CEPII, Recherche et Expertise sur l'economie mondiale
Reasons Behind Words: OPEC Narratives and the Oil Market


Celso Brunetti
Marc Joëts
Valérie Mignon

 Highlights :
  • The content of OPEC communications and its impact on the oil market are analyzed.
  • OPEC narratives are highly linked to oil market volatility and traders’ positions.
  • OPEC communication is credible, reduces oil price volatility, and prompts market participants to rebalance their positions.

 Abstract :
We analyze the content of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) communications and whether it provides valuable information to the crude oil market. To this end, we derive an empirical strategy which allows us to measure OPEC’s public signal and test its credibility. Using Structural Topic Models, we identify in OPEC narratives several topics related to fundamental factors such as demand, supply, and speculative activity in the crude oil market, highlighting that OPEC announcements are highly linked to oil market volatility and traders’ positions. Most importantly, we find that OPEC communication is credible, reduces oil price volatility, and prompts market participants to rebalance their positions.


 Keywords : OPEC Announcements | Structural Topic Models | Volatility | Traders’ Positions

 JEL : G10, Q35, Q40, C45, C50
CEPII Working Paper
N°2023-19, September 2023

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