TY - CEPII
A1 - Yifei Cai A1 - Valérie Mignon A1 - Jamel Saadaoui
TI - Not all political relation shocks are alike: Assessing the impacts of US-China tensions on the oil market
IS - 2022-07
T3 - Working Papers
KW - China KW - Oil market KW - Political relations
N2 -
This paper assesses the effects of US-China political tensions on the oil market. Relying on a quantitative measure of these relationships, we investigate how their dynamics impact oil demand, supply, and prices over various periods, starting from 1971 to 2019. To this end, we estimate a structural vector autoregressive model as well as local projections and show that political tensions between the two countries pull down oil demand and raise supply at medium- and long-run horizons. Overall, our findings show that conflicting relationships between these two major players in the oil market may have crucial impacts, such as the development of new strategic partnerships.