CEPII, Recherche et Expertise sur l'economie mondiale
Covid 19: a new challenge for the EMU


Anne-Laure Delatte
Alexis Guillaume

 Points clés :
  • We estimate the determinants of sovereign bond spreads in the Euro Area during the pandemic from January 2 2020 to May 26 2020.
  • We create a balanced data panel including sanitary, financial and macroeconomic variables for 13 EA members and we construct original variables to capture the different common policy announcements and the monetary and financial assistance packages.
  • We find that resiliency to COVID shock depended on initial fiscal situation, robustness of the banking sector and healthcare capacity.
  • We find differentiated contribution of policy announcements, monetary and financial programs on largely indebted countries.

 Résumé :
Although the pandemic was an exogenous shock, it triggered portfolio rebalancing in the Euro Area (EA) implying a divergence of sovereign risk premia in the first phase of the crisis eventually followed by a narrowing of the spreads. We estimate the determinants of sovereign bond spreads in the EA during the pandemic from January 2 2020 to May 25 2020. We find that: 1) the countries’ resilience to the COVID shock depended on healthcare capacity, the strength of the banking sector and the fiscal outlook; 2) during the crisis, ECB speeches were a game changer and made a much greater contribution than securities purchase programs; 3) coordination by the European Council also helped to reduce the spreads but the effect was partly offset by loan-based financial assistance programs.


 Mots-clés : Sovereign Risk | European Monetary Union | Covid | Public Policy

 JEL : F30, F45, H63
CEPII Working Paper
N°2020-08, July 2020

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