Speaker: Stefan Avdjiev 
Senior Economist, 
Deputy Head of International Banking and Financial Statistics
Monetary and Economic Department
Bank for International Settlements
 

Moderator:

Anne-Laure Delatte
Deputy Director of the CEPII

In the framework of a research seminar organised by the CEPII to offer insights into recent academic works, Stefan AVDJIEV will present his co-authored paper (available here) tackling the key role of capital flows in the transmission of real and financial shocks across countries, and the international allocation of global risk.  
 
While empirical work on capital inflows and outflows by sector remains rare, the authors constructed the first comprehensive dataset providing such large country and year coverage and showing quarterly gross capital inflows for a balanced panel of 85 countries including 25 advanced, 34 emerging and 26 developing economies during 1996-2014. The presentation will also provide an overview of the sectoral breakdown that splits debt inflows into four borrowing sectors: government, central banks, banks and corporates. Using new data, the paper presents dynamic and cross sectional patterns in capital inflows as a function of global push factors and countries’ own business cycles.
 
Finally, the presentation will demonstrate the paper’s conclusions highlighting the importance of separating capital flows by borrower type for understanding potential systemic risks related to capital flows. The research results also bring forth the difficulty of establishing robust stylised facts about capital flows’ dynamics in a mixed sample of emerging and advanced countries.