MaGE is a macroeconometric model of the world economy made for projecting the global shifts of current century. It is based on a three-factor production function of labour, capital and energy, plus two forms of technological progress, we propose a long-run growth scenario for 147 countries and a time horizon of 2050 relying on the model MaGE (Macroeconometrics of the Global Economy). Our model is fitted with United Nations and International Labour Office labour projections, and econometric estimations of (i) capital accumulation, (ii) savings rate, (iii) relationship between savings and investment rate, (iv) education, (v) female participation, and (vi) technological progress (which  includes energy and total f actor productivity). Our study provides five novelties. First, we account for energy constraints by including its consumption in the production function and by taking account of rents accruing to oil exporting countries. Second, we estimate a non-unitary relationship between savings and investment, departing from assumptions of either a closed economy or full capital mobility. Third, we model female participation rates consistently with education catch-up. Fourth, we account for the 2008-09 global crisis by initialising our projection model in 2013 while relying on IMF short-term forecasts between 2010 and 2012. Finally, we disentangle real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates from relative price effects through a consistent Balassa-Samuelson effect.

The default output of MaGE is available as the BASELINE database

• Share – copy, distribute and transmit the work
• Remix – adapt the work
  
  

• Attribution – You must attribute the work by citing the reference document

Jean FOURE, Agnès BENASSY-QUERE & Lionel FONTAGNE (2012), The Great Shift: Macroeconomic Projections for the World Economy at the 2050 Horizon, CEPII Working paper 2012-03.

• Noncommercial – You may not use this work for commercial purposes.

More information at http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/deed.en_US