TY - CEPII
A1 - Carl Grekou
TI - Currency Misalignments and Economic Growth: The Foreign Currency-Denominated Debt Channel
IS - 2018-12
T3 - Working Papers
KW - Equilibrium Exchange Rate
KW - Currency Misalignments
KW - Debt
KW - Valuation Effects
KW - Economic Growth
N2 - The literature on the growth effects of currency misalignments, although prolifi c, revolves around two main axes: the export-oriented growth literature which attributes positive effects to undervaluations (competitiveness gains) and the Washington Consensus view according to which any deviations from equilibrium hamper economic growth. In this paper, relying on a panel of 70 developing and emerging countries, we evidence the existence of a foreign currencydenominated debt channel through which misalignments impact growth. Compared to the traditional competitiveness channel, this channel works in the opposite direction. In particular, we show that, unlike overvaluations, undervaluations are more likely to cause valuation effects that tend to dampen the competitiveness effect. The paper therefore reconciles the two strands of the literature: undervaluations may have indeed a positive growth effect, but it is crucial to take into account the possible costs related to these undervaluations to have a clearer picture of the net total effect.
ER -