International Economics

<< N°172

  N°172  
Issue Q3 2022  
To consolidate or not to consolidate? A multi-step analysis to assess needed fiscal sustainability  
António Afonso
José Alves
João Tovar Jalles
 
We assess a country's specific need (or its absence) to implement a fiscal consolidation programme by focusing specifically on its degree of success, notably in terms of fiscal sustainability. The “need” to consolidate is based on having a primary balance above or below the debt-stabilizing primary balance (provided by the IMF's Debt Sustainability Analysis) for each country. We then link the need for and the actual (historical) existence of fiscal adjustments to their sustainability impact. Looking at a large sample of developed and developing economies over the period 1980–2018, we find that, on average, there is a higher need for consolidations in advanced economies than in developing economies. In addition, implementating a fiscal consolidation program implies an improvement in the degree of public finances' sustainability for advanced and developing economies. Finally, fiscal sustainability deteriorates when the need to implement a fiscal retrenchment arises.
Abstract

   
Fiscal consolidations ; Cyclically-adjusted primary balance ; Sustainability ; Panel data ; Time-varying ; Keywords
C23 ; E21 ; E62 ; H5 ; H62 ; JEL classification
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