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USA-EU trade dashboard 


While the United States are intensifying tariff measures, find the main data on trade between the European Union and the United States on our new dashboard: bilateral trade balance, composition of trade in goods and services, trade exposures by sector, trade protection, dependencies, as well as our main publications on the topic. Continue reading >>


 
Trade & Globalization
Competitiveness & Growth
Emerging Countries
Environment & Natural Resources
Europe
Migrations
Money & Finance
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LE Graphique – THE Chart
International insecurity can severely disrupt trade. This Working Paper studies treaties aimed at preventing such insecurity: military alliances. The author develops a quantitative model of trade with endogenous international insecurity, where alliances affect trade flows by reducing the risk of violent expropriation faced by firms. Taking a structural gravity approach, he shows that alliances increase trade by 66% on average. The effects of military alliances are dynamic and heterogeneous. They depend to a large extent on the type of alliance and the economic size of partners. An instrumental variable strategy and an event study confirm the causal interpretation of the results. Investigating the mechanism behind the impacts of military alliances, the paper demonstrates that alliances increase trade by reducing international insecurity. Moreover, employing the full scope of our theoretical model, a general equilibrium analysis shows that the growth in trade generated by military alliances brings substantial welfare gains for signatories and losses for non-aligned countries. Continue reading >>

Analysis and debates



This recent Working Paper introduces a base-peak load structure to electricity modeling in large-scale CGE models to better capture merit order dispatch, capacity constraints and renewable intermittency. A transparent toy model demonstrates how ignoring peak load constraints systematically underestimates the macroeconomic impacts of energy shocks. The authors argue that second-order approximation are not well-suited for this kind of exercise, due to the large size of the shock compared to the value of the elasticity of substitution. The authors treat base load and peak load electricity as non-substitutable Leontief complements, reflecting operational constraints in electricity systems. Applying the refined model to the 2022 Russian gas shock reveals larger GDP and welfare losses in Germany and the EU than standard electricity representations predict. Continue reading >>

Publications
L’émergence de l’extrême droite façonne-t-elle le positionnement des partis traditionnels sur la question migratoire ?

Les instruments de l’évitement fiscal des multinationales

Avis de tempêtes : l’ombre des tensions géopolitiques sur le commerce international

Sovereign Gravity: The Military Alliance Effect on Trade

Air Service Agreements, Connectivity and Emissions

What if? Revisiting the Macroeconomic Impact of the Energy Crisis with Peak-load Electricity

What Strategy Should the European Union Adopt in the Face of US Protectionism?

Working Around Sanctions. What Cost to Russia?

Trump 2.0 Tariffs: What Cost for the World Economy?

Health Products in International Trade: a Full-Fledged Industry Grouping

CEPII Region Profiles: indicators, databases and classifications

CEPII Country Profiles: indicators, databases and classifications


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Coming Events

Presentation of the CEPII's annual publication "The World Economy 2027"
September 9, 2026


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Past Events







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