International Economics

<< N°172

  N°172  
Issue Q3 2022  
Eurobonds, debt sustainability and macroeconomic performance in Africa: Synthetic control experiments  
Chuku Chuku
Mustafa Yasin Yenice
 
There has been a strong wave of Eurobond issuances by Africa's frontier market economies since the start of the century. But it is not clear how these issuances have affected economic performance. This paper uses synthetic control experiments to conduct comparative case study analyses of the impacts of Eurobond issuances on economic growth, debt sustainability, and domestic capital markets. Ex post, we compare the trajectories of the relevant macroeconomic outcomes against their synthetically constructed business-as-usual counterfactual in an environment with no Eurobond issuance. The results show that, on average, sovereign Eurobond issuances have led to improvements in per capita GDP in Africa by about 10 percent above the counterfactual, business-as-usual scenario. Although most issuances were within 3 percent of GDP, they potentially led to about 13 percentage point acceleration in the debt-to-GDP ratios after ten years, compared to the counterfactual. Public capital accumulation is, on average, faster in the first two to three years following an issuance in countries with positive correlations.
Abstract

   
Eurobonds ; Debt sustainability ; Synthetic control experiments ; Africa ; Keywords
J34 ; F43 ; G15 ; JEL classification
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