Nonlinear Adjustment of the Real Exchange Rate Towards its Equilibrium Value: a Panel Smooth Transition Error Correction Modelling
Sophie Béreau
Antonia Lopez Villavicencio
Valérie Mignon
Highlights :
Sophie Béreau
Antonia Lopez Villavicencio
Valérie Mignon
Abstract :
We study the nonlinear dynamics of the real exchange rate towards its behavioral equilibrium value (BEER) using a Panel Smooth Transition Regression model framework.We show that the real exchange rate convergence process in the long run is characterized by nonlinearities for emerging economies, whereas industrialized countries exhibit a linear pattern. Moreover, there exists an asymmetric behavior of the real exchange rate when facing an over- or an undervaluation of the domestic currency. Finally, our results suggest that the real exchange rate is unable to unwind alone global imbalances.
Keywords : Equilibrium exchange rate | BEER model | Panel smooth transition regression | Panel vector error correction model
JEL : F31, C23
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