to take into account exceptions, flexibilities as well as the non-linear design of the formulas. A reduction in domestic support and the phasing out of export subsidies are taken into account. We integrate dynamic gains up to 2025. We observe a $US70bn world Gross Domestic Product (GDP) long run gain when agriculture and industry are liberalised, a $US85bn gain when a 3% reduction in protection for services is added to certain services sectors. Calculation of the gains associated with trade facilitation suggests roughly a doubling of the expected gains ($US152bn); port efficiency adds another $US35bn. In total, the $US187bn gains identified here in the scenario combining liberalisation in trade in goods and services with trade facilitation and port efficiency, would accumulate to world GDP every year in the medium term, compared to the situation without agreement. Recent proposals for sectoral initiatives would add a further $US15bn on top of these gains. Creation-Date: 2011-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2011/wp2011-23.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-23 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: More Bankers, More Growth? Evidence from OECD Countries Author-Name: Gunther Capelle-Blancard Author-Name: Claire Labonne Keywords: Finance-growth nexus;optimal size of the financial sector;financial intermediation;bank efficiency;system and difference GMM;BANKING SYSTEM;GROWTH Classification-JEL:G20 Abstract: In this paper, we reexamine empirically the finance/growth nexus. We argue that financial deepening should not only be assessed with familiar measures of financial activities outputs (e.g. credit volume), but also through its inputs (e.g. the relative number of employees in the financial industry) or the efficiency of the financial intermediation process (measured in this paper by the ratio credit volume to number of employees). Overall, our study confirms the absence of a positive relationship between financial deepening and economic growth for OECD countries over the last forty years. Creation-Date: 2011-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2011/wp2011-22.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-22 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: EMU, EU, Market Integration and Consumption Smoothing Author-Name: Atanas Christev Author-Name: Jacques Melitz Keywords: Capital market integration;consumption smoothing;currency union;European Monetary Union;European Union Classification-JEL:F36;F41;E00;G10 Abstract: We take a new approach to the study of the impact of EMU on consumption smoothing that allows a broader range of channels to enter into view. It is no longer simply a question of the smoothing of asymmetric output shocks via cross-country holdings of property and claims, as is often the case. Consequently, we find that while EMU tends to smooth consumption, it is not through cross-country property and claims. Rather it comes through the promotion of the tradability of capital: specifically, the encouragement of price competition, contestable home markets, ability to borrow and buy insurance at home, and through an increase in the harmonization of regulations. Some of the consumption smoothing may also depend on EU membership rather than EMU as such but EMU adds to it. As a fundamental part of the analysis, the paper uses a new index of currency union which focuses on the ratio of trade with other countries sharing the same currency relative to total foreign trade. Creation-Date: 2011-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2011/wp2011-21.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-21 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Real-Time Data and Fiscal Policy Analysis: a Survey of the Literature Author-Name: Jacopo Cimadomo Keywords: Fiscal policy;real-time data;data revisions;cyclical sensitivity Classification-JEL:E62;H60;H68 Abstract: This paper surveys the empirical research on fiscal policy analysis based on real-time data. This literature can be broadly divided in three groups that focus on: (1) the statistical properties of Revisions in fiscal data; (2) the political and institutional determinants of projection errors by governments and (3) the reaction of fiscal policies to the business cycle. It emerges that, first, fiscal data revisions are large and initial releases are biased estimates of final values. Second, the presence of strong fiscal rules and institutions leads to relatively more accurate releases of fiscal data and small deviations of fiscal outcomes from government plans. Third, the cyclical stance of fiscal policies is estimated to be more ‘countercyclical’ when real-time data are used instead of ex-post data. Finally, more work is needed for the development of real-time datasets for fiscal policy analysis. In particular, a comprehensive real-time dataset including fiscal variables for industrialized (and possibly developing) countries, published and maintained by central banks or other institutions, is still missing. Creation-Date: 2011-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2011/wp2011-20.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: On the Inclusion of the Chinese Renminbi in the SDR Basket Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Damien Capelle Keywords: SDR;renminbi;IMS;Foreign exchange volatility;China Classification-JEL:f31;f33 Abstract: We study the impact of a broadening of the SDR basket to the Chinese currency on the composition and volatility of the basket. Although, in the past, RMB inclusion would have had almost negligible impact due to its limited weight, a much more significant impact can be expected in the next decades, and more so if the Chinese currency is pegged to the US dollar. If the objective is to reinforce the attractiveness of the SDR as a unit of account and a store of value through more stability, then a broadening of the SDR to the RMB could be appropriate, provided some flexibility is introduced in the Chinese exchange-rate regime. This issue of flexibility is de facto more important than that of “free usability” to make the SDR more stable, at least in the short and medium run. Creation-Date: 2011-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2011/wp2011-19.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Unilateral trade reform, Market Access and Foreign Competition: the Patterns of Multi-Product Exporters Author-Name: Maria Bas Author-Name: Pamela Bombarda Keywords: MARKET ACCESS;Unilateral trade liberalization;foreign competition;export margins;Multi-product exporters Classification-JEL:f12;f13;l11 Abstract: Recent findings in international trade using detailed firm level surveys emphasize the microeconomic effects of trade liberalization episodes. A unilateral trade reform has two opposite effects on firms’ export patterns: (i) expansion of export opportunities for foreign firms exporting to that destination and (ii) intensification of foreign competition in the liberalized market. The main contribution of this paper is to investigate this trade-off between market access growth and tougher competitive pressures in the export market. Using detailed firm-product-destination data for French firms (1999-2005), we explore how the margins of French exports react to unilateral trade liberalization of Asian countries, with particular attention given to China. We exploit the exogenous variation in Chinese import tariff cuts relative to tariff changes in other Asian countries. Our findings suggest that French firms expanded the range of their exported products and the volume of exports to China relative to other Asian destinations after Chinese tariff liberalization. These results are robust when we explicitly account for foreign competition of third countries in the liberalized market. Quantitatively, a 7 percent declined of Chinese tariff on average during the period 1999-2005, results in almost 6 log points expansion of a firm’s export product scope and 14 log points of firms’ export sales. Creation-Date: 2011-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2011/wp2011-18.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The “Forward Premium Puzzle” and the Sovereign Default Risk Author-Name: Virginie Coudert Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Keywords: Carry trades;Forward premium;UIP puzzle;Default risk;Smooth transition regression models Classification-JEL:g15;g01;c30 Abstract: Carry-trade strategies which consist of buying forward high-yield currencies tend to generate positive excess returns during long periods of time. Here, we aim at explaining this puzzle by the default risk, which is frequently taken on by investing in high-yield currencies. We empirically test for this hypothesis on a sample of 18 emerging currencies over the period from June 2005 to September 2010, the default risk being proxied by the sovereign credit default swap spread. Relying on smooth transition regression models, we show that default risk fuels the carry-trade gains during periods of upbeat financial markets, and worsens the losses in bear markets. We then introduce the default risk into the “Fama regression” linking the exchange-rate depreciation to the interest-rate differential. The “forward bias”, usually evidenced by a coefficient smaller than unity in this regression, is somewhat alleviated, as the default risk partially explains the excess return. Creation-Date: 2011-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2011/wp2011-17.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Occupation-Education Mismatch of Immigrant Workers in Europe: Context and Policies Author-Name: Mariya Aleksynska Author-Name: Ahmed Tritah Keywords: Immigration;Occupational mismatch;Overeducation;ORU realized matches;Migration policies Classification-JEL:I21;J24;J61;F22 Abstract: This paper analyses occupational matching of immigrants from over seventy countries of origin to 22 European countries. Using European Social Survey for the years 2002-2009 and the multinomial logit framework, we show that, relative to the native born, immigrants are more likely to be both under- and overeducated for the jobs that they perform. This mismatch is due to individual-specific factors, such as labor market experience and its transferability. Immigrants’ outcomes converge to those of the native born with the years of labor market experience. The mismatch is also due to immigrants’ selection and sorting across countries. Notably, we show that origin countries’ degree of income inequality and the quality of human capital, by affecting selection, mostly matter for undereducation of immigrants. Overeducation is determined to a greater extent by destination-country economic conditions and labor market institutions. Immigrant-specific policies in destination countries, such as those improving eligibility and fighting discrimination, also positively affect overall matching, while policies promoting integration decrease undereducation. Creation-Date: 2011-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2011/wp2011-16.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Does Importing more Inputs Raise Exports? Firm Level Evidence from France Author-Name: Maria Bas Author-Name: Vanessa Strauss-Kahn Keywords: Firm heterogeneity;Imported inputs;TFP;Export scope;Varieties;Firm-level data Classification-JEL:F10;F12 Abstract: Why would an increase in imported inputs rise exports? We argue that importing more varieties of intermediate inputs increases firm’s productivity and thereby makes the firm able to overcome the export fixed costs. Whereas the literature evidences the positive effect of an increase in imported inputs on firms’ productivity and shows that only the most productive firms export, the link between imported intermediate inputs and export scope has not been made. This paper bridges the gap by studying the impact of imported inputs on the margins of exports. We use a firms’ level database of imports at the product (HS6) level provided by French Customs for the 1995-2005 period. Access to new varieties of inputs may increase productivity, and thereby exports, through better complementarity of inputs and transfer of technology. We test for these different mechanisms by distinguishing the origin of imports (developing vs. developed countries). We find a significant impact of higher diversification and increased number of imported inputs varieties on firm’s TFP and export scope. Both the complementarity and transfer of technology mechanisms seem to matter. Creation-Date: 2011-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2011/wp2011-15.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Joint Estimates of Automatic and Discretionary Fiscal Policy: the OECD 1981-2003 Author-Name: Julia Darby Author-Name: Jacques Melitz Keywords: Automatic stabilization;Discretionary fiscal policy;Government social and health spending;Maastricht Treaty;Stability and growth pact;Real time reaction functions Classification-JEL:E62;E63 Abstract: Official calculations of automatic stabilizers are seriously flawed since they rest on the assumption that the only element of social spending that reacts automatically to the cycle is unemployment compensation. This puts into question many estimates of discretionary fiscal policy. In response, we propose a simultaneous estimate of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy. This leads us, quite naturally, to a tripartite decomposition of the budget balance between revenues, social spending and other spending as a bare minimum. Our headline results for a panel of 20 OECD countries in 1981- 2003 are .59 automatic stabilization in percentage-points of primary surplus balances. All of this stabilization remains following discretionary responses during contractions, but arguably only about 3/5 of it remains so in expansions while discretionary behavior cancels the rest. We pay a lot of attention to the impact of the Maastricht Treaty and the SGP on the EU members of our sample and to real time data. Creation-Date: 2011-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2011/wp2011-14.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Impacts of Immigration on Aging Welfare-State An Applied General Equilibrium Model for France Author-Name: Xavier Chojnicki Author-Name: Lionel Ragot Keywords: Migration;CGEM;Overlapping generation;Aging;Public finance;Social protection Classification-JEL:C68;D58;E60;H55;H68 Abstract: Immigration is often perceived as an instrument of adaptation for aging countries. In this paper, we evaluate, using a dynamic general equilibrium model, the contribution of migration policy in reducing the tax burden associated with the aging population in France. Four variants, compared to a baseline scenario based on official projections for France (INSEE, COR, etc.), are simulated with the aim to quantify the immigration effects on the French social protection finances. The first variant assesses the economic effects of immigration in France as projected into official forecasts. The three other variants are built on the same more ambitious annual quantitative flows of immigrants (corresponding to net inflows that have characterized the second great wave of immigration in France in the twentieth century). These three variants only distinguish in terms of the skill structure of new migrants. We show that the age and skill structure of immigrants is the key feature that mainly determines the effects on social protection finances. Overall, these effects are all the more positive in the short-medium term that the migration policy is selective (in favor of more skilled workers). In the long term, beneficial effects of a selective policy may disappear. But the financial gains from more consequent migration flows are relatively moderated in comparison of demographic changes it implies. Creation-Date: 2011-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2011/wp2011-13.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Performance of Socially Responsible Funds: Does the Screening Process Matter? Author-Name: Gunther Capelle-Blancard Author-Name: Stéphanie Monjon Keywords: Socially Responsible Investing (SRI);Sustainable and Responsible Investment;Ethical Investment;Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR);Portfolio Choice;Ratings Classification-JEL:G11;Q56;C32 Abstract: This paper is about the financial performance of mutual funds that practice Socially Responsible Investing (SRI). First, we measure the financial performance of a sample of 116 French SRI mutual funds over the period 2004-2007. As expected, and according to previous studies, our results show that SRI funds do not outperform the market, whatever the performance measure considered. Then, we assess the financial performances within our sample of SRI funds, as suggested by Barnett and Salomon (2006). Precisely, we examine whether the financial performances of these funds are related to the features of the SRI selection process. We find evidence that a greater screening intensity reduces SRI financial performance, but the relationship runs in the opposite direction when screening gets tougher. Further, we show that only sectoral screens – such as avoiding “sin” stocks – decrease financial performance, while transversal screens – commitment to UN Global Compact Principles, ILO/Rights at Work, etc. – have no impact. Other characteristics of the screening process like shareholder activism, or the overall quality of the SRI process do not have any significant impact either. Creation-Date: 2011-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2011/wp2011-12.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Market Size, Competition, and the Product Mix of Exporters Author-Name: Thierry Mayer Author-Name: Marc Melitz Author-Name: Gianmarco Ottaviano Keywords: Product mix;Competition;Markups;Multi-product firms Classification-JEL:F12 Abstract: We build a theoretical model of multi-product firms that highlights how market size and geography (the market sizes of and bilateral economic distances to trading partners) affect both a firm’s exported product range and its exported product mix across market destinations (the distribution of sales across products for a given product range). We show how tougher competition in an export market induces a firm to skew its export sales towards its best performing products. We find very strong confirmation of this competitive effect for French exporters across export market destinations. Trade models based on exogenous markups cannot explain this strong significant link between destination market characteristics and the within-firm skewness of export sales (after controlling for bilateral trade costs). Theoretically, this within firm change in product mix driven by the trading environment has important repercussions on firm productivity and how it responds to changes in that trading environment. Creation-Date: 2011-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2011/wp2011-11.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Trade Unit Values Database Author-Name: Antoine Berthou Author-Name: Charlotte Emlinger Keywords: UNIT VALUE;TRADE PRICE;INTERNATIONAL TRADE Classification-JEL:E3;F1;F4 Abstract: Trade unit values are commonly used as proxies for trade prices in empirical research in international economics. Existing datasets providing international trade unit values for a large number of countries typically suffer from a number of statistical biases, due to the aggregation of unit values and the harmonization of quantity information. These biases reduce the reliability of unit values as a proxy for trade prices. This paper presents the Trade Unit Values dataset, a new database developed to circumvent these statistical issues. Bilateral trade unit values are computed at a very high level of disaggregation before aggregation into Harmonized-System 6-digits categories to allow for cross-country comparability. Our processing strategy improves the differentiation of trade prices within product categories, as compared to existing worldwide datasets. A simple econometric analysis shows that unit values in our database are well explained by economic aggregates. Creation-Date: 2011-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2011/wp2011-10.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Carbon Price Drivers: Phase I Versus Phase II Equilibrium? Author-Name: Anna Creti Author-Name: Pierre-André Jouvet Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Keywords: EU ETS;CARBON PRICE;ENERGY PRICES;COINTEGRATION Classification-JEL:q40;c22 Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of the carbon price during the two phases of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). More specifically, relying on daily EU allowance futures contracts, we test whether the carbon price drivers identified for Phase I still hold for Phase II and evolve toward a long-run relationship. Using cointegration techniques and accounting for the 2006 structural break on the carbon market, we show that while a cointegrating relationship exists for both phases of the EU ETS, the nature of this equilibrium relationship is different across the two subperiods, with an increasing role of fundamentals in Phase II. Deriving equilibrium values, we show that the carbon price tends to be undervalued since the end of 2009. Creation-Date: 2011-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2011/wp2011-09.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-09 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Rebalancing Growth in China: An International Perspective Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Benjamin Carton Author-Name: Ludovic Gauvin Keywords: Global imbalances;EXCHANGE RATE;capital controls;CHINA Classification-JEL:F32;F42;F47 Abstract: Based on simulations of an original DGE model of the US, Chinese and Euro area economies with financial frictions and various monetary regimes, the paper shows that the contribution of China in global rebalancing should primarily rely on structural policies aiming at reducing aggregate savings in China. The role of the exchange-rate regime would be minor under standard monetary policies, although more important if monetary policies in advanced countries are constrained, as they are today. Finally, relying only on a change in China’s monetary regime (without structural reforms) could end up in delaying rather than accelerating the rebalancing, depending on China’s policy regarding accumulated reserves. Creation-Date: 2011-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2011/wp2011-08.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-08 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Economic Integration in the EuroMed: Current Status and Review of Studies Author-Name: Joachim Jarreau Keywords: REGIONAL INTEGRATION;EUROMED;GRAVITY MODEL;CGEM Classification-JEL:F15;F17;O24;O53;O55 Abstract: This article draws a picture of the current status of the liberalization process in the Euro-Mediterranean region, and reviews existing studies of this process. Economic integration among the South-Med countries (SMCs) has started in the middle 1990s through intra-regional agreements (GAFTA, Agadir Agreement) and bilateral agreements with the EU. Econometric studies using gravity models generally found important trade creation effects for intra-regional trade, but smaller and asymmetric effects from EU-Med agreements, with an increase of export flows from the EU but no increase of flows in the other direction. Simulations with CGE models shows the main sources of gains (trade creation) and of losses (trade diversion, terms of trade) for SMCs. Studies also suggest that a dismantling of non-tariff barriers and of barriers in services trade could yield substantial gains for SMCs. A table with existing agreements and a picture of economic flows in the region can be found in the annex. Creation-Date: 2011-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2011/wp2011-07.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-07 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Decision to Import Capital Goods in India: Firms' Financial Factors Matter Author-Name: Maria Bas Author-Name: Antoine Berthou Keywords: Access to finance;foreign technology;firm panel data;INDIA;INVESTMENT Classification-JEL:F10;F14;D24;D92 Abstract: Are financial constraints preventing firms from importing capital goods? Sourcing capital goods from foreign countries is costly and requires internal or external financial resources. A simple model of foreign technology adoption shows that credit constraints act as a barrier to importing capital goods under imperfect financial markets. In our study, we investigate this prediction using detailed balance-sheet data from a sample of about 5,500 Indian manufacturing firms per year, having reported information on financial statements and imports by type of good over the period 1996-2006. Our empirical findings shed new light on the micro determinants of firms’ choice to import capital goods. Baseline estimation results show that firms with a lower leverage and higher liquidity are more likely to source their capital goods from foreign countries. Quantitatively, an improvement of the liquidity or leverage ratio by 10% increases the probability of importing capital goods by 3% to 5% respectively, independently of productivity. These findings are robust to alternative measures of foreign technology. The effect of leverage is also robust with respect to specifications dealing directly with reverse causality. Creation-Date: 2011-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2011/wp2011-06.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-06 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: FDI from the South: the Role of Institutional Distance and Natural Resources Author-Name: Mariya Aleksynska Author-Name: Olena Havrylchyk Keywords: Foreign direct investment;South-South;developing countries;institutions;crowding-in;natural resources Classification-JEL:F21;F23;E02 Abstract: This study explores location choices for investors stemming from emerging economies (often referred to as the South), with a particular emphasis on institutions and natural resources. Relying on a novel dataset of bilateral FDI flows between 1996 and 2007, we demonstrate that FDI from the South has a more regional aspect than investment stemming from the North. Institutional distance has an asymmetric effect on FDI depending on whether investors choose countries with better or worse institutions. In the latter case, a large institutional distance between source and destination countries discourages FDI inflows, but the growing attractiveness of the primary sector outweighs this deterring effect for emerging investors. We also attest to the complementary relationship between capital flows from the North and South in developing recipient countries, which we attribute to different FDI patterns of these investors. Creation-Date: 2011-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2011/wp2011-05.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: What International Monetary System for a Fast-Changing World Economy? Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Jean Pisani-Ferry Keywords: International monetary system;Capital controls Classification-JEL:F33;F32 Abstract: Though the renminbi is not yet convertible, the international monetary regime has already started to move towards a 'multipolar' system, with the dollar, the Chinese currency and the euro as its key likely pillars. This shift corresponds to the long-term evolution of the balance of economic weight in the world economy. Such an evolution may mitigate some flaws of the present (non-) system, such as the rigidity of key exchange rates, the asymmetry of balanceof- payments adjustments or what remains of the Triffin dilemma. However it may exacerbate other problems, such as short-run exchange rate volatility or the scope for ‘currency wars’, while leaving key questions unresolved, such as the response to capital flows global liquidity provision. Hence, in itself, a multipolar regime can be both the best and the worst of all regimes. Which of these alternatives will materialise depends on the degree of cooperation within a multilateral framework. Creation-Date: 2011-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2011/wp2011-04.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Quel système monétaire international pour une économie mondiale en mutation rapide ? Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Jean Pisani-Ferry Keywords: Classification-JEL:F33;F32 Abstract: Though the renminbi is not yet convertible, the international monetary regime has already started to move towards a 'multipolar' system, with the dollar, the Chinese currency and the euro as its key likely pillars. This shift corresponds to the long-term evolution of the balance of economic weight in the world economy. Such an evolution may mitigate some flaws of the present (non-) system, such as the rigidity of key exchange rates, the asymmetry of balanceof- payments adjustments or what remains of the Triffin dilemma. However it may exacerbate other problems, such as short-run exchange rate volatility or the scope for ‘currency wars’, while leaving key questions unresolved, such as the response to capital flows global liquidity provision. Hence, in itself, a multipolar regime can be both the best and the worst of all regimes. Which of these alternatives will materialise depends on the degree of cooperation within a multilateral framework. Creation-Date: 2011-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2011/wp2011-04.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: China's Foreign Trade in the Perspective of a More Balanced Economic Growth Author-Name: Guillaume Gaulier Author-Name: Françoise Lemoine Author-Name: Deniz Ünal Keywords: China;Growth model;FDI;Ordinary trade;Domestic market Classification-JEL:F1;F2;F15;F23;O53 Abstract: The global crisis is forcing China’s economy to become less dependent on foreign markets. Manufacturing industry has to adjust to changes in international demand. Foreign affiliates’ processed exports are vulnerable to the slow-down of Western demand, while Chinese exporting firms are better placed to switch to dynamic emerging markets. China’s ordinary imports have risen fast. Asia has enlarged its share in the domestic market, Europe has kept a strong position while North-America has lost ground. China has become the engine of the regional economic growth. Foreign-capital firms have played an increasing part in China’s imports and industrial production. China’s policy towards FDI is at least as important as its exchange rate policy to determine foreign partners’ access to its domestic market. Creation-Date: 2011-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2011/wp2011-03.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Interactions Between the Credit Default Swap and the Bond Markets in Financial Turmoil Author-Name: Virginie Coudert Author-Name: Mathieu Gex Keywords: Financial crisis;Credit default swaps;Bonds;Price discovery process Classification-JEL:G15;G01 Abstract: We analyse the links between credit default swap (CDS) and bond spreads and try to determine which one is the leading market in the price discovery process. To do that, we construct a sample of CDS premia and bonds spreads on a generic 5-year bond, for 17 financials and 18 sovereigns. First, we run VECM estimations, showing that the CDS market has a lead over the bond market over the whole sample. A decomposition of the sample shows that this result holds for financials as well as for the high-yield emerging sovereigns. However, the bond market still drives the CDS market for the sovereigns in the core of the euro area. Second, we check for non-linearities in the adjustment process during the current crisis. Results show that the CDS market's lead has been amplified by the crisis for financial institutions. Creation-Date: 2011-02 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2011/wp2011-02.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Comparative Advantage and Within-Industry Firms Performance Author-Name: Matthieu Crozet Author-Name: Federico Trionfetti Keywords: Factor intensity;Firms heterogeneity;Test of trade theories Classification-JEL:F1 Abstract: Guided by empirical evidence we consider firms heterogeneity in terms of factor intensity. We show that Heckscher-Ohlin comparative advantage and firm-level relative factor-intensity interact to jointly explain the observed differences in relative sales. Firms whose relative factor-intensity matches up with the comparative advantage of the country have lower relative marginal costs and larger relative sales than firms who do not. Our empirical analysis, conducted using data for a large panel of European firms, supports these predictions. Our findings also provide an original firm-level verification of the Heckscher-Ohlin model based on the effect of comparative advantage on firms relative sales. Creation-Date: 2011-01 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2011/wp2011-01.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Export Performance and Credit Constraints in China Author-Name: Joachim Jarreau Author-Name: Sandra Poncet Keywords: Export performance;Credit constraints;Financial liberalization;FDI Classification-JEL:F10;F14;F23;F36;G32 Abstract: We investigate how the export performance of firms in China is influenced by credit constraints. Using panel data from Chinese customs for 1997-2007, we show that credit constraints restrict international trade flows and affect the sectoral composition of firms’ activity. We confirm that credit constraints provide an advantage to Foreign-owned firms and joint ventures over private domestic firms as their export performance is systematically greater in sectors with higher levels of financial vulnerability measured in a variety of ways. We however find that financial sector liberalization has partially reduced these distortions in exports over the period. Creation-Date: 2010-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2010/wp2010-33.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2010-33 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Export Performance of China's Domestic Firms: the Role of Foreign Export Spillovers Author-Name: Florian Mayneris Author-Name: Sandra Poncet Keywords: Export performance;Spillovers Classification-JEL:F1 Abstract: We investigate how the creation of new export linkages (extensive margin of trade) by domestic firms in China is influenced by their proximity to multinational exporters. Using panel data from Chinese customs for 1997-2007, we show that there is evidence that domestic firms’ capacity to start exporting new varieties to new markets positively relates to the export performance of neighboring foreign firms for that same product-country pair. We find that foreign export spillovers are limited to ordinary trade activities. No foreign export spillovers are found for processing trade. More, export spillovers are stronger for sophisticated products indicating that proximity to foreign exporters may help domestic exporters to upgrade their exports. However we observe that foreign export spillovers are weaker when the technology gap between foreign and domestic firms is large, suggesting that upgrading may not occur in locations and sectors where foreign firms have already a strong edge. Creation-Date: 2010-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2010/wp2010-32.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2010-32 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Wholesalers in International Trade Author-Name: Matthieu Crozet Author-Name: Guy Lalanne Author-Name: Sandra Poncet Keywords: Wholesalers;International trade;Intermediated exports;Heterogenous firms;Quality Classification-JEL:F1 Abstract: Recent empirical research in international trade has revealed overwhelming evidence that, in all countries, a remarkably small proportion of firms report exports in Customs statistics. A large share of these are wholesalers. This suggests that the number of firms active in foreign markets might be much greater than that suggested by a simple count of the firms directly reporting their exports. This paper thus sheds light on the role of wholesalers in international trade. Our model, which allows for quality differentiation, uses very general assumptions to show that intermediated exporters may contribute significantly to the extension of countries’ export opportunities. The model predicts a twofold role in international trade. First, wholesalers help less-efficient firms to supply foreign markets, thus increasing the number of exported varieties at the aggregate level. Second, they alleviate the difficulty of reaching less-accessible markets. We use French firm-level export data to provide empirical support for these two predictions. Creation-Date: 2010-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2010/wp2010-31.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2010-31 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: TVA et taux de marge : une analyse empirique sur données d'entreprises Author-Name: Philippe Andrade Author-Name: Martine Carré Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Keywords: Classification-JEL:H21;H23;J41 Abstract: We study how French exporters react to a VAT shock in a destination country. VAT shocks are by nature almost permanent, exogenous, and have no impact on marginal costs. We argue that the subsequent price reaction therefore identifies to which extent mark-up adjustments tame the impact of a macro shock on final consumption prices. We show that even a uniform increase in the VAT rate can entail non-uniform mark-up adjustments across exporters and, consequently, an important redistribution of profits both between sectors and across firms within a sector. Indeed, mark-up adjustments vary with the elasticity of demand and the market shares. Creation-Date: 2010-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2010/wp2010-30.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2010-30 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Economic and Cultural Assimilation and Integration of Immigration in Europe Author-Name: Mariya Aleksynska Author-Name: Yann Algan Keywords: Assimilation;Integration;Migration policies;Europe Classification-JEL:J1;F22;Z13 Abstract: This paper documents assimilation of immigrants in 16 European countries along cultural, civic, and economic dimensions, distinguishing by immigrants’ generation, duration of stay, and origin. It suggests that assimilation may have multiple facets, and take place at different speed depending on the outcome in question. While assimilation along some economic outcomes may be correlated with assimilation along some cultural outcomes, such correlations are not systematic, and imply that progress on some dimensions may compensate the lack of progress on other dimensions; and also that a big discrepancy in one dimension is not necessarily a handicap, or an impediment, for assimilation on other grounds. Correlation of immigrants’ outcomes and specific policies aimed at immigrants’ integration are rather disparate, raising further questions regarding both their effectiveness and differentiated effect on various aspects of life. Creation-Date: 2010-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2010/wp2010-29.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2010-29 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Les firmes françaises dans le commerce de service Author-Name: Guillaume Gaulier Author-Name: Emmanuel Milet Author-Name: Daniel Mirza Keywords: Classification-JEL:D22;F14;L80 Abstract: This paper is the first to use the Banque de France database on firm-level exports and imports of services. We first show that firms trading services are bigger, more productive and pay higher wages than the purely domestic ones. Second, exports are very concentrated among a few numbers of firms. Finally, firms from the service sector are two to five times smaller than the industrial firms which trade services. We end up with an econometric estimation à la Bernard and Jensen (2004) where we show that previous export of both goods and services is an important determinant of present exports of services. Creation-Date: 2010-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2010/wp2010-28.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2010-28 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The World Economy in 2050: a Tentative Picture Author-Name: Jean Fouré Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Keywords: GDP projections;Long run;Global economy Classification-JEL:E23;E27;F02;F47 Abstract: We present growth scenarios for 128 countries to 2050, based on a three-factor production function that includes capital, labour and energy. We improve on the literature by accounting for the energy constraint through dynamic modelling of energy productivity, and departing from the assumptions of either a closed economy or full capital mobility by applying a Feldstein-Horioka-type relationship between savings and investment rates. Our results suggest that, accounting for relative price variations, China could account for 28% of the world economy in 2050, which would be much more than the United States (14%), India (12%), the European Union (11%) and Japan (3%). They suggest also that China would overtake the United States around 2025 (2035 at constant relative prices). However, in terms of standards of living, measured through GDP per capita in purchasing power parity, only China would be close to achieving convergence to the US level, and only at the end of the simulation period. Creation-Date: 2010-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2010/wp2010-27.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2010-27 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Determinants and Pervasiveness of the Evasion of Customs Duties Author-Name: Sébastien Jean Author-Name: Cristina Mitaritonna Keywords: Tax evasion;Custom duty;Institutions;International trade Classification-JEL:F13;H26;K42 Abstract: Evasion of customs duties is a serious concern in developing countries, where tariff receipts are often important, but their collection is often problematic. We study theoretically and empirically the determinants of evasion across countries and products, based on a systematic analysis of discrepancies in trade declarations - when available - for both partners. We conclude that evasion of customs duties is greater in poorer countries, especially where the rule of law is limited. The consequences are likely to be the most serious in the poorest countries, where we find a one percentage point higher tariff to be associated on average with an understatement of imports of 1% or more. We assess some policy remedies and conclude that automated customs data treatment may be particularly useful. Creation-Date: 2010-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2010/wp2010-26.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2010-26 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: On the Link Between Credit Procyclicality and Bank Competition Author-Name: Vincent Bouvatier Author-Name: Antonia Lopez-Villavicencio Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Keywords: Credit cycle;Economic cycle;Bank competition;Financial stability;Panel VAR Classification-JEL:C33;E52;E51;G21 Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between bank competition and credit procyclicality for 17 OECD countries on the 1986-2009 period. We account for heterogeneity among countries in terms of bank competition through the use of a hierarchical clustering methodology. We then estimate panel VAR models for the identified sub-groups of economies to investigate whether credit procyclicality is more important when the degree of bank competition is high. Our findings show that while credit significantly responds to shocks to GDP, the degree of bank competition is not essential in assessing the procyclicality of credit for OECD countries. Creation-Date: 2010-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2010/wp2010-25.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2010-25 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Are Derivatives Dangerous? a Literature Survey Author-Name: Gunther Capelle-Blancard Keywords: Derivatives;Forwards;Futures;Options;Financial innovation;Speculation;OTC markets;Financial instability Classification-JEL:A1;D8;G1 Abstract: Since the 1970s, the financial system has undergone deep structural changes. Innovation has been a key driver of these changes and most economists acknowledge that the impact has been positive overall. However, each time a financial crisis arises, the debate is on. Derivatives especially, which are among the major innovations of the past thirty years, cause deep concerns. In this paper, we propose a survey of the academic literature that has addressed the threats posed by derivatives. An initial issue is the impact of derivatives on the volatility of the underlying assets, but empirical findings do not suggest any significant effect. The recent literature on the dangers of derivatives is more concerned by systemic risks. Several studies suggest that the sophistication of the products and the concentration of risks are potential sources of instability because of the increasing uncertainty, the repeated occurrence of extreme losses, and finally the greater possibility of global crisis. Among the solutions that have been proposed to mitigate risk, beyond strengthening internal control, putting clearinghouses into general use and limiting naked-transactions seem to be the most promising avenues. Creation-Date: 2010-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2010/wp2010-24.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2010-24 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version Author-Name: Guillaume Gaulier Author-Name: Soledad Zignago Keywords: International trade;Trade costs;CIF/FOB;Trade data reconciliation Classification-JEL:F10;F14;F13;C80 Abstract: This paper documents the construction of BACI, our international trade database, which covers more than 200 countries and 5,000 products, between 1994 and 2007. New approaches have been developed to reconcile data reported by almost 150 countries to the United Nations Statistics Division, collated via COMTRADE. When both exporting and importing countries report to Comtrade, we have two different figures for the same flow, so it is useful to reconcile these into a single figure. To do this, firstly, as import values are reported CIF (cost, insurance and freight) while exports are reported FOB (free on board), transport and insurance rates have to be estimated and removed from import values. We regress the observed CIF/FOB ratios for a given flow on gravity variables and a product-specific world median unit value. In a second step we evaluate the reliability of countries reporting. We decompose the absolute value of the ratios of mirror flows using a (weighted) variance analysis. These measures of the reliability of reported data are used as weights in the reconciliation of each bilateral trade flow which is reported twice. Taking advantage of this bilateral information on each flow, we end up with a large coverage of countries and more reliable data, especially in terms of unit-values. BACI is freely available online to users of COMTRADE database, in different product classifications. Creation-Date: 2010-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2010/wp2010-23.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2010-23 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Indirect Exporters Author-Name: Fergal McCann Keywords: Exports;Productivity;Trade intermediation;Indirect exporters Classification-JEL:F10;F14 Abstract: An Indirect Exporter is defined as a firm that sells its product to a trade intermediary in its own country, who then goes on to export the good. Despite the numerous appearances of these firms in recent theoretical models, there has been no empirical work comparing these firms to Domestic firms and “Direct Exporters". Using a firm-level data set for Eastern Europe, I show that these firms do, as predicted in the theoretical literature, lie between Domestic firms and Direct Exporters for a range of measures of firm performance. The advantage enjoyed by Direct Exporters is the most robust finding, while the ambiguity surrounding the productivity gap between Indirect Exporters and Domestic firms indicates that these two categories of firm may be close to identical. Creation-Date: 2010-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2010/wp2010-22.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2010-22 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Réforme des retraites en France : évaluation de la mise en place d'un système par comptes notionnels Author-Name: Xavier Chojnicki Author-Name: Riccardo Magnani Keywords: Classification-JEL:H55;J1;C68 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2010-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2010/wp2010-21.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2010-21 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Art of Exceptions: Sensitive Products in the Doha Negotiations Author-Name: Christophe Gouel Author-Name: Cristina Mitaritonna Author-Name: Maria Priscila Ramos Keywords: Agricultural trade;Doha development agenda;CGE model;Disaggregation;Sensitive products;Tariff-rate quotas Classification-JEL:C68;F13;F17;Q17;Q18 Abstract: It is necessary for multilateral trade negotiations to include exceptions to accommodate politically sensitive sectors. However, given the highly concentrated distribution of agricultural protection, too many exceptions put at risk the objectives of World Trade Organization. This paper assesses the delicate balance required, based on the case of agricultural trade protection in Europe and Japan, two countries where tariff dismantling in the agricultural sector is a particularly sensitive issue. Since agricultural border protection is heterogeneous, we avoid aggregation bias by extending a multi-country computable general equilibrium model to the product level. This allows us to combine the assets from general equilibrium and partial equilibrium modeling, and to take explicit account of interdependencies and trade policies. The results suggest that consideration of sensitive products strongly limits the potential gains from a possible agriculture agreement at Doha. Moreover, there is no aggregate trade-off between decreasing tariffs and increasing/opening quotas. To achieve “substantial” market access improvements in the agricultural sector, the objective should be most favored nation tariff reduction. Creation-Date: 2010-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2010/wp2010-20.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2010-20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Measuring Intangible Capital Investment: an Application to the 'French Data' Author-Name: Vincent Delbecque Author-Name: Laurence Nayman Keywords: Intangible capital investment;National accounts;Methodology;Productivity;Growth Classification-JEL:E22;B40;C82;O47 Abstract: Following Corrado, Hulten and Sichel (2005) this paper investigates French spending in intangible capital. In this work, we tackle two issues. First, working on national accounting data we sharply investigate the data sources, using detailed supply & use tables taken from the French national accounts. Second, referring to different fields in the economic literature, we deepen the analysis and the measurement methods that have been used recently in the empirical literature. We are then able to assess more accurately the items of interest. We estimate that French intangible GFCF could be valued for the whole economy between 8% and 9% of GDP in 2004 and between 6% and 7% for the business sector. Creation-Date: 2010-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2010/wp2010-19.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2010-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Clustering the Winners: the French Policy of Competitiveness Clusters Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Pamina Koenig Author-Name: Florian Mayneris Author-Name: Sandra Poncet Keywords: Competitiveness;Clusters;International Trade;Firm selection Classification-JEL:F1;F14 Abstract: In 2005 the French government launched a policy of competitiveness clusters, giving subsidies for innovative projects managed locally and collectively by firms, research centers and universities. This paper proposes an ex-ante analysis of the outcome of the selection process that took place before the implementation of the subsidies program, in order to assess whether the policy ended up in choosing winners or losers. We first ask how the clusters have been selected, and then focus on the selection of firms within the clusters, using export and productivity as a measure of performance. Our main conclusion is that public authorities have chosen the winners during the two-step selection procedure. Export premium, beyond what individual characteristics would predict, is however most visible within the category of clusters having no international ambition, where heterogeneity among firms is the largest. Creation-Date: 2010-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2010/wp2010-18.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2010-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Credit Default Swap Market and the Settlement of Large Defaults Author-Name: Virginie Coudert Author-Name: Mathieu Gex Keywords: Credit derivatives;bankruptcy;credit default swap;auction Classification-JEL:D44;G01;G15;G33 Abstract: The huge positions on the credit default swaps (CDS) have raised concerns about the ability of the market to settle major entities’ defaults. The near-failure of AIG and the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008 have revealed the exposure of CDS’s buyers to counterparty risk and hence highlighted the necessity of organizing the market, which triggered a large reform process. First we analyse the vulnerabilities of the market at the bursting of this crisis. Second, to understand its resilience to major credit events, we unravel the auction process implemented to settle defaults, the strategies of buyers and sellers and the links with the bond market. We then study the way it worked for key defaults, such as Lehman Brothers, Washington Mutual, CIT and Thomson, as well as, for the Government Sponsored Enterprises. Third, we discuss the ongoing reforms aimed at strengthening the market resilience. Creation-Date: 2010-08 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2010/wp2010-17.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2010-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Impact of the 2007-2010 Crisis on the Geography of Finance Author-Name: Gunther Capelle-Blancard Author-Name: Yamina Tadjeddine Keywords: Financial Geography;International Financial Centers;Globalization;Financial Crisis;Subprime Classification-JEL:E44;G2;R1 Abstract: The location of financial activities is traditionally characterized by a great deal of inertia. However, the 2007-10 crisis may considerably modify the geography of finance and cause an upheaval in world hierarchy. The crisis hit the Western countries directly and the main financial centers have been massively losing jobs, especially London and New York. Moreover, in Western countries, the financial industry is on the way to lose the support implicitly provided by governments until the crisis. Indeed, while finance was considered as a first-class position in the international division of labor, the crisis has clearly shown the threats associated with an excessive growth of the financial industry (vulnerability to external shocks, rising of inequalities, etc.). Hence, even within the traditional bastions of finance it is claimed that the financial industry needs to get smaller. At the same time, stock markets in Shanghai, Hong-Kong and Bombay are upstaging them as major players. Creation-Date: 2010-08 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2010/wp2010-16.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2010-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Socially Responsible Investing: it Takes More than Words Author-Name: Gunther Capelle-Blancard Author-Name: Stéphanie Monjon Keywords: socially and responsible investment;ethical investment;business ethics;corporate social responsibility;content analysis;conceptual analysis;financial performance;greenwashing Classification-JEL:A13;G11;G12;G20;M14 Abstract: Socially Responsible Investing (SRI) enjoys a large consensus and is frequently presented as a solution to conciliate finance and sustainable development. As proof of its success, most of its proponents point to the growth of the SRI market. The aim of this paper is to put this growth into perspective. To begin with, we propose an appraisal of the SRI market growth. Then, we use online search engines and archive collections to examine the popularity of SRI in the public debate. We also rely on a content analysis of articles that deal with SRI. It enables us to identify the most favored topics and consequently to find out journalists and scholars’ mainstream opinions and attitudes vis-à-vis SRI. Our main results can be summarized as follows. Actually, the SRI market share remains low (slightly more than 10%), not to say very low if we consider only “Core SRI” (very few percent). Its growth is relatively high in Europe, but its market share is stagnating in the US. In this regard, the contrast is striking with the growing number of articles related to SRI on the web and in books, newspapers and academic journals worldwide. The fact that these papers focus on the performance of the SRI funds, to the detriment of conceptual issues regarding ethic or altruism, may explain this dissonance. Creation-Date: 2010-08 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2010/wp2010-15.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2010-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: A Case for Intermediate Exchange-Rate Regimes Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Véronique Salins Keywords: EXCHANGE RATE REGIME;DSGE MODEL;IMS;G20;G20 Classification-JEL:f33;f41;F42;F50 Abstract: Despite increasing capital mobility and the subsequent difficulty in controlling exchange rates, intermediate exchange-rate regimes have remained widespread, especially in emerging and developing economies. This piece of evidence hardly fits the "impossible Trinity" theory arguing that it becomes difficult to control the exchange rate without a "hard" device when capital flows are freed. Calvo and Reinhart (2000) have suggested several explanations for such "fear of floating": exchange rate pass-through, liability dollarization, dollar invoicing of domestic and external transactions, and an underdeveloped market for currency hedging make it more desirable to stabilize the nominal exchange rate. However, the New-Keynesian model, which has become the main workhorse for studying exchange-rate regime choice since the 1990s, typically opposes fixed nominal pegs to free-floating regime, without considering intermediate regimes. We intend to fill this gap here by comparing the performance of "extreme" regimes to that of an intermediate regime where monetary authorities care both about inflation and about nominal exchange-rate deviations from the steady state, when a small economy is hit by several types of shocks. Without nominal wage rigidities, our results are in line with the New-Keynesian literature arguing in favor of inflation-targeting regimes. However, when nominal wage rigidities are taken into account, we find the intermediate regime to be appropriate for an economy that is mainly hit by productivity and foreign-interest shocks, which is often the case in emerging and developing economies. The free-floating regime (with inflation targeting) seems more adequate if the economy experiences mostly demand shocks and foreign prices shock. Finally, the fixed peg regime is always dominated by either the free-floating or the intermediate regime. A fully-fledged analysis of intermediate regimes should of course account for the fear-of-floating-type advantages of such regimes, as well as for their shortcomings in terms of costly reserve-accumulation and/or recurrent crises. Our results however suggest that, by concentrating on two extreme regimes (fixed nominal pegs and free floats), by neglecting wage rigidities and/or by assuming that floating countries can engineer an "optimal" interest-rate feedback rule, the existing New-Keynesian literature may have exaggerated the merits of free-floating regimes to the detriment of "soft" pegs. Creation-Date: 2010-08 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2010/wp2010-14.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2010-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Gold and Financial Assets: Are There Any Safe Havens in Bear Markets? Author-Name: Virginie Coudert Author-Name: Hélène Raymond Keywords: GOLD;STOCK;SAFE HAVEN;HEDGE;NONLINEARITY Classification-JEL:G01;G15;F30;F36 Abstract: This paper looks into the role of gold as a safe haven against stocks during recessions and bear markets. Following Baur and McDermott (2010) and Baur and Lucey (2010), we characterize safe havens by their negative correlations with stocks during crises. We extend their results in three ways. First, we identify crisis periods by exogeneous means using, successively, recession periods provided by the NBER and periods of bear US stock markets. Second, we estimate a model allowing for time varying conditional covariances between gold and stocks returns. Third, we test if long run relationships exist between gold and stocks and explore whether they can be used to construct portfolios immune to crises. The regressions are run on monthly data for gold and several stock market indices (France, Germany, UK, US, G7) over the period 1978:2-2009:1. In the short run, we find that the correlation between gold and stocks is close to zero during recessions, which qualifies gold for being a “weak safe haven”. This is also the case during bear markets against the stock indices of most considered countries, although gold appears as a strong hedge versus the US stock index. A closer look at the data shows that these results only hold on average and not for every crisis episode or every country. In the longer run a negative relationships exists between gold and some stock markets (France, UK, US). However, it does not allow the construction of a hedged portfolio immune to all crises. Overall, despite its interest for the diversification of portfolios, gold stays a risky investment, even during crises. Creation-Date: 2010-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2010/wp2010-13.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2010-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: European Export Performance Author-Name: Angela Cheptea Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Soledad Zignago Keywords: INTERNATIONAL TRADE;Export Performance;Market Shares;Shift-Share;EU Classification-JEL:f12;f15 Abstract: Countries no longer specialise in products or sectors, but in varieties of the same product (sold at different prices). To study the way in which the European Union copes with the emergence of new big world exporters in this context, we analyse the redistribution of world market shares at the level of product variety. We distinguish for each product three price ranges. We decompose the growth of exports into structural effects (geographic and sectoral) and into a pure performance effect. From 1994 to 2007 the EU25 withstood the competition of emerging countries better than the U.S. and Japan. European market share losses arise during the 1994-2000 period, and are mainly explained by poor export performance of old member states. More precisely, the EU gains market shares in the upper segment of the market, by cumulating good performance and favourable structure effects, contrary to the U.S. and Japan which withdraw extensively from this segment of the market. Finally, all developed countries lose market shares in high-technology products to developing countries, with the EU losing less than other countries. Creation-Date: 2010-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2010/wp2010-12.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2010-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Effects of the Subprime Crisis on the Latin American Financial Markets: an Empirical Assessment Author-Name: Gilles Dufrénot Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Author-Name: Anne Péguin-Feissolle Keywords: Stock markets;Volatility;Financial stress;Regime-switching;Markov-switching model Classification-JEL:C13;C22;G01;G15 Abstract: The aim of this article is to answer the following question: can the considerable rise in the volatility of the LAC stock markets in the aftermath of the 2007/2008 crisis be explained by the worsening financial environment in the US markets? To this end, we rely on a timevarying transition probability Markov-switching model, in which “crisis” and “non-crisis” periods are identified endogenously. Using daily data from January 2004 to April 2009, our findings do not validate the “financial decoupling” hypothesis since we show that the financial stress in the US markets is transmitted to the LAC’s stock market volatility, especially in Mexico. Creation-Date: 2010-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2010/wp2010-11.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2010-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Foreign Bank Presence and its Effect on Firm Entry and Exit in Transition Economies Author-Name: Olena Havrylchyk Keywords: Entrepreneurship;Foreign Bank entry;Assymmetric information;Credit constraints Classification-JEL:E51;G21;M13 Abstract: This study investigates the impact of foreign bank penetration in Central and Eastern Europe on firm entry. We demonstrate that the acquisition of domestic banks by foreign investors has led to reduced firm creation, smaller average size of entrants and increased firm exit in opaque industries compared to transparent ones. At the same time, the entry of greenfield foreign banks spurred firm creation and exit. Unlike previous studies, which use interchangeably the notions of opacity and size, we define opacity in terms of technological process and show that economic significance of foreign bank entry is larger for opaque industries than for industries with large shares of small firms. Our findings can be interpreted as evidence of increased credit constraints and are consistent with theories that argue that foreign bank presence exacerbates informational asymmetries. Creation-Date: 2010-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2010/wp2010-10.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2010-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Distorted Effect of Financial Development on International Trade Flows Author-Name: Antoine Berthou Keywords: Bilateral Trade;Trade margins;Financial Development Classification-JEL:F12;G20;O16 Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of financial development on the intensive and extensive margins of countries exports, at different stages of economic development. The paper develops a partial equilibrium model with monopolistic competition. In this model, firms are heterogeneous in terms of productivity and have access to external liquidity. The effect of financial development on the intensive and extensive margins of countries exports is predicted to be positive, especially in sectors with a higher demand for external finance. In countries with poor financial institutions though, only the most productive firms benefit from an increased access to financial resources and start exporting, with little effect on aggregate exports. The effect of financial development on exports is therefore higher for a better initial development of financial institutions. The empirical analysis confirms that financial development promotes both the intensive and extensive margins of countries’ exports. This is more the case in industries with a higher demand for external finance. Though, more than 60% of the effect of financial development channels through the intensive margin. In industries where the demand for external finance is high, the effect of financial development is the highest in economies characterized by an intermediate development of financial institutions, and the lowest in countries with poor or advanced financial institutions. This contradicts the traditional expectation that financial development benefits more in terms of exports to countries where financial constraints are the most binding. Creation-Date: 2010-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2010/wp2010-09.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2010-09 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Exchange Rate Flexibility Across Financial Crises Author-Name: Virginie Coudert Author-Name: Cécile Couharde Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Keywords: FINANCIAL CRISIS;DOLLAR PEGS;CONTAGION EFFECTS;NONLINEARITY Classification-JEL:F31;G15;C22 Abstract: This paper studies the impact of global financial turmoil on the exchange rate policies in emerging countries. Many emerging countries have loosened the link of their currencies to the US dollar since the bursting of the subprime crisis in July 2007. Spillovers from advanced financial markets to currencies in emerging countries stem from the same causes documented in the literature on contagion, such as the drying–up of investors’ liquidity, the rise in risk aversion, and the updating of their risk assessments. Consequently, interdependencies across currencies are likely to be exacerbated during crisis periods. To test this hypothesis, we assess the exchange rate policies by their degree of flexibility, itself proxied by the exchange rate volatility, and investigate their relationship to a global financial stress indicator, measured by the volatility on global markets. We introduce the possibility of non-linearities by running smooth transition regressions (STR) over a sample of 21 emerging countries from January 1994 to September 2009. The results confirm that exchange rate flexibility does increase more than proportionally with the global financial stress, for most countries in the sample. We also evidence regional contagion effects spreading from one emerging currency to other currencies in the neighboring area. Creation-Date: 2010-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2010/wp2010-08.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2010-08 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Crises and the Collapse of World Trade: the Shift to Lower Quality Author-Name: Antoine Berthou Author-Name: Charlotte Emlinger Keywords: GLOBAL CRISIS;INCOME ELASTICITY;QUALITY LADDERS Classification-JEL:E31;F14;F41 Abstract: One of the most striking features of the crisis that started during the fall of 2008 has been the sharp decrease in the world volume of trade in goods. The collapse of trade values has been even larger, leading to a decrease of import price indices. We argue that the decrease of import price indices can be explained by a decrease of the demand addressed to the most expansive varieties. Descriptive statistics for the EU15 confirm that the decrease in the import price index is mainly due to a loss in market shares by high price varieties. The estimation of import demand equations confirm that higher price varieties report a larger elasticity with respect to GDP variations, as compared to low price varieties. Countries specialized over high quality varieties are expected to lose more trade in periods of global turmoil, and experience a faster recovery. Creation-Date: 2010-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2010/wp2010-07.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2010-07 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Heterogeneous Effect of International Outsourcing on Firm Productivity Author-Name: Fergal McCann Keywords: INTERNATIONAL OUTSOURCING;HETEROGENEOUS FIRMS;PRODUCTIVITY;FIRM STRUCTURE Classification-JEL:F23;L23 Abstract: This paper analyses how international outsourcing affects plant productivity. The results point to a striking pattern: the status of being an outsourcer matters strongly for firms that are indigenous and not exporting, while for exporters and foreign affiliates, tfp increases are lower, insignificant and sometimes negative. On the other hand, higher intensity of outsourcing matters for both exporters and foreign affiliates. Similarly, in dynamic analysis, indigenous non-exporters are found to increase tfp for two periods after entering into international outsourcing, while indigenous exporters experience one more weakly significant period of growth. The message is clear: international outsourcing’s effect on tfp is most pronounced when it serves as a first exposure to international markets. Creation-Date: 2010-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2010/wp2010-06.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2010-06 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Fiscal Expectations on the Stability and Growth Pact: Evidence from Survey Data Author-Name: Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro Author-Name: Jan-Christoph Rülke Keywords: Expectations;Credibility;Stability and growth pact;Survey data Classification-JEL:C33;E62;E65;H62 Abstract: The paper uses survey data to analyze whether the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) has changed financial market’s expectations on government budget deficits in France, Germany, Italy, and the UK. Our findings indicate that accuracy of financial experts’ deficit forecasts has increased in France during the SGP. The Pact seems to have also promoted a gain in credibility of European Commission’s deficit forecasts in France, Italy, and in the UK, particularly after its reform in 2005 and up to December 2007. Nevertheless, the National Fiscal Authorities’ forecasts of France, Germany, and Italy seem to have not been credible among market experts during the SGP. These results suggest that additional measures could be taken in order to make the fiscal rules of the Pact more credible among market specialists. Creation-Date: 2010-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2010/wp2010-05.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2010-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Terrorism Networks and Trade: Does the Neighor Hurt? Author-Name: José de Sousa Author-Name: Daniel Mirza Author-Name: Thierry Verdier Keywords: Terrorism;Trade;Security Classification-JEL:F12;F13 Abstract: We study the impact of transnational terrorism diffusion on security and trade. We set a simple theoretical model predicting that the closer a country to a source of terrorism, the higher the negative spillovers on its trade. The idea is that security measures, which impede trade, are directed both against the source country of terror and its neighbor countries where terrorism may diffuse. In contrast, we demonstrate that countries located far from terror could benefit from an increase in security by trading more. Taken to the test, we empirically document these predictions. We find (1) a direct negative impact of transnational terrorism on trade; (2) an indirect negative impact emanating from terrorism of neighbor countries; and (3) that trade is increasing with remoteness to terror. These results are robust to various definitions of the neighboring relationships among countries. Creation-Date: 2010-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2010/wp2010-04.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2010-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Wage Bargaining and the Boundaries of the Multinational Firm Author-Name: Maria Bas Author-Name: Juan Carluccio Keywords: Wage bargaining;Trade unions;Sourcing;Multinational firms Classification-JEL:F10;F12;F41 Abstract: Do variations in labor market institutions across countries affect the cross-border organization of the firm? Using firm-level data on multinationals located in France, we show that multinational firms are more likely to import intermediate inputs from external independent suppliers instead of importing from their own subsidiaries when importing from countries with empowered unions. Moreover, this effect is stronger for firms operating in capital-intensive industries. We propose a theoretical mechanism that rationalizes these findings. The fragmentation of the value chain weakens the union’s bargaining position, by limiting the amount of revenues that are subject to union extraction. The outsourcing strategy reduces the share of surplus that is appropriated by the union, which enhances the firm’s incentives to invest. Since investment creates relatively more value in capital-intensive industries, increases in union power are more likely to be conducive to outsourcing in those industries. Overall, our findings suggest that multinational firms use their organizational structure strategically when sourcing intermediate inputs from unionized markets. Creation-Date: 2010-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2010/wp2010-03.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2010-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Estimation of Consistent Multi-Country FEERs Author-Name: Benjamin Carton Author-Name: Karine Hervé Keywords: EXCHANGE RATES;CURRENT ACCOUNT ADJUSTMENT Classification-JEL:F31;F32 Abstract: Most studies on equilibrium exchange rates focus on a limited number of G7 countries. But in a situation of world imbalances, emerging countries can no longer be excluded. The study of all equilibrium exchange rates is delicate. First, the trade model has to be balanced at the aggregate level. This paper suggests a method to achieve world balance both in volume and in value. Second, the N-1 bilateral exchange rates cannot ensure that the N areas will reach their macroeconomic equilibrium simultaneously. This paper examines the existing solutions to solve the N-1 problem and proposes an alternative which minimizes the distance to the current-account targets. Finally, in order to compare the relevance of the different methodologies, FEERs are calculated for 19 industrialized and developing countries. Creation-Date: 2010-02 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2010/wp2010-02.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2010-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Elusive Impact of Investing Abroad for Japanese Parent Firms: Can Disaggregation According to FDI Motives Help? Author-Name: Laura Hering Author-Name: Tomohiko Inui Author-Name: Sandra Poncet Keywords: FDI;MULTINATIONALS;OFFSHORING;PROPENSITY SCORE MATCHING Classification-JEL:F14;F21;F23 Abstract: In the present paper, we investigate whether previous findings of limited effects of investing abroad on the firm’s performance can be explained by the aggregation of heterogeneous effects depending on the FDI motives, sectors and locations. Results suggest, in line with previous work, that on average Japanese outward FDI has limited effects (whether positive or negative) on the activity of internationalizing firms. Fears of “Hollowing out” effects seem to be more justified in the case of FDI to low income countries, for which a contraction of employment and investment and exports is observed. By contrast, we observe a significant positive employment effect for FDI in services, presumably reflecting the operational complementarities between the affiliate and the parent. There is also some evidence of positive labour productivity gains deriving essentially from FDI in manufacturing in high GDP countries. Creation-Date: 2010-01 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2010/wp2010-01.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2010-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Effects at Home of Initiating Production Abroad: Evidence from Matched French Firms Author-Name: Alexander Hijzen Author-Name: Sébastien Jean Author-Name: Thierry Mayer Keywords: FDI;MULTINATIONALS;PROPRENSITY SCORE MATCHING;SERVICES;DELOCALISATION Classification-JEL:F14;F21;F23 Abstract: Based on matching techniques in combination with a difference-in-difference estimator, this paper estimates the effects at home of initiating production abroad through the establishment of a foreign production affiliate. The analysis covers manufacturing and service firms active in France during the period 1987-1999. We show that the motivation to start producing abroad is an important determinant of its impact at home. Market-seeking FDI in manufacturing is associated with significant scale effects, resulting in job creation. By contrast, factor-seeking FDI in manufacturing has no significant effect on employment. However, there is some evidence that this type of FDI is associated with technology effects, in the form of greater capital-intensity and efficiency, as well as larger exports. Finally, FDI in service sectors is associated with significant positive employment effects, presumably reflecting the importance of the market-seeking motive in these sectors. Creation-Date: 2009-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-39.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-39 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: On Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Is Emerging Asia Different? Author-Name: Antonia López-Villavicencio Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Keywords: EQUILIBRIUM EXCHANGE RATES;MISALIGNMENS;PANEL SMOOTH TRANSITION MODELS;EMERGING ASIA Classification-JEL:F31;C23 Abstract: The aim of this paper is to provide equilibrium exchange rates values for a large set of currencies and to study the adjustment process of observed exchange rates towards these levels by paying a special attention to emerging Asian countries. Relying on panel smooth transition regression models, we show that the real exchange rate dynamics in the long run is nonlinear for emerging Asian countries, while it is linear for the G7 currencies. More especially, there exists an asymmetric behavior of the real exchange rate when facing an over or undervaluation in Asia: the adjustment speed is more important in case of undervaluation, a result that may be explained by the international pressure to limit undervaluations. However, this adjustment being long-lasting, undervaluations may persist over time, as observed since the beginning of the 1990s. Creation-Date: 2009-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-38.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-38 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Assessing Barriers to Trade in the Distribution and Telecom Sectors in Emerging Countries Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Cristina Mitaritonna Keywords: SERVICES;AD VALOREM EQUIVALENTS Classification-JEL:L80;F13 Abstract: We compute ad valorem equivalents (AVEs) for the regulation in three service sectors (i.e. fixed telecom, mobile telecom, distribution) applied by selected emerging countries. We start with qualitative information on the restrictions applied by each country in each sector on the basis of which we apply a multivariate statistical approach, to transform this qualitative data into a trade restrictiveness synthetic index (STRI). In a second stage we estimate the average impact of STRI on price cost margins, using a method avoiding the usual two-stage estimation. In the third stage, this impact is used to calculate the AVE of the STRI estimated in the first step. It is shown that the STRI has a significant effect on the price-cost margins of the individual firms only when controlled for Regional trade Agreements and exception to the MFN clause in the considered sector. Lastly, we compute tariff equivalents for the STRIs previously calculated using the estimated impact. More than half our AVEs are larger than 50% and one AVE out of six is above 100%. Creation-Date: 2009-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-37.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-37 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Les impacts économiques du changement climatique : enjeux de modélisation Author-Name: Pierre Besson Author-Name: Nina Kousnetzoff Keywords: Classification-JEL:Q54;Q32;Q43 Abstract: Large differences remain between various assessments of the economic impacts of climate change and of the cost of mitigation policies. These are partly due to a number of questionable assumptions in energy-economic modeling, originating in a value system one should be aware of. This study sets up a frame of reference to analyze the impact of modeling choices on the results. Energy-economic models are analyzed, with four examples: ENV-Linkages, GEMINI-E3, IMACLIM-R and POLES. Top-Down models do not catch enough technical progress potentials, whereas Bottom-Up models do not model satisfactorily the feedback effects of the energy sector on the rest of the economy. Recursive dynamic models do not take enough into account the agents’ expectations and cannot build normative scenarios. On the contrary, some hybrid models and all the intertemporal optimization models include an endogenization mechanism which confuses the results. We then analyze the consequences of theoretical differences between models on a practical case: the assessment of the economic value of carbone by GEMINI-E3, IMACLIM-R and POLES. The Stern Review is analyzed in the broader framework of economic growth-environment modelization. The differences in results with other “cost-benefit” models are due to incomplete knowledge of future damages, the choice of an actualization rate and the assessment of non-market damages. Creation-Date: 2009-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-36.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-36 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Trade, Foreign Inputs and Firms’ Decisions: Theory and Evidence Author-Name: Maria Bas Keywords: FIRM HETEROGENEITY;INPUT TRADE LIBERALIZATION;FOREIGN INTERMEDIATE GOODS;FIRM PRODUCTIVITY AND PLANT PANEL DATA Classification-JEL:F10;F12;F41 Abstract: We investigate the effect of different channels through which input trade liberalization affects firms’ export decisions. We develop a trade model with heterogeneous firms and sectors of varying imported input intensity that reproduces different mechanisms through which the access to foreign inputs affects the performance of domestic firms. In industries with lower input tariffs (or more intensive in imported intermediate goods), more firms become exporters and export larger volumes. The effect of firm productivity on export status and export sales is greater for firms producing in these industries. The export selection process is reinforced by the access to foreign inputs. We provide strong empirical evidence in support of these theoretical predictions based on plant-level panel data from Argentina (1992-2001) and Chile (1990-1999). Our findings suggest that the impact of firm productivity on the probability of exporting and on the volume of exports is more pronounced for firms producing in industries that have a greater access to foreign inputs. Creation-Date: 2009-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-35.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-35 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Export Sophistication and Economic Performance: Evidence from Chinese Provinces Author-Name: Joachim Jarreau Author-Name: Sandra Poncet Keywords: EXPORT SOPHISTICATION;ECONOMIC GROWTH;OUTWARD ORIENTATION;CHINA Classification-JEL:F1;O1;R1 Abstract: We consider the effect of export sophistication on economic performance using regional variations within a single country (China) over the period 1997-2007. We confirm Hausmann, Hwang and Rodrik (2007)’s prediction that regions that engage in the cost discovery process of developing sophisticated goods grasp greater gains from globalization and grow faster. We find that these gains are limited to to export activities undertaken by domestic entities. Direct gains do not appear to derive from foreign entities typically engaged in processing trade even though they are the main contributors to the global upgrading of China’s exports. Our findings globally suggest that the expected gains from exporting higher productivity goods are not unconditional, they are greater for provinces already blessed by high incomes, better market centrality and higher trade performance and Foreign Direct Investment attractiveness. These features consistent with evidence of increasing returns to sophistication are unfortunately likely to contribute further to the current widening of spatial economic disparities across China. Creation-Date: 2009-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-34.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-34 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Assessing the Sustainability of Credit Growth: the Case of Central and Eastern European Countries Author-Name: Virginie Coudert Author-Name: Cyril Pouvelle Keywords: CREDIT BOOM;TRANSITION;FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT Classification-JEL:E30;E51;G21 Abstract: Strong credit growth rates in transition countries may result from a normal catching-up process in a framework of financial development. However, as elsewhere, they can also pertain to a “credit boom”, paving the way to future “credit crunches”. We try to disentangle these two types of situation for the central and eastern European countries (CEECs) by applying a number of methods. First, we consider the gap between current credit and its longterm trend and we find some signs of credit booms, in several CEECs in 2005-2007. Second, we assess the “normal” growth of credit with regard to fundamentals through econometric estimations. Credit growth is also shown to have been excessive in several countries just before the 2008-2009 financial crisis. Creation-Date: 2009-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-33.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-33 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: How do Different Exporters React to Exchange Rate Changes? Theory, Empirics and Aggregate Implications Author-Name: Nicolas Berman Author-Name: Philippe Martin Author-Name: Thierry Mayer Keywords: GRAVITY;HETEROGENEITY;EXCHANGE RATE;TRADE Classification-JEL:F12 Abstract: This paper analyzes the reaction of exporters to exchange rate changes.We present a model where, in the presence of distribution costs in the export market, high and low productivity firms react differently to a depreciation. Whereas high productivity firms optimally raise their markup rather than the volume they export, low productivity firms choose the opposite strategy. Hence, pricing to market is both endogenous and heterogenous. This heterogeneity has important consequences for the aggregate impact of exchange rate movements. The presence of fixed costs to export means that only high productivity firms can export, firms which precisely react to an exchange rate depreciation by increasing their export price rather than their sales. We show that this selection effect can explain the weak impact of exchange rate movements on aggregate export volumes. We then test the main predictions of the model on a very rich French firm level data set with destination-specific export values and volumes on the period 1995-2005. Our results confirm that high performance firms react to a depreciation by increasing their export price rather than their export volume. The reverse is true for low productivity exporters. Pricing to market by exporters is also more pervasive in sectors and destination countries with higher distribution costs. Consistent with our theoretical framework, we show that the probability of firms to enter the export market following a depreciation increases. The extensive margin response to exchange rate changes is modest at the aggregate level because firms that enter, following a depreciation, are smaller relative to existing firms. Creation-Date: 2009-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-32.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-32 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Spillovers from Multinationals to Heterogeneous Domestic Firms: Evidence from Hungary Author-Name: Gábor Békés Author-Name: Jörn Kleinert Author-Name: Farid Toubal Keywords: FDI;Multinationals;Productivity;Spillover;Quantile regression;Hungary Classification-JEL:F23;D21;D24;R12;R30 Abstract: Technological and informational spillovers from multinational firms can be particularly beneficial to domestic firms especially in less developed economies. The technological superiority and management experience of foreign multinational firms yield various opportunities for learning. Yet, the importance of foreign firm’s spillovers might vary with respect to the different intensities of the linkage between the multinational and the domestic firm, the differences in firms’ absorptive capacity and their ability to face competition. We show using firm-level Hungarian data that positive spillovers from multinationals depend on the level of productivity and the exporting status of the domestic firm. Larger and more productive firms are more able to reap spillovers from multinationals than smaller and less productive firms. The export status, in contrast, is of minor importance. Creation-Date: 2009-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-31.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-31 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Ethnic Networks, Information, and International Trade: Revisiting the Evidence Author-Name: Gabriel J. Felbermayr Author-Name: Benjamin Jung Author-Name: Farid Toubal Keywords: Gravity model;International Trade;Network Effects;International Migration Classification-JEL:F12;F22 Abstract: Influential empirical work by Rauch and Trindade (REStat, 2002) finds that Chinese ethnic networks of the magnitude observed in Southeast Asia increase bilateral trade by at least 60%. We argue that this estimate is upward biased due to omitted variable bias. Moreover, it is partly related to a preference effect rather than to enforcement and/or the availability of information. Applying a theory-based gravity model to ethnicity data for 1980 and 1990, and focusing on pure network effects, we find that the Chinese network leads to a more modest amount of trade creation of about 15%. Using new data on bilateral stocks of migrants from the World Bank for the year of 2000, we extend the analysis to all potential ethnic networks. We find, i.a., evidence for a Polish, a Turkish, a Mexican, or a Pakistani network. While confirming the existence of a Chinese network, its trade creating potential is dwarfed by other ethnic networks. The large heterogeneity in the trade-creating potential of different networks is, among other things, explained by the share of high-skilled immigrants, the degree of ethnic fragmentation, and GDP per capita. Creation-Date: 2009-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-30.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-30 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Financial Constraints in China: Firm-Level Evidence Author-Name: Sandra Poncet Author-Name: Walter Steingress Author-Name: Hylke Vandenbussche Keywords: Investment-cashflow sensitivity;CHINA;FIRM LEVEL DATA;FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT Classification-JEL:E22;G32 Abstract: This paper uses a unique micro-level data-set over the period 1998-2005 on Chinese firms to test for the existence of a "political-pecking order" in the allocation of credit. Our findings are threefold. Firstly, private Chinese firms are credit constrained while State-owned firms and foreign-owned firms in China are not; Secondly, the geographical and sectoral presence of foreign capital alleviates credit constraints faced by private Chinese firms. Thirdly, geographical and sectoral presence of state firms aggravates financial constraints for private Chinese firms (“crowding out”). Therefore it seems that ongoing restructuring of the state-owned sector and further liberalization of foreign capital inflows in China can help to circumvent financial constraints and can boost the investment of private firms. Creation-Date: 2009-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-29.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-29 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Crisis: Policy Lessons and Policy Challenges Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Benoît Coeuré Author-Name: Pierre Jacquet Author-Name: Jean Pisani-Ferry Keywords: GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS;ECONOMIC POLICY;FINANCIAL REGULATION;BLACK SWAN;CRISIS Classification-JEL:E50;E6;F02;F36;G18 Abstract: We review the competing explanations of the 2007-2008 global crisis, recall how governments around the world had to depart from established policy stances, and reflect on the legacy of the crisis both in terms of future challenges and changes in policy doctrine. The G-20 has addressed important regulatory and macro-financial dimensions of the crisis, but it has left difficult questions unanswered. We review some of these incoming challenges such as moral hazard in the post-bail-out world, the trade-off between financial stability and the cost of capital, the feasibility for central banks to manage their new financial stability mandate, and the effectiveness of peer review to address global imbalances. Creation-Date: 2009-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-28.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-28 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Commerce et flux financiers internationaux : MIRAGE-D Author-Name: André Lemelin Keywords: Classification-JEL:C68;D58;F17;F37;G11 Abstract: MIRAGE-D is a version of MIRAGE which has been modified to take into account the implications of international trade on countries’ international investment positions (IIPs). Each country or group of countries is represented in the model by a single economic agent, who distributes its wealth among assets following a three-stage portfolio allocation model. MIRAGE-D also proposes a mechanism for distributing investments among industries and countries along the lines of Tobin’s « q » theory, which is different from MIRAGE’s gravity rationale. The comparison between MIRAGE and MIRAGE-D shows that differences in the results are moderate, but nonetheless significant. Creation-Date: 2009-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-27.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-27 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Oil Prices, Geography and Endogenous Regionalism: Too Much Ado About (Almost) Nothing Author-Name: Daniel Mirza Author-Name: Habib Zitouna Keywords: REGIONALISM;OIL PRICES;GEOGRAPHY;TRANSPORT Classification-JEL:F15;F19;F20;L91 Abstract: This paper studies the effect of oil prices on the geography of international trade. We model transport costs as a function of variable and fixed costs. By affecting the first cost component, oil prices can then modify the structure of transportation costs across partners. This, we argue, acts as a factor of distortion in relative prices, thereby creating a reallocation of trade at the expense of remote countries. In that respect, an increase in oil prices should favor regionalism. Creation-Date: 2009-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-26.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-26 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: EU15 Trade with Emerging Economies and Rentier States: Leveraging Geography Author-Name: Guillaume Gaulier Author-Name: Françoise Lemoine Author-Name: Deniz Ünal Keywords: TRADE;EMERGING ECONOMIES;RENTIER STATES;EUROPEAN UNION;EXPORT PRICES Classification-JEL:F1;F14;F5 Abstract: During the past ten years, the emerging economies, exporters of manufactured products or services, and the rentier states, exporters of primary products, have eroded the dominant position of the developed countries in world markets. The EU15 has lost less ground than the US or Japan. The EU15 has taken advantage of its geographical location to enhance its exports to the emerging and rentier countries located in Europe & Periphery. Regional integration has also favoured the upgrading of the EU15 imports from its emerging neighbours. The EU15 trade with emerging markets in Asia have strengthened the latter’s specialisation in high-technology products at low price, and the EU15 specialisation in hightechnology and high-quality products. Creation-Date: 2009-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-25.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-25 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Market Potential and Development Author-Name: Thierry Mayer Keywords: MARKET POTENTIAL;ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY;GRAVITY;DEVELOPMENT Classification-JEL:F12 Abstract: This paper provides evidence on the long-term impact of market potential on economic development. It derives from the New Economic Geography literature a structural stimation where the level of factors’ income of a country is related to its export capacity, labeled Market Access (MA) by Redding and Venables (2004), or Real Market Potential (RMP) by Head and Mayer (2004). The empirical part evaluates this market potential for all countries in the world with available trade data over the 1960-2003 period and relates it to income per capita. Overall results show that market potential is a powerful driver of increases in income per capita. Creation-Date: 2009-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-24.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-24 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Immigration, Income and Productivity of Host Countries: a Channel Accounting Approach Author-Name: Mariya Aleksynska Author-Name: Ahmed Tritah Keywords: INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION;PRODUCTIVITY;INCOME;EMPLOYMENT;INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLE;CHANNEL ACCOUNTING Classification-JEL:F22;J24;J31;O31 Abstract: This paper investigates the contribution of immigration to income and productivity of host countries. Using a dataset constructed from census data and labor force surveys for 20 OECD countries in the period from 1960 to 2005, we explore the information on age and educational attainment of immigrants to assess the contribution of immigration to income components: changes in physical capital, human capital, employment, and total factor productivity. We combine level accounting approach with panel income regressions, and also account for the endogeneity of migration choices to productivity shocks. Our main findings are that, overall, higher shares of immigrants over natives have a positive effect on income and productivity of their host countries. Under the assumption that older immigrants are also the ones with the longest duration of stay, this effect is due to the long run changes in TFP, and is robust to educational disparities between immigrants and natives. The decomposition by age and education suggests that only unskilled immigrants have a non-neutral impact on income and productivity, which is negative in the short run but positive, and larger in magnitude, in the long run. We also find a dispersed impact of the presence of other immigrant groups on some income channels. Creation-Date: 2009-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-23.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-23 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: A Picture of Tariff Protection Across the World in 2004 MAcMap-HS6, Version 2 Author-Name: Houssein Guimbard Author-Name: David Laborde Debucquet Author-Name: Cristina Mitaritonna Keywords: Trade policies;Tariffs;Database;Ad valorem equivalent;WORLD TRADE Classification-JEL:F13 Abstract: MAcMap-HS6v2 is a comprehensive database providing detailed protection data at the 6 digit level of the harmonized system (HS6), i.e. more than 5000 products, for the year 2004. It includes ad valorem equivalents on MFN tariffs for 169 importing countries, as well as bilateral applied protection, together with preferential provisions for 220 partners. Specific and compound tariffs and tariff rate quotasdata are also provided, at the same level of detail. In this paper we present the methodology used for building this new database, paying attention to the consequences from such choices. We then provide evidence on the world applied protection in 2004. Finally we investigate variations in tariffs occurred between 2001 and 2004. Creation-Date: 2009-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-22.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-22 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Spatial Price Discrimination in International Markets Author-Name: Julien Martin Keywords: Spatial price discrimination;Export prices;Distance;Firm level data Classification-JEL:F10;F14;L11 Abstract: This paper presents a theoretical discussion and an empirical investigation of the impact of distance on the spatial pricing policy of exporting firms. The theoretical part points out the importance of transport costs formulation to determine how distance impacts fob prices. Assuming additive or iceberg transport costs might imply opposite predictions concerning this relationship. The empirical analysis is based on French export data providing us with bilateral export unit values at the firm and product level. The main empirical result is that French exporters set higher prices toward the more remote markets. This finding goes against the predictions of the main models of international trade (with or without quality) predicting either a nil or a negative impact of distance on prices at the firm level. It also questions the use of iceberg transport costs. A way to reconcile theory with the data is to introduce additive transport costs. Creation-Date: 2009-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-21.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-21 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Is Russia Sick with the Dutch Disease? Author-Name: Victoria Dobrynskaya Author-Name: Edouard Turkish Keywords: RUSSIA;DUTCH DISEASE;COMPETITIVENESS;MONETARY POLICY Classification-JEL:E23;E58;F43;P24 Abstract: Despite impressive economic growth between 1999 and 2007, there is a fear that Russia may suffer the Dutch disease, which predicts that a country with large natural resource rents may experience a de-industrialisation and a lower long term economic growth. We study whether there are symptoms of the Dutch disease in Russia. Using Rosstat and CHELEM databases, we analyse the trends in production, wages and employment in the Russian manufacturing industries, and we study the behaviour of Russian imports and exports. We find that, while Russia exhibited some symptoms of the Dutch disease, e.g. a real appreciation of the rouble, a rise in real wages, a decrease in employment in manufacturing industries and the development of the services sector, manufacturing production nonetheless increased, contradicting the theory of the Dutch disease. These trends can be explained by the gains in productivity and the recovery after the disorganisation in the 1990s, by new market opportunities for Russian products in the European Union and in CIS countries, by a growing Chinese demand for some products and by a booming internal market. Finally, investments in many manufacturing industries were largely encouraged, whereas those in the energy sector were strongly regulated, which contributed to economic diversification. Creation-Date: 2009-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-20.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Economies d'agglomération à l'exportation et difficulté d'accès aux marchés Author-Name: Pamina Koenig Author-Name: Florian Mayneris Author-Name: Sandra Poncet Keywords: Classification-JEL:F1;R12;L25 Abstract: The empirical literature in international trade emphasizes the existence of export spillovers. The agglomeration of local exporters is found to have a positive impact on the probability that other neighbouring firms start exporting. In this paper we go further into this question and investigate the heterogeneity of this effect depending on firms’ characteristics and on different indicators measuring the accessibility of destination countries (time and number of documents necessary to export to the country, weighted demand and riskiness). Our results show that an increase in the number of neighboring exporters has a greater impact on the probability that a firm starts exporting when the targeted country is riskier, is characterised by a lower weighted demand and imposes numerous and costly administrative formalities for foreign exporters. Creation-Date: 2009-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-19.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Local Export Spillovers in France Author-Name: Pamina Koenig Author-Name: Florian Mayneris Author-Name: Sandra Poncet Keywords: FIRM LEVEL EXPORT DATA;PRODUCT AND DESTINATION SPECIFIC SPILLOVERS;AGGLOMERATION Classification-JEL:F1;R12;L25 Abstract: This paper investigates the presence of local export spillovers on both the extensive (the decision to start exporting) and the intensive (the export volume) margins of trade, using data on French individual export flows, at the product-level and by destination country, between 1998 and 2003. We investigate whether the individual decision to start exporting and exported volume are influenced by the presence of nearby product and/or destination specific exporters, using a gravity-type equation estimated at the firmlevel. Spillovers are considered at a fine geographical level corresponding to employment areas (348 in France). We control for the new economic geography-type selection of firms into agglomerated areas, and for the local price effects of firms agglomeration. Results show evidence of the presence of export spillovers on the export decision but not on the exported volume. We interpret this as a first evidence of export spillovers acting through the fixed rather than the variable cost. Spillovers on the decision to start exporting are stronger when specific, by product and destination, and are not significant when considered on all products-all destinations. Moreover, export spillovers exhibit a spatial decay within France: the effect of other exporting firms on the export decision is stronger within employment areas and declines with distance. Creation-Date: 2009-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-18.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Currency Misalignments and Growth: a New Look Using Nonlinear Panel Data Methods Author-Name: Sophie Béreau Author-Name: Antonia Lopez Villavicencio Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Keywords: GROWTH;EXCHANGE RATE MISALIGNMENTS;NONLINEARITY;PSTR MODELS Classification-JEL:F31;O47;C23 Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate the link between currency misalignments and economic growth. Relying on panel cointegration techniques, we calculate real exchange rate (RER) misalignments as deviations of actual RERs from their equilibrium values for a set of advanced and emerging economies. Estimating panel smooth transition regression models, we show that RER misalignments have a differentiated impact on economic growth depending on their sign: whereas overvaluations negatively affect economic growth, real exchange rate undervaluations significantly enhance it. This result indicates that undervaluations may drive the exchange rate to a level that encourages exports and promotes growth. Creation-Date: 2009-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-17.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Trade Impact of European Measures on GMOs Condemned by the WTO Panel Author-Name: Anne-Célia Disdier Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Keywords: GMOs;Protection;WTO panels;Environment;WORLD TRADE Classification-JEL:F13;F18 Abstract: In May 2003, the United States, Canada and Argentina launched a World Trade Organization (WTO) case against the European Union concerning its authorization regime for biotech products. In November 2006, the WTO condemned this regime. Using a gravity equation, we estimate the reduction in exports of potentially affected products from the complainants to the European Union. Our results suggest that the European moratorium and product-specific measures have a negative effect on trade, as do safeguard measures adopted by Germany, Italy and Greece. Creation-Date: 2009-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-16.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Economic Crisis and Global Supply Chains Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Yvan Decreux Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: David Khoudour-Castéras Keywords: INTERNATIONAL TRADE;CRISIS;CGEM;global supply chains;GLOBAL CRISIS Classification-JEL:F10;C68;F17;F43 Abstract: Much attention has been paid to the sharp fall in world trade associated with the economic crisis during the last quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009. Alarming forecasts have been published for the whole year of 2009 and several explanations have been offered. In particular, beyond the credit crunch and the global drop in demand, it has been argued that, due to globalisation and the fragmentation of supply chains, world trade will inevitably overshoot the shock in world GDP. We contest this view using both simple accounting calculations and a simulation of the multi-region, multi-sector Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, which explicitly models input-output relations within and between sectors. Using the CGE MIRAGE, we ask whether the most recent forecasts of GDP change, together with a twist in the composition of demand (to the detriment of capital goods), a halt in the trend towards the reduction in trade costs and a collapse in the oil price can replicate a very similar multiplier effect on world trade to that currently being experienced. Firstly, we find that, when trade flows are deflated by the price of the world GDP, the order of magnitude for trade decline in 2009 is 8.9 percent in our exercise. However, when trade flows are deflated by the sector-specific trade prices computed by the model, the drop in world trade is much more limited (-2.4 percent). Hence a large part of the fall in trade predicted by the model comes from a relative price effect. Secondly, while this fall is still more than the –1.3% drop in world GDP forecast by the IMF in April 2009, even this magnification effect disappears when GDPs are aggregated using current exchange rates, which is the appropriate reference, rather than PPP weights. Thirdly, while, our paper does not support the hypothesis of a systematic over-shooting of trade due to globalisation and the fragmentation of supply chains, it seems likely that additional factors such as the credit shortage must have played a role in the short run to explain the sharp fall in world trade. Creation-Date: 2009-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-15.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Quality Sorting and Trade: Firm-Level Evidence for French Wine Author-Name: Matthieu Crozet Author-Name: Keith Head Author-Name: Thierry Mayer Keywords: GRAVITY MODEL;HETEROGENEITY;QUALITY;INTERNATIONAL TRADE Classification-JEL:F12;F14;F17;L11;L15 Abstract: Firm-level regressions show that Champagne producers that receive better ratings from wine guides also export to more markets, charge higher prices, and sell more in each market. Our method corrects for a severe selection bias predicted by the model. By using direct measures of quality, we can recover estimates of parameters from a Melitz-based model of heterogeneous firms. We then regress averages of the quality, price, and quantity shipped to a country on measures of its attractiveness and entry costs. Champagne exhibits quality-sorting: more attractive markets tend to have lower average qualities and prices, but higher quantities. Creation-Date: 2009-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-14.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: New Evidence on the Effectiveness of Europe's Fiscal Restrictions Author-Name: Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro Keywords: Fiscal restrictions;panel data;Maastricht Treaty;stability and growth pact Classification-JEL:C33;E62;E65;H62 Abstract: This paper investigates the past effectiveness of the Maastricht Treaty (MT) and Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) in disciplining fiscal policy in the Euro zone. We estimate fiscal reaction functions for a panel of 11 members of the Euro zone including the more recent period of the reformed SGP, and compare them with fiscal responses from other “industrialized” OECD countries. Our main finding is that in contrast with the MT, the SGP has been ineffective in tackling excessive deficits in the Euro zone. Moreover, it has also not induced a countercyclical behavior of the fiscal authorities in the region. These results evince the need for reforms in Europe’s fiscal restrictions in order to restore their credibility. Creation-Date: 2009-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-13.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Remittances, Capital Flows and Financial Development during the Mass Migration Period, 1870-1913 Author-Name: Rui Esteves Author-Name: David Khoudour-Castéras Keywords: International migration;remittances;financial development Classification-JEL:F24;N13;O16 Abstract: This paper addresses the question whether the substantial financial flows received by emigration countries in the four decades running up to World War I contributed to domestic financial development in peripheral Europe. We quantify a sizable and significant relation between remittances and measures of development of the financial sector that is both larger than the contribution of other international capital flows and than the best estimates of the same relation in our days. Given that financial development is regularly included among the conditions for economic growth and catch up of developing nations, this paper adds to our understanding of the multiple impacts of the mass migration phenomenon on the economies of emigration countries. Creation-Date: 2009-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-12.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Evolution of EU and its Member States' Competitiveness in International Trade Author-Name: Louise Curran Author-Name: Soledad Zignago Keywords: EU;COMPETITIVENESS;EXPORT PRICES Classification-JEL:O52;F15;F14 Abstract: After a long period of domination by the industrialised countries of the North, international trade is today driven by the dynamism of developing countries. This work seeks to analyse how the EU is performing in the light of this emerging competitive threat, by comparing the EU’s export performance on the world market with that of its key competitors between 1995 and 2004. The figures show that the EU has performed particularly well in the more upmarket, expensive and high tech levels of the market. Most notably, Europe is the market leader in up-market products, with almost 31% of the world market in 2004 (versus 20% of the market for all goods). In addition, there is evidence that the EU’s recent enlargement has helped it to maintain a strong performance, thanks to an increasing division of labour within the region. The new member states have become important suppliers of intermediate goods to key EU producers, and in particular German firms, thus becoming increasingly vital to EU competitiveness. Creation-Date: 2009-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-11.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Exchange-Rate Misalignments in Duopoly: the Case of Airbus and Boeing Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Horst Raff Keywords: Exchange-rate pass-through;duopoly;aircraft industry Classification-JEL:F31;D43;L11;L62 Abstract: We examine the effect of exchange-rate misalignments on competition in the market for large commercial aircraft. This market is a duopoly where players compete in dollar-denominated prices while one of them, Airbus, incurs costs mostly in euros. We construct and calibrate a simulation model to investigate how companies adjust their prices to deal with the effects of a temporary misalignment, and how this affects profit margins and volumes. We also explore the effects on the long-run dynamics of competition. We conclude that, due to the duopolistic nature of the aircraft market, Airbus will pass only a small part of the exchange-rate fluctuations on to customers through higher prices. Moreover, due to features specific to the aircraft industry, such as customer switching costs and learning-by-doing, even a temporary departure of the exchange rate from its long-run equilibrium level may have permanent effects on the industry. Creation-Date: 2009-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-10.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Market Positioning of Varieties in World Trade: is Latin America Losing Out on Asia? Author-Name: Nanno Mulder Author-Name: Rodrigo Paiilacar Author-Name: Soledad Zignago Keywords: Export unit values;vertical differentiation;Latin America;Asia Classification-JEL:F10;F40 Abstract: There is increasing empirical evidence that trade specialisation and competition takes place in varieties rather than in products or industries. This paper examines recent changes in the export specialisation of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and their Asian competitors by looking at their vertical specialisation through prices. Three price (or quality) segments are distinguished to compare export performance between the two regions using our BACI database, which provides harmonised bilateral unit values for most countries in the world at the most disaggregated product-level (5,000 products) for the period 1995 to 2004. The technology-content of products is also taken into account. The evidence suggests that LAC is losing out on China which is gaining large market shares, notably in the low-quality segment and low-tech segment. However, LAC has retained its initial overall market share, by slightly upgrading the quality and technology content of its exports. Our estimates of similarities in export structures confirm that varieties exported by the two continents are very different. Moreover, LAC export prices are much higher than those of China, but relatively similar to the ones of other Asian nations. Finally, we analyse the determinants of unit values of Latin American and Asian exports. Econometric tests confirm that the type of global competition differs between the two regions: prices play a bigger role in the case of Asian exports, whereas Latin America competes more on quality in world markets. Creation-Date: 2009-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-09.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-09 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Dollar in the Turmoil Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Sophie Béreau Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Keywords: Equilibrium exchange rate;US dollar;Global imbalances;Crisis;Valuation effects Classification-JEL:F31;C23 Abstract: We study the impact of the global financial crisis on the equilibrium exchange rate of the US dollar. We first simulate the impact of the crisis on the US net foreign asset position. Then, we calculate the equilibrium value of the dollar according both to a BEER and to a FEER approach. We find the case for a strong, although temporary, depreciation of the dollar even more acute than before the crisis. This suggests that the strength of the dollar in late 2008 and early 2009 may be short-lived. Creation-Date: 2009-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-08.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-08 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Term of Trade Shocks in a Monetary Union: an Application to West-Africa Author-Name: Loïc Batté Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Benjamin Carton Author-Name: Gilles Dufrénot Keywords: Dutch disease;DSGE;Monetary union;Optimal monetary policy Classification-JEL:E52;F41;Q33 Abstract: We propose a two-country DSGE model of the Dutch disease in a monetary union, calibrated on Nigeria and WAEMU. Three monetary regimes are successively studied at the union level: a flexible exchange rate with constant money supply, a flexible exchange rate with an accommodating monetary policy, and a fixed exchange rate regime. We find that, in the face of oil shocks, the most stabilizing regime for Nigeria is a fixed money supply whereas it is a fixed exchange rate for WAEMU. However, the introduction of an oil stabilization fund can reduce the disagreement on the common policy rule. Furthermore, the two zones may agree on a fixed money-supply rule in the face of both oil and agricultural price shocks. Creation-Date: 2009-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-07.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-07 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Macroeconomic Consequences of Global Endogenous Migration: a General Equilibrium Analysis Author-Name: Vladimir Borgy Author-Name: Xavier Chojnicki Author-Name: Gilles Le Garrec Author-Name: Cyrille Schwellnus Keywords: CGEM;Migration;International capital flows Classification-JEL:F21;C68;J61;H55 Abstract: In this paper, we analyze the demographic and economic consequences of endogenous migrations flows over the coming decades in a multi-regions overlapping generations general equilibrium model (INGENUE 2) in which the world is divided in ten regions. Our analysis offers a global perspective on the consequences of international migration flows. The value-added of the INGENUE 2 model is that it enables us to analyze the effects of international migration on both the destination and the origin regions. A further innovation of our analysis is that international migration is treated as endogenous. In a first step, we estimate the determinants of migration in an econometric model. We show, in particular, that the income differential is one of the key variables explaining migration flows. In a second step, we endogenize migration flows in the INGENUE 2 model. In order to do so, we use the econometrically estimated relationships between demographic and income developments in the INGENUE model, which enables us to project long-run migration flows and to improve on projections of purely demographic models. Creation-Date: 2009-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-06.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-06 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Equivalence entre taxation et permis d'émission échangeables Author-Name: Pierre Villa Keywords: Classification-JEL:E61;E62 Abstract: The paper deals with the equivalence between taxation and emission permits according to different viewpoints: the first one sets prices, the second one quantities. But equivalence is more formal than substantial: taxation is the generating fact, the market of permits does not exist spontaneously. Its price is unstable because supply is not independent from demand. It is manipulatable either ex ante when free allowances are allocated or ex post during the period of compliance through Walrasian tatonnement. A real economic determination of prices exists only when there are unit taxes or penalties on emissions exceeding the quotas. In order to avoid these drawbacks, pay-as-bid auctions must be used and free allowances avoided. Taxation or the price of emission permits are the real option value of changing techniques. An assignment rule is proposed : taxes are assigned to reduce average emissions and permits to reduce marginal emissions. In order to transform the cost into a real change of techniques, it is necessary to finance the sector of research and development of an amount greater than the taxes levied on pollution, which serve at paying the rent of innovation. These extra subsidies are used to move factors of production as capital from industry towards the innovation sector. The tax equivalence is ternary and concerns the taxes on pollution, capital and energy, because extracting fossil fuels is similar as innovation. Decentralization through market schemes induces that depollution has a marketable cost. Creation-Date: 2009-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-05.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Trade-Growth Nexus in the Developing Countries: a Quantile Regression Approach Author-Name: Gilles Dufrénot Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Author-Name: Charalambos Tsangarides Keywords: Quantile regression;Growth-trade nexus;Developing countries Classification-JEL:C23;F13;O11 Abstract: This paper applies quantile regression techniques to investigate how the impact of trade openness on the growth rate of per capita income varies with the conditional distribution of growth. Using formal robustness analyses, we first identify robust variables affecting economic growth (investment, government balance, terms of trade, inflation, and population growth) which we then use as controls in the quantile regression estimations. Our findings suggest a heterogeneous trade-growth nexus: for both the long-run and the short-run, the effect of openness on growth is higher in countries with low growth rates compared to those of high growth rates. Our results cast doubt on earlier literature that finds little effect of openness on growth, and suggest that the implications of parameter heterogeneity in the openness-growth relationship need to be considered before prescribing policies. Creation-Date: 2009-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-04.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Price Convergence in the European Union: Within Firms or Composition of Firms? Author-Name: Isabelle Méjean Author-Name: Cyrille Schwellnus Keywords: Price convergence;Firms heterogeneity;European integration Classification-JEL:F12;F33;F40 Abstract: In this paper we use data on French export prices at the disaggregated firm and product level to evaluate the effect of economic integration on price convergence. We use the European integration ‘experiment’ and firm-level data on export prices to distinguish between two possible margins of adjustment: At the intensive margin economic integration induces different pricing strategies within the firm, whereas at the extensive margin it affects the composition of firms with different pricing strategies. In our sample price convergence is 40 percent faster in the European Union than in an appropriately defined control group. 30 percent of this effect can be attributed to the fact that a higher share of firms with a low propensity to price discriminate serve European markets. Creation-Date: 2009-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-03.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Productivité du travail : les divergences entre pays développés sont-elles durables Author-Name: Clément Bosquet Author-Name: Michel Fouquin Keywords: Classification-JEL:J21;J24;O30;O47 Abstract: Between 1950 and 1973, a process of absolute convergence was at work between the technological leader, the USA, West European countries and Japan. The catching up process between developed countries gradually vanished between 1973 and 1995. On the one hand, we had a revival of US labour productivity growth while, on the other hand most, European countries and Japan have registered a steep decline in their productivity. This paper nvestigates the source of these diverging trends. First we use an econometric test developed by Bai and Perron in order to find and measure breaks in productivity trends over the long term. It appears that although technological change played an important role in the US revival between 1995 and 2001 it is the low increase in employment between 2001 and 2007 than explains the continuing rise in productivity. The technological factor does not contribute either to explain the growth rate decline in other developed countries. Even if they were lagging behind the US in investing in these new technologies they had considerably increased their efforts. One crucial element in explaining these diverging trends is the change in the labour content of growth both in the US where it is declining and in most European countries where it increases. This article uses various data bases in order to find out the time and frequency in productivity trend breaks both at the macro-economic level and at the sectoral level. The most up to date data for 2008 tend to confirm our diagnosis of divergence. Creation-Date: 2009-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-02.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: From Various Degrees of Trade to Various Degrees of Financial Integration: What do Interest Rates Have to Say? Author-Name: Adeline Bachellerie Author-Name: Jérôme Héricourt Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Keywords: FINANCIAL INTEGRATION;TRADE INTEGRATION;REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENT;TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES;REAL INTEREST RATE PARITY Classification-JEL:C22;E43;F15 Abstract: This paper proposes a systematic study of the degree of financial integration following the degree of trade integration according to Balassa’s (1961) classification, from preferential trading area to complete economic integration. To this end, we exploit all the information contained in interest rates and rely on the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates and real interest rate parity. These two conditions are empirically investigated on various regional trade agreements, using cointegration techniques by paying a special attention to potential breaks. Our results show that customs unions, corresponding to step 3 of the Balassa’s classification, seem to be a decisive threshold after which financial integration robustly takes place. Creation-Date: 2009-01 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-01.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Do Terms of Trade Drive Real Exchange Rates? Comparing Oil and Commodity Currencies Author-Name: Virginie Coudert Author-Name: Cécile Couharde Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Keywords: Commodities;Oil;Terms of trade;Equilibrium real exchange rates;Anchor currencies;Panel cointegration Classification-JEL:C23;F31;O13 Abstract: This paper investigates whether terms of trade have an impact on real exchange rates for commodity exporters and oil exporters. To this end, we estimate a long term relationship between the real effective exchange rate and economic fundamentals, including the commodity terms of trade. The estimation relies on panel cointegration techniques and covers annual data from 1980 to 2007. Our results show that real exchange rates co-move with commodity prices in the long run and respond to oil price somewhat less than to commodity prices. We also find that some pegged currencies have been driven away from their equilibria by wild fluctuations in the key currencies, on which they are anchored. Creation-Date: 2008-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2008/wp2008-32.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-32 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Vietnam's Accession to the WTO: Ex-Post Evaluation in a Dynamic Perspective Author-Name: Houssein Guimbard Author-Name: Hugo Valin Keywords: Computable General Equilibrium Models;Trade policy;World trade organisation;Vietnam Classification-JEL:D58;F13;F15 Abstract: Vietnam’s accession to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) on January 11, 2007 has represented the outcome of decades of efforts to modernise its economy. In this paper, we propose a new general equilibrium assessment of Vietnam’s accession to WTO using a dynamic approach and benefiting from the ex-post perspective offered one year after the membership acceptation. We rely on a dynamic global model incorporating duty-drawbacks and taking into account tariff changes at the HS6 level. A particular attention is paid on the sensitivity to dynamics assumptions and labour market closure. Our results show that gains for Vietnam linked to WTO accession are positive for trade in merchandises, but highly dependent on the evolution of textile and apparel sectors, whose exports were boosted by the commitments. Creation-Date: 2008-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2008/wp2008-31.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-31 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Structural Gravity Equations with Intensive and Extensive Margins Author-Name: Matthieu Crozet Author-Name: Pamina Koenig Keywords: Gravity equations;International trade;Firm heterogeneity Classification-JEL:F12 Abstract: Recent trade models with heterogenous firms have considerable consequences on the interpretation of gravity equations. Chaney (2008) shows that the effect of distance on trade margins incorporates three parameters: the elasticity of substitution between goods, the elasticity of trade costs with respect to distance, and the degree of firm heterogeneity. We structurally estimate the parameters of trade flows in Chaney’s model using French firm-level export data for 1986-1992, and controlling for the fixed costs of exporting. Our estimated parameters are consistent, for 27 out of 34 industries, with the theoretical model. They also allow us to evaluate the effects of transport cost separately from the effects of tarifs, without having to resort to detailed data on trade frictions. Creation-Date: 2008-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2008/wp2008-30.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-30 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Trade Prices and the Euro Author-Name: Julien Martin Author-Name: Isabelle Méjean Keywords: International trade;International trade prices;European monetary integration Classification-JEL:F12;F15 Abstract: This paper describes the impact of the Euro on i) the level, ii) the evolution and iii) the dispersion of trade prices. This empirical analysis relies on firm level data about French exports over the period 1995-2005. We find that the elimination of exchange rate fluctuations reduces the pricing to market behavior of French exporters. At the beginning of the EMU, we also observe an increase in aggregate prices for sales in the Euro zone. This price increase does not compensate for the aggregate price gap between cheaper EMU markets and more expensive non-EMU countries. Last we find that the Euro has affected firms’ pricing strategies leading to a reduction of the price dispersion inside the Euro zone. Creation-Date: 2008-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2008/wp2008-29.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-29 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Commerce international et transports : tendances du passe et prospective 2020 Author-Name: Christophe Gouel Author-Name: Nina Kousnetzoff Author-Name: Hassan Salman Keywords: Classification-JEL:D58;F12;H23 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2008-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2008/wp2008-28.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-28 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Erosion of Colonial Trade Linkages after Independence Author-Name: Thierry Mayer Author-Name: Keith Head Author-Name: John Ries Keywords: Colonies;Gravity;Trade Classification-JEL:F15 Abstract: The majority of independent nations today were part of empires in 1945. Using bilateral trade data from 1948 to 2006, we examine the effect of independence on post-colonial trade. On average, there is little short run effect of trade with the colonizer (metropole). However, after three decades trade declines more than 60%. We also find that trade between former colonies of the same empire erodes as much as trade with the metropole, whereas trade with third countries exhibits small and unsystematic changes after independence. Hostile separations lead to larger and more immediate reductions. Trade deterioration over extended time periods suggests the depreciation of some form of trading capital such as business networks or institutions. Creation-Date: 2008-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2008/wp2008-27.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-27 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Plus grandes, plus fortes, plus loin... Performances relatives des firmes exportatrices françaises Author-Name: Matthieu Crozet Author-Name: Isabelle Méjean Author-Name: Soledad Zignago Keywords: Exporting firms;Productivity;Competitiveness Classification-JEL:F1;D24 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2008-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2008/wp2008-26.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-26 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: A General Equilibrium Evaluation of the Sustainability of the New Pension Reforms in Italy Author-Name: Riccardo Magnani Keywords: Pension reforms;Applied OLG models;Immigration;Endogenous growth Classification-JEL:D58;H55;J10 Abstract: Most European countries have recently introduced pension system reforms to face the financial problem related to population ageing. Italy is not an exception. The reforms introduced during the Nineties (Amato Reform in 1992 and Dini Reform in 1995), even if they will produce a strong reduction in pension benefits, are generally thought not sufficient to adequately face the population ageing problem. For this reason, in 2004, the Berlusconi government introduced a new reform that increases the retirement age to 60 years from January 2008 onwards, to 61 years from 2010 and to 62 from 2014. In 2007, the left-wing government replaced this reform with a softer one that fixes the minimum retirement age at 58 from 2008. Using an applied overlapping-generations general equilibrium model, we analyze the impact of the new reforms on the macroeconomic system and in particular on the long-run sustainability of the pension system. We show that the increase in the retirement age would permit to reduce pension deficits in the short and medium run, while in the long run these reforms would become ineffective. Creation-Date: 2008-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2008/wp2008-25.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-25 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Location of Japanese MNC Affiliates: Agglomeration, Spillovers and Firm Heterogeneity Author-Name: Tomohiko Inui Author-Name: Toshiyuki Matsuura Author-Name: Sandra Poncet Keywords: Location choice;Multinational firms;Conditional logit model Classification-JEL:F12;F15 Abstract: We examine the location choices of the foreign affiliates of Japanese manufacturing firms, using a new data set that matches parents to the affiliates they created over the 1995-2003 period. The analysis is based on new economic geography theory, and thus focuses on the effect of market and supplier access, as well as production and trade costs. Our aim is twofold. First, we investigate the importance of agglomeration and spillover effects on firms’ decisions via variables showing the presence of Japanese affiliates in the host countries, and Japanese multinational firms at home. Our results confirm the economic importance of information-sharing and network effects, both at home and in the host country, in addition to traditional factors relating to production and transaction costs, and market and supply access. Second, we explore whether the effects of the key determinants of location choice vary according to the characteristics of the investing firm and the affiliate. We find that less productive and smaller parents are more likely to create an affiliate in China rather than in Western Europe or an OECD country. Moreover lessproductive firms seem more sensitive to distance-related costs and low institutional quality, but are more responsive to the presence of Japanese firms and the presence of a Japanese External Trade Organization (JETRO) agency in the host country. Creation-Date: 2008-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2008/wp2008-24.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-24 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Nonlinear Adjustment of the Real Exchange Rate Towards its Equilibrium Value: a Panel Smooth Transition Error Correction Modelling Author-Name: Sophie Béreau Author-Name: Antonia Lopez Villavicencio Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Keywords: Equilibrium exchange rate;BEER model;Panel smooth transition regression;Panel vector error correction model Classification-JEL:F31;C23 Abstract: We study the nonlinear dynamics of the real exchange rate towards its behavioral equilibrium value (BEER) using a Panel Smooth Transition Regression model framework.We show that the real exchange rate convergence process in the long run is characterized by nonlinearities for emerging economies, whereas industrialized countries exhibit a linear pattern. Moreover, there exists an asymmetric behavior of the real exchange rate when facing an over- or an undervaluation of the domestic currency. Finally, our results suggest that the real exchange rate is unable to unwind alone global imbalances. Creation-Date: 2008-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2008/wp2008-23.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-23 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Demographic Uncertainty in Europe. Implications on Macro Economic Trends and Pension Reforms Author-Name: Michel Aglietta Author-Name: Vladimir Borgy Keywords: Computable General Equilibrium Models;International capital flows;Life cycle models and saving;Demographic trends and forecasts Classification-JEL:C68;F21;D91;J11 Abstract: Ageing is a main concern in Western Europe for the present half century. It impinges heavily upon the financing of retirement because a shrinking labour force will entail decelerating growth. Moreover, contrary to popular opinion and to most prospective studies which rely on deterministic demographic projections, the determinants of population size and structure are stochastic. The present paper makes use of the INGENUE2 model to assess the economic impact of demographic uncertainty in Western Europe. Demographic uncertainty affects saving, financial conditions and growth significantly from year 2025 onwards. Worst case scenarios can have crippling effects on the financing of public pension under present retirement policies. It makes all the more necessary to study alternatives. We simulate a policy that involves the development of a funding system to substitute to part of the projected increase in the contribution rate, both under deterministic and stochastic demographic forecasts Creation-Date: 2008-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2008/wp2008-22.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-22 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Euro Effects on the Firm and Product-Level Trade Margins: Evidence from France Author-Name: Antoine Berthou Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Keywords: Trade;Export margins;Euro;France Classification-JEL:F15 Abstract: We investigate the effects of the euro on French exporters. We build three margins corresponding to the decision of exporting, the number of products exported to each destination, and the average value of exports by product, that compose the expected value of exports of each individual firm on a market. Estimation results that rely on the full sample of exporters suggest that the euro adoption had a positive effect on the number of products exported by each individual firm, and no effect on the decision to export and the average value of exports by product. Though, composition effects are in action: the effect on the decision of exporting, and on the average value of exports by products, is positive - but weakly significant - for firms with more than 20 employees. Finally, we find that euro had no effect on least productive firms. Creation-Date: 2008-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2008/wp2008-21.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-21 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Impact of Economic Geography on Wages: Disentangling the Channels of Influence Author-Name: Laura Hering Author-Name: Sandra Poncet Keywords: Economic geography;International trade;Wage;Trade openess;Capital accumulation;China Classification-JEL:F12;F15;R11;R12 Abstract: This paper evaluates the role of economic geography in explaining regional wages in China. It investigates the extent to which market proximity can explain the evolution of wages, and through which channels. We construct a complete indicator of market access at the provincial level from data on domestic and international trade flows; this is introduced in a simultaneous-equations system to identify the direct and indirect effect of market access on wages. The estimation results for 29 Chinese provinces over 1995-2002 suggest that access to sources of demand is indeed an important factor shaping regional wage dynamics in China. We investigate three channels through which market access might influence wages beside direct transport-cost savings: export performance, and human and physical capital accumulation. A fair share of benefits seems to come from enhanced export performance and greater accumulation of physical capital. The main source of influence of market access remains direct transport costs. Creation-Date: 2008-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2008/wp2008-20.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Do Corporate Taxes Reduce Productivity and Investment at the Firm Level? Cross-Country Evidence from the Amadeus Dataset Author-Name: Jens Arnold Author-Name: Cyrille Schwellnus Keywords: Productivity;Growth;Corporate income tax;Firm level data;Fiscal policy Classification-JEL:D21;D24;E22;E62;H25 Abstract: This paper uses a stratified sample of firms across OECD economies over the period 1996-2004 to analyse the effects of corporate taxes on productivity and investment. Applying a differences-in-differences estimation strategy which exploits differential effects of corporate taxes on firms with different profitability, it is found that corporate taxes have a negative effect on productivity at the firm level. The effect is negative across firms of different size and age classes except for the small and young, which may be attributable to the relatively low profitability of small and young firms. The negative effect of corporate taxes is particularly pronounced for firms that are catching up with the technological frontier. In the investment analysis, the results suggest that corporate taxes reduce investment through an increase in the user cost of capital. This may partly explain the negative productivity effects of corporate taxes if new capital goods embody technological change. Creation-Date: 2008-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2008/wp2008-19.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Choosing Sensitive Agricultural Products in Trade Negotiations Author-Name: Sébastien Jean Author-Name: David Laborde Author-Name: Will Martin Keywords: Agricultural trade;Trade negotiations;Market access;Sensitive products;WTO Classification-JEL:F13;P16;Q17 Abstract: The formula approach used in many trade negotiations involves large formula cuts in high tariffs, with flexibilities that allow smaller cuts for selected products. Difficulties in evaluating the effects of these exceptions can create major problems. We use a politicaleconomy welfare function and detailed data on the current WTO agricultural negotiations to assess the implications of this approach for welfare and for market access. We find that some previous rules of thumb greatly underestimate the impacts of such exceptions. Indeed, treating even a small number of tariff lines as sensitive and subjecting them to reduced cuts has a sharply adverse impact on welfare, and a smaller but still negative impact on market access. Creation-Date: 2008-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2008/wp2008-18.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Government Consumption Volatility and Country Size Author-Name: Davide Furceri Author-Name: Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro Keywords: Fiscal policy;Governement size;Fiscal volatility;Country size Classification-JEL:E62;H10 Abstract: This paper provides empirical evidence showing that smaller countries tend to have more volatile government consumption for a sample of 160 countries from 1960 to 2000. The analysis also shows that country size is negatively related to the discretionary part of government consumption and to the volatilities of most of government consumption items. The results are robust to different time and country samples, different econometric techniques and to several sets of control variables. Creation-Date: 2008-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2008/wp2008-17.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Inherited or Earned? Performance of Foreign Banks in Central and Eastern Europe Author-Name: Olena Havrylchyk Author-Name: Emilia Jurzyk Keywords: Foreign banks;Foreign acquisition;Propensity score matching Classification-JEL:G15;G21;G34;F36 Abstract: Using a combination of propensity score matching and difference-in-difference techniques we investigate the impact of foreign bank ownership on the performance and market power of acquired banks operating in Central and Eastern Europe. This approach allows us to control for selection bias as larger but less profitable banks were more likely to be acquired by foreign investors. We show that during three years after the takeover, banks have become more profitable due to cost minimization and better risk management. They have additionally gained market share, because they passed their lower cost of funds to borrowers in terms of lower lending rates. Previous studies failed to pick up the improvements in performance of takeover banks, because they did not account for the performance of financial institutions before acquisitions. Creation-Date: 2008-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2008/wp2008-16.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Effect of Foreign Bank Entry on the Cost of Credit in Transition Economies. Which Borrowers Benefit the Most? Author-Name: Hans Degryse Author-Name: Olena Havrylchyk Author-Name: Emilia Jurzyk Author-Name: Sylwester Kozak Keywords: credit;Investment;Transition;Banks Classification-JEL:E51;G21;L11;G28;G34 Abstract: We employ a unique dataset to study the impact of foreign bank ownership and mode of entry on banks’ lending rates to transparent and opaque borrowers. We find that greenfield banks charge lower lending rates on average and we test for two hypotheses that can explain the lower cost of credit of these institutions: (1) superior performance or (2) different portfolio composition with a focus on more transparent borrowers. Our analysis shows that bank ownership and mode of entry have a large impact on banks’ portfolio composition in terms of borrowers, maturity, and currency. After controlling for these differences, we do not find any impact of foreign bank ownership and mode of entry on lending rates, which is in line with the "portfolio composition hypothesis". Creation-Date: 2008-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2008/wp2008-15.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Contagion in the Credit Default Swap Market: the case of the GM and Ford Crisis in 2005 Author-Name: Virginie Coudert Author-Name: Mathieu Gex Keywords: Credit Default Swap;Bond;Equity;Correlation;Contagion Classification-JEL:C32;G15 Abstract: Has the General Motors (GM) and Ford crisis in 2005 spread to the whole credit default swap (CDS) market? To answer this question, we study the correlations between CDS premia, by using a sample of 226 CDSs on major US and European firms. We show that correlations significantly increased during the crisis, especially in the first week. We also test the links between markets at the firm level, using VECM and VAR models. The lead of the CDS market over the bond market appears to have weakened during the crisis. The links with the equity market were also mitigated. Creation-Date: 2008-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2008/wp2008-14.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Exporting to Insecure Markets: a Firm-Level Analysis Author-Name: Matthieu Crozet Author-Name: Pamina Koenig Author-Name: Vincent Rebeyrol Keywords: Insecurity;Institutions;firm heterogeneity;trade margins Classification-JEL:F12;D80;K40;F10 Abstract: This paper proposes an original approach to investigate the influence of insecurity and institutional quality on international trade. We emphasize that insecurity is hardly comparable with other trade barriers such as tariffs because it does not affect all firms similarly. We develop a monopolistic competition trade model with insecurity as a random additional sunk cost for exporting firms. A higher level of insecurity may dissuade large firms to export, while some smaller ones may be able to enter the export market. Hence, insecurity disrupts firms’ selection into export markets, and this has particular effects on trade margins. Two discriminating predictions are derived from the model and confronted to the data. Using individual French firms exports to 100 destination countries, we find clear evidence corroborating our theoretical predictions. Creation-Date: 2008-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2008/wp2008-13.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Social Competition and Firms' Location Choices Author-Name: Vincent Delbecque Author-Name: Isabelle Méjean Author-Name: Lise Patureau Keywords: Labor market institutions;foreign direct investment determinants;firm-level data Classification-JEL:F16;F21;J30 Abstract: The paper evaluates the empirical effect of labor market institutions on foreign direct investment (FDI) decisions. To that aim, a firm-level dataset is used, that describes French firms’ expansion strategies abroad over the 1992-2002 period. Following Head and Mayer (2004b), the determinants of individual FDI decisions are estimated by implementing a discrete choice model on all possible foreign locations. The estimated equation is derived from a partialequilibrium model combining elements of the new economic geography literature and the labor market literature. We find that labor market institutions do impact French firms’ location decisions. Our overall results suggest that labor market rigidity puts a brake on the host country’s attractiveness. More detailed analysis shows that the estimated effects depend on the sample of countries considered as potential locations. French firms are found to be much more sensitive to the design of labor market institutions when FDI decisions take place within the set of industrialized OECD countries. Creation-Date: 2008-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2008/wp2008-12.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Border Effects of Brazilian States Author-Name: Marie Daumal Author-Name: Soledad Zignago Keywords: Border effects;Brazil;International trade;Domestic integration Classification-JEL:F10;F14;F15 Abstract: We estimate the degree of trade integration among Brazilian states and calculate the magnitude of the Brazilian states' engagement in international trade in the years 1991, 1997, 1998 and 1999 using the methodology of border effects. We show that the Brazilian market is rather highly fragmented but less than the Chinese market. Brazilian sub-national borders reduced interstate trade by a factor of 23 in 1991 and a factor of 13 in 1999, indicating an ongoing process of domestic integration. International trade integration of Brazilian states increased over the period 1991-1999 in conjunction with the strategy of outward orientation. Border effects differ greatly among Brazilian states: internal and international trade integration is low for Northern Regions (with the exception of Amazonas State) and high for Southern regions, the most domestically integrated states being also those most engaged in international trade. Creation-Date: 2008-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2008/wp2008-11.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: International Trade Price Indices Author-Name: Guillaume Gaulier Author-Name: Julien Martin Author-Name: Isabelle Méjean Author-Name: Soledad Zignago Keywords: International trade;Price indices Classification-JEL:F10;F12;F15 Abstract: Export and import price indices are useful instruments in international economics. We document here TradePrices, our database of aggregated and sectoral trade price indices for all countries, computed using unit values given by BACI, the CEPII’s database of international trade at the product-level covering the period 1995-2004. Its rich country dimension allow an international comparison of prices evolutions. We compute “common” Laspeyres and Paasche indices but also “superlative” Fisher and Tornqvist indices, in both chained and fixed-base forms (chained Laspeyres and Paasche are also provided in their geometric form). In a first part, we discuss the characteristics of these different aggregation methods. In particular, we highlight the links between statistical methods and economical assumptions about implicit elasticity of substitution between goods. In a second step we describe the data. An exhaustive sensitivity analysis is done in order to determine the appropriate way to deal with technical difficulties, such as the treatment of measurement errors in bilateral unit values. Finally, this paper provides some stylized facts illustrating the necessity to provide a trade price database allowing international comparison and the usefulness of both aggregated and sectoral trade price indices to study international economics. TradeP rices database and SAS programs are freely available online, offering to users the possibility to choose the most accurate index for each particular purpose. Creation-Date: 2008-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2008/wp2008-10.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Base de données CHELEM - Commerce international du CEPII Author-Name: Alix de Saint Vaulry Keywords: Classification-JEL:F10;C82 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2008-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2008/wp2008-09.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-09 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Brain Drain between Knowledge Based Economies: the European Human Capital Outflows to the US Author-Name: Ahmed Tritah Keywords: Emigration;Brain-drain;Human capital;Knowledge economy;Europe-US Classification-JEL:F22;J24;O15;O52 Abstract: This paper uses the 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2006 U.S. micro censuses data to document the magnitude and nature of European human capital outflow to the United States. I found that while emigration is about a small number of individuals, the share of Europeans who are leaving is increasing as one moves along the educational distribution and ladder of occupations that matter the most in the knowledge economy. Next, using productivity based brain drain indices it is found that aggregate human capital conveyed by emigrants has increased since the 1990s. Finally, as a better understanding on the nature of human capital embodied in European emigrants, I show that the Europeans earn a positive wage premium relative to the US natives. Moreover, this premium is higher for the most recent expatriates cohorts, providing further evidence that the quality of European emigrants has increased. Creation-Date: 2008-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2008/wp2008-08.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-08 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Currency Misalignments and Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging and Developing Countries Author-Name: Virginie Coudert Author-Name: Cécile Couharde Keywords: Exchange rate regimes;emerging and developing countries;misalignments Classification-JEL:F31;F33 Abstract: Pegged exchange rates are often pointed out as more prone to risk of overvaluation, because their real exchange rates have a tendency to appreciate. We check this assumption empirically over a large sample of emerging and developing countries, by using two databases for de facto classifications by Levy-Yeyati and Sturzenegger (2003) and by Reinhart and Rogoff (2004). We assess currency misalignments by estimating real equilibrium exchange rates taking into account a Balassa effect and the impact of net foreign assets. Pegged currencies are shown to be more overvalued than floating ones. Creation-Date: 2008-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2008/wp2008-07.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-07 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Euro and the Intensive and Extensive Margins of Trade: Evidence from French Firm Level Data Author-Name: Antoine Berthou Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Keywords: Trade;Export margins;Euro Classification-JEL:F10;F15 Abstract: We improve the study of the effects of a Currency Union on trade. Using data on French exports at the firm level, we compute an intensive and extensive margins of French exports - with a variety dimension - over the period 1998-2003. Estimation results indicate that nominal exchange rate volatility has a negative effect, which translates into the intensive and extensive margins. We also provide some evidence that the euro had an additional positive effect on the extensive margin; this effect is not related to the reduced nominal exchange rate volatility. This suggests a new varieties effect of the euro. Creation-Date: 2008-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2008/wp2008-06.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-06 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: On the Influence of Oil Prices on Economic Activity and Other Macroeconomic and Financial Variables Author-Name: François Lescaroux Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Keywords: Oil prices;Economic activity;Causality;Cyclical correlations;Cointegration;VAR processes Classification-JEL:C22;C23;Q43 Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate the links between oil prices and various macroeconomic and financial variables for a large set of countries, including both oilimporting and exporting countries. Both short-run and long-run interactions are analyzed through the implementation of causality tests, evaluation of cross-correlations between the cyclical components of the series in order to identify lead/lag relationships and cointegration analysis. Our results highlight the existence of various relationships between oil prices and macroeconomic variables and, especially, an important link between oil and share prices on the short run. Turning to the long run, numerous long-term relationships are detected, the causality generally running from oil prices to the other variables. An important conclusion is relating to the key role played by the oil market on stock markets. Creation-Date: 2008-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2008/wp2008-05.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: An Impact Study of the EU-ACP Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) in the Six ACP Regions Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: David Laborde Author-Name: Cristina Mitaritonna Keywords: Preferential trade agreements;Africa;EPAs;Simulations Classification-JEL:F13;F15;O55 Abstract: This study intends to present a very detailed and dynamic analysis of the trade-related aspects of Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) negotiations. We use a dynamic partial equilibrium model – focusing on the demand side – at the HS6 level (covering 5,113 HS6 products). Two alternative lists of sensitive products are constructed, one giving priority to the agricultural sectors, the other focusing on tariff revenue preservation. In order to be WTO compatible, EPAs must translate into 90 percent of bilateral trade fully liberalised. We use this criterion to simulate EPAs for each negotiating regional block. ACP exports to the EU are forecast to be 10 percent higher with the EPAs than under the GSP/EBA option. On average ACP countries are forecast to lose 70 percent of tariff revenues on EU imports in the long run. Yet imports from other regions of the world will continue to provide tariff revenues. Thus when tariff revenue losses are computed on total ACP imports, losses are limited to 26 percent on average in the long run and even 19 percent when the product lists are optimised. The final impact on the economy depends on the importance of tariffs in government revenue and on potential compensatory effects. However this long term and less visible effect will mainly depend on the capacity of each ACP country to reorganise its fiscal base. Creation-Date: 2008-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2008/wp2008-04.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Brave New World of Cross-Regionalism Author-Name: Alfred Tovias Keywords: Trade negociation;Regionalism Classification-JEL:F13;F15 Abstract: Cross-regionalism is a new fashion in preferential trading whereby countries, large or small, participate simultaneously in various Free Trade Areas. They seem mostly to be a reflection of the increasing rivalry of the United States and the European Union for drawing the attention by emerging middle-sized and small economies. This trend is profited then by the latter to diversify their previous (almost) exclusive economic relations with a given "hub". A strategy consisting in multiplying the number of Free Trade Areas is perfectly suited both to "hubs" and "spokes". According to the old North-South pattern, economic powers concluding preferential deals sought mainly to reap the political benefit of extending their sphere of influence and small countries the economic benefit of market access to a large market. Now new pattern is emerging whereby the two partners are motivated both by economic and political reasons. One clear result is that spheres of influence are on the wane. But this is of no help to least developed countries. Creation-Date: 2008-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2008/wp2008-03.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Equilibrium Exchange Rates: a Guidebook for the Euro-Dollar Rate Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Sophie Béreau Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Keywords: Equilibrium exchange rate;Euro-dollar;FEER;BEER;Global imbalances Classification-JEL:F31;C23 Abstract: In this paper, we investigate different views of equilibrium exchange rates within a single, stock-flow adjustment framework. We then compare FEER and BEER estimations of equilibrium exchange rates based on the same, econometric model of the net foreign asset position, with special focus on the euro-dollar rate. These estimations suggest that, although more robust to alternative assumptions, the BEER approach may rely on excessive confidence on past behaviors in terms of portfolio allocation. Symmetrically, FEERs may underestimate the plasticity of international capital markets because they focus on the adjustment of the trade balance. Creation-Date: 2008-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2008/wp2008-02.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: How Robust are Estimated Equilibrium Exchange Rates? A Panel BEER Approach Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Sophie Béreau Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Keywords: Equilibrium exchange rate;BEER;Productivity;Panel cointegration Classification-JEL:F31;C23 Abstract: This paper is concerned with the robustness of equilibrium exchange rate estimations based on the BEER approach for a set of both industrial and emerging countries. The robustness is studied in four directions, successively. First, we investigate the impact of using alternative proxies for relative productivity. Second, we analyze the impact of estimating the equilibrium equation on one single panel covering G20 countries, or separately for G7 and non-G7 countries. Third, we measure the influence of the choice of the numeraire on the derivation of bilateral equilibrium rates. Finally, we study the temporal robustness of the estimations by dropping one or two years from the estimation period. Our main conclusion is that BEER estimations are quite robust to these successive tests, although at one point of time misalignments can differ by several percentage points depending on the methodology. The choice of the productivity proxy is the most sensible one, followed by the country sample. In contrast, the choice of the numeraire and the time sample have a relatively limited impact on estimated misalignments. Creation-Date: 2008-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2008/wp2008-01.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Testing the Finance-Growth Link: is There a Difference Between Developed and Developing Countries? Author-Name: Gilles Dufrénot Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Author-Name: Anne Péguin-Feissolle Keywords: financial intermediation;panel Classification-JEL:C50;G20;O50 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2007-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2007/wp2007-24.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2007-24 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Labor Migration: Macroeconomic and Demographic Outlook for Europe and Neighborhood Regions Author-Name: Vladimir Borgy Author-Name: Xavier Chojnicki Keywords: CGEM;INGENUE;Capital movements;Demoeconomics;Demography Classification-JEL:F21;C68;J61;H55;J11 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2007-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2007/wp2007-23.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2007-23 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Economic Geography, Spatial Dependence and Income Inequality in China Author-Name: Laura Hering Author-Name: Sandra Poncet Keywords: Inequality;economic geography Classification-JEL:E10;O10;O50;R10 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2007-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2007/wp2007-22.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2007-22 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Does FDI in Manufacturing Cause FDI in Business Services? Evidence from French Firm-Level Data Author-Name: Benjamin Nefussi Author-Name: Cyrille Schwellnus Keywords: International firms;International trade models and databases;FDI;Gravity model;services Classification-JEL:F13;F15;L80 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2007-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2007/wp2007-21.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2007-21 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Bilateral Trade of Cultural Goods Author-Name: Anne-Célia Disdier Author-Name: Silvio H.T. Tai Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Thierry Mayer Keywords: International trade models and databases;Gravity model;Simulation Classification-JEL:F10;Z10 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2007-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2007/wp2007-20.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2007-20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: China and India in International Trade: from Laggards to Leaders? Author-Name: Françoise Lemoine Author-Name: Deniz Ünal-Kesenci Keywords: International trade Classification-JEL:F14;F15;O33;O53;O57 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2007-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2007/wp2007-19.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2007-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: How Remote is the Offshoring Threat? Author-Name: Keith Head Author-Name: Thierry Mayer Author-Name: John Ries Keywords: International trade models and databases;Gravity model Classification-JEL: Abstract: Creation-Date: 2007-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2007/wp2007-18.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2007-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Costs and Benefits of Euro Membership: a Counterfactual Analysis Author-Name: Emmanuel Dubois Author-Name: Jérôme Hericourt Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Keywords: Euro;Key currencies;Foreign exchange markets;Euro area Classification-JEL:F31;C32;E17;F42 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2007-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2007/wp2007-17.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2007-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Location Decisions and Minimum Wages Author-Name: Isabelle Méjean Author-Name: Lise Patureau Keywords: Wages Classification-JEL:F12;f16;F21;F31;F41 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2007-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2007/wp2007-16.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2007-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: MIRAGE, Updated Version of the Model for Trade Policy Analysis: Focus on Agriculture and Dynamics Author-Name: Yvan Decreux Author-Name: Hugo Valin Keywords: CGEM;Trade policy;Agriculture;FDI Classification-JEL:D58;F12;F13;Q17 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2007-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2007/wp2007-15.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2007-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Mondialisation des services : de la mesure à l’analyse Author-Name: Isabelle Bensidoun Author-Name: Deniz Ünal-Kesenci Keywords: Classification-JEL:F10;F14;F23;L80 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2007-08 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2007/wp2007-14.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2007-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Globalization in Services: from Measurement to Analysis Author-Name: Isabelle Bensidoun Author-Name: Deniz Ünal Keywords: SERVICES;INTERNATIONAL TRADE;SPECIALIZATION;FATS Classification-JEL:L80;F10;F14;F23 Abstract: This paper provides new estimates of international trade in services for mode 3 (foreign affiliates’sales in a host country) for four major OECD countries, thanks to the harmonisation of FATS statistics with conventional international trade ones (trade recorded in the balances of payments – modes 1 and 2), using the CEPII’s exhaustive CHELEM-BAL database. The results show that sales by foreign affiliates abroad account for the bulk of international trade in services. Technological changes are speeding up the globalisation of the tertiary sector. These new areas of trade are still dominated by the Northern countries, whose service surpluses offset some of their declining competitiveness in manufacturing markets. Creation-Date: 2007-08 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2007/wp2007-14.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2007-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: How are Wages set in Beijing? Author-Name: José De Sousa Author-Name: Sandra Poncet Keywords: Wages;immigration;economic geography Classification-JEL:F12;F15;R11;R12 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2007-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2007/wp2007-13.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2007-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: IMF Quotas at Year 2030 Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Sophie Béreau Author-Name: Yvan Decreux Author-Name: Christophe Gouel Author-Name: Sandra Poncet Keywords: IMF;Long run projections;Quota shares Classification-JEL:F33 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2007-08 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2007/wp2007-12.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2007-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: FDI and Credit Constraints: Firm Level Evidence in China Author-Name: Jérôme Héricourt Keywords: FDI;Banking system;Financial markets;Credit Classification-JEL:E22;E44;G31;O16 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2007-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2007/wp2007-11.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2007-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Fiscal Policy in Real Time Author-Name: Jacopo Cimadomo Keywords: Fiscal policy;Cyclical stabilization;Real-time data;Revision errors;Endogenous threshold models Classification-JEL:C23;E30;E62;H30 Abstract: In this paper we argue that any assessment on the intentional stance of fiscal policy should be based upon all the information available to policymakers at the time of fiscal planning. In particular, real-time data on the discretionary fiscal policy “instrument”, the structural primary balance, should be used in the estimation of fiscal policy reaction functions. In fact, the ex-post realization of discretionary fiscal measures may end up to be drastically different from what intentionally planned by fiscal authorities in the budget law. If this is the case, and if revision errors in the policy indicator are correlated with the ones in the regressors, it is shown that commonly used estimators become biased possibly inducing a misleading judgement on the policy stance. We derive the functional form of that bias and, based on empirical second-order moments, we are able to accurately predict the potential impact of using revised data in the evaluation of the ex-ante stance of fiscal policy. When fiscal policy rules are estimated on real-time data, our results indicate a counter-cyclical stance in OECD countries, especially during economic expansions. This contrasts with conventional findings based on revised data, which point to fiscal policy acyclicality or pro-cyclicality, and with Forni and Momigliano (2005) who employ real-time data for the output gap and find countercyclicality, but just in recessions. Further, we test whether threshold effects might be at play in the reaction of fiscal policy to the economic cycle and to debt accumulation. It emerges that the intentional cyclical behavior of fiscal policy is characterized by two regimes, and that the switch between them is likely to occur when output is close to its equilibrium level. On the other hand, the use of revised data does not allow to identify any threshold effect. Creation-Date: 2007-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2007/wp2007-10.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2007-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Global Ageing and Macroeconomic Consequences of Demographic Uncertainty in a Multi-Regional Model Author-Name: Juha Alho Author-Name: vladimir Borgy Keywords: INGENUE;cgem;Demography;Capital markets;Demoeconomics Classification-JEL:C68;F21;D91;J11 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2007-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2007/wp2007-09.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2007-09 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Effect of Domestic Regulation on Services Trade Revisited Author-Name: Cyrille Schwellnus Keywords: services;Gravity model;Regulation Classification-JEL:F13;F15;L80 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2007-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2007/wp2007-08.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2007-08 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Location of Domestic and Foreign Production Affiliates by French Multinational Firms Author-Name: Thierry Mayer Author-Name: Isabelle Méjean Author-Name: Benjamin Nefussi Keywords: International firms;Globalization;Models Classification-JEL:F12;F15;F23 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2007-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2007/wp2007-07.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2007-07 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Specialisation across Varieties within Products and North-South Competition Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Guillaume Gaulier Author-Name: Soledad Zignago Keywords: International trade;Specialization;Competition;BACI Classification-JEL:F10;F14 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2007-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2007/wp2007-06.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2007-06 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Trade Costs and the Home Market Effect Author-Name: Matthieu Crozet Author-Name: Federico Trionfetti Keywords: International trade;economic geography;Models;Home market effect;Market access;International trade theory Classification-JEL:F10;R12 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2007-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2007/wp2007-05.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2007-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Impact of Regulations on Agricultural Trade: Evidence from SPS and TBT Agreements Author-Name: Anne-Célia Disdier Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Mondher Mimouni Keywords: Agriculture;SPS;NTB;ad valorem equivalents;Protection;Market access;International trade Classification-JEL:F13;Q17;Q10 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2007-02 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2007/wp2007-04.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2007-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: International Comparisons of Living Standards by Equivalent Incomes Author-Name: Marc Fleurbaey Author-Name: Guillaume Gaulier Keywords: Living standards;Social welfare;GDP;Equivalent income;OECD Classification-JEL:D60;D71;O57;P17 Abstract: International comparisons of living standards are still primarily made using GDP per capita, in spite of recurrent criticism that this is a partial and ill-founded measure of social welfare (Sen). Alternative measures abound, such as the Index of Human Development computed by the United Nations Development Program since 1990 or Osberg and Sharpe’s Index of Economic Well-being. The problem is that these indicators are based on the aggregation of various subindexes of social performance, arbitrarily weighted. We suggest reliance on a basic notion of welfare economics, namely, compensating variations, which take into account country differences in non-income dimensions of living standards (such as leisure, health, etc) and make international comparisons possible. We use compensating variations in a way that is consistent with recent developments in social choice theory, so that our work is closely tied to a theoretically sound notion of social welfare. Creation-Date: 2007-01 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2007/wp2007-03.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2007-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Does Risk Aversion Drive Financial Crises? Testing the Predictive Power of Empirical Indicators Author-Name: Virginie Coudert Author-Name: Mathieu Gex Keywords: Models;Financial markets;Crisis Classification-JEL:C33;E44;f37;G12 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2007-01 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2007/wp2007-02.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2007-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Asian Catch Up, World Growth and International Capital Flows in the XXIst Century: a Prospective Analysis with the INGENUE 2 Model Author-Name: Michel Aglietta Author-Name: Vladimir Borgy Author-Name: Jean Chateau Author-Name: Michel Juillard Author-Name: Jacques le Cacheux Keywords: CGEM;International Factor Movements;Capital movements;Growth Classification-JEL:C68;F21;D91;F43 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2007-01 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2007/wp2007-01.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2007-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Current Account Reversals and Long Term Imbalances: Application to the Central and Eastern European Countries Author-Name: Kenza Benhima Author-Name: Olena Havrylchyk Keywords: Current accounts;FDI;Capital movements;Capital markets Classification-JEL:F21;F32 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2006-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2006/wp2006-27.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2006-27 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: On Legal Origins and Brankruptcy Laws: the European Experience (1808-1914) Author-Name: Jérôme Sgard Keywords: Bankruptcy;Corporate finance;Regulation Classification-JEL:G33;K12;N43 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2006-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2006/wp2006-26.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2006-26 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Taux d’intérêt et marchés boursiers : une analyse empirique de l’intégration financière internationale Author-Name: vladimir Borgy Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Keywords: Classification-JEL:C22;E43;F36;G15 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2006-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2006/wp2006-25.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2006-25 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Changing Patterns of Domestic and Cross-Border Fiscal Policy Multipliers in Europe and the US Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Jacopo Cimadomo Keywords: Fiscal policy effectiveness;fiscal shocks;spillovers;factor-augmented VAR;Great Moderation Classification-JEL:E30;E61;E62 Abstract: This paper documents time variation in domestic fiscal policy multipliers in Germany, the UK and the US, and in cross-border fiscal spillovers from Germany to the seven largest European Union economies. We propose two VAR models which incorporate three “global factors” representing developments in the world economy, and we combine them with identification of fiscal shocks à la Blanchard and Perotti (2002) and Perotti (2005), to study the effects of net tax and government spending shocks on GDP, inflation and interest rates. By recursively estimating these models on different samples of data, we find that the domestic impact of tax shocks has been positive but vanishing for Germany and the US, stably not significant for the UK. Financial markets deregulations may play an important role in that since they allow households to be less dependent on disposable income and to smooth more easily consumption. Domestic government spending multipliers are found to be positive but feeble in the short-run and close to zero or slightly negative in the medium-run, implying that private consumption and investments might be crowded out. These results suggest that, in the European Monetary Union, discretionary fiscal policy “surprises” (i.e. unexpected tax cuts and government spending expansions) cannot be used by governments as substitutes for lost national monetary instruments, since they have shown to be progressively ineffective over time. Finally, we find that fiscal expansions in Germany have had beneficial (though declining) effects for neighboring countries, especially the smaller ones. This may indicate that the trade channel of transmission of fiscal policy dominates the interest rate one. Creation-Date: 2006-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2006/wp2006-24.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2006-24 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Market Access Impact on Individual Wage: Evidence from China Author-Name: Laura Hering Author-Name: Sandra Poncet Keywords: economic geography;International trade;Regional integration;Wages;Inequality;Gravity model;Development Classification-JEL:F12;F15;R11;R12 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2006-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2006/wp2006-23.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2006-23 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: FDI in Chinese Cities: Spillovers and Impact on Growth Author-Name: Nicole Madariaga Author-Name: Sandra Poncet Keywords: Growth;Convergence;economic geography;FDI Classification-JEL:E10;O10;O50;R10 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2006-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2006/wp2006-22.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2006-22 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Are Financial Distortions an Impediment to Economic Growth? Evidence from China Author-Name: Alessandra Guariglia Author-Name: Sandra Poncet Keywords: Financial markets;Growth;Productivity;Banking system;FDI Classification-JEL:E44;G21;N15;O16;O40 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2006-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2006/wp2006-21.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2006-21 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: World Consistent Equilibrium Exchange Rates Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Amina Lahrèche-Révil Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Keywords: Exchange rate;Models;panel Classification-JEL:F31;C23 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2006-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2006/wp2006-20.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2006-20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Institutions and Bilateral Asset Holdings Author-Name: Véronique Salins Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Keywords: Portfolio;Current accounts;Institutions;Gravity model Classification-JEL:F21;O17 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2006-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2006/wp2006-19.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2006-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Vertical Production Networks: Evidence from France Author-Name: Michel Fouquin Author-Name: Laurence Nayman Author-Name: Laurent Wagner Keywords: International firms;Globalization;Intra-industry trade;segmentation;Productivity;International comparison;FDI;Factor costs Classification-JEL:F23;F10;L10 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2006-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2006/wp2006-18.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2006-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Import Prices, Variety and the Extensive Margin of Trade Author-Name: Guillaume Gaulier Author-Name: Isabelle Méjean Keywords: BACI;Prices;Exchange rate;panel Classification-JEL:F10;F12;F41 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2006-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2006/wp2006-17.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2006-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Long Term Growth Prospects of the World Economy: Horizon 2050 Author-Name: Sandra Poncet Keywords: Growth;Human capital;Technology transfers;Convergence Classification-JEL:O10;O40 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2006-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2006/wp2006-16.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2006-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Economic Integration in Asia: Bilateral Free Trade Agreements Versus Asian Single Market Author-Name: Mohamed Hedi Bchir Author-Name: Michel Fouquin Keywords: CGEM;International trade;Regional integration;Models;Mirage;FTA;Simulation;Market access Classification-JEL:D58;F15;N85 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2006-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2006/wp2006-15.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2006-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Foreign Direct Investment in China: Reward or Remedy? Author-Name: Sandra Poncet Author-Name: Olena Havrylchyk Keywords: Banking system;FDI;Credit;Monetary policy;International integration Classification-JEL:F15;G28 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2006-08 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2006/wp2006-14.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2006-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Short-Term Fiscal Spillovers in a Monetary Union Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Keywords: Tax and budget policy;Models;Monetary block Classification-JEL:E61;E62;F41 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2006-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2006/wp2006-13.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2006-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Can Firms’ Location Decisions Counteract the Balassa-Samuelson Effect? Author-Name: Isabelle Méjean Keywords: PPP;International trade;Relocation Classification-JEL:F10;F20;F40 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2006-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2006/wp2006-12.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2006-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Who’s Afraid of Tax Competition? Harmless Tax Competition from the New European Member States Author-Name: Amina Lahrèche-Révil Keywords: Tax and budget policy;Tax competition;FDI;enlargement;Eastern Europe Classification-JEL:F21;F36;H25;H87 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2006-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2006/wp2006-11.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2006-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: A Quantitative Assessment of the Outcome of the Doha Development Agenda Author-Name: Yvan Decreux Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Keywords: International trade;CGEM;WTO;Trade negotiations Classification-JEL:F10;F13;F12;D58 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2006-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2006/wp2006-10.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2006-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Disparities in Pension Financing in Europe: Economic and Financial Consequences Author-Name: Jean Chateau Keywords: Pensions;Ageing;CGEM;Demoeconomics;Demography Classification-JEL:H55;J10;C68 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2006-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2006/wp2006-09.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2006-09 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Base de données CHELEM-BAL du CEPII Author-Name: Houssein Guimbard Author-Name: Deniz Ünal-Kesenci Keywords: Classification-JEL:C82 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2006-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2006/wp2006-08.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2006-08 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Deindustrialisation and the Fear of Relocations in the Industry Author-Name: Hervé Boulhol Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Keywords: Deindustrialisation;Relocation;International trade;Employment Classification-JEL:O10;O30;f16;F43 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2006-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2006/wp2006-07.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2006-07 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: A Dynamic Perspective for the Reform of the Stability and Growth Pact Author-Name: Christian Deubner Keywords: Stability and growth pact;Single currency;Euro Classification-JEL:E61;E62 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2006-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2006/wp2006-06.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2006-06 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: China’s Emergence and the Reorganisation of Trade Flows in Asia Author-Name: Guillaume Gaulier Author-Name: Françoise Lemoine Author-Name: Deniz Ünal Keywords: International trade;IDPP;Regional integration;Specialization Classification-JEL:F14;F15;F20;O53 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2006-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2006/wp2006-05.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2006-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Who Pays China’s Bank Restructuring Bill? Author-Name: Guonan Ma Keywords: Banking system;Restructuring Classification-JEL:G21;G28;O53;P34 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2006-02 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2006/wp2006-04.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2006-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Structural Determinants of the Exchange-Rate Pass-Through Author-Name: Guillaume Gaulier Author-Name: Amina Lahrèche-Révil Author-Name: Isabelle Méjean Keywords: Oligopolies;Competition;panel;Prices;Exchange rate Classification-JEL:F10;F40 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2006-02 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2006/wp2006-03.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2006-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Exchange-Rate Pass-Trough at the Product Level Author-Name: Guillaume Gaulier Author-Name: Amina Lahrèche-Révil Author-Name: Isabelle Méjean Keywords: Prices;Sectors Classification-JEL:F12;F31 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2006-02 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2006/wp2006-02.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2006-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Je t'aime, moi non plus : Bilateral Opinions and International Trade Author-Name: Anne-Célia Disdier Author-Name: Thierry Mayer Keywords: Gravity model;enlargement;International trade Classification-JEL:F10 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2006-01 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2006/wp2006-01.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2006-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: World Trade Competitiveness: A Disaggregated View by Shift-Share Analysis Author-Name: Angela Cheptea Author-Name: Guillaume Gaulier Author-Name: Soledad Zignago Keywords: International trade;Competitiveness;Market access;Specialization;International comparison;Asia;South America Classification-JEL:F12;F15 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2005-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2005/wp2005-23.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2005-23 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Chômage et réformes du marché du travail au Japon Author-Name: Evelyne Dourille-Feer Keywords: Classification-JEL:J64;J65;J68;J21;J26 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2005-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2005/wp2005-22.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2005-22 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Profitability of Foreign and Domestic Banks in Central and Eastern Europe : Does the Mode of Entry Matter? Author-Name: Olena Havrylchyk Author-Name: Emilia Jurzyk Keywords: Banking system;Competition;FDI;Financial markets Classification-JEL:G15;G21;F36 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2005-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2005/wp2005-21.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2005-21 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: ECB Governance in an Enlarged Eurozone Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Edouard Turkisch Keywords: ECB;EMU;enlargement Classification-JEL:E58 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2005-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2005/wp2005-20.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2005-20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: What Are EU Trade Preferences Worth for Sub-Saharan Africa and Other Developing Countries? Author-Name: Fabien Candau Author-Name: Sébastien Jean Keywords: preferential trade arrangements;EU;Africa;GSP Classification-JEL:F13;N77 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2005-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2005/wp2005-19.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2005-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Binding Overhang and Tariff-Cutting Formulas Author-Name: Mohamed Hedi Bchir Author-Name: Sébastien Jean Author-Name: David Laborde Keywords: bound duties;WTO;Trade liberalization;Trade negotiations;MAcMaps;MFN;trade preference;Protection Classification-JEL:F13 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2005-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2005/wp2005-18.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2005-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: International Trade and Income Distribution: Reconsidering the Evidence Author-Name: Isabelle Bensidoun Author-Name: Sébastien Jean Author-Name: Aude Sztulman Keywords: International trade;International integration;Globalization;Income;Growth Classification-JEL:F11;F16;D30 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2005-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2005/wp2005-17.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2005-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: China and the Relationship Between the Oil Price and the Dollar Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Valérie Mignon Author-Name: Alexis Penot Keywords: Dollar;Energy cost;Exchange rate;Euro;Models;Foreign exchange markets Classification-JEL:C22;F31;Q43 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2005-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2005/wp2005-16.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2005-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Consequences of Alternative Formulas for Agricultural Tariff Cuts Author-Name: Sébastien Jean Author-Name: David Laborde Author-Name: Will Martin Keywords: Doha;bound duties;Agriculture;Trade negotiations;CGEM Classification-JEL:D58;F13;P17;Q17 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2005-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2005/wp2005-15.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2005-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Is Erosion of Tariff Preferences a Serious Concern? Author-Name: Antoine Bouët Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Sébastien Jean Keywords: preferential trade arrangements;Doha;CGEM;International trade;Trade negotiations;WTO;Agriculture;Trade policy Classification-JEL:F12;F13;D58;Q17;O19 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2005-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2005/wp2005-14.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2005-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Consequences of Agricultural Trade Liberalization for Developing Countries: Distinguishing Between Genuine Benefits and False Hopes Author-Name: Jean-Christophe Bureau Author-Name: Sébastien Jean Author-Name: Alan Matthews Keywords: Agriculture;International trade;WTO;Trade liberalization;Market access Classification-JEL:F13;Q17;F10 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2005-08 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2005/wp2005-13.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2005-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: From Bound Duties to Actual Protection: Industrial Liberalisation in the Doha Round Author-Name: Mohamed Hedi Bchir Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Sébastien Jean Keywords: CGEM;Market access;Tariffs;bound duties;preferential trade arrangements;Doha;binding overhang Classification-JEL:D58;F12;F13 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2005-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2005/wp2005-12.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2005-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Impact de l’ouverture financière sur les inégalités internes dans les pays émergents Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Véronique Salins Keywords: Classification-JEL:D63;F21;F23;O18 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2005-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2005/wp2005-11.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2005-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Disentangling Horizontal and Vertical Intra-Industry Trade Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Michael Freudenberg Author-Name: Guillaume Gaulier Keywords: International trade;Intra-industry trade Classification-JEL:F14;F15 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2005-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2005/wp2005-10.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2005-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: China’s Integration in East Asia: Production Sharing, FDI & High-Tech Trade Author-Name: Guillaume Gaulier Author-Name: Françoise Lemoine Author-Name: Deniz Ünal-Kesenci Keywords: Technology transfers;International trade;Specialization;FDI;Globalization;IDPP;Specialization Classification-JEL:F13;F14;F15;O53 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2005-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2005/wp2005-09.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2005-09 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Tax Competition and Public Input Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Nicolas Gobalraja Author-Name: Alain Trannoy Keywords: Tax competition;Tax and budget policy;FDI;International Factor Movements Classification-JEL:F21;F23;H25;H41;H54 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2005-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2005/wp2005-08.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2005-08 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Trade Liberalisation, Growth and Poverty in Senegal: a Dynamic Microsimulation CGE Model Analysis Author-Name: Nabil Annabi Author-Name: Fatou Cissé Author-Name: John Cockburn Author-Name: Bernard Decaluwé Keywords: Trade liberalization;Market access;poverty;Inequality;CGEM Classification-JEL:D33;D58;E27;F17;I32 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2005-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2005/wp2005-07.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2005-07 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Migration, Trade and Wages Author-Name: Alexander Hijzen Author-Name: Peter Wright Keywords: immigration;International trade;Wages;Globalization;Factor markets;Labor market Classification-JEL:C31;D33;F11;F16;F22 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2005-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2005/wp2005-06.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2005-06 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Institutional Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Maylis Coupet Author-Name: Thierry Mayer Keywords: FDI;Gravity model;Institutions;Relocation Classification-JEL:F23;R30 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2005-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2005/wp2005-05.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2005-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: L’économie indienne : changements structurels et perspectives à long-terme Author-Name: Françoise Lemoine Author-Name: Sophie Chauvin Keywords: Classification-JEL:O53;O57;O47;O10 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2005-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2005/wp2005-04.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2005-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Market Access in Global and Regional Trade Author-Name: Thierry Mayer Author-Name: Soledad Zignago Keywords: Market access;International trade;Regional integration;Border effects;Gravity model;Developing countries;Industrialized countries;Tariffs Classification-JEL:F12;F15 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2005-01 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2005/wp2005-02.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2005-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in China Author-Name: Virginie Coudert Author-Name: Cécile Couharde Keywords: Yen;Exchange rate;Emerging countries;Models;Key currencies;Foreign exchange markets Classification-JEL:F31;F33 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2005-01 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2005/wp2005-01.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2005-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: A Consistent, Ad-Valorem Equivalent Measure of Applied Protection Across the World: The MAcMap-HS6 Database Author-Name: Antoine Bouët Author-Name: Yvan Decreux Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Sébastien Jean Author-Name: David Laborde Keywords: Tariffs;preferential trade arrangements;Protection;Market access;Trade policy;trade arrangement;database Classification-JEL:F13 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2004-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2004/wp2004-22.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2004-22 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Impact of Multilateral Liberalisation on European Regions: a CGE Assessment Author-Name: Sébastien Jean Author-Name: David Laborde Keywords: CGEM;Regional integration;Trade policy;International trade;Models Classification-JEL:R13;D58;F13 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2004-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2004/wp2004-20.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2004-20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: La compétitivité de l’agriculture et des industries agroalimentaires dans le Mercosur et l’Union européenne dans une perspective de libéralisation commerciale Author-Name: Nanno Mulder Author-Name: Alexandre Vialou Author-Name: Beatriz David Author-Name: Monica Rodriguez Author-Name: Marta Castilho Keywords: Classification-JEL:F13;O52;O54;Q17 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2004-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2004/wp2004-19.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2004-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Multilateral Agricultural Trade Liberalization: The Contrasting Fortunes of Developing Countries in the Doha Round Author-Name: Antoine Bouët Author-Name: Jean-Christophe Bureau Author-Name: Yvan Decreux Author-Name: Sébastien Jean Keywords: CGEM;Doha;Agriculture;Tariffs;FDI;Models;International trade models and databases;Trade negotiations Classification-JEL:F12;F13;D58;Q17 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2004-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2004/wp2004-18.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2004-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: UK in or UK Out? A Common Cycle Analysis Between the UK and the Euro Zone Author-Name: Julien Garnier Keywords: Euro area;EMS;Optimum currency area;Monetary integration;Monetary system;Monetary block Classification-JEL:E32;F02;F40 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2004-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2004/wp2004-17.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2004-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Regionalism and the Regionalisation of International Trade Author-Name: Guillaume Gaulier Author-Name: Sébastien Jean Author-Name: Deniz Ünal-Kesenci Keywords: Classification-JEL:F14;F15 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2004-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2004/wp2004-16.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2004-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Stock-Flow Approach to the Real Exchange Rate of CEE Transition Economies Author-Name: Balazs Egert Author-Name: Amina Lahrèche-Révil Author-Name: Kirsten Lommatzsch Keywords: Exchange rate;enlargement;Productivity;panel;Foreign exchange markets;International comparison;Transition;Exchange rate policy Classification-JEL:c15;E31;F31;O11;P17 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2004-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2004/wp2004-15.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2004-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Vieillissement démographique, épargne et retraite : une analyse à l’aide d’un modèle d’équilibre général à agents hétérogènes Author-Name: Catherine Bac Author-Name: Jean Chateau Keywords: Classification-JEL:H51;J10;E20;C68 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2004-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2004/wp2004-14.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2004-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Burden Sharing and Exchange-Rate Misalignments within the Group of Twenty Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Pascale Duran-Vigneron Author-Name: Amina Lahrèche-Revil Author-Name: Mignon, Valerie Keywords: Debt;Exchange rate;Current accounts Classification-JEL:F32;F33;F36 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2004-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2004/wp2004-13.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2004-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Regulation and Wage Premia Author-Name: Sébastien Jean Author-Name: Giuseppe Nicoletti Keywords: Regulation;Competition;Wages;International comparison;Models Classification-JEL:J31;L51;C23 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2004-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2004/wp2004-12.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2004-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Efficiency of Fiscal Policies: a Survey of the Literature Author-Name: Stéphane Capet Keywords: Tax and budget policy Classification-JEL:H30;E62 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2004-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2004/wp2004-11.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2004-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: La réforme du marché du travail en Allemagne : les enseignements d’une maquette Author-Name: Stéphane Capet Keywords: Classification-JEL:J32;J64;C68;J20;P23 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2004-08 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2004/wp2004-10.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2004-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Typologie et équivalence des systèmes de retraites Author-Name: Pierre Villa Keywords: Classification-JEL:I30;J26;E25;J10 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2004-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2004/wp2004-09.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2004-09 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: South – South Trade: Geography Matters Author-Name: Souleymane Coulibaly Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Keywords: International trade;Models;Transportation;Regional integration Classification-JEL:F11;F15;O55 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2004-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2004/wp2004-08.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2004-08 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Current Accounts Dynamics in new EU members: Sustainability and Policy Issues Author-Name: Paolo Zanghieri Keywords: Current accounts;System of payments;International money and finance;Transition;enlargement;Macroeconomics Classification-JEL:F32;F33;F41;P20 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2004-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2004/wp2004-07.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2004-07 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Incertitude radicale et choix du modèle Author-Name: Pierre Villa Keywords: Classification-JEL:H00 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2004-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2004/wp2004-06.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2004-06 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Does Exchange Rate Regime Explain Differences in Economic Results for Asian Countries? Author-Name: Virginie Coudert Author-Name: Marc Dubert Keywords: Exchange rate regime;Growth;Exchange rate policy;Inflation;Monetary policy Classification-JEL:F33;E42;E52 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2004-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2004/wp2004-05.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2004-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Trade in the Triad: How Easy is the Access to Large Markets? Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Thierry Mayer Author-Name: Soledad Zignago Keywords: Border effects;Gravity model;International trade;Simulation;Tariffs;Market access;NTB;Opening-up Classification-JEL:F12;F15 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2004-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2004/wp2004-04.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2004-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Technology Differences, Institutions and Economic Growth: a Conditional Conditional Convergence Author-Name: Hervé Boulhol Keywords: Technology transfers;Productivity;Growth;Macroeconomics;International comparison;International integration;Convergence Classification-JEL:O11;O33;O47 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2004-02 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2004/wp2004-02.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2004-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Croissance et régimes d'investissement Author-Name: Pierre Villa Keywords: Classification-JEL:D50;E10 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2004-01 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2004/wp2004-01.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2004-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: A New Look at the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle using an Integrated Panel Author-Name: Anindya Banerjee Author-Name: Paolo Zanghieri Keywords: Savings;Investment;Capital mobility;Capital markets;Models;Macroeconomics;Econometrics Classification-JEL:C31;C33;F32;F41 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2003-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2003/wp2003-22.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2003-22 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Trade Linkages and Exchange Rates in Asia: The Role of China Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Amina Lahrèche-Revil Keywords: Exchange rate regime;International trade;International integration;Exchange rate policy;Regional integration;Yuan Classification-JEL:F15;F31;F33;O53 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2003-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2003/wp2003-21.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2003-21 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Economic Implications of Trade Liberalization Under the Doha Round Author-Name: Joseph Francois Author-Name: Hans van Meijl Keywords: WTO;Doha;Trade liberalization;services;International trade;CGEM Classification-JEL:F13;F40;F12 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2003-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2003/wp2003-20.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2003-20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Methodological Tools for SIA Author-Name: Nina Kousnetzoff Keywords: accession countries;Agriculture;Trade liberalization;Market access;CGEM;Enlargement of the euro area;Environment;Sustainable development Classification-JEL:b41;C68;D58;F13;J22 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2003-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2003/wp2003-19.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2003-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Order Flows, Delta Hedging and Exchange Rate Dynamics Author-Name: Bronka Rzepkowski Keywords: Models;Exchange rate;Financial markets;Econometric methods;Derivatives markets Classification-JEL:F31;D40;D82;D84;G13 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2003-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2003/wp2003-18.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2003-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Tax Competition and Foreign Direct Investment Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Amina Lahrèche-Revil Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Keywords: Tax competition;Tax and budget policy;FDI Classification-JEL:F21;H25;H87 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2003-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2003/wp2003-17.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2003-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Commerce et transfert de technologies : les cas comparés de la Turquie, de l'Inde et de la Chine Author-Name: Françoise Lemoine Author-Name: Deniz Ünal-Kesenci Keywords: Classification-JEL:F10;F13;F14;F15;O57 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2003-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2003/wp2003-16.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2003-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Trade and Technology Transfers: a Comparative Study of Turkey, India and China Author-Name: Françoise Lemoine Author-Name: Deniz Ünal-Kesenci Keywords: International trade;Trade policy;Specialization;IDPP;Technology transfers;International comparison;Globalization Classification-JEL:F10;F13;F14;F15;O57 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2003-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2003/wp2003-16.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2003-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Empirics of Agglomeration and Trade Author-Name: Thierry Mayer Author-Name: Keith Head Keywords: International integration;New Economic Geography;International trade Classification-JEL:F12;F15 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2003-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2003/wp2003-15.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2003-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Notional Defined Contribution : a Comparison of the French and the German Point Systems Author-Name: Florence Legros Keywords: Pensions;Labor market;International comparison;Demoeconomics Classification-JEL:H55;J22;J26 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2003-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2003/wp2003-14.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2003-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: How Different is Eastern Europe? Structure and Determinants of Location Choices by French Firms in Eastern and Western Europe Author-Name: Anne-Celia Disdier Author-Name: Thierry Mayer Keywords: FDI;Eastern Europe;Relocation;International firms;Globalization;CEECs Classification-JEL:F23;R30 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2003-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2003/wp2003-13.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2003-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Market Access Liberalisation in the Doha Round: Scenarios and Assessment Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Jean-Louis Guérin Author-Name: Sébastien Jean Keywords: Market access;Doha;Tariffs;CGEM;Trade policy;Trade negotiations;Protection;International trade Classification-JEL:D58;F12;F13 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2003-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2003/wp2003-12.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2003-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: On the Adequacy of Monetary Arrangements in Sub-Saharian Africa Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Maylis Coupet Keywords: Monetary block;Franc CFA zone;Optimum currency area Classification-JEL:F33 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2003-08 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2003/wp2003-11.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2003-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Impact of EU Enlargement on Member States: a CGE Approach Author-Name: Mohamed Hedi Bchir Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Paolo Zanghieri Keywords: European enlargement;accession countries;CGEM;Competition;Factor costs;Wages;Relocation;CAP Classification-JEL:F15;F14;F17 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2003-08 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2003/wp2003-10.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2003-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: India in the World Economy: Traditional Specialisations and Technology Niches Author-Name: Sophie Chauvin Author-Name: Françoise Lemoine Keywords: Trade policy;Specialization;FDI Classification-JEL:O53;F13;F14;F21 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2003-08 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2003/wp2003-09.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2003-09 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Imitation Amongst Exchange-Rate Forecasters: Evidence from Survey Data Author-Name: Michel Beine Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Hélène Colas Keywords: Exchange rate;Forecasting;Foreign exchange markets;Key currencies Classification-JEL:F31 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2003-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2003/wp2003-08.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2003-08 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Le Currency Board à travers l'expérience de l'Argentine Author-Name: Sophie Chauvin Author-Name: Pierre Villa Keywords: Classification-JEL:E50;E60 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2003-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2003/wp2003-07.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2003-07 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Trade and Convergence: Revisiting Ben-David Author-Name: Guillaume Gaulier Keywords: International trade;Convergence;International comparison Classification-JEL:F15;O40 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2003-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2003/wp2003-06.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2003-06 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Estimating the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate of Central and Eastern European Countries; The EMU Enlargement Perspective Author-Name: Balazs Egert Author-Name: Amina Lahrèche-Revil Keywords: Exchange rate regime;Exchange rate;CEECs;EMU;Enlargement of the euro area;European monetary integration;Transition;Econometrics Classification-JEL:C31;F31;F33 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2003-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2003/wp2003-05.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2003-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Skills, Technology and Growth is ICT the Key to Success ? An Analysis of ICT Impact on French Growth Author-Name: Johanna Melka Author-Name: Nanno Mulder Author-Name: Laurence Nayman Author-Name: Soledad Zignago Keywords: ICT;Growth;Labor market;Factor markets;New economy;International integration Classification-JEL:J21;J23;J31;L63;O47 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2003-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2003/wp2003-04.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2003-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: L’investissement en TIC aux Etat-Unis et dans quelques pays européens Author-Name: Gilbert Cette Author-Name: Pierre-Alexandre Noual Keywords: Classification-JEL:E22;O47;O57;R34 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2003-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2003/wp2003-03.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2003-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Can Business and Social Networks Explain the Border Effect Puzzle? Author-Name: Pierre-Philippe Combes Author-Name: Miren Lafourcade Author-Name: Thierry Mayer Keywords: Border effects;Gravity model;Simulation;International trade;International integration Classification-JEL:F12;F15;F10 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2003-01 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2003/wp2003-02.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2003-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Hyperinflation and the Reconstruction of a National Money: Argentina and Brazil, 1990-2002 Author-Name: Jérôme Sgard Keywords: Inflation;Monetary policy;Currency board;Exchange rate regime;Exchange rate policy;Dollarization Classification-JEL:E31;E42;E65 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2003-01 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2003/wp2003-01.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2003-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: MIRAGE, a Computable General Equilibrium Model for Trade Policy Analysis Author-Name: Mohamed Hedi Bchir Author-Name: Yvan Decreux Author-Name: Jean-Louis Guérin Author-Name: Sébastien Jean Keywords: CGEM;Models;Trade policy;International trade;FDI;Investment;Globalization;International integration Classification-JEL:D58;F12;F13;F21;F15 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2002-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2002/wp2002-17.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2002-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Evolutions démographiques et marché du travail : des liens complexes parfois contradictoires Author-Name: Loïc Cadiou Author-Name: Julien Genet Author-Name: Jean-Louis Guérin Keywords: Classification-JEL:J10;J31;J41;J14 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2002-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2002/wp2002-16.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2002-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Exchange Rate Regimes and Sustainable Parities for CEECs in the Run-up to EMU Membership Author-Name: Virginie Coudert Author-Name: Cécile Couharde Keywords: Exchange rate;Exchange rate policy;Transition;International integration;Enlargement of the euro area;European monetary integration;CEECs Classification-JEL:F33;E42;F31;E52;F36 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2002-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2002/wp2002-15.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2002-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: When are Structural Deficits Good Policies? Author-Name: Jean Chateau Keywords: Models;Tax and budget policy;Growth;Econometrics;Economic policy;Investment Classification-JEL:D90;E62;H40;H60 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2002-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2002/wp2002-14.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2002-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Projections démographiques de quelques pays de l'Union européenne (Allemagne, France, Italie, Royaume-Uni, Pays-Bas, Suède) Author-Name: Rakhsat Sleiman Keywords: Classification-JEL:J11;J13;J14 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2002-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2002/wp2002-13.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2002-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Regional Trade Integration in Southern Africa Author-Name: Sophie Chauvin Author-Name: Guillaume Gaulier Keywords: Trade policy;Simulation;FTA;Regional integration;Indicators;International trade;RCA;Comparative advantages Classification-JEL:O55;F15;F17;F10 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2002-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2002/wp2002-12.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2002-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Demographic Evolutions and Unemployment: an Analysis of French Labour Market with Workers Generations Author-Name: Jean Chateau Author-Name: Jean-Louis Guérin Author-Name: Florence Legros Keywords: FACTOR MARKETS;Labor market;Unemployment;DEMOECONOMICS;demography;Ageing;MODELS;Econometrics Classification-JEL:J10;J41;J64;E24;H55 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2002-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2002/wp2002-11.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2002-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Liquidité et passage de la valeur Author-Name: Pierre Villa Keywords: Classification-JEL:E00;E60;E50;E21;E42 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2002-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2002/wp2002-10.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2002-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Le concept de coût d'usage Putty-Clay des biens durables Author-Name: Marie-Gabriel Foggea Author-Name: Pierre Villa Keywords: Classification-JEL:E24;C10;E22;F23;C50 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2002-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2002/wp2002-09.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2002-09 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Mondialisation et régionalisation : le cas des industries du textile et de l'habillement Author-Name: Michel Fouquin Author-Name: Pascal Morand Author-Name: Richard Avisse Author-Name: Gildas Minvielle Author-Name: Philippe Dumont Keywords: Classification-JEL:F13;F14;F15;D58;N67 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2002-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2002/wp2002-08.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2002-08 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Survival of Intermediate Exchange Rate Regimes Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Benoit Coeuré Keywords: Exchange rate regime;MODELS;Foreign exchange markets;Monetary policy;Monetary system;economic policy Classification-JEL:F33;F31;E50;C50;E42 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2002-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2002/wp2002-07.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2002-07 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Pensions and Savings in a Monetary Union: an Analysis of Capital Flows Author-Name: Alain Jousten Author-Name: Florence Legros Keywords: Savings;pension funds;DEMOECONOMICS;Pensions;FINANCIAL MARKETS;Capital movements;Capital markets;FACTOR MARKETS Classification-JEL:J26;F41;G23;H55;F23 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2002-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2002/wp2002-06.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2002-06 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Brazil and Mexico's Manufacturing Performance in International Perspective, 1970-1999 Author-Name: Nanno Mulder Author-Name: Sylvie Montout Author-Name: Luis Peres Keywords: INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON;Unit labor cost;FACTOR costs;Productivity;Sectors;Industry;FACTOR MARKETS;Economic policy Classification-JEL:L60;O40;J30 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2002-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2002/wp2002-05.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2002-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Impact of Central Bank Intervention on Exchange-Rate Forecast Heterogeneity Author-Name: Michel Beine Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Estelle Dauchy Author-Name: Ronald MacDonald Keywords: Central bank;FOREIGN EXHANGE MARKETS;Key currencies;Dollar;Yen;Euro;FORECASTING;MONETARY POLICY Classification-JEL:E58;F31;C42;E50 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2002-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2002/wp2002-04.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2002-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Impacts économiques et sociaux de l'élargissement pour l'Union européenne et la France Author-Name: Mohamed Hedi Bchir Author-Name: Mathilde Maurel Keywords: Classification-JEL:F15;C68;O40 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2002-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2002/wp2002-03.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2002-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: China in the International Segmentation of Production Processes Author-Name: Françoise Lemoine Author-Name: Deniz Ünal-Kesenci Keywords: trade policy;specialization;ispp;technology transfer;International Trade;ECONOMIC COOPERATION;Globalization Classification-JEL:F13;F14;F15;O53 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2002-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2002/wp2002-02.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2002-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Illusory Border Effects: Distance Mismeasurement Inflates Estimates of Home Bias in Trade Author-Name: Thierry Mayer Author-Name: Keith Head Keywords: Border effects;gravity model;International Trade;regional integration;Simulations;Trade policy;MODELS;Market access Classification-JEL:F12;F15;F17;F14;F13 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2002-01 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2002/wp2002-01.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2002-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Croissance économique mondiale : un scénario de référence à l'horizon 2030 Author-Name: Nina Kousnetzoff Keywords: Classification-JEL:E13;E17;O41;O47;O50 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2001-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2001/wp2001-21.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2001-21 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Fiscal Stabilization Policy under EMU - An Empirical Assessment Author-Name: Arjan Kadareja Keywords: Stability and growth pact;Tax and budget policy;Econometric methods;Macroeconomics;Models Classification-JEL:E63;C15;C51;E60;C50 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2001-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2001/wp2001-20.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2001-20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Direct Foreign Investments and Productivity Growth in Hungarian Firms, 1992-1999 Author-Name: Jérôme Sgard Keywords: FDI;productivity;INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON;Investment;GLOBALIZATION Classification-JEL:G14;F21;L11;P31 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2001-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2001/wp2001-19.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2001-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Market Access Maps: A Bilateral and Disaggregated Measure of Market Access Author-Name: Antoine Bouët Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Mondher Mimouni Author-Name: Xavier Pichot Keywords: Protection;market access;ECONOMETRIC METHODS;tariffs;NTB;International Trade;MAcMaps;Trade policy Classification-JEL:F02;F13;F15;F18 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2001-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2001/wp2001-18.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2001-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Macroeconomic Consequences of Pension Reforms in Europe: an Investigation with the INGENUE World Model Author-Name: INGENUE Author-Name: Michel Aglietta Keywords: CGEM;demography;Capital movements;INGENUE;DEMOECONOMICS;MODELS;GROWTH;FACTOR MARKETS Classification-JEL:F21;C68;D91;H55 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2001-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2001/wp2001-17.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2001-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: La productivité des industries méditerranéennes Author-Name: Agnès Chevallier Author-Name: Deniz Ünal-Kesenci Keywords: Classification-JEL:E31;J30;L60;O57 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2001-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2001/wp2001-16.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2001-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: MARMOTTE : a Multinational Model Author-Name: CEPII Author-Name: CEPREMAP Keywords: MARMOTTE;CGEM;Macroeconomics;Models;Economic policy;Euro;Econometrics Classification-JEL:C51;C68;E10;D58;C10 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2001-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2001/wp2001-15.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2001-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The French-German Productivity Comparison Revisited : Ten Years after the German Unification Author-Name: Laurence Nayman Author-Name: Deniz Ünal-Kesenci Keywords: Prices;Productivity;Unit labor cost;Growth;German reunification;International Trade;INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON;Factor costs Classification-JEL:E31;F10;J30;L60;O47 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2001-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2001/wp2001-14.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2001-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Nature of Specialization Matters for Growth: an Empirical Investigation Author-Name: Isabelle Bensidoun Author-Name: Guillaume Gaulier Author-Name: Deniz Ünal-Kesenci Keywords: growth;ECONOMETRIC METHODS;Opening-up;trade policy;specialization;Economic policy;International Trade;Market access Classification-JEL:C33;F10;O41 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2001-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2001/wp2001-13.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2001-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Political Economy of the Nice Treaty: Rebalancing the EU Council Author-Name: Forum Franco Allemand Keywords: Nice Treaty;European enlargement Classification-JEL:E60;F15;F02 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2001-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2001/wp2001-12.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2001-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Future of European Agricultural Policies Author-Name: Forum Franco Allemand Keywords: CAP;Agriculture;Transmission;European monetary integration;TAX AND BUDGET POLICY;Sectors;INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON;International Trade Classification-JEL:F42;F02;H00;F20;O13 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2001-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2001/wp2001-12.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2001-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Sector Sensitivity to Exchange Rate Fluctuations Author-Name: Michel Fouquin Author-Name: Nanno Mulder Author-Name: Laurence Nayman Author-Name: Khalid Sekkat Author-Name: Joffrey Malek Mansour Keywords: Exchange rate;Foreign exchange markets;International Money and Finance;Manufacturing;Sectors;International Trade;Single market;INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON Classification-JEL:F14;F40;F31;F10;E42 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2001-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2001/wp2001-11.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2001-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: A First Assessment of Environment-Related Trade Barriers Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Friedrich von Kirchbach Author-Name: Mondher Mimouni Keywords: Trade policy;Environment;Protection;NTB;Market access;Economic policy;Doha;International trade Classification-JEL:F13;F18;Q01;F10;F14 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2001-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2001/wp2001-10.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2001-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: International Trade and Rent Sharing in Developed and Developing countries Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Daniel Mirza Keywords: Market access;Opening-up;Simulation;Wages;International Trade;Trade policy;Doha;Factor costs Classification-JEL:F10;L10;J30 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2001-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2001/wp2001-09.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2001-09 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Economie de la transition : le dossier Author-Name: Gérard Wild Keywords: Classification-JEL:F00;P00;P30;P20;E63 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2001-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2001/wp2001-08.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2001-08 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Exit Options for Argentina with a Special Focus on Their Impact on External Trade Author-Name: Sophie Chauvin Keywords: International trade;Exchange rate regime;International Money and Finance;Monetary policy;Currency board;Exchange rate policy;Dollarization;Gravity model Classification-JEL:F10;F30;O54;F14;E42 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2001-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2001/wp2001-07.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2001-07 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Effet frontière, intégration économique et "Forteresse Europe" Author-Name: Keith Head Author-Name: Thierry Mayer Keywords: Classification-JEL:F12;F15;F14;F17 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2001-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2001/wp2001-06.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2001-06 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Pension Reforms between Economic and Political Problems Author-Name: Forum Franco Allemand Keywords: Income;Demography;Pensions;Ageing;Demoeconomics;Pension funds;Financial markets;International Money and Finance Classification-JEL:H55;J10;J26;J14;G23 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2001-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2001/wp2001-05.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2001-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: EU Labour Markets Author-Name: Forum Franco Allemand Keywords: European enlargement;labor market;associated countries;FACTOR MARKETS;Income;DEMOECONOMICS;Human capital Classification-JEL:J00;R23 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2001-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2001/wp2001-05.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2001-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Discrimination commerciale : une mesure à partir des flux bilatéraux Author-Name: Guillaume Gaulier Keywords: Classification-JEL:c23;f13;f14;O57;F17 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2001-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2001/wp2001-04.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2001-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Heterogeneous Expectations, Currency Options and the Euro / Dollar Exchange Rate Author-Name: Bronka Rzepkowski Keywords: exchange rate;Models;Key currencies;contagion;Dollar;Portfolio;BEHAVIOUR OF ECONOMIC AGENTS;Euro Classification-JEL:E42;E58;F41;F47 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2001-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2001/wp2001-03.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2001-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Defining Consumption Behaviour in a Multi-Country Model Author-Name: Olivier Allais Author-Name: Loic Cadiou Author-Name: Stéphane Dees Keywords: Models;Behaviour of economic agents;Consumption;MARMOTTE;International comparison;International integration Classification-JEL:C33;C51;E21;E44 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2001-02 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2001/wp2001-02.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2001-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Trade Rules and Global Governance: A Long Term Agenda Author-Name: Forum Franco Allemand Keywords: Trade policy;Governance;Globalization;International Trade;Doha;Monetary policy;Trade negotiations;Economic Policy Classification-JEL:F10;F40;F13;G30;E50 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2000-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2000/wp2000-22.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2000-22 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Future of Banking in Europe Author-Name: Forum Franco Allemand Keywords: Banking system;Corporate finance;International integration;Regional integration;Transmission;European monetary integration Classification-JEL:F30;G30;D70;F42;F15 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2000-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2000/wp2000-22.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2000-22 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Wage Curve: The Lessons of an Estimation Over a Panel of Countries Author-Name: Stéphanie Guichard Author-Name: Jean-Pierre Laffargue Keywords: Models;marmotte;Wages;Income;Economic policy Classification-JEL:c33;j30;E24;E60 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2000-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2000/wp2000-21.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2000-21 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: A computable General Equilibrium Model with Vintage Capital Author-Name: Loïc Cadiou Author-Name: Stéphane Dées Author-Name: Jean-Pierre Laffargue Keywords: Models;marmotte;CGEM Classification-JEL:c68;c63;e22 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2000-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2000/wp2000-20.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2000-20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Consumption Habit and Equity Premium in the G7 Countries Author-Name: Olivier Allais Author-Name: Loic Cadiou Author-Name: Stéphane Dees Keywords: Behaviour of economic agents;MARMOTTE;Consumption;Factor markets;Economic policy;Models;Econometrics Classification-JEL:C13;e21;e44;G12;C50 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2000-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2000/wp2000-19.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2000-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Capital Stock and Productivity in French Transport : An International Comparison Author-Name: Bernard Chane-Küne Author-Name: Nanno Mulder Keywords: Factor markets;international comparison;transportation;International integration;Sectors;Productivity Classification-JEL:D24;L91;P23;F15;F14 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2000-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2000/wp2000-18.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2000-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: La gestion des crises de liquidité internationale : logique de faillite, prêteur en dernier ressort et conditionnalité Author-Name: Jérôme Sgard Keywords: Classification-JEL:e44;f33;f34;G21;F20 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2000-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2000/wp2000-16.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2000-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: La mesure des protections commerciales nationales Author-Name: Antoine Bouët Keywords: Classification-JEL:f12;F10;C68;F17 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2000-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2000/wp2000-15.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2000-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Convergence of Automobile Prices in the European Union: an Empirical Analysis for the Period 1993-1999 Author-Name: Guillaume Gaulier Author-Name: Séverine Haller Keywords: Regional integration;Models;International comparison;Convergence;Single market;automobile;International trade Classification-JEL:c23;F15;l62;F14 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2000-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2000/wp2000-14.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2000-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: International Trade and Firms’ Heterogeneity Under Monopolistic Competition Author-Name: Sébastien Jean Keywords: Monopolistic Competition;firms heterogeneity;product differentiation;Specialization;International trade;International trade models and databases;Globalization;International firms Classification-JEL:F12;L11;F10;F23 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2000-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2000/wp2000-13.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2000-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Syndrome, miracle, modèle polder et autres spécificités néerlandaises Author-Name: Sébastien Jean Keywords: Classification-JEL:J20;J30;J50 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2000-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2000/wp2000-12.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2000-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: FDI and the Opening Up of China's Economy Author-Name: Françoise Lemoine Keywords: FDI;Opening Up;international trade;WTO;trade policy;Market access;transition economies;international agreements Classification-JEL:f13;f14;f15;P20;F21 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2000-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2000/wp2000-11.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2000-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Big and Small Currencies: The Regional Connection Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Benoit Coeuré Keywords: exchange rate regime;Monetary block;currency board;dollarisation;euro zone;regional integration;Exchange rate policy;Monetary system Classification-JEL:f33;F36;E50;E42;F15 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2000-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2000/wp2000-10.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2000-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Structural Changes in Asia and Growth Prospects After the Crisis Author-Name: Jean-Claude Berthelémy Author-Name: Sophie Chauvin Keywords: growth;Banking system;crisis;factor productivity;Factor markets;System of payments Classification-JEL:O47;O53;G21;P23;E42 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2000-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2000/wp2000-09.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2000-09 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The International Monetary Fund and the International Financial Architecture Author-Name: Michel Aglietta Keywords: finance;debt crisis;conditionality;adjustment;international liquidity;IMF;Banking system;International lending Classification-JEL:F20;f33;F34;G21;E42 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2000-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2000/wp2000-08.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2000-08 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Effect of International Trade on Labour Demand Elasticities: Intersectoral Matters Author-Name: Sébastien Jean Keywords: International Trade;Labor demand elasticity;specialization;Factor markets;Economic policy;Labor market;Factor costs;Growth Classification-JEL:F15;F10;P23;J23;J20 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2000-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2000/wp2000-07.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2000-07 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Foreign Direct Investment and the Prospects for Tax Co-Ordination in Europe Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Amina Lahrèche-Revil Keywords: european integration;tax competition;tax harmonization;FDI;European monetary integration;Tax and budget policy;Investment;Globalization Classification-JEL:F21;H25;H87;F15;E63 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2000-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2000/wp2000-06.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2000-06 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Economic Growth in Europe: Entering a New Era? Author-Name: Forum Franco Allemand Keywords: Regional integration;growth Classification-JEL:E00;O52 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2000-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2000/wp2000-05.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2000-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The First Year of EMU Author-Name: Forum Franco Allemand Keywords: Central bank;Key currencies;Foreign exchange markets;monetary policy;ECB;euro;Monetary system;Economic policy Classification-JEL:E00;E50;O50 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2000-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2000/wp2000-05.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2000-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Expectations of Hong Kong Dollar Devaluation and Their Determinants Author-Name: Bronka Rzepkowski Keywords: Exchange rate policy;Banking system;Econometrics;currency board;contagion;crisis;Devaluation;Econometric methods Classification-JEL:e42;e58;f41;E10 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2000-02 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2000/wp2000-04.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2000-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: What Drove Relative Wages in France? Structural Decomposition Analysis in a General Equilibrium Framework, 1970-1992 Author-Name: Olivier Bontout Author-Name: Sébastien Jean Keywords: CGEM;international trade;International integration;Wages;productivity;Factor costs;Models;Econometrics Classification-JEL:D58;F17;F10;C68 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2000-01 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2000/wp2000-03.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2000-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Le passage des retraites de la répartition à la capitalisation obligatoire : des simulations à l'aide s'une maquette calibrée Author-Name: Ottilia Rouguet Author-Name: Pierre Villa Keywords: Classification-JEL:J10;J14;J26;C10;I30 Abstract: Creation-Date: 2000-01 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2000/wp2000-02.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2000-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Exchange Rate Strategies in the Competition for Attracting FDI Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Amina Lahrèche-Revil Keywords: FDI;exchange rate regime;currency blocks;exchange rate policy;exchange rate;FDI Classification-JEL:f21;f23;f31;F33 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1999-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1999/wp1999-16.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1999-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Groupe d'Échanges et de Réflexion sur la Caspienne Author-Name: Dominique Pianelli Author-Name: Georges Sokoloff Keywords: Classification-JEL:Q40;P20;F15;F10;F14 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1999-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1999/wp1999-15.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1999-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Impact of Foreign Exchange Interventions: New Evidence from FIGARCH Estimations Author-Name: Michel Beine Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Christelle Lecourt Keywords: finance;model;exchange rate;Deutschmark;finance;Bundestbank;central bank;exchange rate policy Classification-JEL:f31;e58;C60 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1999-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1999/wp1999-14.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1999-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Eastward Enlargement of the European Union Author-Name: Forum Franco Allemand Keywords: european integration;Enlargement Classification-JEL:F10;F40 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1999-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1999/wp1999-13.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1999-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Reduction of Working Time Author-Name: French-German Economic Forum Keywords: european integration;Unemployment;working time Classification-JEL:J20;E24 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1999-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1999/wp1999-13.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1999-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: A Lender of Last Resort for Europe Author-Name: Michel Aglietta Keywords: finance;Lender of Last Resort;EMU;supervision;liquidity crisis;safety net;system risk;Maastricht Classification-JEL:E50;F30 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1999-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1999/wp1999-12.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1999-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: La diversité des marchés du travail en Europe : Quelles conséquences pour l'Union Monétaire Author-Name: Loïc Cadiou Author-Name: Stéphanie Guichard Author-Name: Mathilde Maurel Keywords: Classification-JEL:e24;j50;j60;o52;P23 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1999-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1999/wp1999-11.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1999-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Marchés du travail en Europe : Quelles conséquences pour l'Union Monétaire Author-Name: Loïc Cadiou Author-Name: Stéphanie Guichard Keywords: Classification-JEL:e24;j50;j60;o52;E60 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1999-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1999/wp1999-10.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1999-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Role of External Variables in the Chinese Economy Author-Name: Stéphane Dées Keywords: model;macroeconomic model;exchange rate;transition economies;FDI Classification-JEL:c51;c53;o11 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1999-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1999/wp1999-09.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1999-09 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Haute technologie et échelles de qualité : de fortes asymétries en Europe Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Michaël Freudenberg Author-Name: Deniz Ünal-Kesenci Keywords: Classification-JEL:F14;O33;O52;F10 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1999-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1999/wp1999-08.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1999-08 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Role of Capital Accumulation, Adjustment and Structural Change for Economic Take-Off: Empirical Evidence from African Growth Episodes Author-Name: Jean-Claude Berthelémy Author-Name: Ludvig Soderling Keywords: Factor markets;factor productivity;growth Classification-JEL:o47;o55 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1999-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1999/wp1999-07.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1999-07 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Enterprise Adjustment and the Role of Bank Credit in Russia: Evidence from a 420 Firm's Qualitative Survey Author-Name: Sophie Brana Author-Name: Mathilde Maurel Author-Name: Jérôme Sgard Keywords: finance;Credit;adjustment;multiple choice analysis Classification-JEL:G30;L10;g21 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1999-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1999/wp1999-06.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1999-06 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Central and Eastern European Countries in the International Division of Labour in Europe Author-Name: Michaël Freudenberg Author-Name: Françoise Lemoine Keywords: idpp;comparative advantage;foreign investment;Intra-Industry Trade;transition economies;simulation;transition economies Classification-JEL:f14;f15;f21;f17;P20 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1999-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1999/wp1999-05.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1999-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Economic Policy Coordination Author-Name: Forum Franco Allemand Keywords: european integration;monetary integration;policy coordination;supervision;European Monetary union EMU;stability pact;European central bank ECB Classification-JEL:K20;E60;H70 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1999-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1999/wp1999-04.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1999-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Financial Supervision in the EMU Author-Name: Forum Franco Allemand Keywords: european integration;monetary integration;policy coordination;supervision;ECB;stability pact Classification-JEL:E60 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1999-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1999/wp1999-04.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1999-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Models of Exchange Rate Expectations: Heterogeneous Evidence from Panel Data Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Sophie Larribeau Author-Name: Ronald MacDonald Keywords: finance;panel data;model;expectations;exchange rate;heterogeneity Classification-JEL:C33;D84;F31 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1999-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1999/wp1999-03.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1999-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Tax Policy in the EMU Author-Name: Forum Franco Allemand Keywords: european integration;tax competition;monetary integration Classification-JEL:E60;H30 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1999-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1999/wp1999-02.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1999-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Labor Market in the EMU Author-Name: Forum Franco Allemand Keywords: european integration;labor market;FACTOR costs Classification-JEL:J30 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1999-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1999/wp1999-02.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1999-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Monetary Policy Under a Fixed Exchange Rate Regime, the Case of France 1987-1996 Author-Name: Benoît Mojon Keywords: monetary policy;model;VAR;EMS;exchange rate regime Classification-JEL:E10;E50;F31 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1998-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1998/wp1998-14.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1998-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Wages and Unemployment: Trade-off Under Different Labour Market Paradigms Author-Name: Olivier Bontout Author-Name: Sébastien Jean Keywords: Wages;Unemployment;CGEM;labor market;International trade and labor market;International integration Classification-JEL:F17;D58;J50;F10;C68 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1998-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1998/wp1998-13.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1998-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Structures financières et transmission de la politique monétaire en Europe, analyses comparatives de l’Allemagne, la France, l’Italie et le Royaume-Uni Author-Name: Benoît Mojon Keywords: Classification-JEL:E00;F42;E50;o50;o57 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1998-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1998/wp1998-12.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1998-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Le marché du travail britannique vu de France Author-Name: Michel Fouquin Author-Name: Sébastien Jean Author-Name: Aude Sztulman Keywords: Classification-JEL:J40;J30;o57 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1998-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1998/wp1998-11.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1998-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Compétitivité et régime de change en Europe Centrale Author-Name: Michel Aglietta Author-Name: Camille Baulant Author-Name: Virginie Coudert Keywords: Classification-JEL:F31;O57 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1998-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1998/wp1998-10.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1998-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Sensibilité des salaires relatifs aux chocs exogènes de commerce international et de progrès technique: une évaluation d'équilibre général Author-Name: Olivier Bontout Author-Name: Sébastien Jean Keywords: Classification-JEL:D58;F12;J31;F10;C68 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1998-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1998/wp1998-09.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1998-09 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Evolution sur longue période de l'intensité énergétique Author-Name: Pierre Villa Keywords: Classification-JEL:C80;N70;Q40 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1998-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1998/wp1998-08.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1998-08 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Sacrifice Ratios in Europe: a Comparison Author-Name: Laurence Boone Author-Name: Benoît Mojon Keywords: model;Sacrifice Ratios;central bank;Transmission;convergence;VAR;inflation Classification-JEL:E10;F42;E31;E10;O57 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1998-08 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1998/wp1998-07.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1998-07 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: La politique monétaire et la crise japonaise Author-Name: Stéphanie Guichard Keywords: Classification-JEL:O50;E00;E50 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1998-08 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1998/wp1998-06.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1998-06 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: La régionalisation du commerce international: une évaluation par les intensités relatives bilatérales Author-Name: Michaël Freudenberg Author-Name: Guillaume Gaulier Author-Name: Deniz Ünal-Kesenci Keywords: Classification-JEL:F10;O57;F15;F13;F17 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1998-08 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1998/wp1998-05.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1998-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Pegging the CEECs Currencies to the Euro Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Amina Lahrèche-Revil Keywords: optimum currency area;exchange rate regime;euro;international currency;exchange rate policy;exchange rate Classification-JEL:F31;F33;F36 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1998-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1998/wp1998-04.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1998-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The International Role of the Euro Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Benoît Mojon Author-Name: Armand-Denis Schor Keywords: money;Euro;IMS;international currency;ECB;exchange rate policy;exchange rate Classification-JEL:F30;f33;f31;F36 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1998-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1998/wp1998-03.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1998-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: EMU and Transatlantic Exchange Rate Stability Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Benoît Mojon Keywords: finance;exchange rate;euro;stochastic simulations;dollar;ERM;exchange rate policy;exchange rate regime Classification-JEL:E52;F31;F33;E47;F02 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1998-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1998/wp1998-02.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1998-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Why the Euro will be Strong: an Approach Based on Equilibrium Exchange Rates Author-Name: Michel Aglietta Author-Name: Camille Baulant Author-Name: Virginie Coudert Keywords: euro;exchange rate Classification-JEL:F31 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1997-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1997/wp1997-18.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1997-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: How Foreign Direct Investment Affects International Trade and Competitiveness: an Empirical Assessment Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Michaël Pajot Keywords: ;FDI;International Trade;Competitiveness Classification-JEL:F10;F21;F23;O57 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1997-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1997/wp1997-17.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1997-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Cycles de production industrielle : une analyse historique dans le domaine des fréquences Author-Name: Pierre Villa Keywords: Classification-JEL:C80;C20;E30;C10 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1997-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1997/wp1997-16.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1997-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Internal and External Policy Coordination: a Dynamic Analysis Author-Name: Fabrice Capoën Author-Name: Pierre Villa Keywords: Growth;Coordination;Game theory;Interest rate;Monetary policy;Macroeconomics;Econometrics Classification-JEL:E10;E40;E50;O40;F42 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1997-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1997/wp1997-15.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1997-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Optimal Pegs for Asian Currencies Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Keywords: money;currency peg;optimum currency area;international currency;exchange rate policy;exchange rate regime;exchange rate Classification-JEL:F31;F33;F36 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1997-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1997/wp1997-14.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1997-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Pour ou contre le système commun de TVA ? Author-Name: Stéphanie Guichard Author-Name: Claire Lefebvre Keywords: Classification-JEL:E61;E62 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1997-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1997/wp1997-13.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1997-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Euro and Exchange Rate Stability Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Benoît Mojon Author-Name: Jean Pisani-Ferry Keywords: ERM;Exchange Rate;Euro;model;ECB;exchange rate policy Classification-JEL:E52;F31;F33;E10 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1997-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1997/wp1997-12.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1997-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Estimation du cycle à l'aide d'un modèle à tendance stochastique et application au cas du Royaume-Uni Author-Name: Laurence Boone Keywords: Classification-JEL:E10;O50 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1997-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1997/wp1997-11.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1997-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Looking for French Monetary Policy Author-Name: Benoît Mojon Keywords: ;Monetary Policy;exchange rate;Econometric methods;Foreign exchange markets;Econometrics Classification-JEL:E50;E60 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1997-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1997/wp1997-10.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1997-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Incertitude sur le choix du modèle et rationalité Author-Name: Pierre Villa Keywords: Classification-JEL:H00;E10 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1997-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1997/wp1997-09.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1997-09 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Quel est l'impact du commerce extérieur sur la productivité et l'emploi ? Author-Name: Olivier Cortès Author-Name: Sébastien Jean Keywords: Classification-JEL:F17;D24;J23;F10;F14 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1997-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1997/wp1997-08.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1997-08 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Trade Patterns Inside the Single Market Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Michaël Freudenberg Author-Name: Nicolas Peridy Keywords: single market;trade liberalisation;trade policy;Intra-Industry Trade;european integration;quality;specialization;differenciation Classification-JEL:F15;F12;O52;F14 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1997-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1997/wp1997-07.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1997-07 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Exchange Rate Policy of the Euro: a Matter of Size? Author-Name: Philippe Martin Keywords: exchange rate policy;euro;european integration;game theory;shock;EMS;Economic policy Classification-JEL:F31;C70;F02 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1997-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1997/wp1997-06.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1997-06 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Ces taux de change réels qui bifurquent Author-Name: Pierre Villa Keywords: Classification-JEL:E40;C60 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1997-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1997/wp1997-05.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1997-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Chômage non-qualifié et imitation: les raisons d'un accord international sur la propriété intellectuelle Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Jean-Louis Guérin Keywords: Classification-JEL:O34;F12;F13;F43;F15 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1997-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1997/wp1997-04.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1997-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Symmetry and Asymmetry of Supply and Demand Shocks in the European Union Author-Name: Laurence Boone Keywords: model;convergence;optimum currency area;VAR;shock Classification-JEL:E10 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1997-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1997/wp1997-03.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1997-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Interest Rates in East Asian Countries: Internal Financial Structures and International Linkages Author-Name: Isabelle Bensidoun Author-Name: Virginie Coudert Author-Name: Laurence Nayman Keywords: cointegration;Interest Rates;international integration Classification-JEL:F36 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1997-01 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1997/wp1997-02.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1997-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Intra-Industry Trade: Methodological Issues Reconsidered Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Michaël Freudenberg Keywords: Intra-Industry Trade;comparative advantage;product differentiation;monopolistic competition;model;trade policy;International Trade Classification-JEL:F12;F10;F14 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1997-01 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1997/wp1997-01.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1997-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Cost of Fiscal Retrenchment Revisited: how Strong is the Evidence? Author-Name: Philippine Cour Author-Name: Eric Dubois Author-Name: Selma Mahfouz Author-Name: Jean Pisani-Ferry Keywords: fiscal policy;consumption;ricardian equivalence;model;BEHAVIOUR OF ECONOMIC AGENTS Classification-JEL:E62;E21;C10 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1996-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1996/wp1996-16.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1996-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Les dynamiques sectorielles de la croissance industrielle en Europe Centrale Author-Name: Françoise Lemoine Keywords: Classification-JEL:L60;P20 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1996-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1996/wp1996-15.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1996-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Growth and Agglomeration Author-Name: Philippe Martin Author-Name: Gianmarco Ottaviano Keywords: Growth;model Classification-JEL:O41;R11 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1996-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1996/wp1996-14.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1996-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: La coordination interne et externe des politiques économiques: une analyse dynamique Author-Name: Fabrice Capoën Author-Name: Pierre Villa Keywords: Classification-JEL:E40;C60;C70 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1996-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1996/wp1996-13.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1996-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: L'intégration asymétrique au sein du continent américain : un essai de modélisation Author-Name: Philippine Cour Author-Name: Frédéric Rupprecht Keywords: Classification-JEL:F10;F13;F15 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1996-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1996/wp1996-12.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1996-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Croissance et contraintes financières dans les PED Author-Name: Pierre Villa Keywords: Classification-JEL:D50;O40 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1996-10 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1996/wp1996-11.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1996-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Bulgaria from Enterprise Indiscipline to Financial Crisis Author-Name: Roumen Avramov Author-Name: Jérôme Sgard Keywords: finance;international integration;Enterprise;Financial Crisis;adjustment;insolvency;bankruptcy;transition Classification-JEL:F00;l33 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1996-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1996/wp1996-10.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1996-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Potentialities and Opportunities of the Euro as an International Currency Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Keywords: money;Euro;international currency;dollar;IMS Classification-JEL:F33 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1996-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1996/wp1996-09.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1996-09 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Credit Crisis and the Role of Banks During Transition: a Five-Country Comparison Author-Name: Jérôme Sgard Keywords: finance Classification-JEL: Abstract: Creation-Date: 1996-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1996/wp1996-08.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1996-08 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Exchange Rate Regimes and Policies in Asia Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Keywords: currency peg;exchange rate;exchange rate regime;exchange rate policy;model;dollar Classification-JEL:F36;f31;F33;E10 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1996-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1996/wp1996-07.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1996-07 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: France in the Early Depression of the Thirties Author-Name: Pierre Villa Keywords: gold standard;portfolio model;policy-mix;depression Classification-JEL:B20;C80;N10 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1996-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1996/wp1996-06.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1996-06 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Pays émergents, emploi déficient ? Author-Name: Olivier Cortès Author-Name: Sébastien Jean Keywords: Classification-JEL:F17;D58;F10;C68 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1996-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1996/wp1996-05.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1996-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Trade with Emerging Countries and the Labour Market: The French Case Author-Name: Olivier Cortès Author-Name: Sébastien Jean Author-Name: Jean Pisani-Ferry Keywords: International trade;Labor market;International trade and labor market;Globalization Classification-JEL:F17;J23;J31;F10;F14 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1996-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1996/wp1996-04.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1996-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Transmission of Monetary Policy in the European Countries Author-Name: Fernando Barran Author-Name: Virginie Coudert Author-Name: Benoît Mojon Keywords: Transmission;monetary policy;interest rate;Econometric methods;EMS;Monetary block;Monetary system;International Money and Finance Classification-JEL:F42;E50;C10 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1996-02 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1996/wp1996-03.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1996-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Trade Policy and Trade Patterns During Transition: a Comparison Between China and the CEECs Author-Name: Françoise Lemoine Keywords: Trade Policy;transition economies;Comparison Classification-JEL:F13;F14;O57;P20 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1996-02 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1996/wp1996-02.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1996-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Financial Market Failures and Systemic Risk Author-Name: Michel Aglietta Keywords: finance Classification-JEL: Abstract: Creation-Date: 1996-01 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1996/wp1996-01.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1996-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Why NAFTA Might Be Discriminatory Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Keywords: trade policy;trade diversion effect;discrimination;regionalism;WTO;Marrakech;International Trade Classification-JEL:F13;F12;F10;F14 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1995-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1995/wp1995-12.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1995-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Régionalisation et échanges de biens intermédiaires Author-Name: Lionel Fontagné Author-Name: Michaël Freudenberg Author-Name: Deniz Ünal Keywords: Classification-JEL:F10;F02;F12;F14;F15 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1995-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1995/wp1995-11.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1995-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Geography of Multi-Speed Europe Author-Name: Philippe Martin Author-Name: Gianmarco Ottaviano Keywords: european integration;growth;International comparison Classification-JEL:N90;R11;O57 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1995-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1995/wp1995-10.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1995-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The Political Economy of French Economic Policy and the Transition to EMU Author-Name: Christian de Boissieu Author-Name: Jean Pisani-Ferry Keywords: political economy;economic policy;european integration Classification-JEL:O52;F02 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1995-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1995/wp1995-09.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1995-09 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: L'importance des exclus de l'intégration monétaire en Europe Author-Name: Philippe Martin Keywords: Classification-JEL:F36;C10 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1995-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1995/wp1995-08.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1995-08 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Asymétries financières en Europe et transmission de la politique monétaire Author-Name: Virginie Coudert Author-Name: Benoît Mojon Keywords: Classification-JEL:F42;E50;C10 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1995-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1995/wp1995-07.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1995-07 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: La mesure du capital éducatif Author-Name: Pierre Villa Keywords: Classification-JEL:C80 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1995-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1995/wp1995-06.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1995-06 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Capital humain, mobilité des capitaux et commerce international Author-Name: Pierre Villa Keywords: Classification-JEL:F10;F20 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1995-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1995/wp1995-05.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1995-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: L'Europe à géométrie variable, une analyse économique Author-Name: Jean Pisani-Ferry Keywords: Classification-JEL:F02 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1995-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1995/wp1995-04.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1995-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Comparaison de l'efficacité énergétique des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale avec celle des pays de l'OCDE Author-Name: Nina Kousnetzoff Keywords: Classification-JEL:Q43;O57 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1995-04 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1995/wp1995-03.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1995-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: L'organisation de la politique économique dans un cadre stratégique Author-Name: Pierre Villa Keywords: Classification-JEL:E50;E60;C70 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1995-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1995/wp1995-02.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1995-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Interest Rates, Banking Spreads and Credit Supply: The Real Effects Author-Name: Fernando Barran Author-Name: Virginie Coudert Author-Name: Benoît Mojon Keywords: ;Interest Rates;Banking system;Credit;monetary policy;Statistical tests;Econometrics Classification-JEL:F30;E40;e47;E51 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1995-03 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1995/wp1995-01.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1995-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: L'après CAEM : la dynamique des échanges entre les pays de Visegrad Author-Name: Dominique Pianelli Keywords: Classification-JEL:F10 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1994-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1994/wp1994-16.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1994-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: CEEC Exports to the EC : Country Differentiation and Commodity Diversification Author-Name: Françoise Lemoine Keywords: International Trade;international comparison;commodity differenciation Classification-JEL:F10 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1994-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1994/wp1994-15.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1994-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Union monétaire et convergence : qu'avons nous appris ? Author-Name: Jean Pisani-Ferry Keywords: Classification-JEL: Abstract: Creation-Date: 1994-12 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1994/wp1994-14.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1994-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Chômage et salaire en France sur longue période Author-Name: Pierre Villa Keywords: Classification-JEL:J30;J60 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1994-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1994/wp1994-13.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1994-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Croissance et spécialisation Author-Name: Frédéric Busson Author-Name: Pierre Villa Keywords: Classification-JEL:F10 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1994-11 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1994/wp1994-12.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1994-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: The International Monetary System : in search of New Principles Author-Name: Michel Aglietta Keywords: system of payments;monetary system;IMF Classification-JEL:E42 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1994-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1994/wp1994-11.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1994-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: French and German Productivity Levels in Manufacturing: A Comparison Based on the Industry-of-Origin Method Author-Name: Michaël Freudenberg Author-Name: Deniz Ünal-Kesenci Keywords: relative price level;productivity;unit labor costs;growth;International Trade;INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON;factor costs;sector Classification-JEL:E31;E10;J30;L60;O47 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1994-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1994/wp1994-10.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1994-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: La réunification allemande du point de vue de la politique économique Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Pierre Villa Keywords: Classification-JEL:E65;E63 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1994-09 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1994/wp1994-09.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1994-09 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: La fonction de consommation sur longue période en France Author-Name: Pierre Villa Keywords: Classification-JEL:E20 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1994-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1994/wp1994-07.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1994-07 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Réglementation et prise de risque des intermédiaires financiers Author-Name: Benoît Mojon Keywords: Classification-JEL:G10;E44 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1994-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1994/wp1994-06.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1994-06 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Economic Policy Strategies to Fight Mass Unemployment in Europe : An Appraisal Author-Name: Henri Delessy Author-Name: Henri Sterdyniak Keywords: ;unemployment;labor market;Mimosa;model Classification-JEL:E24;E61 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1994-07 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1994/wp1994-04.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1994-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Transmission de la politique monétaire et crédit, une application à 5 pays de l'OCDE Author-Name: Fernando Barran Author-Name: Virginie Coudert Author-Name: Benoît Mojon Keywords: Classification-JEL:E50;F42;C10 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1994-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1994/wp1994-03.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1994-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Indépendance de la banque centrale et politique budgétaire Author-Name: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré Author-Name: Jean Pisani-Ferry Keywords: Classification-JEL:E58;E42;E63;E61 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1994-06 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1994/wp1994-02.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1994-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Title: Les systèmes de paiements dans l'intégration européenne Author-Name: Michel Aglietta Keywords: Classification-JEL:G21;F36 Abstract: Creation-Date: 1994-05 File-URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/1994/wp1994-01.pdf File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1994-01