CEPII, Recherche et Expertise sur l'economie mondiale
The tale of two international phenomena: International migration and global imbalances


Dramane Coulibaly
Blaise Gnimassoun
Valérie Mignon

 Highlights :
  • We investigate the relationship between international migration and global imbalances for a panel of 157 developed and developing countries over the period 1990-2014.
  • An increase in migration improves national savings and the current account balance in the destination country, while it has opposite impacts in the origin country.
  • These effects are particularly acute in developing economies, explaining the structural current account defcits that most of them face.

 Résumé :
Following the dynamics of globalization, international migration has increased dramatically since the 1990s. Given that these migrations may obscure the natural demographic structure of nations, they are likely to explain a signifcant part of global imbalances. This paper tackles this issue by investigating the role played by international migration in the dynamics of global imbalances. To this end, we rely on an overlapping generations model to derive the theoretical relationship between international migration and current account position. Through a series of robust estimates, we empirically investigate this relationship by relying on a panel of 157 developed and developing countries over the period 1990-2014. Our results point to substantial effects of international migration. Specifcally, we show that an increase in migration improves national savings and the current account balance in the destination country, while it has opposite impacts in the origin country. These effects are particularly pronounced in developing economies, and attenuated by migrants' remittances.

 Mots-clés : International Migration | Current Account | Global Imbalances | Remittances

 JEL : F22, F32, O55, C33
CEPII Working Paper
N°2018-02, March 2018

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 Domaines d'expertise

Monnaie & Finance
Migrations
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