Points clés :
Résumé :
This paper studies the behavior of euro area asset market co-movements during the period 2010-2014, through the lens of a DSGE model. The economy is a two-country world consisting of a core and a periphery and featuring an international banking sector, international equity markets, home bias in sovereign bond holdings, and sovereign default. The periphery is buffeted by a sovereign risk shock, whose process is estimated from the data. The model accounts successfully for the divergence in core-periphery correlations between stock and sovereign bond returns. The simulation results indicate that the sovereign risk shock explains 50% of the increase in sovereign and loandeposit spreads, and 8% of the decrease in global output during the sovereign debt crisis.
Mots-clés : Currency Union | International Financial Markets | Sovereign Risk | General Equilibrium
JEL : F41, F44, G15
- We study the behavior of euro area asset markets from a macroeconomic perspective.
- We explain the transmission mechanisms that determine the divergence in core and periphery stock-bond returns' comovements during the period 2010-2014.
- We build a DSGE model for the euro area with a banking sector and international asset markets and we estimate sovereign risk from the data.
- The model buffeted by this shock is able to reconcile the empirical evidence on economic and finance dynamics during the sovereign debt crisis.
Résumé :
This paper studies the behavior of euro area asset market co-movements during the period 2010-2014, through the lens of a DSGE model. The economy is a two-country world consisting of a core and a periphery and featuring an international banking sector, international equity markets, home bias in sovereign bond holdings, and sovereign default. The periphery is buffeted by a sovereign risk shock, whose process is estimated from the data. The model accounts successfully for the divergence in core-periphery correlations between stock and sovereign bond returns. The simulation results indicate that the sovereign risk shock explains 50% of the increase in sovereign and loandeposit spreads, and 8% of the decrease in global output during the sovereign debt crisis.
Mots-clés : Currency Union | International Financial Markets | Sovereign Risk | General Equilibrium
JEL : F41, F44, G15
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