CEPII, Recherche et Expertise sur l'economie mondiale
The Impact of Offshoring and Migration Policies on Migration Flows


Cosimo Beverelli
Gianluca Orefice
Nadia Rocha

 Highlights :
  • We develop and empirically test a trade-in-tasks model on the effects of migration and offshoring policies on employment of migrant workers. Namely, we test whether there is substitutability between migrant and offshore workers and whether there is migration diversion across developing countries.
  • We find empirical evidence of the substitutability between migration and offshoring and of the absence of migration diversion effects.
  • When migration and offshoring policies are implemented at the same time, the overall effect on bilateral migration flows is null.

 Abstract :
In a theoretical framework that extends Ottaviano et al. (2013) to three countries, we investigate two research questions. First, whether offshore workers directly compete with migrants from the same origin country to perform tasks of low/medium complexity (migration-offshoring substitutability). Second, whether migrants from different origin countries compete among each other (migration diversion). These questions are addressed empirically using a dataset covering 28 OECD high-income countries (as destinations of migrants flows) and 144 non high-income countries (as origins of migrant flows) for the period 1996-2010. The empirical results suggest strong direct substitutability between migrant and offshore workers from the same origin country and the absence of policy driven migration diversion across different origin countries.

 Keywords : Migrant Employment | Migration-Offshoring Substitutability | Migration Diversion

 JEL : F22, F23
CEPII Working Paper
N°2016-21, September 2016

 Domaines d'expertise
Migrations
Commerce & Mondialisation

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