There is wide disagreement about the nature of the eurozone crisis. Some say that it is driven by fiscal indiscipline, some by fiscal austerity, some emphasize excessive private leverage, while others focus on external imbalances, sudden stops or competitiveness divergence due to fixed exchange rates.

Thomas Philippon comes to CEPII to present his latest paper (co-written with Philippe Martin) that provides a comprehensive account of the dynamics of Eurozone countries from the creation of the Euro to the Great recession and proposes a simple model that focuses on three types of shocks: household leverage, fiscal policy, interest rate spreads and exports. His paper will be discussed by Jean Barthémémy.