Four Roadblocks to a Global Climate Agreement
Post, September 18, 2015By Jean Pisani-Ferry
As the pace of action looks set to rumble on, countries should seek to make progress on resolving several key issues including the free-rider problem.
Post, September 18, 2015By Jean Pisani-Ferry
How to Finance the Low Carbon Transition: The Role of the Financial System
Post, September 17, 2015By Etienne Espagne, Baptiste Perrissin Fabert
The aim of this webpage, co-hosted by France Stratégie and CEPII, is to provide a medium for experts and non-experts to discuss the merits and the limits of the various proposals and initiatives in the field of international finance. It is intended to become a forum where the debate on the financial system’s contribution to the energy transition can flourish.
China: what are the motivations of the recent depreciation of the RMB?
Post, September 14, 2015By Christophe Destais
The decision to change the exchange rate regime of the renminbi taken by the Chinese authorities at the beginning of August might be less a response to the economic downturn than a further step, against all odds, in a bold but risky financial liberalization agenda.
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Was the IMF right to come to the rescue of Greece in 2010?
Post, June 30, 2015By Christophe Destais
Back in 2010, the Eurozone countries insisted a lot that the IMF provides exceptional financing to Greece. They will be duly reminded when the reckoning moment has come.
Structural reforms: why did the term become so "toxic"?
Post, May 29, 2015By Sophie Piton
From May 21 to May 23, the ECB organized its 2nd annual forum on Central banking. Mario Draghi's inaugural speech, as well as discussions on May 23rd, focused mainly on the need for structural reforms to strengthen growth in Europe.
What could be Japan contribution to COP 21?
Post, May 28, 2015By Evelyne Dourille-Feer
Europe was disappointed in the GHG emissions reduction proposal by Japan in the context of the COP 21: -25.4% between 2005 and 2030. Japan could nonetheless help move forward the climate issue by its technologies and original experiences.
The Chinese game of Go in the international financial system
Post, May 12, 2015By Christophe Destais
The rallying of major Western countries to the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank provides yet another illustration of the relevance of the analogy between China's diplomacy and the game of Go aimed at placing pawns patiently to stifle one’s opponents and conquer territories.
Volatility and uncertainty are not the same!
Post, May 4, 2015By Valérie Mignon, Marc Joëts, Tovonony Razafindrabe
Crude oil price volatility is often viewed as reflecting uncertainty not only related to the oil market, but also to the global macroeconomic environment. However, the question arises as to whether uncertainty is not likely to be at play without generating high volatility on the oil market.
Back to the Great Moderation?
Post, April 30, 2015By Stéphane Lhuissier
Following the largest financial shock since the Great Depression, modern industrial countries appear to be coming back to a moderate growth trajectory, as was the case for the last three decades.
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Regulatory coherence is more easily said than done
Post, April 23, 2015By Sébastien Jean
Regulatory coherence is claimed to be the core of the potential economic stakes in the TTIP. As the 9th Round of Negotiations is being convened in New York City, time has come for discussions to take a more concrete form.
Europe is trapped by its competitiveness obsession
Post, April 22, 2015By Sébastien Jean
While European external surpluses are accumulating and domestic demand is slacking, insisting on improving the Union’s external competitiveness, as some in the Commission are presently doing, is paradoxical. For Europe, the paramount risk is not losing its competitiveness. It is not recovering cohesion and growth.
QE - "European style": be bolder, but parsimonious!
Post, March 24, 2015By Urszula Szczerbowicz, Natacha Valla
The ECB will purchase a monthly €60bn of private and public debt instruments between March 2015 and September 2016 – a total worth over €1 trillion. While the timing and size of purchases are known, there is more leeway than it seems in the way purchases are allocated to each category of assets.
Quantitative Easing: were markets surprised?
Post, January 24, 2015By Stéphane Lhuissier
The ECB has announced that it will launch in March its first round of quantitative easing. The announcement contains some good and bad surprises: the size of the ECB's plan is gigantic, while the Central Bank was unclear about the Greek issue. How was this announcement perceived by markets?
ECB equity purchases: too risky, really?
Post, January 9, 2015By Urszula Szczerbowicz, Natacha Valla
Instead of buying sovereign debt, the ECB could broaden further its purchases to include equity of all sorts. Fuelling an equity bubble is no worse than fuelling a bond one. It can be mitigated by intervening secretly and including non listed securities. Inhibitions to take risk should be lifted.
Long live the Juncker Plan!
Post, December 21, 2014By Natacha Valla
The long awaited Juncker Plan for investment in Europe has arrived a few weeks ago. Beyond the creation of a Strategic Fund, the Plan as a whole has disappointed: not adamant enough to eliminate the deep obstacles to cross-border investment, and opaque in generating the “List” of projects to be financed. Yet, even imperfectly, Europe has now done its homework.
Is China finally inhaling the smoke of international financial markets?
Post, December 16, 2014By Christophe Destais
The recycling of current account and/or financial account surpluses through the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves by emerging countries after the 1999-2001 crisis, particularly by China, has been described as “smoking but not inhaling in international financial markets”.
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TTIP is about regulatory coherence
Post, December 8, 2014By Lionel Fontagné, Sébastien Jean
The TTIP has become a full-blown political issue as the two largest economic entities in the world are negotiating a deep integration agreement, going beyond what has been done previously in any agreement except the EU’s Single Market.
Purchases of sovereign bonds: the ECB confronted with the heterogeneity of the Euro area
Post, December 4, 2014By Urszula Szczerbowicz
The ECB has confirmed its determination to counter the risk of deflation in the eurozone by evoking the possibility of sovereign bond purchases, but is confronted once again with the heterogeneity of the area. The need for compromise could jeopardize the effectiveness of its action.
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The delusion of State guarantees
Post, October 3, 2014By Natacha Valla
European policymakers are currently busy addressing two issues: moribund investment and banks on extended sick leave. Some observers might be tempted to segregate these issues. While investment would be in the remit of States, the financial health of our economies would be under the responsibility of the ECB alone.
Reforming the European Investment Bank: a New Architecture for Public Investment in Europe
Post, July 30, 2014By Natacha Valla
Some five years after the severe recession of 2009, private sector investment in Europe is still dangerously sluggish. And public investment has been cut further, reinforcing a long term downward trend. At a mere 2% of GDP, it has halved over thirty years.
China’s Roadmap to Harmonious Society
Post, June 12, 2014By Michel Aglietta, Guo Bai
CEPII launches its third Policy Brief: “China’s Roadmap to Harmonious Society. Third Plenum Decisions on ‘major issues concerning comprehensively deepening reforms’.”
The euro area urgently needs a Federal Investment Fund (not a budget)
Post, April 9, 2014By Natacha Valla
The decline in investment rates in the euro area following the global financial crisis has been sharp. And it looks as though it will not reverse significantly. Rebooting investment and channeling investable funds to the right places on the continent is therefore a major challenge for policy makers.
Euro area: deflation is the wrong debate
Post, March 6, 2014By Natacha Valla
For a fact, measures of headline consumer price inflation have decelerated sharply over the recent past. At 0.8-1%; inflation hovers around levels that are clearly below the ECB’s flagship 2% medium-term objective.
The French should care about Karlsruhe
Post, February 12, 2014By Natacha Valla
Strikingly, the debate about the Feb 7 ruling of the German Constitutional Court against the ECB’s flagship OMT programme has gone almost unnoticed in France. This is wrong. The French should care about it.
Swapmania
Post, December 9, 2013By Christophe Destais
Currency swaps between central banks are quickly emerging as a key feature of the international monetary system.
Negative interest rate on bank deposits at the central bank: an option for the ECB?
Post, November 27, 2013By Urszula Szczerbowicz
For a long time considered as impossible to implement, the negative interest rates on deposits of commercial banks at the central bank is now often mentioned as an option for the European Central Bank (ECB).
WTO: Rethinking the special and differential treatment granted to developing countries
Post, October 8, 2013By Sébastien Jean
The special and differential treatment granted to developing countries, a key principle in the multilateral trading system, now appears broken-down. Based on a speech given at the WTO Forum, this post reviews -with a focus on agriculture- why this is so and what could be done.
Significant economic gains could be achieved through a transatlantic trade partnership
Post, September 23, 2013By Lionel Fontagné, Julien Gourdon, Sébastien Jean
CEPII launches its first Policy Brief “Transatlantic Trade: Whither Partnership, Which Economic Consequences?” which examines the stakes and potential impacts of a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership.
Emerging turbulences
Post, September 10, 2013By Christophe Destais
The current turmoil in emerging capital markets is the result of a classical reversal of market sentiment after an excess of optimism. There are good reasons for being cautiously optimistic but uncertainties remain.
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Is the Eurozone really a monetary union? (2/2)
Post, July 3, 2013By Christophe Destais
In the United States, the regional Federal Reserve Banks (FRBs) are de facto subsidiaries of the central Federal Reserve Board. The claims and the debts between FRBs are settled through a transfer of assets which is actually a simple accounting arrangement.
Is the Eurozone really a monetary union? (1/2)
Post, July 1, 2013By Christophe Destais
Central banks in the Eurozone have accumulated claims and debts between themselves. These "Target 2 imbalances" substituted for the outstanding between private entities, in particular for the interbank loans and there is no mechanism to settle them. Should the Eurozone burst, they would become due.
The banking union needs a guarantor of last resort
Post, June 17, 2013By Christophe Destais
Governments act as guarantors of last resort of the financial system, as evidenced during the crises of the past 6 years. It will remain true in the future, even if a better regulation and the bailing in financial institutions by their creditors allow to better circumventing the risks born by the taxpayers.
Fast rising inequality in China: what can be done about it?
Post, May 15, 2013By Guanghua Wan
As remarkable as its economic growth, China’s income distribution has been worsening since mid-1980s. Inequality across regions, occupations and between individual all rose dramatically. More importantly, it did so in a short time.
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Challenges ahead for the next WTO DG
Post, May 2, 2013By Sébastien Jean
The WTO is going through a leadership transition as after 8 years, the incumbent Director-General steps down on September 1, 2013. What are the challenges ahead for Pascal Lamy’s successor? The next DG will certainly have to take the Doha loss and move toward an updated multilateral trading system.
Round-tripping of Russian foreign investment via Cyprus
Post, March 18, 2013By Olena Havrylchyk, Svetlana Ledyaeva
The design of the recent bailout package for Cyprus preserves the offshore banking status that is used by Russian depositors and round-trip investors. Is it worth it?
IMF Quota Formula Review: still a long way to go
Post, February 20, 2013By Christophe Destais
On January 30, 2013, the IMF Executive Board issued a short report on the outcome of its discussion regarding the quota formula review. Judging from the extent of remaining disagreement, the objective of completing the review by 2013 is not met and there is still a long way to go.
Monetary policy in exceptional times
Post, January 31, 2013By Urszula Szczerbowicz
The last 5 years have been a major challenge for the theory and practice of monetary policy. The key channel of conventional monetary policy has been severely impaired and the target policy rates in some countries have approached zero.
Sébastien Jean was appointed director of CEPII
Post, December 18, 2012By CEPII
Par arrêté du Premier ministre en date du 18 décembre 2012, M. Sébastien JEAN est nommé directeur du Centre d’études prospectives et d’informations internationales.
Ending the euro area crisis: crossing the river by feeling the stones
Post, December 13, 2012By Benjamin Carton, Christophe Destais, Sophie Piton, Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Yves-Emmanuel Bara
Europeans face a fourfold crisis: a sovereign debt crisis, a banking crisis, a competitiveness crisis and a crisis of governance. CEPII's first Policy Paper highlight the key issues that need to be addressed for a comprehensive solution to be found.
The interbank market one year after Mario Draghi presidency at the ECB
Post, November 19, 2012By Urszula Szczerbowicz
Restoring the smooth functioning of the interbank markets was a key objective for Mario Draghi when he became president of the ECB. One year and two LTROs later, the ECB reached its target.
Six pack: the case for a simplified scoreboard
Post, November 14, 2012By Laurence Nayman, Sophie Piton, Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
In December 2011, the ‘six pack’ introduced a new surveillance procedure of macroeconomic imbalances at the European level. However, the ten indicators used for the early warning of imbalances do not seem much more relevant than the simple indicator of the current account balance.
Importing intermediate goods to foster French firms’ productivity and exports
Post, October 15, 2012By Maria Bas, Vanessa Strauss-Khan
International trade plays a key role in technological diffusion. In a recent work, we show how firms can improve their competitiveness and export performance through importing more varieties of high quality or lower cost intermediate goods.
Institutional reform and democracy in Georgia 9 years after the “Rose revolution”
Post, October 4, 2012By Olena Havrylchyk
On October 2, Mikheil Saakashvili – who has led the “Rose Revolution” in Georgia in 2003 and has been president since 2004 – admitted defeat of his party in Georgia's parliamentary election against Bidzina Ivanishvili.
Financial development in India and firms’ growth
Facts & Figures, September 21, 2012By Maria Bas, Antoine Berthou
The banking reforms that took place in India in the mid 90s have improved the availability of credit. However, the effects of financial development on firms’ growth appear to be unequal depending on their characteristics. Where are the gains from credit expansion concentrated?
Single bells: single market, single currency, single supervisor, single resolution mechanism
Post, September 14, 2012By Olena Havrylchyk
On 12 of September, the European Commission (EC) has unveiled its proposal that shifts banking supervision to the European level, giving sweeping supervisory powers to the ECB.
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Internal devaluation: nothing but sweat and tears?
Post, August 7, 2012By Sophie Piton, Yves-Emmanuel Bara
The Lettre du CEPII No. 324 shows that internal devaluation strategies in Latvia and in Ireland produced only limited adjustments at the price of considerable social costs.
International migration and the new role of preferential trade agreements
Facts & Figures, July 17, 2012By Gianluca Orefice
An international organization (uniquely) in charge of managing international migration flows is missing. However recent Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) include migration related provisions able to manage migration flows. Further, the signature of a PTA itself boosts bilateral migration flows.
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The case for the ECB sovereign bonds purchases
Post, July 10, 2012By Urszula Szczerbowicz
On Thursday July 5th the ECB decided to cut its main refinancing rate to 0.75%, for the first time crossing the historical low of 1%. More importantly, it reduced the overnight deposit facility rate to 0%. In doing so, the ECB encouraged banks to transform the liquidity received via two 3-year LTROs into credit to companies and households, instead of keeping it at the ECB deposit facility.
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China cannot achieve the internationalization of its currency without making it fully convertible
Post, July 2, 2012By Christophe Destais
Although it is not advertised on its website, the Paris branch of the Bank of China is now offering its customers residing in France to open an account in Renminbi (RMB), the Chinese currency. This is a modest but symbolic advance of the big maneuvers that have taken place for the past two years around the currency of the second world economy.
Eurobonds: a way to act swiftly
Post, June 5, 2012By Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
The Eurozone is facing three intertwined and mutually reinforcing crises: a sovereign debt glut, banks’ financial fragility and dampened growth prospects. Further fiscal and political integration seems to be the only way to address these issues.
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High and volatile commodity prices weight heavily on the overall economy
Post, May 28, 2012By Valérie Mignon, Sophie Piton
Commodity markets have recently been at the center of the world economic concerns: their increasing prices and high volatility frighten. A special issue of International Economics focuses on explaining the recent developments on commodity markets.
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Natural Resources: a key challenge in regional integration of the Middle East and North Africa region
Post, May 22, 2012By Julien Gourdon, Céline Carrère, Marcelo Olarreaga
The slow progress of regional integration efforts in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region could be explained by the reluctance of resource-rich countries to deepen trade agreements which hurt them.
Revising CEPII World Growth Projections to 2050: Focus on Education and Female Participation to the Labor Force
Facts & Figures, April 23, 2012By Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Lionel Fontagné, Jean Fouré
In a previous post, the CEPII presented its World Growth Projections to 2050. This article focuses on two themes that were not addressed yet: Education and Female Participation to the Labor Force.
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Trade liberalization in the services sectors: a promising competitiveness policy for European countries
Post, April 19, 2012By Cristina Mitaritonna, Matthieu Crozet
In France, like in most Western European countries, the debate on competitiveness is entirely focused on manufacturing industries. The case of services sectors remains in the shadows, even though they undoubtedly are an important source of employment and constitute a clear comparative advantage.
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Don’t let the Eurozone crisis go East
Post, April 4, 2012By Asia-Europe Economic Forum
The eurozone crisis presents a risk for Asian economies. Mainly, the crisis could spread through trade and various financial channels.Yet, economic impact of spillovers is not the only reason why Asia has a specific interest in the survival of the euro.
Le Blog du CEPII : the latest international economic trends analyzed by CEPII's economists
Post, February 17, 2012By Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, CEPII's Director, introduces the Blog du CEPII.
The Great Shift: Macroeconomic Projections for the World Economy at the 2050 Horizon
Post, February 10, 2012By Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Lionel Fontagné, Jean Fouré
The CEPII recently revisited its projections for the world economy in 2050. The great shift in economic power to the emerging countries seems to be accelerating. By 2050, China would represent one-third of the world economy, more than the European Union, the United States, India and Japan all together.
The fate of Europe. Collapse or federation.
Audio, January 18, 2012By Michel Aglietta
In his new book, Michel Aglietta explains how Europe reached a critical point and suggests solutions to the challenges met by the eurozone.
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Any progress towards the Single Market could improve substantially EU growth path for the years to come
Post, January 15, 2012By CEPII
The European Union has always relied first and foremost on a gradual economic integration process. The current euro-zone crisis casts serious doubts on the benefits of such integration. Assessing its economic benefits is therefore central to measuring the overall benefits the European Union (EU) provides to its citizens.
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The international monetary system needs the euro
Post, January 12, 2012By Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
With the survival of the euro area at stake, and the reform of the international monetary system no longer a priority of the G20 presidency, it may seem strange to call for an increased international role of the euro.
China in the WTO: an assessment
Post, December 22, 2011By Françoise Lemoine
China joined the WTO in December 2001. China and its partners had been negotiating the conditions of its accession since 1987 with two fundamental goals: integrate China into the global economy and anchor the process of domestic economic reforms and opening up.
The Twin Sovereign and Banking Crisis in the Euro Area
Post, December 19, 2011By Michel Aglietta
Europe’s banking system has been in a continuous stage of systemic fragility since the beginning of the financial crisis in 2007-08. The present phase is a two-way process of sovereign and banking crises feeding one another.
International specialization: a focus on services
Facts & Figures, December 19, 2011By Colette Herzog, Deniz Ünal
The specialization of countries in international trade reveals their comparative advantages and disadvantages. The CHELEM database which provides complete and consistent statistics classified by country in the long term is used to analyze the structural aspect of the competitiveness of nations in all economic sectors, namely the primary sector, industry and services.
CEPII's Well Being Indicator
Facts & Figures, December 19, 2011By Michel Fouquin
Although economists have long stressed the limitations of using GDP to evaluate standards of living, the debate was recently reignited by the publication of the Stiglitz report. The CEPII has proposed to calculate an indicator for the year 2009 and 34 countries incorporating certain social data items in terms of income equivalents.
